Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 81
Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” requires a “Creative Ordinate Omnipresent Leader (COOL)” with a creative mind ordinate by God who is omnipresent and leads such that the actual “Truth” will ultimately set everyone free.
In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to identify individuals contaminated with “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” as a by product of significant change.
It is important for organizations to acknowledge that during periods of change, the greatest risk to successful change is posed by contamination of the mass with “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” as opposed to a “Creative Ordinate Omnipresent Leader (COOL) Syndrome”.
In this New World Order (NWO) where there are persistent changes, be it through mergers and acquisitions or restructurings and reorganizations, the only constant which is assured over time is that of change. In order to be able to compete in this New World Order (NWO), there is one of two generic techniques.
The first technique which I refer to as “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” is predicated on the notion that when one feels threatened, in either fact or appearance, of losing their job, their home, their family, their wealth or any other “Raison D’Être”, one’s innate savage survival instincts tend to kick in, whereby one becomes frustrated with the change, to the point that one can become foolish to the point of creating fictitious observations in order to orchestrate a revolution of losers against the Change.
For example, if one feels uncomfortable with the Change Leader because the proposed changes are contrary to one’s personal preferences, one may commence to twist, turn and manipulate everything that the Change Leader says and does into something perverse, inappropriate or inacceptable in order to take the Change Leader out when in actuality one has entered into the “Protect My Ass” bout.
Taking this example one step further, when one person starts to have foolish orchestrating observations due to their “Protect My Ass” bout, there tends to be a spread like bacteria of everybody commencing to twist, turn and manipulate everything in order to protect their own to the point that Legalized Mob Gangster CLICKS are formed and the “Truth” does not exist anymore.
Taking this example to the extreme, when everybody within an organization has entered into the “Protect My Ass” bout and then brought their entire families, race, religion and culture into the fight, forget about trying to determine who is wrong or right.
That is, once the “Truth” has been smeared by everyone having entered into the “Protect My Ass” bout, there is no longer any trust, any honesty, or any integrity such that not even “Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau” could figure out the “Truth” as everyone has twisted, turned and manipulated all facts and circumstances to protect their own, to the point that everybody seems to have gone mad, such that every bodies behaviours have become bad.
As is evident from my Hyperboles above, this type of approach is destructive, counterproductive and chaotic by its nature. For the record, Hyperbole is defined as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. Hyperboles may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create strong impressions but they are not meant to be taken literally.
Now I would like to focus on the second technique which I refer to as “Creative Ordinate Omnipresent Leader (COOL) Syndrome” whereby one does not need to revert to a barbaric “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” approach because one has a creative mind ordinate by God who is omnipresent and leads such that the actual “Truth” itself will ultimately set everyone free.
In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome” requires a “Creative Ordinate Omnipresent Leader (COOL)” with a creative mind ordinate by God who is omnipresent and leads such that the actual “Truth” will ultimately set everyone free.
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Foolish Observations Orchestrating Losers (FOOL) Syndrome?”
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 286” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby everybody now focuses on what have you done for my personal, financial and political interests lately as to the extent you support my enemies, you become my opposition such that the enemy of my enemy now becomes my friend transcending all traditional notions of family and friends, as even so-called family and friends will now throw you in front of a firing squad if it benefits their primary interests, such that not even family and friends can be trusted as when push comes to shove even they will choose to support their primary beneficial interests such that history is irrelevant while current choices made are interest based prevalent such that there is no more loyalty, faithfulness or devotion but only strategic alliances according to current perspectives on who best serves my immediate needs, goals and objectives.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY sees the quest by the KURDS, who are spread out in TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAN and IRAQ, to establish an independent homeland as a threat to TURKISH territorial integrity and therefore TURKEY has long warned that TURKEY will not tolerate KURDISH YPG control of the TURKISH border with SYRIA. In my opinion, this weeks attacks by the TURKISH Army on QOUDAH QAWI in north-western AFRIN and JANADARIS in the southwest of AFRIN by deploying elite troops reportedly specialized in urban warfare to storm the KURDISH YPG positions demonstrates beyond a shadow of a doubt that the TURKISH military will not relent in its goal to liberate the border region between TURKEY and SYRIA currently controlled by the KURDISH YPG by sheer military force.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slamming the U.S. for their support for the KURDISH YPG fighters in northern SYRIA while warning the U.S. that TURKEY also anticipates striking the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ so that the U.S. troops stationed there need to get out of the TURKISH forces way, the U.S. has reiterated that it has no plans to withdraw U.S. forces from MANBIJ such that it would be sheer insanity for the TURKISH forces to strike the U.S. and its partners in SYRIA who have clearly stated that they would strike back if attacked and fight back aggressively in order to defend themselves. In my opinion, the TURKISH move into northern SYRIA undermines the larger fight against ISIS, as the end of major combat operations does not mean the achievement of the enduring defeat of ISIS. However, this reflects the new geopolitical realities whereby the NATO Alliance is in jeopardy of falling apart as the current tensions between the U.S. and TURKEY will most likely result in TURKEY breaking away or being pushed out of NATO. In my opinion, this would dramatically affect the security and stability of the whole region and beyond in the face of a weakened and divided NATO community. Furthermore, this would most likely benefit RUSSIA’s ability to manipulate the Middle East and the Baltics much more effectively. In my opinion, it would then be very difficult for NATO to defend the interests of Baltic countries from MOLDOVA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA and others who still aspire for democratic gains and national sovereignty while limiting the abilities of Baltic countries to join the EU and NATO. Therefore, at this stage, it appears that TURKEY has lost its broader strategic picture that brought the U.S. and TURKEY together in the aftermath of World War II that was to defend national sovereignty against expansionist powers and to promote democratic governance. However, the current tensions between the U.S. and TURKEY perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby everybody now focuses on what have you done for my personal, financial and political interests lately as to the extent you support my enemies, you become my opposition such that the enemy of my enemy now becomes my friend transcending all traditional notions of family and friends, as even so-called family and friends will now throw you in front of a firing squad if it benefits their primary interests, such that not even family and friends can be trusted as when push comes to shove even they will choose to support their primary beneficial interests such that history is irrelevant while current choices made are interest based prevalent such that there is no more loyalty, faithfulness or devotion but only strategic alliances according to current perspectives on who best serves my immediate needs, goals and objectives.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s international donors pledge of $ 30 billion dollars to help IRAQ rebuild out of a total of $ 100 billion needed does represent the first step in the right direction of helping to rebuild IRAQ’s destroyed homes, schools and hospitals, as well as reviving its demolished infrastructure and economy following the fight against ISIS. Unfortunately for IRAQ, I believe that the funding shortfall is due to IRAQ’s poor financial reputation as corruption has been a major concern in IRAQ’s quest to raise funds because last year IRAQ ranked 166 out of 176 nations that were found to be corrupt according to the annual Corruption Perceptions Index released by advocacy group Transparency International. Although IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had previously vowed that the IRAQI government would work towards combatting corruption and bureaucracy in IRAQ, the true test lies in seeing how many of the promised reforms and oversight mechanisms get enacted and implemented in IRAQ this year.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS. In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s announcement by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian that the reconstruction plan of IRAQ should cover all IRAQI provinces and regions including the KURDISTAN region should be welcomed with open arms. However, the key issue that needs to be resolved consists of the IRAQI heads of government meeting as set to discuss the overdue 2018 budget bill amid repeated boycotts by KURDISH MP’s to block what they perceive as an illegal and unconstitutional spending bill. In my opinion, the IRAQI President Fuad Masum, a KURD from the PUK, is the guardian of the IRAQI constitution such that he needs to step up to the plate and show a clear position regarding violations and mockery of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. In my opinion, KURDISH MP’s boycotted the last parliament meetings because Kurdish MP’s have a number of concerns, notably decreasing the KURDISTAN Regional Government’s budget share from 17 to 12.6 percent which the KURDS perceive as the IRAQI government trying to cut the KURDISH livelihoods through political coercion.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with vengeance as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. In my opinion, in an unusual twist of fate, SYRIA’s deputy foreign minister called on KURDS and ARABS in AFRIN to unite against TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch as Deputy Minister Fayssal Mikdad clearly stated that AFRIN is an integral party of the SYRIAN Arab Republic such that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will defend every inch of the SYRIAN territory including downing any jet that launches an assault on SYRIA such that the KURDS and the SAA look ready, willing and able to fight TURKEY in unison. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG have their hands tied as the U.S. is unable to provide back-up and support as the U.S. does not want to go to war with TURKEY such that the only other viable alternative is for the SAA air force backing to block the TURKISH incursion into SYRIA. In my opinion, it is better for the KURDISH YPG to turn to the SAA as a viable alternative for backing in AFRIN given that the U.S. is unable to provide any military intervention, as the U.S. should not be pulled into another war in SYRIA, as TURKEY is not ISIS such that TURKEY will not resort to massacres like ISIS to conquer territory in SYRIA. Therefore, on a purely strategic military basis, the KURDISH YPG have no other choice than to fight alongside the SAA to kick TURKEY out of SYRIA on the principal that when the only options on the table are between the Devil you know and the Devil you don’t, you must form an alliance with the Devil you know that serves your military objectives of liberating northern SYRIA from TURKISH occupation.
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as the outlook at the beginning of 2018 seems long gone as it no longer looks like the war in SYRIA might be drawing toward an ending but rather in my opinion, it appears that an end to the conflict is nowhere in sight but rather the war in Syria is growing like a tumour–worsening in some areas and infecting surrounding states. Therefore, what began as a civil uprising over seven years ago now looks more like an international conflict where sponsor countries are replacing their proxies in SYRIA. In my opinion, with 400,000 people dead, the conflict in SYRIA no longer seems to be just about the future of President Bashar al-Assad, the SYRIAN people or even ISIS which has now lost most of its territory in SYRIA but instead SYRIA appears to have become a series of battles for geopolitical dominance in the region. That is, with the key player becoming IRAN that has extended its influence and reach inside SYRIA, IRAN now effectively holds the balance of power. In my opinion, in the beginning, IRAN entered SYRIA to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but the SYRIAN regime has almost become hostage to IRAN’s interests.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 286” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby everybody now focuses on what have you done for my personal, financial and political interests lately as to the extent you support my enemies, you become my opposition such that the enemy of my enemy now becomes my friend transcending all traditional notions of family and friends, as even so-called family and friends will now throw you in front of a firing squad if it benefits their primary interests, such that not even family and friends can be trusted as when push comes to shove even they will choose to support their primary beneficial interests such that history is irrelevant while current choices made are interest based prevalent such that there is no more loyalty, faithfulness or devotion but only strategic alliances according to current perspectives on who best serves my immediate needs, goals and objectives.
Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 80
Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT)” requires a “Healthy Open No-Nonsense Equal Straight Talk (HONEST)” Leader with equality in mind and straight talk abilities for the HYPOCRITS to be exposed for the world to see as nothing more than self-centered, egotistical & narcissistic Big Shot Wannabees.
In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to identify individuals contaminated with “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT) Syndrome” as a by product of significant change.
It is important for organizations to acknowledge that during periods of change, the greatest risk to successful change is posed by contamination of the mass with “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT) Syndrome” as opposed to a “Healthy Open No-Nonsense Equal Straight Talk (HONEST) Syndrome”.
In this New World Order (NWO) where there are persistent changes, be it through mergers and acquisitions or restructurings and reorganizations, the only constant which is assured over time is that of change. In order to be able to compete in this New World Order (NWO), there is one of two generic techniques.
The first technique which I refer to as “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT) Syndrome” is predicated on the notion that when one feels threatened, in either fact or appearance, of losing their job, their home, their family, their wealth or any other “Raison D’Être”, one’s innate savage survival instincts tend to kick in, whereby one becomes frustrated with the change, to the point that one can become heartless, like a yoyo on a string, to the point that one becomes like a crazy and rude pig, riding on the idiot train, as if one was born with no brains.
For example, if one feels uncomfortable with the Change Leader because the proposed changes are contrary to one’s personal preferences, one may commence to create heartless fictitious stories about the Change Leader, which are so ludicrous that others will follow suit, because everyone wants to give the Change Leader the boot.
Taking this example one step further, if everyone starts to behave like “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT)”, the general rule of strength in numbers will tend to prevail, when in actual fact the numbers represent a Legalized Mob Gangster CLICK who have ulterior motives, which are far from pure, such that Academy award acting and storytelling is what they conjure.
Taking this example to the extreme, when people have behaved like complete and utter idiots, they can never turn back, but rather must stick to their stories until the end, for admission of guilt would tend to create a Boomerang effect, whereby the “Heartless Yoyo Pigs on Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT)” would suffer shame, dishonour and disrespect while the Change Leader would be restored to grace, which would never be allowed by the heartless two-face.
As is evident from my Hyperboles above, this type of approach is destructive, counterproductive and chaotic by its nature. For the record, Hyperbole is defined as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. Hyperboles may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create strong impressions but they are not meant to be taken literally.
Now I would like to focus on the second technique which I refer to as “Healthy Open No-Nonsense Equal Straight Talk (HONEST) Syndrome” whereby one does not need to revert to a barbaric “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT)” approach because one has a healthy and open mind, which does not need to resort to non-sense in order to succeed, but rather with equality in mind and straight talk abilities, the HYPOCRITS will be exposed for the world to see.
In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT)” requires a “Healthy Open No-Nonsense Equal Straight Talk (HONEST)” Leader with equality in mind and straight talk abilities for the HYPOCRITS to be exposed for the world to see as nothing more than self-centered, egotistical & narcissistic Big Shot Wannabees.
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Heartless Yoyo Pigs On Crazy Rude Idiot Train (HYPOCRIT) Syndrome?”
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 285” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY sees the quest by the KURDS, who are spread out in TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAN and IRAQ, to establish an independent homeland as a threat to TURKISH territorial integrity and therefore TURKEY has long warned that TURKEY will not tolerate KURDISH YPG control of the TURKISH border with SYRIA. In my opinion, this weeks mortar strikes launched by KURDISH YPG forces that are landing daily inside TURKEY’s frontier towns have definitely placed TURKISH communities on edge and created internal resentment against TURKEY’s military operation. In my opinion, SYRIA’s seven-year conflict has provided an opportunity for SYRIA’s KURDISH YPG separatists to establish themselves as a major SYRIAN player with U.S. backing enabling the KURDISH YPG to capture land almost 100,000 square kilometers in size. However, TURKEY has watched those gains with rising anger as TURKEY views KURDISH YPG conquests on the SYRIAN side of the border as a national security issue to TURKEY given that TURKEY has been engaged in a decades-old war with the KURDISH PKK on the TURKISH side such that TURKEY is justifying its three-week-old offensive in the KURDISH enclave of AFRIN as a fight against terrorism. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG cross-border shelling that resulted in seven people killed and more than 110 wounded across KILIS and HATAY provinces in TURKEY illustrate the strength of the KURDISH YPG such that TURKEY will not be able to conquer KURDISH held territories without significant resistance.
In regards to two senior U.S. generals coming to the front lines outside the SYRIAN city of MANBIJ flying huge U.S. flags on their vehicles to insure TURKISH forces just on the other side of what has once again become no man’s land realized that U.S. forces were present, it is obvious to me that the U.S. was sending the TURKISH forces the message that if you hit the U.S. forces, the U.S. forces will respond aggressively in order to defend themselves. It is important to note that ISIS militants once controlled this part of SYRIA’s north such that the U.S. and its allies, the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG fighters, collaborated less than one year ago to take over MANBIJ from ISIS. Therefore, in my opinion TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to attack the city of MANBIJ after calling MANBIJ a bastion of terrorists and demanding that the U.S. forces leave is akin to a spoiled brat wanting the best of both worlds whereby after the dust settled and ISIS was eradicated, TURKEY desires to retake this territory from the hands of the liberators who posed no threat to TURKEY before TURKEY decided to strike the KURDISH YPG on the basis of guilty of terrorism until proven innocent by mere association via race with the KURDISH PKK face. In my opinion, even if the TURKISH forces do not carry out their threats, the fight in AFRIN has indirectly hurt the U.S. led fight against ISIS as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been forced to shift fighters to the battle in AFRIN, thereby weakening the ISIS campaign far to the east of SYRIA. In my opinion, it is illogical that while the KURDISH YPG forces are still fighting ISIS, the enemy of the world, the TURKISH forces attack the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN while the KURDISH YPG have demonstrated that the KURDS are democratic, as women are free, have equality and democracy under the KURDISH YPG, such that Turkey’s claim that the KURDISH YPG are terrorists is preposterous. In my opinion, this TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week it was announced that the number of U.S. forces in IRAQ would be reduced after the government in IRAQ declared victory over ISIS. In my opinion, the ongoing presence in IRAQ of approximately 5,200 U.S. forces is politically sensitive for IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi who is facing national elections in March whereby the U.S. presence seems to cast a sentiment of infringement on IRAQI sovereignty after the so-called declaration of victory over ISIS by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.
Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s announcement by IRAQ’s oil ministry that it has signed a contract with RANYA International to build a refinery with the production capacity of 70,000 BPD in KIRKUK province is a favourable development for the region as the establishment of the KIRKUK refinery is a good first step for investment in the refinery sector to cover internal demand in KIRKUK and adjacent neighbours. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) revenues have been slashed by about half since the loss of KIRKUK further worsening KURDISTAN’s financial crisis caused by IRAQI budget cuts since early 2014, low oil prices, and the war against ISIS such that KURDISTAN needs a short-term solution for its current financial crisis. In my opinion, the current stalemate locking the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the IRAQI Federal Government over the 2018 budget needs to be urgently resolved as the KRG demands the return of its 17% budget share while IRAQ is proposing a 12.6% share which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated is insufficient for the KRG.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with vengeance as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. In my opinion, it is not the first time the TURKISH leader stated that the campaign against KURDISH militia in SYRIA could actually spread beyond AFRIN such TURKEY is now focusing on its recent successes in AFRIN by announcing that around 900 Syrian Kurdish fighters have been neutralized as a spring board for an eventual attack on IDLIB. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin agreement to hold a second three-way summit on SYRIA with RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN, I believe that only these three parties can successfully end the bloodshed in SYRIA.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the U.S. carrying out a brutal massacre with a bombing attack in DEIR AL-ZOR province overnight with air and artillery strikes killing an estimated 100 SYRIAN government fighters near the EUPHRATES river although the U.S. claims that it was exercising its right to self-defence by responding to an attack on its ALLIANCE forces on the ground. In my opinion, the SYRIAN government was likely looking to take over this territory from the SDF forces because of the rich oil fields in KHUSHAM that had been a major source of revenue for ISIS from 2014 to 2017. Furthermore, both RUSSIA and the U.S. have regularly accused each other of operating in this area in order to seize control of local oil operations. Ironically, both the U.S. and RUSSIAN forces in SYRIA have a communication line open 24 hours a day to insure that they do not attack each other so it would appear that RUSSIA was aware of the impending U.S. strike. In my opinion, the U.S. must have been satisfied that adequate warnings were given to the RUSSIANS before the U.S. hit the SYRIAN government forces with artillery and air strikes in the spirit of deconfliction as opposed to coordination. That is, the relationship between the U.S. and RUSSIA appears to be centered on a clone war method of operations whereby each side avoids direct confrontations with each other under the U.S. and RUSSIAN flags while they have their respective SDF and SAA forces doing all the dirty work on the ground on their respective behalves. Therefore, this situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby each major third party foreign backing side chooses to fight from the sidelines behind their respective domestic clone force on the ground while the real brains behind the operations are safe in the clouds.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 285” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the TURKISH spin clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the easiest method to tarnish the reputation of the opposition is to accuse them of being terrorists based on gossip, rumours and fictitious allegations, as on the basis of terrorism one is able to circumvent all laws, violate all civil rights and liberties and essentially operate under the NAZI principal of guilty until proven innocent by mere association to a specific ethnic race, religion and culture with complete and utter disrespect for human dignity on the basis of hate induced coma states of poisoned minds perceiving the opposition as repugnant, vial and nasty rodents that must all be exterminated without exception as all are in substance contaminated with virus of exceptionalism.
Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 79
Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” requires a “Peaceful Open Likeable Intelligent Tolerant Etiquette (POLITE)” Leader who will ultimately create a suitable mixture of intelligence and tolerance that is likeable by the human race as a reasonable accommodation to avoid psychotic, neurotic and lunatic degradation.
In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to identify individuals contaminated with “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” as a by product of significant change.
It is important for organizations to acknowledge that during periods of change, the greatest risk to successful change is posed by contamination of the mass with “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” as opposed to a “Peaceful Open Likeable Intelligent Tolerant Etiquette (POLITE) Syndrome”.
In this New World Order (NWO) where there are persistent changes, be it through mergers and acquisitions or restructurings and reorganizations, the only constant which is assured over time is that of change. In order to be able to compete in this New World Order (NWO), there is one of two generic techniques.
The first technique which I refer to as “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” is predicated on the notion that when one feels threatened, in either fact or appearance, of losing their job, their home, their family, their wealth or any other “Raison D’Être”, one’s innate savage survival instincts tend to kick in, whereby one becomes frustrated with the change, to the point that one can start to behave like a wild monkey in the jungle creating nonsense with no respect for anyone other than “Me, Myself and I” like an uneducated delinquent with zero etiquette.
For example, if one feels uncomfortable with the Change Leader because the proposed changes are contrary to one’s personal preferences, one may commence to disrespect the Change Leader by utilizing uneducated tactics such as defamation, slander or political character assassination.
Taking this example one step further, one may create or join a Legalized Mob Gangster CLICK inside an organization in order to take their uneducated tactics one step further by generating propaganda in mass when in actuality it is the “Propaganda Artists” who are covering and protecting their respective ass.
Taking this example to the extreme, one may join a Legalized Mob Gangster CLICK outside in order to reinforce the defamation, slander or political character assassination in force. However, after multiple attempts of respectless uneducated delinquent attacks, the “Propaganda Artists” will have cried wolf one too many times after which the truth will be set free, and everyone shall see, that the “Propaganda Artists” breath is centered on internal issues with their own mental health.
As is evident from my Hyperboles above, this type of approach is destructive, counterproductive and chaotic by its nature. For the record, Hyperbole is defined as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. Hyperboles may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create strong impressions but they are not meant to be taken literally.
Now I would like to focus on the second technique which I refer to as “Peaceful Open Likeable Intelligent Tolerant Etiquette (POLITE) Syndrome” whereby one does not need to revert to a barbaric “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” approach because one has peaceful spirit of mind, which is open to friendly debate, and thus creates a mixture of intelligence and tolerance which is likeable by the human race.
In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome” requires a “Peaceful Open Likeable Intelligent Tolerant Etiquette (POLITE)” Leader who will ultimately create a suitable mixture of intelligence and tolerance that is likeable by the human race as a reasonable accommodation to avoid psychotic, neurotic and lunatic degradation.
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Respectless Uneducated Delinquent Etiquette (RUDE) Syndrome?”
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 284” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the opinions of the underdogs seem to be lost in the wind as the views of the dominant personal, financial and political interests are imposed without any sense of compassion as the dominant powers believe that with sheer military might, they can squash the resistance into assimilation, at the risk of complete and utter annihilation, albeit realities that what is protected with blood is never easily relinquished regardless of abomination instincts but rather always simmers, eventually rising to the surface for a boomerang resurgence.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY sees the quest by the KURDS, who are spread out in TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAN and IRAQ, to establish an independent homeland as a threat to TURKISH territorial integrity and therefore TURKEY has long warned that TURKEY will not tolerate KURDISH YPG control of the TURKISH border with SYRIA. In my opinion, the Turkish attacks are Barbaric and thus the international community should hold the TURKISH government accountable for the violence. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG soldiers are fighting fiercely and have displayed both resolve and confidence fighting off the TURKISH forces with TURKEY’s powerful onslaught that is superior in strength and power to that of the KURDISH YPG. However, this situation between the KURDS and the TURKS seems to reflect the new geopolitical realities whereby the opinions of the underdogs seem to be lost in the wind as the views of the dominant personal, financial and political interests are imposed without any sense of compassion as the dominant powers believe that with sheer military might, they can squash the resistance into assimilation, at the risk of complete and utter annihilation, albeit realities that what is protected with blood is never easily relinquished regardless of abomination instincts but rather always simmers, eventually rising to the surface for a boomerang resurgence.
In regards to TURKEY’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, dismissing France’s cautionary remarks about its military operation in SYRIA’s northern district of AFRIN as insults, this perfectly illustrates the new geopolitical realities whereby everybody twists and turns the underlying facts and circumstances to serve their respective actions as TURKEY justifies its current actions in AFRIN on the basis of self-defence in accordance with United Nations resolutions. However, in my opinion, TURKEY has stretched the definition of self-defence as promulgated by the United Nations as the KURDISH YPG have never attacked inside the TURKISH borders nor have the KURDISH YPG ever threatened to attack inside TURKISH borders. Therefore, TURKEY’s claim that the operation is being carried out under the framework of TURKEY’s rights based on international law is stretching international laws to the extremes to in essence claim that the KURDISH YPG poses a terrorist threat to TURKEY albeit the realities that the only threat the KURDISH YPG currently imposes to TURKEY seems to be fabricated in TURKEY’s respective minds. In my opinion, TURKEY does not want to see the KURDISH YPG control the border of SYRIA with TURKEY such that TURKEY will twist, turn and manipulate all underlying facts and circumstances as needed to justify the current strike against the KURDISH YPG on the basis of terrorist threat that in essence gives TURKEY the right to supersede laws and regulations with TURKISH martial law.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week it is evident that stability still remains fragile, as IRAQ is coping with tensions of violent sectarianism between the SHIITE and SUNNI populations. Therefore, in my opinion, this is a crucial moment for IRAQ as IRAQ gears up for an election that could undo IRAQ’s hard-fought gains against ISIS with a vote that could reshape the influence of IRAN across the Middle East and determine the likelihood of a resurgence of ISIS. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi made a strategic error when he welcomed the leaders of IRANIAN-backed Shiite militias into a grand coalition that he hoped would cement his image as a moderating figure that could reach beyond his own SHIITE base to appeal to IRAQ’s other communities. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not surprising that within 24 hours, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi reversed his decision and the Shiite militia leaders left the coalition as although the IRANIAN backed SHIITE militias have won praise for helping defeat ISIS, they have also been accused in sectarian atrocities and their leaders are seen by many as tools of IRAN that obviously infuriated SUNNI and KURDISH leaders.
In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ. In my opinion, negotiations between IRAQI military officials and their KURDISH counterparts under the banner of the U.S. in FISH KHABUR to try to find a settlement for recent disputes and the threat of further military confrontation particularly over the border crossing points was critical to avert a full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the discussions seem to show that both the IRAQI and KURDISH militaries want to avoid a full fledge civil war as they both seem to be inclined to prefer to share in the oil rich jewels of KURDISTAN as opposed to risking the destruction of the entire region to end up winning the civil war but being left with nothing to show.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this week’s attainment of approximately 70% agreement on issues dividing KURDISTAN and IRAQ is a positive development although the main stumbling block continues to be the KHURMALA oil field that will likely linger into the upcoming IRAQI elections. In my opinion, at the moment, the balance of power is weighed heavily in IRAQ’s favour but with the KURDISH KRG economically desperate for its budget share from the IRAQI government, everything could shift after the May 12 elections when the Kurds could play the role of balance of power as part of an IRAQI coalition government as IRAQ’s fractured political landscape may give the KURDS the opportunity to cast their votes behind the next prime minister and thus give the KURDS the upper hand in future negotiations. In my opinion, oil has long been a contentious issue between KURDISTAN and IRAQ such that when KURDISTAN began exporting its oil independently, I saw the move as a step on the road to independence. However, giving control back to the IRAQI government will be emotionally difficult but the economically weak KURDISTAN is too dependent on the volatile oil commodity that it will be forced to negotiate a deal with IRAQ to retain its fair share as KURDISTAN is currently overly reliant on natural resources such that they will be forced to reach a deal.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with what KURDISH residents described as a curse that could consume the entire city and spin the SYRIAN conflict into yet another dangerous direction. Thus, I believe that the future in AFRIN is now unknown as the newest victims in SYRIA’s conflict with a disorientated mix of sects and ethnicities that had hoped to hide from the fighting but now find themselves in the center of the civil war. In my opinion, AFRIN is the newest casualty of volatility in SYRIA being shaped by feuding global powers such as TURKEY determined to stake their personal, financial and political interests in what remains of SYRIA. Thus, from my point-of-view, the silence of the NATO members is unacceptable when one of their members TURKEY is killing civilians by the dozens. In my opinion, by NATO staying silent, they are making a big mistake, as the U.S. and Europeans have to remember that if it were not for the KURDISH YPG forces, ISIS would not be on the verge of total collapse in SYRIA.
In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. Nonetheless, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see a hospital built under more than 60 feet of rock, considered to be one of the best protected in SYRIA, located in a Free Syrian Army (FSA) part of central SYRIA completely destroyed by a powerful air strike. In my opinion, the hospital which serves a population of 50,000 people and performs about 150 major surgery procedures a month suffered extensive damage such that it must have been hit by advanced bunker-buster missiles such that it is save to conclude that President Bashar al-Assad wanted to destroy this hospital and this strike was no accident. In my opinion, this is the most serious attack in a larger campaign against hospitals in SYRIA such that although it is not clear who carried out the latest strike between the SYRIAN government warplanes or those of RUSSIA, it is clear to me that both have been increasing their attacks in rebel-held areas. Thus, it is deplorable to see that diplomatic efforts to get aid into SYRIA have become totally futile as the last aid convoy to enter into a besieged area was at the end of November of 2017 as conditions on the ground are at their worst since 2015. In my opinion, given that aid convoys must be approved by the SYRIAN government and that armed groups have to offer security guarantees over the aid convoys, it has literally become unmanageable logistically on the ground to get aid convoys to besieged areas in desperate need of assistance.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 284” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the opinions of the underdogs seem to be lost in the wind as the views of the dominant personal, financial and political interests are imposed without any sense of compassion as the dominant powers believe that with sheer military might, they can squash the resistance into assimilation, at the risk of complete and utter annihilation, albeit realities that what is protected with blood is never easily relinquished regardless of abomination instincts but rather always simmers, eventually rising to the surface for a boomerang resurgence.
Change Management Fundamental Basics “Gangnam THE ROCK Style” – Part 78
Christiano will learn over time that during periods of change, organizations should promote the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” requires a “Spiritual Universal Good Altruistic Rational (SUGAR)” Leader who will ultimately prevail and animalistic savage conspiracies will fail.
In my opinion, organizations need to embrace the notion that during periods of change it is critical to insure that policies and procedures are in place to identify individuals contaminated with “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” as a by product of significant change.
It is important for organizations to acknowledge that during periods of change, the greatest risk to successful change is posed by contamination of the mass with “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” as opposed to a “Spiritual Universal Good Altruistic Rational (SUGAR) Syndrome”.
In this New World Order (NWO) where there are persistent changes, be it through mergers and acquisitions or restructurings and reorganizations, the only constant which is assured over time is that of change. In order to be able to compete in this New World Order (NWO), there is one of two generic techniques.
The first technique which I refer to as “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” is predicated on the notion that when one feels threatened, in either fact or appearance, of losing their job, their home, their family, their wealth or any other “Raison D’Être”, one’s innate savage survival instincts tend to kick in, whereby one becomes frustrated with the change, to the point that one can start to become selfish, only thinking about “Me, Myself and I”, combined with an arrogance to shine but needing to resort to tantrums of lies to compensate for one’s lack of abilities and ties.
For example, if one feels uncomfortable with the Change Leader because the proposed changes are contrary to one’s personal preferences, one may commence “Animal Tactics” such as backstabbing, frame jobs, conspiracy set-ups and political character assassinations.
Taking this example one step further, such techniques, which may be effective in the short-term, generally lead to the creation of a jungle atmosphere, whereby everybody commences behaving like an animal to the point of the creation of a safari.
Taking this example to the extreme, once the animal instinct pretext kicks-in only “Noah” can tame the insane, and restore order amongst the delinquents in the “Rat Race”, by creating an “Arc” to wipe the slate clean and then starting all over in the right direction of respect, integrity and honesty.
As is evident from my Hyperboles above, this type of approach is destructive, counterproductive and chaotic by its nature. For the record, Hyperbole is defined as the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. Hyperboles may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create strong impressions but they are not meant to be taken literally.
Now I would like to focus on the second technique which I refer to as “Spiritual Universal Good Altruistic Rational (SUGAR) Syndrome” whereby one does not need to revert to a barbaric “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” approach because one’s spirit, combined with universal, good, altruistic and rational values, morals, principles and ethics predicated on honesty, integrity and respect will ultimately prevail and animalistic savage conspiracies will fail.
In summary, I refer to “Change Management Gangnam THE ROCK Style” as the belief that Hyperboles best illustrate that “Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome” requires a “Spiritual Universal Good Altruistic Rational (SUGAR)” Leader who will ultimately prevail and animalistic savage conspiracies will fail.
Christiano Says, “WHO Is Gangnam THE ROCK Style – Selfish Arrogant Lying Tantrums (SALT) Syndrome?”
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 283” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby divergent personal, financial and political interests tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first as every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY urged the U.S. to halt its support for KURDISH YPG fighters or risk confronting TURKISH forces on the ground in SYRIA representing TURKEY’s strongest comments yet about a potential clash with its NATO ally. In my opinion, TURKEY’s targeting of the KURDISH YPG, which TURKEY views as a security threat, has opened a new front in SYRIA’s complex proxy civil war as the SYRIAN KURDISH YPG is a main part of the U.S. backed ALLIANCE that recently defeated ISIS militants in RAQQA. Therefore, any push by TURKISH forces towards MANBIJ that is a part of KURDISH held territory approximately 100 km east of AFRIN could threaten U.S. efforts in northeast SYRIA and bring TURKISH forces into direct confrontation with U.S. troops deployed in the region. In my opinion, it would be in the U.S. best interests to review U.S. soldiers giving support to the KURDISH YPG on the ground in such a way that the U.S. avoids a direct confrontation with TURKEY. In regards to the KURDISH led autonomous government that runs AFRIN calling on the SYRIAN government under President Bashar al-Assad to defend SYRIA’s border, it is clear to me that the KURDISH YPG need the SYRIAN air force support. In my opinion, the SYRIAN government has said it is ready to target TURKISH jets in its airspace although it has not yet intervened because the SYRIAN government believes that the Kurdish YPG will eventually seek independence in the long-run while the SYRIAN government does not recognise the autonomous regions set-up by the KURDISH YPG in northern Syria.
In my opinion, this tension between TURKEY and the U.S. concerning the KURDISH YPG perfectly illustrates that divergent personal, financial and political interests that tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that this is the new geopolitical complexity that has flooded the entire region whereby everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first while ISIS is placed secondary along with all other strategic NATO alliances. That is, when the dominant TURKISH personal, financial and political interests use aggressive military techniques, they justify their actions on the basis of defining themselves as freedom fighters while when the KURDISH YPG utilize similar tactics, they are silenced due to their minority status and definition as terrorists. Thus, I was not surprised to see differing accounts of the telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that offers a glimpse into how deep the mistrust has become between the two largest military powers in NATO over the issue of American support for the Syrian KURDISH YPG fighters. Therefore, I was not surprised to see tensions boiling over after the U.S. announced earlier this month that the U.S. would build a 30,000 strong border force, including the KURDISH YPG, that would patrol SYRIA’s frontiers while TURKEY retaliated that such a force constitutes an intolerable national security threat accusing the U.S. of building a terror army across the border. In my opinion, these differences between TURKEY and the U.S. concerning interpretations of telephone calls between respective Presidents clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week’s announcement whereby IRAQ called on foreign investors to help IRAQ rebuild after defeating ISIS saying that it would need up to $100 billion to fix crumbling infrastructure and war-torn cities is not at all surprising as at the end of the day it is foreign investment that will make IRAQ once again turn round and round. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will face a tough balancing act when seeking military and economic support from the U.S., IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA that have all expressed their interest in building relations with IRAQ although it is no secret that there has been an escalation of tensions between the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIA with IRAN. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on IRAN threatening to pull out of a 2015 nuclear deal agreement between IRAN and world powers has only fuelled the flames of resistance as IRANIAN foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif skipped the DAVOS forum for the first time in many years, pulling out of the program soon after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plans to attend. Therefore, all sides must keep their personal differences aside from IRAQ when assisting with the reconstruction of the country as it is no secret that there is no love lost between the respective Parties such that it is best to keep relationships between IRAQ and each individual country separate to avoid further escalation in their respective tensions and conflicts.
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks advance in talks between KURDISTAN and IRAQ should lead to final agreements on the issues of paying KURDISH civil salaries and lifting the international flight ban on the KURDISTAN Region’s airports while the long-disputed matter of oil will take a lot more time to resolve as everybody will be looking for what they consider to be their respective fair share of the huge KIRKUK oil field gold mines. However, the matter of oil will top the future meeting agendas, as there cannot be a resolution of the conflict between the KURDISTAN and IRAQI governments before reaching an agreement on a profit sharing arrangement. Nonetheless, I believe that the only viable solution will be to hand over the extracted oil to the federal authority with the oil exported exclusively by the federal government through state-owned SOMO company while giving the KURDISH government access to the books of account for regular verification to insure details of agreements reached can be independently verified to land credence to the federal administration process.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayep Erdogan launched the AFRIN offensive less than a week after the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year out of pure infuriation while promising to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it ever was able to come into existence. In my opinion, if TURKEY and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies defeat the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN, they would link up two areas of rebel-held territory in northwest SYRIA consisting of the IDLIB region west of AFRIN and another area to the east which TURKISH backed FSA rebels control after TURKEY’s “Euphrates Shield” military intervention in 2016. Therefore, a TURKISH military victory would be a boost for SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s main opponents consisting of the FSA who have been losing ground for the last two years to SYRIAN government forces supported by RUSSIAN air power and IRANIAN backed militias. However, a TURKISH military victory would also place the FSA rebels in the predicament of governing a large KURDISH population.
Nonetheless, this week, a new round of SYRIA talks commenced in VIENNA, AUSTRIA in what officials said may be the last hope for a resolution to the seven year long SYRIAN conflict. In my opinion, the last round of Syrian talks held in Geneva in December failed between the Syrian government and FSA opposition delegates over the future role of President Bashar al-Assad in a transitional SYRIAN government. Therefore, this time in VIENNA, the FSA opposition needs to moderate its tone as concerns President Bashar al-Assad but not the substance of the FSA request that he step-down as part of a transitional government as in my opinion this should not be an issue that tops the agenda as President Bashar al-Assad and his family have been around for what seems to be an eternity such that a couple more years should not be seen as a show stopper in the grand scheme of things. In my opinion, this round of negotiations needs to focus on the details to achieve a real political transition, a new constitution and elections to be held in SYRIA in the near term future contrary to the current belief by the SYRIAN government that there is only a military solution and not a political one, as the situation on the ground shows to date. In my opinion, backed by the RUSSIANS, the SYRIAN government is still on the offensive and its military operations against the FSA rebels have recently gained new momentum in IDLIB and HAMA provinces demonstrating the SYRIAN government’s relentlessness attempts to clear the SYRIAN territory from ISIS and all other opposition forces.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 283” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby divergent personal, financial and political interests tend to characterize the same group of fighters as either freedom fighters or terrorists depending upon the point-of-view such that everybody continuously and persistently jockeys primarily for his or her respective interests first as every side twists, turns and manipulates underlying conversations to put a country specific twist beneficial to domestic electorate to in essence tell them what they want to hear such that there seems to be two different stories to one same conversation depending on geographic location sphere.
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In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 282” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicting the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures after threatening the Syrian KURDISH militia YPG (People’s Protections Units) for years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now seems to be preparing TURKEY’s military for a large-scale invasion in the KURDISH region of AFRIN in northwest SYRIA. In my opinion, during 2016, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed Operation Euphrates Shield consisting of a combined TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) military force was set-up with the intention to fight ISIS, in reality, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was preparing for the possibility of a military intervention to prevent the establishment of a neighbouring KURDISH region along the TURKISH border in SYRIA. Therefore, in my opinion, the imminent offensive against the SYRIAN KURDS in AFRIN highlights the potential that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on the verge of carrying out a new aggressive manoeuvre which aims to advance TURKEY’s neo-Ottoman agenda in the Middle East and beyond.
In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is utilizing last week’s U.S. announcement that the U.S. would assist the SDF in transforming it’s Kurdish-Arab militias into a force of 30,000 fighters as a border security force as justification for invading AFRIN which has been under YPG control since 2012. In my opinion, the U.S. and N.A.T.O. have not shown much interest in stopping President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from taking over AFRIN because for them it is not part of the effort to eradicate the remaining ISIS regions in eastern SYRIA. In my opinion, there is much more at stake than securing the SYRIAN TURKISH border and safeguarding the return of SYRIAN refugees whereby the U.S. would like to create conditions that would enable regime change in SYRIA while keeping U.S. soldiers in TURKEY to confront IRAN which appears to be working behind the scenes to transform SYRIA into another IRANIAN state like LEBANON. Furthermore, in my opinion, U.S. disengagement from SYRIA followed by loss of the SYRIAN border with TURKEY currently controlled by KURDISH YPG forces would also provide IRAN with the opportunity to further strengthen its own position in SYRIA given that IRAN is looking to dominate in the Middle East while ISRAEL shivers at the thought of IRAN controlling the Middle East for fear of the IRANIAN support of the PALESTINIANS. This current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. Nonetheless, this week’s announcement that persistent bombings and shooting attacks by ISIS make it difficult to rebuild the lives of displaced people whereby about 2.6 million people have been displaced after the three-year war with ISIS whereby about half of those displaced are children is quite disturbing to say the least. In my opinion, violence is not only killing and maiming children but it is also destroying schools, hospitals, homes and roads while tearing apart the diverse social fabric and culture of tolerance that once held IRAQI communities together. In regards to the sensitive issue of sectarian political debate as Sunni politicians are lobbying for postponing parliamentary elections due in May to allow the displaced to return to their hometowns to cast their ballots there while Shiite Muslim politicians including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi insist on the vote taking place as planned on May 12, I believe that regardless of what has transpired it is always best to go on with the show. Therefore, in my opinion, the elections in IRAQ should be held on time because delaying them would set a dangerous precedent undermining the constitution and damaging IRAQ’s long-term democratic development while there will always be subsequent elections after the Sunni Muslims return to level the playing field if the Shiite Muslims perform badly.
In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second-class citizens in IRAQ such that the KURDS will in essence retake control of their destinies within the IRAQI federal system via a quiet revolution to avert further bloodshed in IRAQ that could risk the complete and utter destruction of the entire KURDISTAN region. In my opinion, this weeks signing of an initial agreement by BP with the IRAQI government to ramp up production from the giant KIRKUK oilfield in IRAQI Kurdistan further cements the IRAQI governments control over the disputed KURDISH region. In my opinion, KIRKUK, the biggest oilfield in the world when it was first discovered by BP around 1920 has been the most contentious issue between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments for decades such with the signing of this agreement between BP and the IRAQI government, the KURDISH plans to carve out an independent state inside IRAQ appear to be history as economic realities seem to dictate that KURDISTAN will share in this jewel with the IRAQI government.
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH strategic focus on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in Syria, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery fired into SYRIA’s AFRIN region in what TURKEY states is the start of a military campaign against the KURDISH controlled region. In my opinion, direct military action against territory held by KURDISH militia would open a new front in SYRIA’s civil war and would see TURKEY confronting KURDS allied to the U.S. at a time when TURKEY’s relations with the U.S. are reaching the breaking point. In my opinion, a TURKISH military operation does not serve the cause of regional stability, SYRIAN stability or TURKISH concerns about the security of their border but rather these kinds of threats or activities actually destabilize the border. In my opinion, TURKEY has been angered by U.S. military support for the KURDISH YPG dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that spearheaded the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and mostly by an announcement that the U.S. would stay in Syria to train about 30,000 YPG soldiers in eastern SYRIA under SDF control as border patrol officers. In my opinion, TURKEY has effectively snapped after the U.S. announcement as TURKEY has been claiming from the outset that the YPG is a terrorist group and a branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party that has waged an insurgency in southeast TURKEY for decades such that U.S. backing of the KURDISH YPG with emphasis on countering ISIS was acceptable while the change in U.S. strategy appears to have created a non-reconciling difference of opinion with TURKEY.
In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. Nonetheless, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised this week to see the Chairman of IRAN’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, stress IRAN’s opposition to the U.S. troops presence in SYRIA while praising President Bashar al-Assad on SYRIA’s reconciliatory efforts. In my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SYRIAN minister praise the long-standing relations between IRAN and SYRIA while noting that the two countries are fighting on the same front and will win together as it is no secret that IRAN backs the current SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad exclusively and irrevocably. Furthermore, IRAN is the tie that binds SYRIA to HEZBOLLAH such that IRAN was infuriated this week as HEZBOLLAH leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that ISRAEL was behind a recent car bomb attack on one of the leaders of the PALESTINIAN movement known as HAMAS in the LEBANESE city of SIDON. In my opinion, the incident in LEBANON whereby Mohamed Hamdan was injured after an explosive device planted in his BMW went off in SIDON most probably originated from ISRAEL although I do not believe that there will be adequate evidence to pin ISREAL for this crime that obviously violates the sovereignty of LEBANON. In my opinion, this LINK between IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH is strong as steel such that I believe that they will never ever accept either the U.S. or ISRAEL as a dominant player in the Middle East such that all of this week’s events just further highlight the divide along with the notion that there continues to be opposing commotions that will continue into perpetuity as the two sides cannot stand each others motions.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 282” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders whereby the U.S. would like to see the conversion of the KURDISH forces into a border security force while TURKEY would prefer to annihilate the entire KURDISH army perfectly depicting the new geopolitical realities whereby all decisions are centered on personal, financial and political interests whereby for every action there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction as the world seems to be more and more divided in at least two pieces of a giant pie whereby there is a perpetual tug of war with everybody looking to gain the upper hand for their respective side such that one border between SYRIA and TURKEY seems to have implications on SYRIA, TURKEY, KURDISTAN, U.S., IRAN, ISRAEL and PALESTINE.
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