ivancacpa

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 270” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby the IRAQI federalists are disrespectful, greedy and money hungry idiots who were unable to accord the KURDISH sovereignists a little bit of respect for their democratic attempts to create their KURDISTAN state after giving their blood in the war against ISIS to preserve the KIRKUK oil rich slate only to see IRAQI forces taking over this territory with military haste.

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on the trial against the head of Amnesty International in TURKEY, Taner Kilic, who denied alleged membership to the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) blamed for last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the charges against Taner Kilic are politically motivated in an attempt to silence all critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has cracked down hard on all his opponents since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt. Given that there are inconcrete and unclear accusations in the indictment combined with the fact that there is no concrete evidence to prove any links between Taner Kilic to Fetullah Gulen, I believe that the TURKISH authorities accusations have violated Taner Kilic’s right to a fair trial as the presumption of innocence was waived with Taner Kilic incarceration since being arrested on the premise of guilty until proven innocent as a member of a terrorist organization. In my opinion, the fact that TURKEY’s post “Coup D’État” purge has now gone after the chair of Amnesty International in TURKEY only reinforces how far TURKEY has gone with authoritarian rule. In my opinion, TURKEY once again appears to be applying the authoritarian principle of “Guilty Until Proven Innocent” as opposed to the democratic principal of “Innocent Until Proven Guilty” such that although TURKEY does not seem to have credible evidence of Taner Kilic’s involvement in any internationally recognised crimes, TURKEY seems to have held Taner Kilic without just cause violating international laws governing agents of Amnesty International. In my opinion, detaining Taner Kilic for using BYLOCK that is encrypted communication software that members of the outlawed FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP also use is insufficient grounds for prosecution as the underlying software itself is not illegal and is used by many organizations other than the FETHULLAH GULEN GROUP.

Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over ten months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whose fight has its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last stronghold in IRAQ consisting of AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. In my opinion, over 100 villages in the outskirts of HAWIJA still need to be purged to finalize the liberation of HAWIJA as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation of HAWIJA cannot be deemed completed. In regards to IRAQI forces kicking off their campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS holds extensive stretches of territories. In my opinion, two key strongholds held by ISIS in western ANBAR are the towns of RAWA and AL QAIM near the IRAQI-SYRIAN border where I expect ISIS to concentrate their remaining defensive efforts. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. Nonetheless, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told ISIS militants to choose between deaths and surrender as the IRAQI legions are advancing into the last areas of ISIS terrorism in IRAQ to liberate AL-QAIM, RAWA and the surrounding villages and hamlets. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, AL-QAIM, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

In regards to the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, it is still my opinion that the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that the U.S. two main allies in the fight against ISIS in IRAQ are now in a shooting war with each other over control of an oil-rich city that represents a fight that has the potential to throw IRAQ into chaos and possibly even a full-scale civil war. In summary, when ISIS took over IRAQ in 2014, this fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence got largely pushed to the back burner as both IRAQ and KURDISTAN focused on kicking ISIS out of the country. However, now that IRAQI and KURDISH forces have pushed ISIS out of most of IRAQ, these old divisions between IRAQ and KURDISTAN have once again exploded such that the fight over KIRKUK and KURDISH independence could end up once again destabilizing IRAQ all over again. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out. In my opinion, this independence drive by the KURDS in KURDISTAN illustrates the new geopolitical realities whereby even when the KURDS tried to be civilized by taking the YES referendum win as a strong bargaining chip for future negotiations, the IRAQI government responded with repossession of strategic sites without the KURDS putting up a serious fight, as the KURDS chose to be wiser to avert a full fledge civil war, with IRAQ, IRAN & TURKEY the trio of anti-separation uptights. It is important to note that when IRAQI forces chose to launch an offensive against KURDISH forces, this was a blatant violation of the IRAQI constitution that forbids the use of the army to settle political disputes. In my opinion, the international community needs to condemn IRAQ’s military aggression on the KURDS as excessive, unreasonable and unjustified, particularly in light of the fact that KURDISH blood soaks KIRKUK as it was the KURDS who stood tall against ISIS and refused to allow KIRKUK to fall while the IRAQI military shat full their overalls when ISIS was charging full speed while the KURDS refused to secede. Unfortunately, the U.S. is closely allied with both the IRAQI military and KURDISH forces, which together have driven ISIS out from most of IRAQ but although the battle against the ISIS extremists is not yet over, the dispute with the KURDS has diverted precious resources away from the war on ISIS. In my opinion, this illustrates perfectly the new geopolitical realities whereby the IRAQI federalists are greedy money hungry disrespectful idiots who were unable to accord the KURDISH sovereignists a little bit of respect for their democratic attempts to create their KURDISTAN state after giving their blood in the war against ISIS to preserve the KIRKUK oil rich slate.

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing.

In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, the loss of AL-MAYADEEN is a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. In my opinion, additional gains this week by the ISIS terrorist group that now controls less than five per cent of SYRIA after losing large swathes of territory to the SDF opposition fighters; the U.S. led coalition, the SAA and Russian allied forces represents a significant turning point in SYRIA. That is, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they finally ousted the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA represents a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and helps to bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS significantly reduces ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. Therefore, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Therefore, in my opinion, it is just a matter of time for the whole of RAQQA to be liberated from ISIS when the ISIS terrorists will not have any places left to hide. Unfortunately, the by-product of this liberation of RAQQA from ISIS appears to be the complete destruction of RAQQA that in my opinion can be attributed to the ALLIANCES’s relentless aerial bombardment of RAQQA to compensate for the weaknesses of its SDF forces on the ground. This was evident this week during victory celebrations by KURDISH forces that felt muted, as there were literally no civilians left in RAQQA such that it was the celebration of the liberation of a ghost town. In my opinion, ISIS is to blame for the complete destruction of RAQQA as with ISIS’s sole remaining technique of hiding behind civilians for cover, there was no other way to liberate RAQQA than via complete destruction of the city, the death and maiming of hundreds of civilians and the displacement of tens of thousands. In my opinion, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 270” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby the IRAQI federalists are disrespectful, greedy and money hungry idiots who were unable to accord the KURDISH sovereignists a little bit of respect for their democratic attempts to create their KURDISTAN state after giving their blood in the war against ISIS to preserve the KIRKUK oil rich slate only to see IRAQI forces taking over this territory with military haste.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 268” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economy.

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on having the TURKISH Embassy stop issuing visas to AMERICANS in an ongoing spat between TURKEY and the U.S. In my opinion, this ban by TURKEY is in direct response to a bigger spat between TURKEY and the U.S. whereby the U.S. announced earlier in the week that the U.S. was reducing VISA services at its diplomatic facilities in TURKEY for security reasons although it appears quite obvious that the U.S. move was triggered by after one of the U.S. employees being detained at the TURKISH consulate for alleged links to the movement of U.S. based Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, that the TURKISH government accuses of masterminding last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the charges seem over exaggerated, as it is highly unlikely that a U.S. consulate member would enter into espionage and attempt to overthrow the constitutional order and TURKISH government. However, in my opinion, TURKEY and the U.S. have now entered into bitch slapping games of you screw me and I will screw you until we are both black and blue completely bruised in need of paramedics to reduce inflamations from anal retentive constipations and irritations of rashes from constant bashes. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claiming that SPIES had infiltrated U.S. missions in TURKEY and that TURKEY did not consider the U.S. ambassador to TURKEY, John Bass, to be a legitimate representative of the U.S., this is further evidence that trust, respect and loyalty between TURKEY and the U.S. have disintegrated from the Cold Ware peaks against RUSSIA as TURKEY and the U.S. no longer share neither values nor personal, financial and political interests. This situation perfectly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby to the extent personal, financial and political interests are not shared, it is acceptable to shit all over your oppositions heads without even having the courtesy to at least offer toilet paper to clean the residue stains but rather choose to enter into a smearing campaign. In my opinion, without a common opposition of RUSSIA, the U.S. and TURKEY actually have very little in common today as the world has changed significantly from Christmas of 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated. In my opinion, TURKEY, a NATO ally, now works more closely with IRAN and RUSSIA whose leaders are intent on weakening the U.S. alliance in SYRIA as the U.S. fights ISIS with SYRIAN KURDISH forces who the TURKS believe to be an offshoot of the KURDISH PKK organization that has waged war against TURKEY since 1984. Therefore, the strategic relationship between TURKEY and the U.S. has now been reduced to U.S. access to Incirlik Air Base in TURKEY from which the U.S. and its allies conduct operations against ISIS that the Turks have threatened on numerous occasions to rescind permission to use. In my opinion, this situation perfectly reflects the new geopolitical landscape in the region of you punish me and I will punish you with the ultimate soap opera screw of turning to your opposition to maintain a mistress while flaunting relations in public space to essentially spit in your face.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this week ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by the IRAQI military who seems to have been able to retake HAWIJA, the main town in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. In my opinion, IRAQI troops still need to thoroughly patrol all regions that have been liberated in HAWIJA as ISIS militants could very well still be hiding in underground tunnels or remote regions in order to attack the IRAQI troops once again when the IRAQI troops let their guard down. In my opinion, over 100 villages in the outskirts of HAWIJA still need to be purged to finalize the liberation of HAWIJA as to the extent armed ISIS militants are still at large, the liberation of HAWIJA cannot be deemed completed. Nonetheless, with around 560 ISIS militants killed and more than 100 regions liberated, the operations in HAWIJA by the IRAQI military were quite impressive by taking over control of more than 80% of the HAWIJA territory by focusing on the ISIS strongholds in the region. However, now that ISIS has pretty much fallen in HAWIJA, ISIS is left with only a stretch of the EUPHRATES river valley around AL-QAIM in the western desert near the border with SYRIA. Nonetheless, ISIS still controls large parts of the valley in the neighbouring SYRIAN province of DEIR AL-ZOUR although ISIS is under pressure there from both SYRIAN government forces under President Bashar al-Assad and a US backed alliance of KURDISH and ARAB fighters such that it appears just a matter of time before ISIS control over neighbouring DEIR AL-ZOUR also collapses. However, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that did not call on IRAQI KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence on September 25, 2017 as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN that all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because of fear of an IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces, who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS, seem to both be open to pursue further dialogue as opposed to war. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. However, in my opinion, the build-up this week of IRAQI forces along with IRANIAN trained paramilitaries deploying heavy weaponry in KIRKUK, the jewel of the proposed future KURDISTAN state, is quite disturbing given that the build up includes tanks, heavy artillery, Humvees and mortars. Given that the IRAQI led forces are approximately 3 kilometers from KURDISH YPG front line positions, the IRAQI army could very well have the intentions to take over nearby oil fields, the airport and the military base. In my opinion, the moves by the IRAQI government this week are more provocative than last week with IRAQ’s air embargo suspending international flights to and from the KURDISTAN Region in addition to other IRAQI measures amounting to collective punishment on the people of KURDISTAN for voting in majority favour of separation from IRAQ. In my opinion, KURDISTAN continues calling on the IRAQI government for dialogue and peaceful means to settle their differences such that the international community too must denounce the IRAQI military deployments and pressure the IRAQI government to return to the negotiating table as using force would benefit no one. As a friendly reminder, escaping the from the brutalities of the ISIS regime, nearly two million IRAQIS and SYRIANS found safety in KURDISTAN who are now once again living in fear as tensions rise between KURDISTAN and IRAQ after the referendum. In my opinion, the situation in KURDISTAN illustrates the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economic drive.

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace.

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing.

In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH now focused on targeting ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR after letting ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seems to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, the strikes on ISIS this week around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, losing AL-MAYADEEN might be a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. However, in my opinion, the collateral damage is horrendous as those who managed to escape state that conditions inside DEIR AL-ZOR have deteriorated with food, water, medicine and electricity all growing scarce while trapped civilians are unable to reach passage zones to safety, shelter and protection. Therefore, these innocent civilians face the bleak choice of staying in DEIR AL-ZOR engulfed by conflict or fleeing through the fighting with either choice bearing a high risk of death from being caught in the crossfires. In regards to the attack that destroyed the UNICEF supported vaccine cold room in AL-MAYADEEN, this will likely cripple efforts to protect children from a range of life threatening diseases including measles and polio as AL-MAYADEEN is at the center of an outbreak of polio which has so far paralyzed 48 children since March of 2017. Unfortunately, after all of this suffering, in my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind. Nonetheless, the strength of the ISIS terrorists is running out as their defeats thus far in RAQQA have undermined their morale and prevented them from fighting back effectively other than hiding behind innocent civilians as human shields. Therefore, in my opinion, it is just a matter of time for the whole of RAQQA to be liberated from ISIS when the ISIS terrorists will not have any places left to hide.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 268” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby if you vote to separate without proper authorization from the federation, your lives will be made miserable with collective punishment inflicted on the mass for supporting the local bad ass who launched the referendum dash on the presumption that the jewel of KIRKUK would remain part of the future KURDISTAN which is critical to finance autonomy as one cannot eat dirt to survive but rather one needs oil to fuel the economy.