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26 octobre 2021 2 26 /10 /octobre /2021 09:39
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 436

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 436” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby former U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with former U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 68,500, with total over 7,772,600 cases, as over 243.2 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 4,942,600 people dead, while TURKEY’s central bank, delivered bigger than expected interest rate cut, move that saw TURKISH Lira hit new all-time low, as latest in string of policy moves, have seen investors punish TURKISH Lira, while economists warn of even more inflation pain for TURKISH consumers, as prices in TURKEY have been soaring, with TURKEY’s annual inflation rate running at 20%, while SAUDI ARABIA may be trying to reduce its dependency on oil, with plans to convert an oil rig into a 150,000 square meter extreme park & resort, located in Arabian Gulf, comprised of three hotels & 11 restaurants, spread over number of connected platforms, as well as roller coaster rides & adrenaline-rush activities, like bungee jumping and skydiving, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 125,050 people in IRAN, with over 5,851,700 confirmed cases, while RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hosted new ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for pair’s first in-person meeting, with talks focused on IRAN and situation in SYRIA. 
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to the leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in north-western SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, that have backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be thorn in everybody’s sides. Thus, in my opinion, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to concede defeat.
However, in my opinion, it was shocking to see more than 70,000 people being forced to leave their homes in SYRIA, as TURKISH forces pushed further into the northeast of SYRIA against KURDISH YPG forces. Thus, in my opinion, the fighting that had been raging, as TURKISH forces had pounded KURDSH YPG forces relentlessly with air raids and artillery fire amid heavy fighting cannot be justified. In my opinion, the TURKISH government considering the KURDISH YPG as terrorists, by association to the KURDISH PKK, although the KURDISH YPG was the primary U.S. ally in the war against ISIS is absurd. Hence, in my opinion, it is obvious that over thirty years of bad blood between TURKEY and the KURDISH PKK has clouded TURKEY’s judgement to the point that they are unable to remain objective and impartial as concerns the KURDS such that their personal animosities have taken control and thus all KURDS are now seen as part of the terrorist mole. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG see the barrage of attacks by TURKEY as a U.S. betrayal and a knife in the back given that the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY took advantage of opening to pursue its goal of 20 miles deep “safe zone” along SYRIAN side of border being cleared of all KURDISH YPG fighters, where TURKEY wants to resettle up to two million SYRIAN refugees currently living in TURKEY. However, in my opinion, given that the TURKISH government fears KURDISH YPG forces in SYRIA will link up with Kurdish PKK rebels in TURKEY, who have been fighting for a breakaway KURDISH state for decades, TURKEY has become in substance paranoid, anxious and delusional schizophrenics as concerns the KURDS.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY reached an agreement with the U.S. to pause its military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces because TURKEY believes that it is closer to formally designating a safe zone along its border with SYRIA. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH fighters anticipated retaining parts of safe zone territories after having defeated ISIS with U.S. military support. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump stood by TURKEY’s ultimatum by stating that TURKEY has done what the U.S. has asked TURKEY to do. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see KURDISH YPG fighters completing their withdrawal from areas along the SYRIAN border. However, in my opinion, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN troops have moved into the border zone following the KURDISH YPG withdrawal, as the KURDISH YPG forces have now turned to RUSSIA and SAA government forces for protection. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing frustration that the world did not offer what he saw as sufficient support for TURKEY’s invasion of northern SYRIA, a measure he argued was designed to resettle refugees fleeing SYRIA’s eight-year conflict, is not surprising. In my opinion, the TURKISH leader played the victim card to Hollywood perfection by accusing foreign powers of prioritizing an oil grab in SYRIA over humanitarian causes, by stating that none of the efforts to protect oil wells has been spent on children fleeing barrels bombs, while arguing that when TURKEY did not see the support TURKEY wanted from the international community in the face of this sad picture, TURKEY had to take care of itself. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s comments were a discreet jab at U.S. President Donald Trump, who refused to back TURKEY’s operation against KURDISH forces but instead withdrew U.S. troops further east to maintain control of oil fields. Thus, TURKEY has entered into a trilateral peace process with top SYRIAN international supporters consisting of RUSSIA and IRAN, while the U.S. has focused its efforts on ISIS while essentially avoiding the SAA under the command of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad.
In regard to TURKEY making it clear that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 68,500 with a total of over 7,772,600 cases.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKISH authorities have imposed new measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In my opinion, TURKEY took necessary measures with mandatory facemasks on public transport, in markets and other communal spaces, along with 31 cities now being closed to all but essential traffic. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY needs to remain vigilant as TURKEY has now become the sixth highest number of cases worldwide as over 243.2 million people have fallen ill globally, and more than 4,942,600 people have died.
In my opinion, it was not surprising that FRANCE’s growing disagreement with TURKEY over the LIBYAN civil war has exposed cracks in the NATO military alliance and raised questions over what FRANCE is seeking to achieve in the region. That is, in my opinion, FRANCE was the only European country considered to be a supporter of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who launched a more than yearlong offensive on TRIPOLI to replace the UN-backed government. Thus, in my opinion, the dispute with TURKEY has escalated as TURKEY’s military intervention backing LIBYA’s Government of National Accord (GNA) shifted the dynamics of the LIBYAN conflict, with General Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffering a string of defeats. However, in my opinion, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron insists FRANCE has now adopted a neutral stance and that it fully supports the U.N. supported peace process in LIBYA agreed by international powers in January. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced EGYPT and UAE for supporting forces based in eastern LIBYA, after EGYPT’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met LIBYAN tribesmen who urged EGYPT to intervene in the war. In my opinion, TURKEY has been providing military aid to the U.N. recognised government in the LIBYA conflict, while EGYPT, UAE and RUSSIA have backed its rivals based in the east.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week, TURKEY’s central bank delivered a bigger than expected interest rate cut, a move that saw the TURKISH Lira hit a new all-time low, as the latest in a string of policy moves have seen investors punish the TURKISH Lira while economists warn of even more inflation pain for TURKISH consumers. That is, central bank policymakers led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu, slashed TURKEY’s benchmark interest rate by two percentage points to 16%, a massive cut that exceeded most forecasts. In my opinion, the announcement followed last week’s midnight firing of three central bank policymakers by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has regularly blamed high interest rates for inflation in the country, a view that is contrary to that of most economists. Prices in TURKEY have been soaring, with TURKEY’s annual inflation rate running at 20% in September. In my opinion, three central bank governors have been fired by the government during the last two and a half years, prompting questions by opposition leaders and some of the country’s most important trade groups over the independence of the central bank. In my opinion, the recent rate cut was roundly condemned by opposition leaders on social media stating that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the bureaucrats following him were leading the country towards hunger and that their actions were either signs of a betrayal of the nation or a health problem. The TURKISH Lira has lost more than 20% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year alone, a rapid erosion that has had a domino effect on the rest of the economy, and stirred disturbing memories of an inflationary cycle that gripped TURKEY in the 1990s. In my opinion, there are signs that TURKEY’s economic troubles are already stretching TURKS to the breaking point. People are buying things, but they are mostly buying the things they need, and they are buying larger quantities because they know it will be more expensive the next time they shop. The central bank’s power to control inflation is its interest rate policy. In my opinion, despite calls from economists to keep that rate high, policymakers are lowering borrowing costs, missing their own targets for inflation, which have been around 5%, and producing distrust that is predicated on the real inflation rate, which is at least 20%. In my opinion, in an economy where the central bank appears to accurately gauge inflation, lower policy rates would prompt lower rates in the market as well but what we see in Turkey is the opposite. The central bank is cutting interest rates but it backfires, and it actually increases long term interest rates, as it is building up risk and it’s not consistent with TURKEY’s macroeconomic fundamentals, because when you see your actual inflation rate is about four times higher than your target, you don’t have any room for interest rate cuts.

 

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and downright psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
Therefore, in my opinion, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. Hence, in my opinion, there is no substantive evidence to pin Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, such that the U.S. Democratic Senators should focus on obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump obviously supported SAUDI ARABIA and Crown Prince MBS, while some members of the ruling family and business elite expressed their frustrations with Crown Prince MBS’s leadership, that have increased after recent largest-ever attack on SAUDI ARABIA’s oil infrastructure. In my opinion, the recent oil attack has fuelled discontent among some in elite circles who believe that Crown Prince MBS has sought too tight a grip on power while pursuing an overly aggressive stance towards IRAN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA being ranked as the world’s top ease of doing business improver by the World Bank Group’s Doing Business 2020 Report is not surprising, as it is important to note that the report indicates that SAUDI ARABIA has jumped 72 global positions in “Trading Across Borders”, an indicator which compares the time and cost of exporting and importing goods. Thus, in my opinion, critical reforms have facilitated SAUDI ARABIA’s drive to be positioned as one of the world’s most dynamic logistics hubs. However, in my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s most consistent foreign policy of defending SAUDI ARABIA has helped elevate SAUDI ARABIA on the international stage, as when former U.S. President Donald Trump is not axing legislation, he deems hostile to SAUDI ARABIAN concerns, he is speaking on SAUDI ARABIA’s behalf. Thus, in my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump who places a high priority on the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN relationship, while seeing SAUDI ARABIA as an eager customer for U.S. arms, and a useful proxy in U.S. confrontations with IRAN, made SAUDI ARABIA first official foreign destination of his presidency, where he helped unveil a counterterrorism center run by SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has built up an alliance of personal and political contacts with prominent SAUDI ARABIAN royals and, in particular, Crown Prince MBS. In my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump decided some time ago that he would be in SAUDI ARABIA’s corner, such that there is not any circumstance under which he would feel the need to rethink that strategy.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be coping with rising number of cases as well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting over 8,775 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 548,200. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Hence, after a SAUDI ARABIAN and RUSSIAN truce to stabilise oil markets with a record output cut, it was not surprising to see the two production heavyweights still trading blows in the physical market. That is, in my opinion, as demand is falling, and the competition is getting even tougher, SAUDI ARABIA does not seem to mind enticing buyers with special offers. That is, it was not surprising to see SAUDI ARABIAN Aramco offer refiners in ASIA and EUROPE the option to defer payments for crude cargo deliveries by up to 90 days. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s main advantage in the physical market fight with SAUDI ARABIA is its extensive pipeline network, helping RUSSIA to place oil at cheaper rates compared to its rival SAUDI ARABIA that has to find tankers and pay for transportation.
Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN oil fields are connected to refineries in EUROPE and ASIA such that oil companies have long-term contracts with RUSSIA. Meanwhile, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is subject to freight rates and vessel availability for transportation of its oil. Therefore, in my opinion, although the rivals stated that they were ready to take measures to balance the market by cutting combined output with other OPEC members from May to reduce global supply by 10%, the battle for clients is still going on the ground. Thus, it is not surprising to see the battle raging on the day-to-day current market, rather than in the world of futures prices, as a long-standing battle for market share carries on, particularly in ASIA.
Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA lifted a direct entry ban on expats from 20 countries, a decision taken in February to curb the spread of COVID-19. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ agency for consular affairs said the decision only applied to expats who were fully vaccinated in SAUDI ARABIA before they departed for their home country. The ban exempted SAUDI ARABIAN citizens, foreign diplomats, health practitioners, and their families. In my opinion, expats wanting to return to SAUDI ARABIA should undergo all health measures to ensure they were free from infection, the agency added. The direct entry ban was imposed due to a global surge in cases linked to variants detected in ENGLAND, SOUTH AFRICA and BRAZIL and fears that vaccines being rolled out worldwide might be less effective against them. It covered the UAE, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Japan. In my opinion, it also applied to travelers who had transited through any of the 20 countries in the 14 days before a planned visit to SAUDI ARABIA. Many passengers had been using DUBAI as a transit hub from countries where there were no direct flights to SAUDI ARABIA, an option that was no longer available after the ban came into effect. In my opinion, in addition to the February ban, SAUDI ARABIA health officials warned that stricter measures would be necessary to curb the spread of the virus if the public continued to flout regulations on social distancing and the ban on large gatherings. Over 34.46 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered in SAUDI ARABIA to date through 587 centers. The ministry renewed its call on the public to register with the Sehhaty app to receive the vaccine, and adhere to the measures and abide by instructions. In my opinion, meanwhile, some 40 people were arrested in HAIL for violating preventive measures that stipulate no more than 20 people can gather at one point. Legal measures have been taken against them and penalties were applied against the host, the person in charge of the facility, and everyone who attended the gathering.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion SAUDI ARABIA may be trying to reduce its dependency on oil, but that has not stopped SAUDI ARABIA from using its petroleum industry as inspiration for a brand new tourist attraction. SAUDI ARABIA has announced plans to convert an oil rig into a 150,000 square meter extreme park and resort located in the Arabian Gulf. Funded by SAUDI ARABIA’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Rig will be comprised of three hotels and 11 restaurants spread over a number of connected platforms, as well as roller coaster rides and adrenaline-rush activities like bungee jumping and skydiving. In my opinion, upcoming attractions, which aim to provide a multitude of hospitality offerings, adventures, and aquatic sporting experiences, along with a promotional video, were released. In my opinion, this project is a unique tourism attraction, expected to attract tourists from around the world and is expected to be particularly popular with visitors from the Arabian Gulf region. However, a completion date for the venture has not been stipulated. In my opinion, described as the world’s first tourism destination inspired by offshore oil platforms, the upcoming attraction is being devised in line with the long-term SAUDI ARABIAN Vision 2030 strategy, which aims to reposition SAUDI ARABIA as a top international tourism destination and diversify its economy. However, in my opinion, while millions of religious visitors make the pilgrimage to the SAUDI ARABIAN holy city of Mecca every year, SAUDI ARABIA’s conservative laws restricting women’s freedoms, along with its troubling human rights history have made it a less than favorable destination for many international visitors.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as former U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although former U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
Thus, in my opinion, advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.
Thus, in my opinion, despite the atmosphere of fear and intimidation that the counter-revolutionary forces may have created with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the waves of protests sweeping across ALGERIA and SUDAN suggest that a second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING may very well be underway in the MIDDLE EAST, that bears a similar resemblance to the first wave witnessed in 2011. However, in my opinion, the second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING feels more peaceful in its approach and realistic in its aspirations, as everybody seems to have learned from their mistakes of the past, as everyone is now well aware of the dangers that the militarization of protests poses to the effectiveness of the movement, consisting of prolonged civil wars with significant human casualties and horrendous refugee crises. However, in my opinion, the same underlying motive that drove the first wave of the ARAB SPRING in 2010-2011 now drives the second, consisting of social, political and economic conditions deteriorating, while showing no signs of relief in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, instead of addressing this social and political collapse, many MIDDLE EASTERN countries choose to silence dissident voices that raise these concerns while not only limiting the freedom of speech, but also by now criminalizing the freedom to be silent. Thus, in my opinion, when the freedom to be silent is seen as a form of passive opposition, leading to intellectuals and journalists across the MIDDLE EAST being imprisoned and tortured for refusing to publicly and unconditionally support the existing regime in place, this is a sure sign of existing regimes fearing uprisings through dialogue and free thought within these dictatorial regimes.

 

IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In regard to escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, not surprising to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN presence in SYRIA, to prevent IRAN from gaining permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL, but also for other countries in region, such that IRAN should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from Golan Heights that should be welcomed as positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRAN fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. That is, in my opinion, recent sanctions that target IRAN sales of oil, IRAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN auto sector reflect U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through veins of majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
In my opinion, U.S. withdrawal from 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to negotiating table with U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, not surprising to see former U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that U.S. developing new strategy for war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, new U.S. strategy would probably not involve U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that U.S. military only has right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets, if U.S. feels threatened. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. plan focuses on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing IRAN & SYRIA financially. That is, U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, in my opinion, IRAN heading in direction of weathering storm created by crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN, as IRAN strategy of maintaining status-quo arrangement until fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of fact that he will not be serving a second term in 2020.
In regard to statement by former IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that IRAN would exceed enrichment levels set out under 2015 Nuclear Deal in response to failure by other parties to keep their promises, including providing IRAN with relief from U.S. imposed sanctions, not surprising to see IRAN essentially fighting fire with fire. In my opinion, 3.67% enrichment levels set in 2015 Nuclear Deal is only sufficient for commercial power generation, while far below more than 90% level required for nuclear warhead, such that still room for further negotiations before IRAN hits 90%. It is important to note that the enrichment maximum set in 2015 Nuclear Deal is sufficient for commercial power generation, but far below more than 90% level required for a nuclear warhead. In my opinion, it is not surprising that IRAN enriched uranium to 4.5%, representing enough enrichment for IRAN to power its peaceful, already-active BUSHEHR nuclear reactor, but far short of the 90% threshold for weapons-grade uranium. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN does not currently represent a significant risk for enriching uranium to 90%, as this is an enormous technical challenge that requires building and operating very advanced centrifuges. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN will likely once again be subject to international attempts to sabotage any significant escalation of IRANIAN nuclear efforts, with computer viruses like STUXNET that previously successfully attacked IRANIAN centrifuges.
In my opinion, decision by IRAN to offer deal to U.S. in which IRAN would formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program, in exchange for permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions, not surprising. However, in my opinion, former U.S. President, Donald Trump, demanding that IRAN make a range of sweeping concessions, including cessation of uranium enrichment and support of proxies and allies in the region, obviously rejected offer made by IRAN foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on a visit to NEW YORK. Hence, I believe that in IRAN’s best interests to bring back same IRANIAN Team to renegotiate 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal with new U.S. Administration because they were exceptional in skills last time, while they will now be matched in skills, to renegotiate the sticking points of an end to IRAN’s ballistic missile program and an end to IRAN’s interference in MIDDLE EAST. Therefore, only time will tell where gridlock will lead, as former U.S. President, Donald Trump will likely abstain from striking IRAN knowing full well that Jimmy Carter’s attempt for second term as President was destroyed by IRAN hostage crisis in 1980, that essentially unseated an American President. However, in my opinion, former U.S. President, Donald Trump seems to be first U.S. President since 1980, who is willing to allow IRAN to flourish, to extent IRAN focuses on promoting business and prosperity in MIDDLE EAST, as opposed to conflicts and further civil wars.
Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions and maximum pressure campaign are forcing IRAN to focus on its own problems, as for years, IRAN was one of chief enablers and financiers of NORTH KOREAN nuclear and ballistic threat. However, in my opinion, with 50% inflation and food prices that have risen 85%, IRAN does not have excess cash IRAN once had to engage in disruption. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. has made right moves with regards to IRAN but what IRAN will do next will be absolutely critical, as imminent threat comes from IRAN Defense Ministry that warned that any ISRAELI involvement in U.S. led naval operation into Strait of Hormuz, would have disastrous consequences for MIDDLE EAST. Nonetheless, in my opinion, IRAN President Hassan Rouhani kept door open to diplomacy, by backing EUROPEAN efforts to salvage 2015 Nuclear Deal. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN agreed to a four-point plan for talks with U.S. during U.N. General Assembly because FRANCE, who is considered by IRAN to be a neutral party, brokered the plan. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see former IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani confirm that the four-point program stipulated that IRAN should not seek nuclear weapons, should abide by regional peace, help to contribute to peace, and, in exchange, the U.S. would lift all sanctions against IRAN and allow IRANIAN exports immediately, as the lifting of sanctions immediately forms the backbone of the plan. Unfortunately, in my opinion, IRAN further distanced itself from 2015 Nuclear Deal, as IRAN stepped up its activity, at its underground FORDOW nuclear plant, a move that FRANCE stated clearly demonstrated for first time, that IRAN explicitly planned to quit a deal with world powers that curbed its disputed nuclear work.
In my opinion, obvious that IRAN operates in grey zone as concerns decisions towards U.S., as IRAN takes decisions between peace and open military conflict, by denying use of force to minimize consequences and future escalations. Thus, in my opinion, given that IRAN has been able to survive U.S. imposed sanctions that have now reached a climax, with limited possibilities for additional future sanctions, the U.S. should contest IRAN in gray zone. That is, in my opinion, to restore deterrence while minimizing risks of escalations, U.S. should consider using limited U.S. military actions that fly under radar screen like IRAN, but which IRAN still recognizes as executed by U.S. In my opinion, U.S. should adopt a similar military policy like IRAN to operate in grey zone with covert military strikes on strategic assets, without accepting any formal responsibilities, in order to minimize risk of a full-blown military conflict. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN and RUSSIA obviously condemned former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain a military presence near oil fields in northeastern SYRIA, with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov stating that any exploitation of oil resources by the U.S. would be deemed illegal. In my opinion, the U.S. obviously stated that the return of U.S. forces to SYRIA, after their transfer to IRAQ, was under the pretext of protecting oil deposits from ISIS.
However, in my opinion, U.S. imposed sanctions on additional senior IRANIAN officials for human rights abuses, as former U.S. President Donald Trump increased its maximum pressure campaign on IRAN by imposing sanctions on judges, was not surprising. In my opinion, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was forced to denounce the recent violent crackdown by IRANIAN authorities against widespread protests, as the U.S. targeted two top IRANIAN judges with penalties, as former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assailed IRANIAN officials for hypocrisy, by depriving citizens, particularly ethnic and religious minorities of their constitutional rights. However, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see former IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani warning that his nuclear experts are testing advanced centrifuges while claiming that the IRANIAN economy is rebounding despite crippling U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, rising tensions between IRAN and U.S. are not a signal that diplomacy will fail but rather represent a warning that negotiations are a must and soon.
In my opinion, protests in IRAN came at delicate time, in tense standoff, between the U.S. and IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, with IRANIAN elections, and without any U.S. agreement to desist from U.S. imposed sanctions, the current IRANIAN government might well lose all of its influence, in favour of far more confrontational hard-liners. Thus, in my opinion, it appears that U.S. and IRAN have drawn diametrically opposed interpretations of upheaval’s causes and consequences, rendering any effort at de-escalation unlikely. Hence, in my opinion, the unrest, triggered by an abrupt hike in fuel prices, quickly evolved into a violent nationwide revolt against ruling IRANIAN order. Thus, in my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump saw austerity measure as a direct result of its maximum pressure policy, and cried success, as in U.S. minds, the stifling impact of U.S. imposed sanctions had prompted public ire, and could soon persuade IRAN’s leaders to alter their domestic and foreign policies in order to retain power.
In regards to airstrikes that hit Baghdad International Airport, whereby IRANIAN PMF group leaders were killed by U.S. including Senior General, Qassem Soleimani; Deputy Commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis; and Protocol Officer and Head of Public Relations, Mohammed Reza al-Jaberi, in my opinion, tensions are obviously at an all-time high in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump took responsibility for the assassination on the basis that the U.S. military took decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel by killing Senior General, Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, former U.S. President Donald Trump justified U.S. actions on the basis that Senior General, Qassem Soleimani killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more while blaming Senior General Qassem Soleimani for being directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people. However, in my opinion, the U.S. was now forced to send 3,000 additional troops to the MIDDLE EAST amid rising tensions in the region following this assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif obviously condemned the assassination by stating that the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism. Thus, in my opinion, the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital point for American destroyers and warships, now represent 35 vital U.S. targets in the region for IRAN as well as TEL AVIV, ISRAEL.
In regard to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 5,851,700 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 125,050 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak.  Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 125,050 people in IRAN, with over 5,851,700 confirmed cases.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 5,851,700 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Furthermore, in my opinion, with ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN locked in a fresh conflict over the contested region of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, neighbouring IRAN finds itself in a delicate balancing act, with political, historical and ethnic considerations. IRAN’s official stance, after having tried to resolve the long-running conflict in previous decades through diplomatic means, remains one of mediation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. In my opinion, IRAN also recognises several United Nations resolutions that stipulate NAGORNO-KARABAKH, which is controlled by ethnic ARMENIANS backed by ARMENIA, is part of AZERBAIJAN and that occupied AZERI lands must be returned. In my opinion, the region broke away from AZERBAIJAN in a war during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s but is not recognised by any country as an independent country, including ARMENIA. IRAN, which shares borders with both ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN, reassured AZERBAIJAN that it recognises its territorial integrity and that it holds an important place in IRANIAN foreign policy. In my opinion, former IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani also had a phone call with ARMENIAN Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian to call for conflict resolution through political discourse and international laws. However, there have been allegations that IRAN supports ARMENIA, which in turn is supported by RUSSIA. In my opinion, videos circulating on social media purportedly showed military equipment being transferred to ARMENIA via trucks passing through an IRANIAN border pass. However, IRAN quickly denied the allegations, saying they were baseless rumours aimed at smearing relations with AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, IRANIAN state television broadcast footage from the NORDOOZ border terminal where the vehicles in question were. They were shown to be Russian Kamaz trucks, which a local official said had been purchased by ARMENIA before the conflict and were being transported through IRAN. The trucks were shown to be carrying vehicle parts. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several rockets and shelling from the NAGORNO-KARABAKH fighting have landed on IRANIAN soil, with several shells hitting a residential area close to the border for the first time, injuring a six-year-old. In my opinion, IRANIAN foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reacted to the incident, saying the country will not tolerate the conflict spilling into its borders. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a current member of the parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, also believes the conflict cannot be resolved through anything but negotiations. According to Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, the two countries must put an end to fighting through peaceful means and negotiations that do not include other countries, like the U.S. and ISRAEL, that don’t want the region to be peaceful. Fighting in the region will certainly be to the detriment of IRAN as well, such that IRAN must work toward ending the conflict.
Meanwhile, this week, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has hosted new ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for the pair’s first in-person meeting, with talks focused on IRAN and the situation in SYRIA. In my opinion, welcoming ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the start of their meeting in RUSSIA’s Black Sea resort of SOCHI, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hailed RUSSIAN-ISRAELI ties as unique and praised the very deep connection between peoples. RUSSIA and ISRAEL have developed close political, economic and cultural bonds. In my opinion, they have cooperated over the war in SYRIA, during which RUSSIA teamed up with IRAN to shore up SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s rule. ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that ISRAEL will talk about the situation in SYRIA, and the efforts to halt the IRANIAN military nuclear programme. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin said that RUSSIA, which launched its military campaign in SYRIA in 2015, has been making efforts to restore SYRIA’s statehood and to strengthen it, such that there was common ground and opportunities for cooperation with ISRAEL concerning the situation there, especially in terms of the fight against terrorism. ISRAEL views IRANIAN entrenchment on its northern frontier as a red line and has repeatedly struck what it says are IRAN-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH. The IRAN-backed group has fought alongside SYRIAN government forces in the SYRIA’s civil war. In my opinion, RUSSIA and ISRAEL established a military hotline to coordinate air force operations over SYRIA to avoid clashes, but in 2018, their ties were tested by the downing of a RUSSIAN warplane by SYRIAN forces following an ISRAELI air raid. The forces mistook a RUSSIAN reconnaissance plane for ISRAELI jets such that all 15 members of the RUSSIAN crew died. Meanwhile, in my opinion, RUSSIA has attempted to maintain friendly ties with IRAN, ISRAEL’s regional rival. ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin that ISRAEL viewed him as a true friend of the Jewish people and emphasised the deep connection between their two countries. In my opinion, ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett extolled the contribution made by ISRAEL’s one million Russian speakers and praised RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin for bringing ISRAEL and RUSSIA closer during his 20-year rule. ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also hailed the RUSSIAN role in defeating the NAZIS in World War II and talked about a new museum in ISRAEL that honours Jewish soldiers who fought in allied armies, primarily the Red Army as RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin cherishes RUSSIA’s decisive contribution to victory in that war.
However, in my opinion, it is impossible to claim that the IRANIAN government is solely responsible for the devastation COVID-19 has caused in IRAN. That is, in my opinion, the U.S. maximum pressure strategy against IRAN that commenced two years ago has placed IRAN under strict economic sanctions that limit its ability to trade with other nations. Furthermore, in my opinion, these sanctions, which choked off IRAN’s oil exports, crippled its economy and practically pushed it out of the international banking system, made it impossible for IRAN to swiftly take the necessary medical, economic and social measures to protect its citizens from COVID-19. In my opinion, the role U.S. sanctions have played, and continue to play, in the devastation caused by COVID-19 in IRAN led to renewed discussions on the effectiveness, legality and legitimacy of sanctions not only in IRAN and the U.S., but also across the world. Thus, in my opinion, in IRAN, the IRANIAN government admitted that the sanctions make it difficult to obtain vital medical supplies and equipment to treat COVID-19 patients and called for their immediate lifting. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN frustrations were evident as IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the U.S. has moved from economic terrorism to medical terror by declining to lift the sanctions after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN and thus urging the international community to stop aiding war crimes by obeying illegal and immoral sanctions.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 436” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby former U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with former U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 68,500, with total over 7,772,600 cases, as over 243.2 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 4,942,600 people dead, while TURKEY’s central bank, delivered bigger than expected interest rate cut, move that saw TURKISH Lira hit new all-time low, as latest in string of policy moves, have seen investors punish TURKISH Lira, while economists warn of even more inflation pain for TURKISH consumers, as prices in TURKEY have been soaring, with TURKEY’s annual inflation rate running at 20%, while SAUDI ARABIA may be trying to reduce its dependency on oil, with plans to convert an oil rig into a 150,000 square meter extreme park & resort, located in Arabian Gulf, comprised of three hotels & 11 restaurants, spread over number of connected platforms, as well as roller coaster rides & adrenaline-rush activities, like bungee jumping and skydiving, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 125,050 people in IRAN, with over 5,851,700 confirmed cases, while RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hosted new ISRAELI Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for pair’s first in-person meeting, with talks focused on IRAN and situation in SYRIA.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
October 31, 2021
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26 août 2021 4 26 /08 /août /2021 12:24
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 435

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 435” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 55,000, with total over 6,253,800 cases, as over 214.3 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 4,469,800 people dead, while TALIBAN have asked all countries, primarily TURKEY, to help AFGHAN people & AFGHANISTAN, as AFGHAN people have been at war for 40 years & thus need help, while U.S. led NATO troops ready to completely withdraw from war-torn country, whereas over 34.46 million doses of coronavirus vaccine administered in SAUDI ARABIA to date, albeit call on public to register to receive vaccine, & adhere to measures & abide by instructions, albeit some 40 people arrested for violating preventive measures that stipulate no more than 20 people can gather at one point, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 104,100 people in IRAN, with over 4,796,400 confirmed cases, as IRAN restarted fuel exports to AFGHANISTAN that had been disrupted by fighting between TALIBAN & forces under now deposed AFGHAN government, with TALIBAN now providing critical dollars to sanctions-crushed IRANIAN economy from its lucrative narcotics operations.

 

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

TURKEY shifted focus to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last three plus years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira.
Thus, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, news from TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak urging foreign investors to once again put their funds into TURKEY’s expanding economy is not surprising, as TURKISH companies are cushioned against bankruptcy, with cash reserves that add up to US$ 6.5 billion more than their debts while TURKEY’s own debt levels are also low compared to other countries. In my opinion, although there is a recession going on right now in TURKEY, it has not yet turned into an economic crisis, despite all of the instability and incredible fall in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Furthermore, in my opinion, most economies would have collapsed, but TURKEY has a very dynamic economy given that TURKISH people seem to have grown accustomed to instability. Nonetheless, it appears that TURKEY will now likely be facing an L-Type crisis consisting of an economic downturn characterized by a sharp decline followed by a slow recovery that takes at least two years to return to healthy growth levels.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may remain convinced that his enemies are out to get him, but it is difficult to hold foreign powers responsible for TURKEY remaining in recession, following a disastrous 2018 and 2019 TURKISH Lira currency crisis, along with current fears that a new financial crunch is imminent, as unemployment and inflation in TURKEY are elevated, while business is depressed. Thus, in my opinion, the TURKISH central bank cutting its key policy interest rate to 19.75%, from 24%, and setting the stage for more, was not surprising. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak made it clear that with the important reduction of interest rates in TURKEY, and based on the fact that the interest rate trend will come down more strongly in the future, TURKEY has entered a period of interest rate cuts, while stressing that the TURKISH central bank makes its monetary policy and interest rate decisions based on its own data set. However, in my opinion, TURKEY was forced to lower interest rates as economic confidence in TURKEY fell below 100 indicating pessimism about the future among businesses and consumers.
In regard to TURKEY making it clear that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 55,000 with a total of over 6,253,800 cases.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKISH authorities have imposed new measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In my opinion, TURKEY took necessary measures with mandatory facemasks on public transport, in markets and other communal spaces, along with 31 cities now being closed to all but essential traffic. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY needs to remain vigilant as TURKEY has now become the seventh highest number of cases worldwide as over 214.3 million people have fallen ill globally, and more than 4,469,800 people have died.
In my opinion, it was not surprising that this week FRANCE’s growing disagreement with TURKEY over the LIBYAN civil war has exposed cracks in the NATO military alliance and raised questions over what FRANCE is seeking to achieve in the region. That is, in my opinion, FRANCE was the only European country considered to be a supporter of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who launched a more than yearlong offensive on TRIPOLI to replace the UN-backed government. Thus, in my opinion, the dispute with TURKEY has escalated as TURKEY’s military intervention backing LIBYA’s Government of National Accord (GNA) shifted the dynamics of the LIBYAN conflict, with General Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffering a string of defeats in recent weeks. However, in my opinion, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron insists FRANCE has now adopted a neutral stance and that it fully supports the U.N. supported peace process in LIBYA agreed by international powers in January. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced EGYPT and UAE for supporting forces based in eastern LIBYA, after EGYPT’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met LIBYAN tribesmen who urged EGYPT to intervene in the war. In my opinion, TURKEY has been providing military aid to the U.N. recognised government in the LIBYA conflict, while EGYPT, UAE and RUSSIA have backed its rivals based in the east.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week, the TALIBAN have asked all countries, primarily TURKEY, to help the AFGHAN people and AFGHANISTAN, the spokesperson of the TALIBAN’s Political Bureau in QATAR, Mohammad Naeem Wardak stated. Following the TALIBAN’s takeover of the capital KABUL and their rule in AFGHANISTAN, Mohammad Naeem Wardak spoke on many issues such as TURKEY’s role, the messages the TALIBAN gave at home and abroad, the rights of women and minorities, the form the administration would take and those who have fled the country. In my opinion, Mohammad Naeem Wardak stated that TURKEY is an important country, TURKISH people are Muslims and a brotherly people with whom the TALIBAN have historical, social and cultural relations. Mohammad Naeem Wardak added that they want to improve relations in the future and that the TALIBAN is in communication with TURKEY. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also stated that if needed TURKEY can meet with the TALIBAN as when there is a knock on the door on this issue, TURKEY will open its door and conduct its negotiations. The TURKISH government has taken a pragmatic approach to the recent events in AFGHANISTAN while underlining that new realities have emerged in AFGHANISTAN, such that TURKEY will move forward accordingly while keeping communication with all relevant actors open. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the moderate statements made by Taliban officials and announced that TURKEY is ready to cooperate with all parties to ensure peace and stability. TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY’s military’s presence in the country will strengthen the new AFGHAN administration’s hand in the international arena and TURKISH troops would protect KABUL Hamid Karzai International Airport and ensure that evacuations continue in a safe and peaceful manner. In my opinion, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also stated that TURKEY would act in coordination with the international community on its position on the recognition of the new government in AFGHANISTAN. Mohammad Naeem Wardak, in answering the question about whether the Taliban needed Turkey’s support, stated that there is no doubt about it, AFGHANISTAN wants this support as the AFGHAN people have been at war for 40 years and they need help such that AFGHANISTAN asks all countries of the world, especially TURKEY, to help AFGHAN people and AFGHANISTAN. In my opinion, while the U.S.-led NATO troops are ready to completely withdraw from the war-torn country, TURKEY, whose forces in AFGHANISTAN have always been comprised of non-combatant troops, has offered to guard and run KABUL airport after the NATO troops withdrawal.

 

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and downright psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
In regard to SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MAKKAH and MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all-time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. In regard to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak disrupting the world economy, with fewer planes flying, ships sailing and factories producing, it is not surprising to see recent declines in oil prices. However, in my opinion, when oil prices commence plummeting, they tend to bring world stock prices down with them. In my opinion, the main reason why coronavirus (COVID-19) is a threat to oil prices is that CHINA is the main new consumer of oil in the world, as CHINA alone contributes about 33% of new consumption of oil each year, and ASIA more broadly about 50% of new consumption. Therefore, in my opinion, if the demand for oil slows down in the region because people are not travelling or factories are not producing as a result of coronavirus (COVID-19), oil prices will inevitably sink.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be coping with rising number of cases as well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting over 8,600 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 543,100. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Hence, this week, after a SAUDI ARABIAN and RUSSIAN truce to stabilise oil markets with a record output cut, it was not surprising to see the two production heavyweights still trading blows in the physical market. That is, in my opinion, as demand is falling, and the competition is getting even tougher, SAUDI ARABIA does not seem to mind enticing buyers with special offers. That is, it was not surprising to see SAUDI ARABIAN Aramco offer refiners in ASIA and EUROPE the option to defer payments for crude cargo deliveries by up to 90 days. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s main advantage in the physical market fight with SAUDI ARABIA is its extensive pipeline network, helping RUSSIA to place oil at cheaper rates compared to its rival SAUDI ARABIA that has to find tankers and pay for transportation.
Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN oil fields are connected to refineries in EUROPE and ASIA such that oil companies have long-term contracts with RUSSIA. Meanwhile, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is subject to freight rates and vessel availability for transportation of its oil. Therefore, in my opinion, although the rivals stated that they were ready to take measures to balance the market by cutting combined output with other OPEC members from May to reduce global supply by 10%, the battle for clients is still going on the ground. Thus, it is not surprising to see the battle raging on the day-to-day current market, rather than in the world of futures prices, as a long-standing battle for market share carries on, particularly in ASIA.
Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA was forced to impose 24-hour curfews over some SAUDI ARABIAN cities including the capital of RIYADH. In my opinion, it is shocking to see the biggest economy in the MIDDLE EAST also close down cinemas, malls and restaurants and halt flights as it steps up efforts to contain COVID-19. Hence, in my opinion, King Salman hit the nail on the head by warning of a more difficult fight ahead against COVID-19, as SAUDI ARABIA faces the double blow of an economic standstill and crashing oil prices. That is, oil prices have plummeted because of the global economic shutdown, while SAUDI ARABIA and RUSSIA have pumped oil relentlessly in a war for market share.
Furthermore, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA lifted a direct entry ban on expats from 20 countries, a decision taken in February to curb the spread of COVID-19. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ agency for consular affairs said the decision only applied to expats who were fully vaccinated in SAUDI ARABIA before they departed for their home country. The ban exempted SAUDI ARABIAN citizens, foreign diplomats, health practitioners, and their families. In my opinion, expats wanting to return to SAUDI ARABIA should undergo all health measures to ensure they were free from infection, the agency added. The direct entry ban was imposed due to a global surge in cases linked to variants detected in ENGLAND, SOUTH AFRICA and BRAZIL and fears that vaccines being rolled out worldwide might be less effective against them. It covered the UAE, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Japan. In my opinion, it also applied to travelers who had transited through any of the 20 countries in the 14 days before a planned visit to SAUDI ARABIA. Many passengers had been using DUBAI as a transit hub from countries where there were no direct flights to SAUDI ARABIA, an option that was no longer available after the ban came into effect. In my opinion, in addition to the February ban, SAUDI ARABIA health officials warned that stricter measures would be necessary to curb the spread of the virus if the public continued to flout regulations on social distancing and the ban on large gatherings. Over 34.46 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered in SAUDI ARABIA to date through 587 centers. The ministry renewed its call on the public to register with the Sehhaty app to receive the vaccine, and adhere to the measures and abide by instructions. In my opinion, meanwhile, some 40 people were arrested in HAIL for violating preventive measures that stipulate no more than 20 people can gather at one point. Legal measures have been taken against them and penalties were applied against the host, the person in charge of the facility, and everyone who attended the gathering.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
Thus, in my opinion, advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.
Thus, in my opinion, despite the atmosphere of fear and intimidation that the counter-revolutionary forces may have created with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the waves of protests sweeping across ALGERIA and SUDAN suggest that a second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING may very well be underway in the MIDDLE EAST, that bears a similar resemblance to the first wave witnessed in 2011. However, in my opinion, the second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING feels more peaceful in its approach and realistic in its aspirations, as everybody seems to have learned from their mistakes of the past, as everyone is now well aware of the dangers that the militarization of protests poses to the effectiveness of the movement, consisting of prolonged civil wars with significant human casualties and horrendous refugee crises. However, in my opinion, the same underlying motive that drove the first wave of the ARAB SPRING in 2010-2011 now drives the second, consisting of social, political and economic conditions deteriorating, while showing no signs of relief in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, instead of addressing this social and political collapse, many MIDDLE EASTERN countries choose to silence dissident voices that raise these concerns while not only limiting the freedom of speech, but also by now criminalizing the freedom to be silent. Thus, in my opinion, when the freedom to be silent is seen as a form of passive opposition, leading to intellectuals and journalists across the MIDDLE EAST being imprisoned and tortured for refusing to publicly and unconditionally support the existing regime in place, this is a sure sign of existing regimes fearing uprisings through dialogue and free thought within these dictatorial regimes.
IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In regard to escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, not surprising to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN presence in SYRIA, to prevent IRAN from gaining permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL, but also for other countries in region, such that IRAN should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from Golan Heights that should be welcomed as positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRAN fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. That is, in my opinion, recent sanctions that target IRAN sales of oil, IRAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN auto sector reflect U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through veins of majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions and maximum pressure campaign are forcing IRAN to focus on its own problems, as for years, IRAN was one of chief enablers and financiers of NORTH KOREAN nuclear and ballistic threat. However, in my opinion, with 50% inflation and food prices that have risen 85%, IRAN does not have excess cash IRAN once had to engage in disruption. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. has made right moves with regards to IRAN but what IRAN will do next will be absolutely critical, as imminent threat comes from IRAN Defense Ministry that warned that any ISRAELI involvement in U.S. led naval operation into Strait of Hormuz, would have disastrous consequences for MIDDLE EAST. Nonetheless, in my opinion, IRAN President Hassan Rouhani kept door open to diplomacy, by backing EUROPEAN efforts to salvage 2015 Nuclear Deal. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN agreed to a four-point plan for talks with U.S. during U.N. General Assembly because FRANCE, who is considered by IRAN to be a neutral party, brokered the plan. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani confirm that the four-point program stipulated that IRAN should not seek nuclear weapons, should abide by regional peace, help to contribute to peace, and, in exchange, the U.S. would lift all sanctions against IRAN and allow IRANIAN exports immediately, as the lifting of sanctions immediately forms the backbone of the plan. Unfortunately, in my opinion, IRAN further distanced itself from 2015 Nuclear Deal, as IRAN stepped up its activity, at its underground FORDOW nuclear plant, a move that FRANCE stated clearly demonstrated for first time, that IRAN explicitly planned to quit a deal with world powers that curbed its disputed nuclear work.
In my opinion, obvious that IRAN operates in grey zone as concerns decisions towards U.S., as IRAN takes decisions between peace and open military conflict, by denying use of force to minimize consequences and future escalations. Thus, in my opinion, given that IRAN has been able to survive U.S. imposed sanctions that have now reached a climax, with limited possibilities for additional future sanctions, the U.S. should contest IRAN in gray zone. That is, in my opinion, to restore deterrence while minimizing risks of escalations, U.S. should consider using limited U.S. military actions that fly under radar screen like IRAN, but which IRAN still recognizes as executed by U.S. In my opinion, U.S. should adopt a similar military policy like IRAN to operate in grey zone with covert military strikes on strategic assets, without accepting any formal responsibilities, in order to minimize risk of a full-blown military conflict. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN and RUSSIA obviously condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain a military presence near oil fields in northeastern SYRIA, with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov stating that any exploitation of oil resources by the U.S. would be deemed illegal. In my opinion, the U.S. obviously stated that the return of U.S. forces to SYRIA, after their transfer to IRAQ, was under the pretext of protecting oil deposits from ISIS.
However, in my opinion, U.S. imposed sanctions on additional senior IRANIAN officials for human rights abuses, as U.S. President Donald Trump increased its maximum pressure campaign on IRAN by imposing sanctions on judges, was not surprising. In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was forced to denounce the recent violent crackdown by IRANIAN authorities against widespread protests, as the U.S. targeted two top IRANIAN judges with penalties, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assailed IRANIAN officials for hypocrisy, by depriving citizens, particularly ethnic and religious minorities of their constitutional rights. However, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani warning that his nuclear experts are testing advanced centrifuges while claiming that the IRANIAN economy is rebounding despite crippling U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, rising tensions between IRAN and U.S. are not a signal that diplomacy will fail but rather represent a warning that negotiations are a must and soon.
In my opinion, protests in IRAN came at delicate time, in tense standoff, between the U.S. and IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, with IRANIAN elections approaching, and without any U.S. agreement to desist from U.S. imposed sanctions, the current IRANIAN government might well lose all of its influence, in favour of far more confrontational hard-liners. Thus, in my opinion, it appears that U.S. and IRAN have drawn diametrically opposed interpretations of upheaval’s causes and consequences, rendering any effort at de-escalation unlikely. Hence, in my opinion, the unrest, triggered by an abrupt hike in fuel prices, quickly evolved into a violent nationwide revolt against ruling IRANIAN order. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump saw austerity measure as a direct result of its maximum pressure policy, and cried success, as in U.S. minds, the stifling impact of U.S. imposed sanctions had prompted public ire, and could soon persuade IRAN’s leaders to alter their domestic and foreign policies in order to retain power.
However, in my opinion, IRAN’s rulers believe that they crushed an American plot when they crushed the unrest quickly and decisively, and that by doing that, they rendered U.S. President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign far less effective. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN leadership is also confident that it has demonstrated its determination to defeat any challenge to its hold on power, by having killed more than 300 protesters and completely shutting down the Internet for more than a week. In addition, in my opinion, recent attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, which the U.S. and its allies have attributed to IRAN, is treated in IRAN as a demonstration of their power at home and throughout the region. Thus, in my opinion, if U.S. President Donald Trump is interested in a deal with IRAN, now is the optimum time, as there is no immediate prospect of a change in IRAN’s government structure, and further instability in IRAN will only render deal-making nearly impossible. Thus, in my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani’s government remains U.S. President Donald Trump’s best bet, and there is only a small window before maximum pressure completely sidelines any possibilities for civilized negotiations and diplomatic resolutions.
In regards to airstrikes that hit Baghdad International Airport, whereby IRANIAN PMF group leaders were killed by U.S. including Senior General, Qassem Soleimani; Deputy Commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis; and Protocol Officer and Head of Public Relations, Mohammed Reza al-Jaberi, in my opinion, tensions are obviously at an all-time high in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump took responsibility for the assassination on the basis that the U.S. military took decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel by killing Senior General, Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump justified U.S. actions on the basis that Senior General, Qassem Soleimani killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more while blaming Senior General Qassem Soleimani for being directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people. However, in my opinion, the U.S. was now forced to send 3,000 additional troops to the MIDDLE EAST amid rising tensions in the region following this assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif obviously condemned the assassination by stating that the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism. Thus, in my opinion, the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital point for American destroyers and warships, now represent 35 vital U.S. targets in the region for IRAN as well as TEL AVIV, ISRAEL.
However, in my opinion, IRAN furor became evident as an IRANIAN legislator offered a US$ 3 million reward to anyone who kills U.S. President Donald Trump to avenge the assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Obviously, in my opinion, the U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood dismissed the reward as ridiculous on the basis that it demonstrated the terrorist underpinnings of IRAN’s government. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh, the little-known member of IRANIAN parliament, offered the US$ 3 million bounty on behalf of the people of KERMAN, based on sentimental attachments as the hometown and final resting place of the revered Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh also stated that IRAN should start producing nuclear weapons and delivery systems to protect it, in order to capitalize on the anti-American sentiment currently flogging the mass IRANIAN populace. In addition, Ahmad Hamzeh capitalized on IRANIAN resentment towards the Americans by stating that if IRAN had nuclear weapons today IRAN would be protected from threats, such that IRAN should put the production of long-range missiles capable of carrying unconventional warheads on its military agenda, as the natural right of IRAN to protect itself from the U.S. Thus, in my opinion, tensions have steadily escalated between IRAN and the U.S. with a 2015 Nuclear Deal standoff erupting into tit-for-tat military attacks with the killing of Senior General Qassem Soleimani and IRAN’s missile barrage on a base in IRAQ that housed American forces albeit the attack did not cause any U.S. casualties.
In regard to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 4,796,400 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 104,100 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak.  Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 104,100 people in Iran, with over 4,796,400 confirmed cases.
In regard to this week’s evidence that Iran has become a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, it is not surprising that authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Hence, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRANIAN government has been accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and not revealing the true extent of the crisis, as international officials fear the number of infections is much higher than the official count.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 1,787,000 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see that IRAN has now ordered the closure of nonessential businesses and banned travel between cities, albeit those measures came long after other countries in the region imposed more sweeping lockdowns. Thus, in my opinion, just over a week after saying that he expected the measures taken to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to be eased by early April, Hassan Rouhani now warned that the new way of life in IRAN was likely to be prolonged. Thus, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani hit the nail on the head that we must be prepared to live with this virus until a treatment or vaccine is discovered, which has not yet happened to date. Hence, the new way of life IRAN has adopted is to everyone’s benefit such that these changes will likely have to stay in place for some time. Therefore, the reopening of schools following IRAN’s Persian New Year holidays from March 19 to April 3 did not transpire as planned. However, Hassan Rouhani stated that on a positive note, top health experts and doctors advised him that in some provinces, IRAN has passed the peak of the epidemic and IRAN is now on a downward trajectory. Hence, in my opinion, IRAN continues to confront the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid a battle between Science and Conspiracy Theories. Thus, in my opinion, this touchiness appears to be hindering efforts to gather information about the COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not yet know the differences between IRAN isolates and others from MIDDLE EAST and ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Furthermore, this week, in my opinion, with ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN locked in a fresh conflict over the contested region of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, neighbouring IRAN finds itself in a delicate balancing act, with political, historical and ethnic considerations. Iran’s official stance, after having tried to resolve the long-running conflict in previous decades through diplomatic means, remains one of mediation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. In my opinion, IRAN also recognises several United Nations resolutions that stipulate NAGORNO-KARABAKH, which is controlled by ethnic ARMENIANS backed by ARMENIA, is part of AZERBAIJAN and that occupied AZERI lands must be returned. In my opinion, the region broke away from AZERBAIJAN in a war during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s but is not recognised by any country as an independent country, including ARMENIA. IRAN, which shares borders with both ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN, last week reassured AZERBAIJAN that it recognises its territorial integrity and that it holds an important place in IRANIAN foreign policy. In my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani also had a phone call with ARMENIAN Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian to call for conflict resolution through political discourse and international laws. However, there have been allegations that IRAN supports ARMENIA, which in turn is supported by RUSSIA. Recently, in my opinion, videos circulating on social media purportedly showed military equipment being transferred to ARMENIA via trucks passing through an IRANIAN border pass. However, IRAN quickly denied the allegations, saying they were baseless rumours aimed at smearing relations with AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, IRANIAN state television broadcast footage from the NORDOOZ border terminal where the vehicles in question were. They were shown to be Russian Kamaz trucks, which a local official said had been purchased by ARMENIA before the conflict and were being transported through IRAN. The trucks were shown to be carrying vehicle parts. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several rockets and shelling from the NAGORNO-KARABAKH fighting have landed on IRANIAN soil, with several shells hitting a residential area close to the border for the first time, injuring a six-year-old. In my opinion, IRANIAN foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reacted to the incident, saying the country will not tolerate the conflict spilling into its borders. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a current member of the parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, also believes the conflict cannot be resolved through anything but negotiations. According to Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, the two countries must put an end to fighting through peaceful means and negotiations that do not include other countries, like the U.S. and Israel, that don’t want the region to be peaceful. Fighting in the region will certainly be to the detriment of IRAN as well, such that IRAN must work toward ending the conflict.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, IRAN restarted fuel exports to AFGHANISTAN that had been disrupted by fighting between the TALIBAN and forces under the now deposed AFGHAN government, traders in IRAN and former U.S. officials say, with the TALIBAN now providing critical dollars to the sanctions-crushed IRANIAN economy from its lucrative narcotics operations. In my opinion, the burgeoning trade relationship between IRAN and the TALIBAN threatens to undermine key U.S. pressure campaigns against both. In my opinion, IRAN has been cut off from the global market for the U.S. dollar by U.S. sanctions, and the TALIBAN’s willingness to trade with their neighbor gives IRAN rare access to U.S. dollars it needs to import essential goods and bolster its depreciated currency. Meanwhile, in my opinion, the arrangement enables the TALIBAN, who are also cut off from trade and finance by international sanctions, to purchase basic commodities vital to keeping the ailing AFGHAN economy running. The TALIBAN is not the North Vietnamese army, declared U.S. President Joe Biden, days after the U.S. abandoned BAGRAM air base, the hub of its war in Afghanistan for 20 years, without telling its AFGHAN commander. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of the embassy of the United States from Afghanistan. In my opinion, by August 15’th Chinooks were rattling windows in KABUL, shuttling American diplomats from their hulking embassy. At the city’s airport, desperate AFGHANS swarmed the runway; some clung to the undercarriage of a C-17 transporter, falling to their deaths. In my opinion, the U.S. military will continue evacuating people from KABUL airport until an Aug. 31 deadline if needed, but will prioritize the removal of U.S. troops and military equipment during the last couple of days. IN my opinion, there are about 5,400 troops at the airport, a number that U.S. President Joe Biden says is set to go down to zero by the end of the month, depending on co-operation from the TALIBAN. Army Major General William Taylor, with the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a news briefing more than 10,000 people were at KABUL airport waiting to be evacuated from AFGHANISTAN. He said that in the previous 24 hours, 90 U.S. military and other international flights had evacuated 19,000 more people, bringing the total evacuation number so far to about 88,000. He said one plane had departed every 39 minutes.
However, in my opinion, it is impossible to claim that the IRANIAN government is solely responsible for the devastation COVID-19 has caused in IRAN. That is, in my opinion, the U.S. maximum pressure strategy against IRAN that commenced two years ago has placed IRAN under strict economic sanctions that limit its ability to trade with other nations. Furthermore, in my opinion, these sanctions, which choked off IRAN’s oil exports, crippled its economy and practically pushed it out of the international banking system, made it impossible for IRAN to swiftly take the necessary medical, economic and social measures to protect its citizens from COVID-19. In my opinion, the role U.S. sanctions have played, and continue to play, in the devastation caused by COVID-19 in Iran led to renewed discussions on the effectiveness, legality and legitimacy of sanctions not only in IRAN and the U.S., but also across the world. Thus, in my opinion, in IRAN, the IRANIAN government admitted that the sanctions make it difficult to obtain vital medical supplies and equipment to treat COVID-19 patients and called for their immediate lifting. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN frustrations were evident as IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the U.S. has moved from economic terrorism to medical terror by declining to lift the sanctions after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN and thus urging the international community to stop aiding war crimes by obeying illegal and immoral sanctions.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the OBAMA-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the 2015 Nuclear Accord. In my opinion, the U.S. remaining a participant in the IRAN nuclear accord that U.S. President Donald Trump renounced is part of a complex strategy to pressure the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council to extend an arms embargo on IRAN or see far more stringent sanctions re-imposed on IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, the strategy has begun to circulate in a new resolution in the U.N. Security Council that would bar countries from exporting conventional arms to IRAN after the current ban expires in October of 2020. However, in my opinion, any effort to renew the arms embargo is almost certain to be openly opposed by RUSSIA and privately by China, as the RUSSIANS have already told American and European officials, they are eager to resume conventional arms sales to IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, Mike Pompeo has approved a plan, under which the U.S. would, in essence, claim it legally remains a participant state in the 2015 Nuclear Deal that U.S. President Donald Trump denounced but only for the purposes of invoking a snapback that would restore the U.N. sanctions on IRAN that were in place before the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Obviously, in my opinion, EUROPEAN diplomats who have learned of the effort maintain that U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, are selectively choosing whether they are still in the agreement to fit their agenda.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 435” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 55,000, with total over 6,253,800 cases, as over 214.3 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 4,469,800 people dead, while TALIBAN have asked all countries, primarily TURKEY, to help AFGHAN people & AFGHANISTAN, as AFGHAN people have been at war for 40 years & thus need help, while U.S. led NATO troops ready to completely withdraw from war-torn country, whereas over 34.46 million doses of coronavirus vaccine administered in SAUDI ARABIA to date, albeit call on public to register to receive vaccine, & adhere to measures & abide by instructions, albeit some 40 people arrested for violating preventive measures that stipulate no more than 20 people can gather at one point, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 104,100 people in IRAN, with over 4,796,400 confirmed cases, as IRAN restarted fuel exports to AFGHANISTAN that had been disrupted by fighting between TALIBAN & forces under now deposed AFGHAN government, with TALIBAN now providing critical dollars to sanctions-crushed IRANIAN economy from its lucrative narcotics operations.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
August 29, 2021
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Sretan Uskrs - Gospodin Slavno Uskrsnu! / Happy Easter – Gentleman Famously Risen! / Joyeuses Pâques – Gentilhomme Fameusement Ressuscité! / Feliz Pascua – Gentilhombre Famosamente Resucitado!

 

Sretan i blagoslovljen Uskrs Vama i Vašim obiteljima i neka nam se novi dan i novi san na Uskrs ponovno rodi.

 

Happy and Blessed Easter to you and your families and let us have a new day and a new dream reborn on Easter.

 

Joyeuses Pâques à vous et vos familles et permettons un nouveau jour et un nouveau rêve d'être renaît avec Pâques.

 

Feliz y bendecida Pascua a ustedes y a sus familias, y vamos a tener un nuevo día y un nuevo sueño renacer en Pascua.
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22 mars 2021 1 22 /03 /mars /2021 17:42
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 434

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 434” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 29,800, with total over 2,950,700 cases, as over 122.4 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 2,701,400 people dead, while in LIBYA’s new interim government, General Khalifa Haftar & Muslim Brotherhood poorly represented, while prime minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba managed to strengthen his position, as LIBYA is finally regaining an appearance of unity in composition of its new government, while SAUDI ARABIA said drones struck an oil facility in capital of RIYADH, igniting a fire at installation, while HOUTHIS stated that carried out an operation with six drones which targeted SAUDI ARAMCO in capital of SAUDI ARABIA enemy, RIYADH, without describing targets, but stating that operations will continue & escalate as long as SAUDI ARABIA aggression against YEMEN continues, warning foreign companies & citizens to avoid military sites & key infrastructure, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 62,000 people in IRAN, with over 1,787,000 confirmed cases, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says CANADA will continue to hold IRAN to account after its military shot down a passenger jet in January 2020.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to TURKEY making it clear that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 29,800 with a total of over 2,950,700 cases.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKISH authorities have imposed new measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In my opinion, TURKEY took necessary measures with mandatory facemasks on public transport, in markets and other communal spaces, along with 31 cities now being closed to all but essential traffic. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY needs to remain vigilant as TURKEY has now become the ninth highest number of cases worldwide as over 122.4 million people have fallen ill globally, and more than 2,701,400 people have died.
In my opinion, it was not surprising that this week FRANCE’s growing disagreement with TURKEY over the LIBYAN civil war has exposed cracks in the NATO military alliance and raised questions over what FRANCE is seeking to achieve in the region. That is, in my opinion, FRANCE was the only European country considered to be a supporter of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who launched a more than yearlong offensive on TRIPOLI to replace the UN-backed government. Thus, in my opinion, the dispute with TURKEY has escalated as TURKEY’s military intervention backing LIBYA’s Government of National Accord (GNA) shifted the dynamics of the LIBYAN conflict, with General Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffering a string of defeats in recent weeks. However, in my opinion, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron insists FRANCE has now adopted a neutral stance and that it fully supports the U.N. supported peace process in LIBYA agreed by international powers in January. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced EGYPT and UAE for supporting forces based in eastern LIBYA, after EGYPT’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met LIBYAN tribesmen who urged EGYPT to intervene in the war. In my opinion, TURKEY has been providing military aid to the U.N. recognised government in the LIBYA conflict, while EGYPT, UAE and RUSSIA have backed its rivals based in the east.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week in LIBYA’s new interim government, General Khalifa Haftar and the Muslim Brotherhood are poorly represented, while prime minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba has managed to strengthen his position. This marks a turning point in the LIBYAN political landscape. In my opinion, torn apart since 2015 between the western camp, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the eastern camp, under General Khalifa Haftar’s control, LIBYA is finally regaining an appearance of unity in the composition of its new government. Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba managed to win the vote of confidence held in the House of Representatives successfully before the 19 March deadline, of which only two government ministers voted against and 36 were absent. In my opinion, obtaining the approval of the elected representatives from the east was not easy, but the Prime Minister’s plan worked. The composition of the government illustrates that it is the product of a broad coalition of interests. In this sense it very much represents a power sharing formula. In my opinion, it also directly advocates a form of what is known as quotas, whereby Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba’s government has sought to distribute positions among interest groups and locales. In my opinion, composed of two deputy prime ministers, 35 ministers and six ministers of state, this new government offers a balanced representation of the three Libyan regions: Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica in the east and Fezzan in the south. In my opinion, this is one of the keys to Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba’s success in convincing government ministers to validate his list. However, it also seems clear that Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba has managed to rally support from key players, including Aguila Saleh and General Khalifa Haftar. In my opinion, even though pro-General Khalifa Haftar deputies approved the government list, General Khalifa Haftar has nonetheless lost big time. The strong man of the east did not succeed in placing his men in strategic government positions. In my opinion, he fought hard behind the scenes to obtain the role of minister of defence, but this job remained, in the end, in Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba’s hands. This decision allows the prime minister to avoid alienating one of the Libyan camps, as this position was also requested by the various Islamist factions. In my opinion, the absence of a Minister of Defence will allow General Khalifa Haftar to maintain his military supremacy in the East, even if it is increasingly challenged by internal actors in Cyrenaica. In my opinion, General Khalifa Haftar suffered another setback. His candidate for deputy prime minister, Saqr Bujwari, the mayor of Benghazi, lost at the last minute. Initially included in the government list drawn up by Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba, Bujwari was dropped in favour of Hussein Al Qatrani, who is close to Aguila Saleh. Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba granted this favour to the speaker of the House of Representatives in order to facilitate the validation of his government by Parliament.

 

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and downright psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
In regard to SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MAKKAH and MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all-time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. In regard to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak disrupting the world economy, with fewer planes flying, ships sailing and factories producing, it is not surprising to see recent declines in oil prices. However, in my opinion, when oil prices commence plummeting, they tend to bring world stock prices down with them. In my opinion, the main reason why coronavirus (COVID-19) is a threat to oil prices is that CHINA is the main new consumer of oil in the world, as CHINA alone contributes about 33% of new consumption of oil each year, and ASIA more broadly about 50% of new consumption. Therefore, in my opinion, if the demand for oil slows down in the region because people are not travelling or factories are not producing as a result of coronavirus (COVID-19), oil prices will inevitably sink.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be coping with rising number of cases as well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting over 6,600 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 383,900. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Hence, this week, after a SAUDI ARABIAN and RUSSIAN truce to stabilise oil markets with a record output cut, it was not surprising to see the two production heavyweights still trading blows in the physical market. That is, in my opinion, as demand is falling, and the competition is getting even tougher, SAUDI ARABIA does not seem to mind enticing buyers with special offers. That is, it was not surprising to see SAUDI ARABIAN Aramco offer refiners in ASIA and EUROPE the option to defer payments for crude cargo deliveries by up to 90 days. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s main advantage in the physical market fight with SAUDI ARABIA is its extensive pipeline network, helping RUSSIA to place oil at cheaper rates compared to its rival SAUDI ARABIA that has to find tankers and pay for transportation.
Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN oil fields are connected to refineries in EUROPE and ASIA such that oil companies have long-term contracts with RUSSIA. Meanwhile, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is subject to freight rates and vessel availability for transportation of its oil. Therefore, in my opinion, although the rivals stated that they were ready to take measures to balance the market by cutting combined output with other OPEC members from May to reduce global supply by 10%, the battle for clients is still going on the ground. Thus, it is not surprising to see the battle raging on the day-to-day current market, rather than in the world of futures prices, as a long-standing battle for market share carries on, particularly in ASIA.
Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA was forced to impose 24-hour curfews over some SAUDI ARABIAN cities including the capital of RIYADH. In my opinion, it is shocking to see the biggest economy in the MIDDLE EAST also close down cinemas, malls and restaurants and halt flights as it steps up efforts to contain COVID-19. Hence, in my opinion, King Salman hit the nail on the head by warning of a more difficult fight ahead against COVID-19, as SAUDI ARABIA faces the double blow of an economic standstill and crashing oil prices. That is, oil prices have plummeted because of the global economic shutdown, while SAUDI ARABIA and RUSSIA have pumped oil relentlessly in a war for market share.
Furthermore, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA said drones struck an oil facility in the capital of RIYADH, igniting a fire at the installation. The official Saudi Press Agency quoted an official in the energy ministry as saying the dawn attack caused no injuries or damage and did not affect oil supplies. In my opinion, the RIYADH oil refinery was attacked by drones, resulting in a fire that has been brought under control according to the energy ministry. It called on the world to stand against what the ministry described as these terrorist and subversive aggressions and those carrying them out or supporting them. In my opinion, YEMEN’s IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels reported they launched six drones at a facility belonging to SAUDI ARAMCO, the kingdom’s oil giant that now has a small percentage of its worth traded publicly on the stock market, in RIYADH. SAUDI ARABIA condemned the attack saying the assault targeted the security and stability of the world’s energy supplies. Authorities did not name the impacted facility. In my opinion, SAUDI ARAMCO, SAUDI ARABIA’s oil giant, does have a refinery just southeast of RIYADH. That refinery produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products for consumption around SAUDI ARABIA’s capital. In my opinion, the HOUTHIS have stepped up attacks into SAUDI ARABIA, the world’s top oil exporter, in recent weeks. Yahya Sarea, a Houthi military spokesman, stated that HOUTHI armed forces carried out an operation with six drones which targeted the SAUDI ARAMCO company in the capital of the SAUDI ARABIA enemy, RIYADH, without describing the targets he said were hit. In my opinion, Yahya Sarea also stated that operations against SAUDI ARABIA will continue and escalate as long as SAUDI ARABIA aggression against YEMEN continues. Yahya Sarea also warned foreign companies and citizens to avoid military sites and key infrastructure.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
Thus, in my opinion, advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Furthermore, in my opinion, MIDDLE EAST is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and threat of war between U.S. & IRAN, while certain that IRAQ would be caught in middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in background, as he has stated that one reason, he wants to keep a base in IRAQ is to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN. That is, U.S. sees IRAN as real problem, although when U.S. President Donald Trump asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, he clearly stated no, as all he wants to do in IRAQ is monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wants to make sure that there are no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, IRAQ has only logged a total of over 785,000 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and recorded over 14,000 deaths, as there remain valid concerns that many more are going undetected, as only small portion of IRAQ’s 40 million plus population have been tested thus far. Therefore, in my opinion, although most of IRAQ’s 18 provinces have already imposed their own local curfews, new measures will include the whole of IRAQ, according to a decision by IRAQ’s crisis management team were necessary. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has been forced to close schools, universities and other gathering places, including IRAQ’s multiple international airports. However, in my opinion, IRAQI authorities have been struggling to enforce previous curfews, as many thousands of SHIA pilgrims turned out in the capital of BAGHDAD and other cities in the south of IRAQ to commemorate the death of a revered Muslim imam, Musa al-Kadhim, with reports saying up to 400,000 people trying to attend his shrine north of BAGHDAD, as al-Kadhim was the seventh of 12 imams considered the spiritual and political successors to the Prophet Muhammad.
However, in my opinion, in the backdrop does linger the possibility of the relationship between IRAQ and the U.S. being on the brink of collapse, as IRAQ seeks to form a new government, with its parliament on record as recommending that U.S. forces be expelled from IRAQ due to the January’ 2020 killing of IRANIAN terror mastermind Qassam Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, tensions were once again inflamed by the U.S. retaliation, on March 13, 2020, for recent rocket barrages against U.S. and allied forces in IRAQ by IRANIAN-backed militias that killed two U.S. soldiers and one British soldier. Subsequently, in my opinion, another round of barrages occurred by IRANIAN-backed militias, with the potential for yet more U.S. retaliations. Therefore, in my opinion, the U.S. and IRAQI partnership appears to be in danger namely due to IRAN’s solid presence in IRAQ which would be a tragic shame if it ended as for Iraq, U.S. presence is great counterweight to IRAN and ISIS, while U.S. also helpful with IRAQI internal politics, especially in regard to sectarian divisions in IRAQI security forces. In my opinion, KURDISH, SHIA and SUNNI IRAQIS may all have their issues with the U.S., but little view the U.S. as inherently biased against them such that the U.S. serves its purpose well as a balancing force in IRAQ amongst competing interests.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
However, this week, in my opinion, SYRIANS in IDLIB rightfully feared a nearing end as the city of IDLIB is the last urban area still under opposition control in SYRIA, located in a shrinking rebel enclave, while representing the last rebel held enclave in SYRIA’s civil war, which entered its 10’th year this week. Therefore, in my opinion, the misery wreaked by the civil war has not diminished as a bloodier and possibly more disastrous phase is on the horizon, if government forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, go ahead with threats to recapture IDLIB city and the remaining rebel-held north, crammed with over 3 million people. In my opinion, over the last three months, SAA forces recaptured nearly half of IDLIB province and surrounding areas, forcing nearly 1 million to flee their homes, around half of them into other parts of the province, including IDLIB city. Furthermore, during the advances, SAA forces neared IDLIB city outskirts while bombing parts and sending thousands of citizens fleeing north. In my opinion, IDLIB residents now struggle with daily life as more than half a million children have been displaced by latest fighting and are living in desperate conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, although the government offensive may have been paused by a RUSSIAN and TURKISH cease-fire deal, residents of IDLIB are now living in a state of terrifying limbo, as they are sceptical whether the cease-fire will last, while being well aware that they are likely the next target of the last SAA assault.
However, in my opinion, the rebels still refuse to cede defeat as RUSSIAN Foreign Ministry stated that militant groups in the de-escalation zone in IDLIB have rearmed and are preparing to launch counterattacks against the SAA, while stressing the need to eliminate and hold them accountable for their actions. However, in my opinion, the militant groups have refrained from launching any major attacks as of yet as they know full well that the SAA and RUSSIAN militaries are ready, willing and able to launch a final assault on IDLIB.
Furthermore, in my opinion, SYRIAN and TURKISH armed forces sending reinforcements to the IDLIB on a daily basis, despite an ongoing ceasefire among all warring parties in the region, indicates that the SAA may be launching an offensive soon. Meanwhile, in my opinion, as men wage bloody battle for IDLIB, women sew facemasks to fight the next threat consisting of COVID-19 in sprawling refugee camps, as the official SYRIAN total of 1,130 deaths and 17,000 cases, does not seem to reflect potential risk of over 100,000 deaths if COVID-19 is allowed to spread without any mitigation. Nonetheless, it is not surprising that the SAA launched a new attack on the jihadist defenses along the southern IDLIB front lines where they saw an opening, as the SAA once again struck the defenses of the jihadist rebels after they moved more forces to the front lines near the town of AL-BARA. However, in my opinion, this week, it was not surprising to see the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) stating that it expects that RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN will reach a consensus to remove the head of the SYRIAN regime, Bashar Al-Assad, and establish a ceasefire in exchange for forming a transitional government that includes the opposition, members of the regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Thus, in my opinion, this decision would send a very clear political message, that the SYRIAN people do not want Bashar Al-Assad to remain President.

 

IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 1,787,000 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 62,000 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak.  Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 62,000 people in Iran, with over 1,787,000 confirmed cases.
In regard to this week’s evidence that Iran has become a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, it is not surprising that authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Hence, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRANIAN government has been accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and not revealing the true extent of the crisis, as international officials fear the number of infections is much higher than the official count.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 1,787,000 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see that IRAN has now ordered the closure of nonessential businesses and banned travel between cities, albeit those measures came long after other countries in the region imposed more sweeping lockdowns. Thus, in my opinion, just over a week after saying that he expected the measures taken to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to be eased by early April, Hassan Rouhani now warned that the new way of life in IRAN was likely to be prolonged. Thus, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani hit the nail on the head that we must be prepared to live with this virus until a treatment or vaccine is discovered, which has not yet happened to date. Hence, the new way of life IRAN has adopted is to everyone’s benefit such that these changes will likely have to stay in place for some time. Therefore, the reopening of schools following IRAN’s Persian New Year holidays from March 19 to April 3 did not transpire as planned. However, Hassan Rouhani stated that on a positive note, top health experts and doctors advised him that in some provinces, IRAN has passed the peak of the epidemic and IRAN is now on a downward trajectory. Hence, in my opinion, IRAN continues to confront the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid a battle between Science and Conspiracy Theories. Thus, in my opinion, this touchiness appears to be hindering efforts to gather information about the COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not yet know the differences between IRAN isolates and others from MIDDLE EAST and ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Furthermore, this week, in my opinion, with ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN locked in a fresh conflict over the contested region of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, neighbouring IRAN finds itself in a delicate balancing act, with political, historical and ethnic considerations. Iran’s official stance, after having tried to resolve the long-running conflict in previous decades through diplomatic means, remains one of mediation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. In my opinion, IRAN also recognises several United Nations resolutions that stipulate NAGORNO-KARABAKH, which is controlled by ethnic ARMENIANS backed by ARMENIA, is part of AZERBAIJAN and that occupied AZERI lands must be returned. In my opinion, the region broke away from AZERBAIJAN in a war during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s but is not recognised by any country as an independent country, including ARMENIA. IRAN, which shares borders with both ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN, last week reassured AZERBAIJAN that it recognises its territorial integrity and that it holds an important place in IRANIAN foreign policy. In my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani also had a phone call with ARMENIAN Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian to call for conflict resolution through political discourse and international laws. However, there have been allegations that IRAN supports ARMENIA, which in turn is supported by RUSSIA. Recently, in my opinion, videos circulating on social media purportedly showed military equipment being transferred to ARMENIA via trucks passing through an IRANIAN border pass. However, IRAN quickly denied the allegations, saying they were baseless rumours aimed at smearing relations with AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, IRANIAN state television broadcast footage from the NORDOOZ border terminal where the vehicles in question were. They were shown to be Russian Kamaz trucks, which a local official said had been purchased by ARMENIA before the conflict and were being transported through IRAN. The trucks were shown to be carrying vehicle parts. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several rockets and shelling from the NAGORNO-KARABAKH fighting have landed on IRANIAN soil, with several shells hitting a residential area close to the border for the first time, injuring a six-year-old. In my opinion, IRANIAN foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reacted to the incident, saying the country will not tolerate the conflict spilling into its borders. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a current member of the parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, also believes the conflict cannot be resolved through anything but negotiations. According to Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, the two countries must put an end to fighting through peaceful means and negotiations that do not include other countries, like the U.S. and Israel, that don’t want the region to be peaceful. Fighting in the region will certainly be to the detriment of IRAN as well, such that IRAN must work toward ending the conflict.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says CANADA will continue to hold IRAN to account after its military shot down a passenger jet in January 2020. First and foremost, CANADA will continue to be there to support the families and fulfil its promise to find out exactly what went wrong, how this terrible tragedy could happen and ensure that IRAN wields full responsibility for its role in the loss of so many lives. In my opinion, CANADA’s air-safety investigator said Iranian officials failed to provide evidence that UKRAINE International Airlines Flight 752 was shot down by mistake, leaving key questions unanswered as IRAN’s military effectively investigated itself. In my opinion, the regime’s civil aviation body released a final report this week that blamed human error for two surface-to-air missiles fired at the jetliner minutes after takeoff from TEHRAN, IRAN on January 8 of last year. In my opinion, the CANADIAN government has rejected the report outright, describing it as incomplete and devoid of hard facts or evidence on the factors that led to the death of 176 people on board, including 55 CANADIAN citizens, 30 permanent residents and dozens of others with ties to CANADA. The disaster unfolded hours after IRAN launched missiles into IRAQ at two AMERICAN military bases in retaliation for the U.S. having killed top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani near the BAGHDAD airport by order of then U.S. president Donald Trump. In my opinion, a group representing the families is demanding CANADA impose sanctions against IRAN’s Revolutionary Guard to pry out more information on the shootdown. They also want CANADA to take the IRANIAN regime to the International Court of Justice if talks stretch beyond three months. In my opinion, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he will work with international partners to demand justice and transparency on behalf of CANADIAN families. BRITAIN, UKRAINE, AFGHANISTAN and SWEDEN also lost citizens when the plane was destroyed, and the countries formed a coalition with CANADA to deal with IRAN, demanding reparations and a more transparent report.
However, in my opinion, it is impossible to claim that the IRANIAN government is solely responsible for the devastation COVID-19 has caused in IRAN. That is, in my opinion, the U.S. maximum pressure strategy against IRAN that commenced two years ago has placed IRAN under strict economic sanctions that limit its ability to trade with other nations. Furthermore, in my opinion, these sanctions, which choked off IRAN’s oil exports, crippled its economy and practically pushed it out of the international banking system, made it impossible for IRAN to swiftly take the necessary medical, economic and social measures to protect its citizens from COVID-19. In my opinion, the role U.S. sanctions have played, and continue to play, in the devastation caused by COVID-19 in Iran led to renewed discussions on the effectiveness, legality and legitimacy of sanctions not only in IRAN and the U.S., but also across the world. Thus, in my opinion, in IRAN, the IRANIAN government admitted that the sanctions make it difficult to obtain vital medical supplies and equipment to treat COVID-19 patients and called for their immediate lifting. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN frustrations were evident as IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the U.S. has moved from economic terrorism to medical terror by declining to lift the sanctions after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN and thus urging the international community to stop aiding war crimes by obeying illegal and immoral sanctions.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the OBAMA-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the 2015 Nuclear Accord. In my opinion, the U.S. remaining a participant in the IRAN nuclear accord that U.S. President Donald Trump renounced is part of a complex strategy to pressure the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council to extend an arms embargo on IRAN or see far more stringent sanctions re-imposed on IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, the strategy has begun to circulate in a new resolution in the U.N. Security Council that would bar countries from exporting conventional arms to IRAN after the current ban expires in October of 2020. However, in my opinion, any effort to renew the arms embargo is almost certain to be openly opposed by RUSSIA and privately by China, as the RUSSIANS have already told American and European officials, they are eager to resume conventional arms sales to IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, Mike Pompeo has approved a plan, under which the U.S. would, in essence, claim it legally remains a participant state in the 2015 Nuclear Deal that U.S. President Donald Trump denounced but only for the purposes of invoking a snapback that would restore the U.N. sanctions on IRAN that were in place before the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Obviously, in my opinion, EUROPEAN diplomats who have learned of the effort maintain that U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, are selectively choosing whether they are still in the agreement to fit their agenda.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 434” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 29,800, with total over 2,950,700 cases, as over 122.4 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 2,701,400 people dead, while in LIBYA’s new interim government, General Khalifa Haftar & Muslim Brotherhood poorly represented, while prime minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba managed to strengthen his position, as LIBYA is finally regaining an appearance of unity in composition of its new government, while SAUDI ARABIA said drones struck an oil facility in capital of RIYADH, igniting a fire at installation, while HOUTHIS stated that carried out an operation with six drones which targeted SAUDI ARAMCO in capital of SAUDI ARABIA enemy, RIYADH, without describing targets, but stating that operations will continue & escalate as long as SAUDI ARABIA aggression against YEMEN continues, warning foreign companies & citizens to avoid military sites & key infrastructure, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 62,000 people in IRAN, with over 1,787,000 confirmed cases, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says CANADA will continue to hold IRAN to account after its military shot down a passenger jet in January 2020.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
March 28, 2021
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