World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 428
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 428” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 10,900, with total over 394,500 cases, as over 50.7 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 1,261,750 people dead, while LIBYAN ceasefire agreement faces hurdles, due to foreign intervention, as signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement, between LIBYA’s warring factions, was widely marketed as a key moment, that would redress LIBYA’s spiralling trajectory, while international exhilaration, that accompanied launch of these talks, renders obscure very real possibility, of a relapse into violent conflict, while what LIBYA’s people deserve is not misplaced optimism, but a genuine commitment to crafting a path towards accountability, reconciliation, & peace, while SAUDI ARABIA’s King Salman & Crown Prince MBS congratulated U.S. president elect Joe Biden, on winning the U.S. presidential election, wishing him success & further progress & prosperity for the American people, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 38,800 people in IRAN, with over 692,950 confirmed cases, while AZERBAIJAN’s forces have captured a strategically important city in the war for control of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, in a major breakthrough that effectively severs disputed territory’s lifeline from ARMENIA, while RUSSIA continues to make every effort to resolve NAGORNO-KARABAKH conflict by political and diplomatic means.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to TURKEY making it clear that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 10,900 with a total of over 394,500 cases.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKISH authorities have imposed new measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In my opinion, TURKEY took necessary measures with mandatory facemasks on public transport, in markets and other communal spaces, along with 31 cities now being closed to all but essential traffic. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY needs to remain vigilant as TURKEY has now become the twenty sixth highest number of cases worldwide as over 50.7 million people have fallen ill globally and more than 1,261,750 people have died.
In my opinion, it was not surprising that this week FRANCE’s growing disagreement with TURKEY over the LIBYAN civil war has exposed cracks in the NATO military alliance and raised questions over what FRANCE is seeking to achieve in the region. That is, in my opinion, FRANCE was the only European country considered to be a supporter of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who launched a more than yearlong offensive on TRIPOLI to replace the UN-backed government. Thus, in my opinion, the dispute with TURKEY has escalated as TURKEY’s military intervention backing LIBYA’s Government of National Accord (GNA) shifted the dynamics of the LIBYAN conflict, with General Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffering a string of defeats in recent weeks. However, in my opinion, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron insists FRANCE has now adopted a neutral stance and that it fully supports the U.N. supported peace process in LIBYA agreed by international powers in January. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced EGYPT and UAE for supporting forces based in eastern LIBYA, after EGYPT’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met LIBYAN tribesmen who urged EGYPT to intervene in the war. In my opinion, TURKEY has been providing military aid to the U.N. recognised government in the LIBYA conflict, while EGYPT, UAE and RUSSIA have backed its rivals based in the east.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week the LIBYAN ceasefire agreement faces hurdles due to foreign intervention. That is, the signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement between LIBYA’s warring factions on October 23 was widely marketed as a key moment that would redress LIBYA’s spiralling trajectory. In my opinion, the agreement was also the building block for the first United Nations mediated meeting inside LIBYA in years. On November 1, the Joint Military Commission, military representatives of the Eastern-based Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) and the Government of National Accord, who are aligned with General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), met in the border town of GHADAMES to discuss ways to solidify their bare-boned ceasefire agreement. Yet, in my opinion, the international exhilaration that accompanied the launch of these talks renders obscure the very real possibility of a relapse into violent conflict. In my opinion, there are legitimate doubts over the loyalty of local and international stakeholders such as RUSSIA, TURKEY and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the security track’s basic conditions. In my opinion, there is also the overhanging question as to whether the political and economic tracks complementing this very agreement are setting it up for failure by design. In my opinion, the first hurdle appears to be that there are virtually no coercion or accountability mechanisms that international stakeholders are committed to leveraging against domestic parties that are working to undermine the agreement with the support of foreign actors. Indeed, in my opinion, many have a vested interest and a track record of sabotaging political, economic, or security tracks. The symbolism of the Joint Military Commission meeting in GHADAMES, the former host city of the long-awaited April 2019 National Conference, was not lost on LIBYANS. In my opinion, it may well be that, once again the potential success of another GHADAMES hosted event is sacrificed on the alluring but ultimately self-defeating altar to accommodate General Khalifa Haftar in a new power-sharing arrangement. In my opinion, more broadly, the fact that General Khalifa Haftar’s 2019 Western LIBYA offensive, and the sixteen month-long deadly war that ensued, has virtually been swept under the accountability rug sends its own message to him and other self-serving parties. The Wagner Group’s autonomy is hardly an issue LIBYANS can tackle at the negotiating table. Therefore, in my opinion, not only is the ceasefire vulnerable to LIBYAN spoilers, but it is also at the mercy of RUSSIA’s strategic whims. In my opinion, the new Russian build-up in Central Libya, bemoaned by United States Africa Command, shows that President Vladimir Putin intends to take advantage of this time window to outflank both the United States and the European Union. In my opinion, while a lengthy election process and the potential of a difficult political transition impede the U.S., increasing tensions with the expansionist policies of TURKEY’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan compounds the EU’s incoherence on LIBYA. Therefore, in my opinion, what LIBYA’s people deserve is not misplaced optimism, but a genuine commitment to crafting a path towards accountability, reconciliation, and peace.
SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and downright psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
In regard to SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MAKKAH and MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all-time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. In regard to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak disrupting the world economy, with fewer planes flying, ships sailing and factories producing, it is not surprising to see recent declines in oil prices. However, in my opinion, when oil prices commence plummeting, they tend to bring world stock prices down with them. In my opinion, the main reason why coronavirus (COVID-19) is a threat to oil prices is that CHINA is the main new consumer of oil in the world, as CHINA alone contributes about 33% of new consumption of oil each year, and ASIA more broadly about 50% of new consumption. Therefore, in my opinion, if the demand for oil slows down in the region because people are not travelling or factories are not producing as a result of coronavirus (COVID-19), oil prices will inevitably sink.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be coping with rising number of cases as well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting over 5,550 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 350,600. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Hence, this week, after a SAUDI ARABIAN and RUSSIAN truce to stabilise oil markets with a record output cut, it was not surprising to see the two production heavyweights still trading blows in the physical market. That is, in my opinion, as demand is falling, and the competition is getting even tougher, SAUDI ARABIA does not seem to mind enticing buyers with special offers. That is, it was not surprising to see SAUDI ARABIAN Aramco offer refiners in ASIA and EUROPE the option to defer payments for crude cargo deliveries by up to 90 days. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s main advantage in the physical market fight with SAUDI ARABIA is its extensive pipeline network, helping RUSSIA to place oil at cheaper rates compared to its rival SAUDI ARABIA that has to find tankers and pay for transportation.
Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN oil fields are connected to refineries in EUROPE and ASIA such that oil companies have long-term contracts with RUSSIA. Meanwhile, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is subject to freight rates and vessel availability for transportation of its oil. Therefore, in my opinion, although the rivals stated that they were ready to take measures to balance the market by cutting combined output with other OPEC members from May to reduce global supply by 10%, the battle for clients is still going on the ground. Thus, it is not surprising to see the battle raging on the day-to-day current market, rather than in the world of futures prices, as a long-standing battle for market share carries on, particularly in ASIA.
Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA was forced to impose 24-hour curfews over some SAUDI ARABIAN cities including the capital of RIYADH. In my opinion, it is shocking to see the biggest economy in the MIDDLE EAST also close down cinemas, malls and restaurants and halt flights as it steps up efforts to contain COVID-19. Hence, in my opinion, King Salman hit the nail on the head by warning of a more difficult fight ahead against COVID-19, as SAUDI ARABIA faces the double blow of an economic standstill and crashing oil prices. That is, oil prices have plummeted because of the global economic shutdown, while SAUDI ARABIA and RUSSIA have pumped oil relentlessly in a war for market share.
Furthermore, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA’s King Salman and Crown Prince MBS congratulated U.S. president elect Joe Biden on winning the U.S. presidential election. They wished him success and further progress and prosperity for the American people. King Salman and Crown Prince MBS also congratulated Vice President elect Kamala Harris on her post. In my opinion, King Salman praised the distinct close historical relations existing between the two friendly countries, which both sides seek to strengthen and develop in all fields. In my opinion, Crown Prince MBS offered his sincere congratulations and best wishes for health and happiness to Joe Biden, and hoped for further progress and advancement for the American people. In my opinion, heads of state from the GCC countries and leaders from the Arab world and elsewhere also offered their congratulations. In my opinion, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said EGYPT looked forward to strengthening strategic bilateral ties between EGYPT and the U.S. in the interest of both countries and peoples. In my opinion, King Abdullah of Jordan stated that he looked forward to working with Joe Biden on further advancing the solid historic partnership between JORDAN and the U.S., in the interest of shared objectives of peace, stability and prosperity. In my opinion, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on Joe Biden to strengthen relations between the Palestinians and the U.S. Joe Biden, who turns 78 on Nov. 20, is the oldest person ever to be elected to the White House. Harris, the junior senator from California, is the first woman, first South Asian and African-American person to be elected vice president. In my opinion, in the U.S., Republican former President George W. Bush said he had spoken with Joe Biden and congratulated him on his victory. Former President George W. Bush also stated that although they have political differences, he knows Joe Biden to be a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify the country. The American people can have confidence that this election was fundamentally fair, its integrity will be upheld, and its outcome is clear.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
Thus, in my opinion, advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as prime focus of discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. Therefore, I was not surprised to see IRAQI President Barham Salih focus on U.S. & IRANIAN tensions by clearly stating that war is the last thing the MIDDLE EAST needs, as the last war on terror against ISIS has not yet been completed.
Furthermore, in my opinion, MIDDLE EAST is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and threat of war between U.S. & IRAN, while certain that IRAQ would be caught in middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in background, as he has stated that one reason, he wants to keep a base in IRAQ is to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN. That is, U.S. sees IRAN as real problem, although when U.S. President Donald Trump asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, he clearly stated no, as all he wants to do in IRAQ is monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wants to make sure that there are no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, IRAQ has only logged a total of over 501,800 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and recorded over 11,400 deaths, as there remain valid concerns that many more are going undetected, as only small portion of IRAQ’s 40 million plus population have been tested thus far. Therefore, in my opinion, although most of IRAQ’s 18 provinces have already imposed their own local curfews, new measures will include the whole of IRAQ, according to a decision by IRAQ’s crisis management team were necessary. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has been forced to close schools, universities and other gathering places, including IRAQ’s multiple international airports. However, in my opinion, IRAQI authorities have been struggling to enforce previous curfews, as many thousands of SHIA pilgrims turned out in the capital of BAGHDAD and other cities in the south of IRAQ to commemorate the death of a revered Muslim imam, Musa al-Kadhim, with reports saying up to 400,000 people trying to attend his shrine north of BAGHDAD, as al-Kadhim was the seventh of 12 imams considered the spiritual and political successors to the Prophet Muhammad.
However, in my opinion, in the backdrop does linger the possibility of the relationship between IRAQ and the U.S. being on the brink of collapse, as IRAQ seeks to form a new government, with its parliament on record as recommending that U.S. forces be expelled from IRAQ due to the January’ 2020 killing of IRANIAN terror mastermind Qassam Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, tensions were once again inflamed by the U.S. retaliation, on March 13, 2020, for recent rocket barrages against U.S. and allied forces in IRAQ by IRANIAN-backed militias that killed two U.S. soldiers and one British soldier. Subsequently, in my opinion, another round of barrages occurred by IRANIAN-backed militias, with the potential for yet more U.S. retaliations. Therefore, in my opinion, the U.S. and IRAQI partnership appears to be in danger namely due to IRAN’s solid presence in IRAQ which would be a tragic shame if it ended as for Iraq, U.S. presence is great counterweight to IRAN and ISIS, while U.S. also helpful with IRAQI internal politics, especially in regard to sectarian divisions in IRAQI security forces. In my opinion, KURDISH, SHIA and SUNNI IRAQIS may all have their issues with the U.S., but little view the U.S. as inherently biased against them such that the U.S. serves its purpose well as a balancing force in IRAQ amongst competing interests.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Hence, in my opinion, at this stage three scenario are still possible for IDLIB consisting of the FIRST and most favourable being for TURKEY & RUSSIA to agree to uphold the de-escalation zone agreement in IDLIB while ordering SAA forces to return to the positions they held before their latest offensive. Furthermore, this could be combined with a revival of the political process and resumption of meetings with the goal of drafting amendments to SYRIAN constitution agreed upon by current regime, opposition forces and international community. However, although TURKEY has tried to push for such a settlement by threatening military action if SAA forces did not pull back, the likelihood of this happening on the ground now seems unlikely, in light of recent SAA advances. The SECOND scenario would be TURKEY accepting new realities on ground and allowing SAA to control M4 & M5 highways but using force to limit any further SAA advances. Furthermore, TURKEY could seek to establish a safe zone in IDLIB by setting up re-enforced defence positions along frontline and supplying Syrian opposition with heavy weapons, especially anti-aircraft missiles. In my opinion, it appears that TURKEY Ankara has already adopted this policy on the ground given that two SAA helicopters were downed in IDLIB with anti-aircraft weapons. The THIRD scenario and the one that Turkey wants to avoid is an escalation with RUSSIA, as the presence of anti-aircraft weapons on ground raises risk of RUSSIAN aircraft being shot down. Furthermore, the TURKISH military is likely to take precautions to avoid such a dangerous development, but given massive deployments on the ground, TURKEY is the closest it has been since 2015 to a direct confrontation with RUSSIAN forces.
However, this week, in my opinion, SYRIANS in IDLIB rightfully feared a nearing end as the city of IDLIB is the last urban area still under opposition control in SYRIA, located in a shrinking rebel enclave, while representing the last rebel held enclave in SYRIA’s civil war, which entered its 10’th year this week. Therefore, in my opinion, the misery wreaked by the civil war has not diminished as a bloodier and possibly more disastrous phase is on the horizon, if government forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, go ahead with threats to recapture IDLIB city and the remaining rebel-held north, crammed with over 3 million people. In my opinion, over the last three months, SAA forces recaptured nearly half of IDLIB province and surrounding areas, forcing nearly 1 million to flee their homes, around half of them into other parts of the province, including IDLIB city. Furthermore, during the advances, SAA forces neared IDLIB city outskirts while bombing parts and sending thousands of citizens fleeing north. In my opinion, IDLIB residents now struggle with daily life as more than half a million children have been displaced by latest fighting and are living in desperate conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, although the government offensive may have been paused by a RUSSIAN and TURKISH cease-fire deal, residents of IDLIB are now living in a state of terrifying limbo, as they are sceptical whether the cease-fire will last, while being well aware that they are likely the next target of the last SAA assault.
However, in my opinion, the rebels still refuse to cede defeat as RUSSIAN Foreign Ministry stated that militant groups in the de-escalation zone in IDLIB have rearmed and are preparing to launch counterattacks against the SAA, while stressing the need to eliminate and hold them accountable for their actions. However, in my opinion, the militant groups have refrained from launching any major attacks as of yet as they know full well that the SAA and RUSSIAN militaries are ready, willing and able to launch a final assault on IDLIB.
Furthermore, in my opinion, SYRIAN and TURKISH armed forces sending reinforcements to the IDLIB on a daily basis, despite an ongoing ceasefire among all warring parties in the region, indicates that the SAA may be launching an offensive soon. Meanwhile, in my opinion, as men wage bloody battle for IDLIB, women sew facemasks to fight the next threat consisting of COVID-19 in sprawling refugee camps, as the official SYRIAN total of 317 deaths and 6,215 cases, does not seem to reflect potential risk of over 100,000 deaths if COVID-19 is allowed to spread without any mitigation. Nonetheless, it is not surprising that the SAA launched a new attack on the jihadist defenses along the southern IDLIB front lines where they saw an opening, as the SAA once again struck the defenses of the jihadist rebels after they moved more forces to the front lines near the town of AL-BARA. However, in my opinion, this week, it was not surprising to see the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) stating that it expects that RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN will reach a consensus to remove the head of the SYRIAN regime, Bashar Al-Assad, and establish a ceasefire in exchange for forming a transitional government that includes the opposition, members of the regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Thus, in my opinion, this decision would send a very clear political message, that the SYRIAN people do not want Bashar Al-Assad to remain President.
IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 692,950 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 38,800 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 38,800 people in Iran, with over 692,950 confirmed cases.
In regard to this week’s evidence that Iran has become a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, it is not surprising that authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Hence, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRANIAN government has been accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and not revealing the true extent of the crisis, as international officials fear the number of infections is much higher than the official count.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 612,800 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see that IRAN has now ordered the closure of nonessential businesses and banned travel between cities, albeit those measures came long after other countries in the region imposed more sweeping lockdowns. Thus, in my opinion, just over a week after saying that he expected the measures taken to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to be eased by early April, Hassan Rouhani now warned that the new way of life in IRAN was likely to be prolonged. Thus, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani hit the nail on the head that we must be prepared to live with this virus until a treatment or vaccine is discovered, which has not yet happened to date. Hence, the new way of life IRAN has adopted is to everyone’s benefit such that these changes will likely have to stay in place for some time. Therefore, the reopening of schools following IRAN’s Persian New Year holidays from March 19 to April 3 did not transpire as planned. However, Hassan Rouhani stated that on a positive note, top health experts and doctors advised him that in some provinces, IRAN has passed the peak of the epidemic and IRAN is now on a downward trajectory. Hence, in my opinion, IRAN continues to confront the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid a battle between Science and Conspiracy Theories. Thus, in my opinion, this touchiness appears to be hindering efforts to gather information about the COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not yet know the differences between IRAN isolates and others from MIDDLE EAST and ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Furthermore, this week, in my opinion, with ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN locked in a fresh conflict over the contested region of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, neighbouring IRAN finds itself in a delicate balancing act, with political, historical and ethnic considerations. Iran’s official stance, after having tried to resolve the long-running conflict in previous decades through diplomatic means, remains one of mediation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. In my opinion, IRAN also recognises several United Nations resolutions that stipulate NAGORNO-KARABAKH, which is controlled by ethnic ARMENIANS backed by ARMENIA, is part of AZERBAIJAN and that occupied AZERI lands must be returned. In my opinion, the region broke away from AZERBAIJAN in a war during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s but is not recognised by any country as an independent country, including ARMENIA. IRAN, which shares borders with both ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN, last week reassured AZERBAIJAN that it recognises its territorial integrity and that it holds an important place in IRANIAN foreign policy. In my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani also had a phone call with ARMENIAN Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian to call for conflict resolution through political discourse and international laws. However, there have been allegations that IRAN supports ARMENIA, which in turn is supported by RUSSIA. Recently, in my opinion, videos circulating on social media purportedly showed military equipment being transferred to ARMENIA via trucks passing through an IRANIAN border pass. However, IRAN quickly denied the allegations, saying they were baseless rumours aimed at smearing relations with AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, IRANIAN state television broadcast footage from the NORDOOZ border terminal where the vehicles in question were. They were shown to be Russian Kamaz trucks, which a local official said had been purchased by ARMENIA before the conflict and were being transported through IRAN. The trucks were shown to be carrying vehicle parts. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several rockets and shelling from the NAGORNO-KARABAKH fighting have landed on IRANIAN soil, with several shells hitting a residential area close to the border for the first time, injuring a six-year-old. In my opinion, IRANIAN foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reacted to the incident, saying the country will not tolerate the conflict spilling into its borders. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a current member of the parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, also believes the conflict cannot be resolved through anything but negotiations. According to Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, the two countries must put an end to fighting through peaceful means and negotiations that do not include other countries, like the U.S. and Israel, that don’t want the region to be peaceful. Fighting in the region will certainly be to the detriment of IRAN as well, such that IRAN must work toward ending the conflict.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, AZERBAIJAN’s forces have captured a strategically important city in the war for control of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, in a major breakthrough that effectively severs the disputed territory’s lifeline from ARMENIA. In my opinion, the seizure of Shusha threatens to isolate the mountainous ARMENIAN-controlled enclave and sets up a likely AZERI assault on its nearby capital, STEPANAKERT, after six weeks of fighting that has killed thousands on both sides. In my opinion, international efforts led by RUSSIA to enforce a ceasefire have repeatedly failed as AZERI forces, backed by TURKEY, have steadily captured swaths of territory surrounding the enclave, which is legally part of AZERBAIJAN but is populated by ethnic ARMENIANS and has been controlled by a YEREVAN-backed administration since the early 1990’s. SHUSHA, known as SHUSHI to ARMENIANS, is the second-largest city in NAGORNO-KARABAKH. In my opinion, its location on the snaking mountain road that links the enclave’s capital to the ARMENIAN border made it a crucial target for AZERBAIJAN, and military analysts have suggested that its capture would give AZERBAIJAN huge leverage in any potential peace talks over the future of the territory. This will become a great day in the history of AZERBAIJAN, the country’s president Ilham Aliyev said as he announced the capture of the city. The city of Shushi is completely out of our control, said Vahram Poghosyan, spokesman for the head of the enclave’s administration. The enemy is on the outskirts of STEPANAKERT; the existence of the capital is endangered. In my opinion, the announcement contradicted a statement by Armenia’s defence ministry that the city had not fallen but was subject to heavy fighting. In my opinion, backed by demonstrated aggression and willingness to fight rhetoric from TURKEY and a host of modern weapons purchased over the past decade that have overpowered ARMENIAN forces armed mainly with legacy equipment, AZERBAIJAN said its assault this autumn would not cease until it had recaptured the entire territory. In my opinion, RUSSIA, traditionally the pre-eminent power, has a mutual defence pact with ARMENIA and a military base in the country, but has steadfastly remained neutral throughout the recent fighting, seeking to protect its ties with AZERBAIJAN and wary of provoking a broader conflict with TURKEY. The mutual defence pact only covers attacks on ARMENIAN sovereign territory. Russia continues to make every effort to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by political and diplomatic means, as per RUSSIAN spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
However, in my opinion, it is impossible to claim that the IRANIAN government is solely responsible for the devastation COVID-19 has caused in IRAN. That is, in my opinion, the U.S. maximum pressure strategy against IRAN that commenced two years ago has placed IRAN under strict economic sanctions that limit its ability to trade with other nations. Furthermore, in my opinion, these sanctions, which choked off IRAN’s oil exports, crippled its economy and practically pushed it out of the international banking system, made it impossible for IRAN to swiftly take the necessary medical, economic and social measures to protect its citizens from COVID-19. In my opinion, the role U.S. sanctions have played, and continue to play, in the devastation caused by COVID-19 in Iran led to renewed discussions on the effectiveness, legality and legitimacy of sanctions not only in IRAN and the U.S., but also across the world. Thus, in my opinion, in IRAN, the IRANIAN government admitted that the sanctions make it difficult to obtain vital medical supplies and equipment to treat COVID-19 patients and called for their immediate lifting. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN frustrations were evident as IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the U.S. has moved from economic terrorism to medical terror by declining to lift the sanctions after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN and thus urging the international community to stop aiding war crimes by obeying illegal and immoral sanctions.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the OBAMA-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the 2015 Nuclear Accord. In my opinion, the U.S. remaining a participant in the IRAN nuclear accord that U.S. President Donald Trump renounced is part of a complex strategy to pressure the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council to extend an arms embargo on IRAN or see far more stringent sanctions re-imposed on IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, the strategy has begun to circulate in a new resolution in the U.N. Security Council that would bar countries from exporting conventional arms to IRAN after the current ban expires in October of 2020. However, in my opinion, any effort to renew the arms embargo is almost certain to be openly opposed by RUSSIA and privately by China, as the RUSSIANS have already told American and European officials, they are eager to resume conventional arms sales to IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, Mike Pompeo has approved a plan, under which the U.S. would, in essence, claim it legally remains a participant state in the 2015 Nuclear Deal that U.S. President Donald Trump denounced but only for the purposes of invoking a snapback that would restore the U.N. sanctions on IRAN that were in place before the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Obviously, in my opinion, EUROPEAN diplomats who have learned of the effort maintain that U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, are selectively choosing whether they are still in the agreement to fit their agenda.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 428” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 10,900, with total over 394,500 cases, as over 50.7 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 1,261,750 people dead, while LIBYAN ceasefire agreement faces hurdles, due to foreign intervention, as signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement, between LIBYA’s warring factions, was widely marketed as a key moment, that would redress LIBYA’s spiralling trajectory, while international exhilaration, that accompanied launch of these talks, renders obscure very real possibility, of a relapse into violent conflict, while what LIBYA’s people deserve is not misplaced optimism, but a genuine commitment to crafting a path towards accountability, reconciliation, & peace, while SAUDI ARABIA’s King Salman & Crown Prince MBS congratulated U.S. president elect Joe Biden, on winning the U.S. presidential election, wishing him success & further progress & prosperity for the American people, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 38,800 people in IRAN, with over 692,950 confirmed cases, while AZERBAIJAN’s forces have captured a strategically important city in the war for control of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, in a major breakthrough that effectively severs disputed territory’s lifeline from ARMENIA, while RUSSIA continues to make every effort to resolve NAGORNO-KARABAKH conflict by political and diplomatic means.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
November 15, 2020
/image%2F1573812%2F20160628%2Fob_f0b671_therockswebmarket-logo-eng-small.png){kind=logo}