World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 397
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 397” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY forced to extend measures against coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights & limiting work hours, to more stringent disinfection works, as death toll increased to over 130 with over 9,200 cases, while TURKEY’s central bank painted optimistic picture, whereby TURKISH economy will recover rapidly, while MOODY revised economic outlook downwards, amid warnings that TURKEY faces major shock from COVID-19, while SAUDI ARABIA reported 4 deaths from COVID-19 with over 1,300 cases, while not backing down from oil price war for market share, pledging another increase in crude oil exports, despite growing global glut amid crashing demand, as oil supply from U.S., Canada & China most likely to be curtailed at low oil prices, as WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price dropped from US$ 60 in January to around US$ 20, while IRAN President Hassan Rouhani hit back at criticism over IRAN response to coronavirus (COVID-19), as had to balance protecting IRAN sanctions-hit economy, while tackling worst outbreak in region, that has so far killed over 2,680 people in IRAN, with over 38,300 confirmed cases, while urging international community to lift U.S. imposed sanctions, while seeking U.S. $ 5 billion loan from IMF, as U.N. rights chief called for sanctions imposed on countries like IRAN facing new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, to be urgently re-evaluated, to avoid pushing strained medical systems into collapse, as IRAN continues to confront COVID-19 amid battle between Science & Conspiracy Theories, as touchiness hinders efforts to gather information about COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not know differences between IRAN & MIDDLE EAST & ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the RUSSIAN S-400 missile-defense system, that threatens to exacerbate tensions between TURKEY and the U.S., could result in future difficulties for TURKEY to obtain IMF financing. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to purchase the S-400, surface-to-air, missile defense system from RUSSIA, has completely ignored the U.S. opinion that the presence of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defense system on NATO soil would compromise the security of the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. has a valid point that if the S-400 missile batteries were deployed inside TURKEY, RUSSIA could obtain confidential information about the U.S. F-35, which is supposed to become NATO’s principal combat aircraft. Thus, in my opinion, given that TURKEY has consistently refused to abandon the RUSSIAN S-400 deal, the U.S. has threatened to withhold the sale of the U.S. F-35 fighter jets to TURKEY, or to impose sanctions on TURKEY under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s acquisition of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile systems has led many to wonder if TURKEY was moving away from its U.S. and Western allies, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be treating the RUSSIAN S-400 as a simple business transaction, as the governing AKP appears to realise how much TURKEY needs U.S. and European support to fuel the TURKISH economy and to maintain NATO security. In my opinion, given the size of the TURKISH economy, occasional partners like RUSSIA and IRAN cannot provide the cash necessary to mitigate a TURKISH economic crisis, while CHINA also seems to be unwilling to provide TURKEY with necessary economic support, as CHINA has been focusing on its own domestic economy issues. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY is more economically dependent on the U.S. and E.U. where trade ties are more balanced overall, compared to large TURKISH trade deficits with RUSSIA and CHINA. Thus, in my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to keep TURKEY within good relations with the U.S. and E.U. as this group accounts for over 55% of TURKISH trade, with the E.U. alone accounting for over 40%. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY’s economy has recovered from the difficulties it experienced since the end of 2018, but TURKEY should undertake additional reforms because it remains vulnerable to a variety of risks.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicate that TURKEY is providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRAN from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.
Hence, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, RUSSIA and IRAN, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction on IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting resulted in the SAA unleashing a powerful assault across the southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by the terrorist HTS rebels. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH forces have attempted to quell violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight.
In regards to the leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in north-western SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, that have backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be thorn in everybody’s sides. Thus, in my opinion, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to concede defeat.
However, in my opinion, it was shocking to see more than 70,000 people being forced to leave their homes in SYRIA, as TURKISH forces pushed further into the northeast of SYRIA against KURDISH YPG forces. Thus, in my opinion, the fighting that had been raging, as TURKISH forces had pounded KURDSH YPG forces relentlessly with air raids and artillery fire amid heavy fighting cannot be justified. In my opinion, the TURKISH government considering the KURDISH YPG as terrorists, by association to the KURDISH PKK, although the KURDISH YPG was the primary U.S. ally in the war against ISIS is absurd. Hence, in my opinion, it is obvious that over thirty years of bad blood between TURKEY and the KURDISH PKK has clouded TURKEY’s judgement to the point that they are unable to remain objective and impartial as concerns the KURDS such that their personal animosities have taken control and thus all KURDS are now seen as part of the terrorist mole. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG see the barrage of attacks by TURKEY as a U.S. betrayal and a knife in the back given that the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY took advantage of opening to pursue its goal of 20 miles deep “safe zone” along SYRIAN side of border being cleared of all KURDISH YPG fighters, where TURKEY wants to resettle up to two million SYRIAN refugees currently living in TURKEY. However, in my opinion, given that the TURKISH government fears KURDISH YPG forces in SYRIA will link up with Kurdish PKK rebels in TURKEY, who have been fighting for a breakaway KURDISH state for decades, TURKEY has become in substance paranoid, anxious and delusional schizophrenics as concerns the KURDS.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY reached an agreement with the U.S. to pause its military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces because TURKEY believes that it is closer to formally designating a safe zone along its border with SYRIA. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH fighters anticipated retaining parts of safe zone territories after having defeated ISIS with U.S. military support. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump stood by TURKEY’s ultimatum by stating that TURKEY has done what the U.S. has asked TURKEY to do. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see KURDISH YPG fighters completing their withdrawal from areas along the SYRIAN border. However, in my opinion, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN troops have moved into the border zone following the KURDISH YPG withdrawal, as the KURDISH YPG forces have now turned to RUSSIA and SAA government forces for protection. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing frustration that the world did not offer what he saw as sufficient support for TURKEY’s invasion of northern SYRIA, a measure he argued was designed to resettle refugees fleeing SYRIA’s eight-year conflict, is not surprising. In my opinion, the TURKISH leader played the victim card to Hollywood perfection by accusing foreign powers of prioritizing an oil grab in SYRIA over humanitarian causes, by stating that none of the efforts to protect oil wells has been spent on children fleeing barrels bombs, while arguing that when TURKEY did not see the support TURKEY wanted from the international community in the face of this sad picture, TURKEY had to take care of itself. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s comments were a discreet jab at U.S. President Donald Trump, who refused to back TURKEY’s operation against KURDISH forces but instead withdrew U.S. troops further east to maintain control of oil fields. Thus, TURKEY has entered into a trilateral peace process with top SYRIAN international supporters consisting of RUSSIA and IRAN, while the U.S. has focused its efforts on ISIS while essentially avoiding the SAA under the command of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad.
In regards to TURKEY making it clear this week that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 130 with a total of over 9,200 cases. Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKEY’s central bank painted an optimistic picture about the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), saying the MIDDLE EAST’s biggest economy is resilient to such shocks. Thus, in my opinion, it is not surprising that as the pace of the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) decelerates, TURKEY anticipates that the TURKISH economy will recover rapidly, such that TURKISH economy will be among those that will recover quickly with minimum damage caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19). Ironically, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKEY’s economic outlook has been revised downwards by the international rating agency Moody’s amid warnings that the TURKEY faces a major shock from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Thus, in my opinion, the warnings of the international rating agency Moody’s cannot be ignored, as it expects TURKEY’s economy to be hit the hardest among G20 economies. That is, in my opinion, the TURKISH tourism sector, which accounts for over 13% of TURKEY’s $753 billion economy, will be badly hit by domestic travel restrictions and falling demand because of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA being ranked as the world’s top ease of doing business improver by the World Bank Group’s Doing Business 2020 Report is not surprising, as it is important to note that the report indicates that SAUDI ARABIA has jumped 72 global positions in “Trading Across Borders”, an indicator which compares the time and cost of exporting and importing goods. Thus, in my opinion, critical reforms have facilitated SAUDI ARABIA’s drive to be positioned as one of the world’s most dynamic logistics hubs. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s most consistent foreign policy of defending SAUDI ARABIA has helped elevate SAUDI ARABIA on the international stage, as when U.S. President Donald Trump is not axing legislation he deems hostile to SAUDI ARABIAN concerns, he is speaking on SAUDI ARABIA’s behalf. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump who places a high priority on the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN relationship, while seeing SAUDI ARABIA as an eager customer for U.S. arms, and a useful proxy in U.S. confrontations with IRAN, made SAUDI ARABIA first official foreign destination of his presidency, where he helped unveil a counterterrorism center run by SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has built up an alliance of personal and political contacts with prominent SAUDI ARABIAN royals and, in particular, Crown Prince MBS. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump decided some time ago that he would be in SAUDI ARABIA’s corner, such that there is not any circumstance under which he would feel the need to rethink that strategy.
In regards to this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MAKKAH and MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. In regards to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak disrupting the world economy, with fewer planes flying, ships sailing and factories producing, it is not surprising to see recent declines in oil prices. However, in my opinion, when oil prices commence plummeting, they tend to bring world stock prices down with them. In my opinion, the main reason why coronavirus (COVID-19) is a threat to oil prices is that CHINA is the main new consumer of oil in the world, as CHINA alone contributes about 33% of new consumption of oil each year, and ASIA more broadly about 50% of new consumption. Therefore, in my opinion, if the demand for oil slows down in the region because people are not travelling or factories are not producing as a result of coronavirus (COVID-19), oil prices will inevitably sink. However, it is not surprising that this time OPEC and RUSSIA failed to agree on a way to deal with the price fall as SAUDI ARABIA has pushed for even deeper cuts to production, while RUSSIA had disagreed and thus appeared unwilling to bear the brunt of more cuts. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA’s oil industry is entirely state-run, which means it is more able to make strategic decisions about matching production levels to their desired price while RUSSIA has powerful private sector interests that means that drops in the price of oil are more difficulty to manage.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be managing the coronavirus (COVID-19) well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting 4 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 1,300. Meanwhile, it is surprising that SAUDI ARABIA is not backing down from the oil price war for market share, pledging another increase in its crude oil exports, starting in May of 2020, despite a growing global glut amid crashing demand. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA appears to have ignored market fundamentals as it intends to increase its crude oil exports, starting from May of 2020, by about 600 thousand barrels per day, bringing the total of SAUDI ARABIAN petroleum exports to 10.6 million barrels per day. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA, OPEC’s top producer and the world’s top oil exporter, continues to signal an aggressive supply surge amid profoundly depressed global demand. Hence, in my opinion, Brent Crude once again plunged on the world markets by 5.5% percent to hit a low of $ 20 per barrel, as no deal appears to be able to save the market right now as demand destruction could reach 20 million bpd or more in the coming weeks. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA signalled no breakthrough in the oil price war with RUSSIA, stating that SAUDI ARABIA was not in talks with RUSSIA to stabilize the oil market despite the U.S. pressuring both sides to end the price war. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19), and an unrelenting price war between SAUDI ARABIA and RUSSIA that shows no signs of easing. Hence, in my opinion, with RUSSIA and SAUDI ARABIA showing no signs of compromising in their standoff over oil supply, low oil prices appear to be here to stay for the long-term. However, in my opinion, the oil supply from the U.S., Canada and China are the most likely to be curtailed at low oil prices while U.S. oil production cuts are expected to be the most significant. Furthermore, in my opinion, storage capacity is filling fast and may soon run out unless there is an urgent supply cut, as the world is facing a hugely deflationary shock, as the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price has dropped from US$ 60 in January to around US$ 20 which is used as a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing. WTI is also known as Texas light sweet as this grade is described as light crude oil because of its relatively low density, and sweet because of its low sulphur content.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
Thus, in my opinion, advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as prime focus of discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. Therefore, I was not surprised to see IRAQI President Barham Salih focus on U.S. & IRANIAN tensions by clearly stating that war is the last thing the MIDDLE EAST needs, as the last war on terror against ISIS has not yet been completed.
Furthermore, in my opinion, MIDDLE EAST is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and threat of war between U.S. & IRAN, while certain that IRAQ would be caught in middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in background, as he has stated that one reason he wants to keep a base in IRAQ is to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN. That is, U.S. sees IRAN as real problem, although when U.S. President Donald Trump asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, he clearly stated no, as all he wants to do in IRAQ is monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wants to make sure that there are no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, IRAQ was forced to impose a nationwide total lockdown until March 28, 2020 in order to enforce measures to fight the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In my opinion, although IRAQ has only logged a total of over 500 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and recorded over 40 deaths, there remain valid concerns that many more are going undetected, as only around 4,000 people of IRAQ’s 40 million plus population have been tested thus far. Therefore, in my opinion, although most of IRAQ’s 18 provinces have already imposed their own local curfews, new measures will include the whole of IRAQ, according to a decision by IRAQ’s crisis management team were necessary. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has been forced to close schools, universities and other gathering places, including IRAQ’s multiple international airports. However, in my opinion, IRAQI authorities have been struggling to enforce previous curfews, as many thousands of SHIA pilgrims turned out in the capital of BAGHDAD and other cities in the south of IRAQ to commemorate the death of a revered Muslim imam, Musa al-Kadhim, with reports saying up to 400,000 people trying to attend his shrine north of BAGHDAD, as al-Kadhim was the seventh of 12 imams considered the spiritual and political successors to the Prophet Muhammad.
However, in my opinion, in the backdrop does linger the possibility of the relationship between IRAQ and the U.S. being on the brink of collapse, as IRAQ seeks to form a new government, with its parliament on record as recommending that U.S. forces be expelled from IRAQ due to the January’ 2020 killing of IRANIAN terror mastermind Qassam Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, tensions were once again inflamed by the U.S. retaliation, on March 13, 2020, for recent rocket barrages against U.S. and allied forces in IRAQ by IRANIAN-backed militias that killed two U.S. soldiers and one British soldier. Subsequently, in my opinion, another round of barrages occurred by IRANIAN-backed militias, with the potential for yet more U.S. retaliations. Therefore, in my opinion, the U.S. and IRAQI partnership appears to be in danger namely due to IRAN’s solid presence in IRAQ which would be a tragic shame if it ended as for Iraq, U.S. presence is great counterweight to IRAN and ISIS, while U.S. also helpful with IRAQI internal politics, especially in regard to sectarian divisions in IRAQI security forces. In my opinion, KURDISH, SHIA and SUNNI IRAQIS may all have their issues with the U.S. but little view the U.S. as inherently biased against them such that the U.S. serves its purpose well as a balancing force in IRAQ amongst competing interests.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from front pages of major news publications, as escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases level of impunity for SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, RUSSIA and IRAN, that continue to enjoy impunity while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting have resulted in SAA unleashing powerful assaults across southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by terrorist HTS rebels, as SAA repeatedly fired several artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles towards HTS positions. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH forces have attempted to quell the violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight.
Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s sides. Hence, in my opinion, after offensives in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as HTS rebels refuse to concede defeat. Nonetheless, in my opinion, SAA and RUSSIA now once again seriously considering a new offensive in IDLIB, after exchanging perpetual fire with HTS rebels near demilitarized zone, as patience is wearing thin in northern HAMA, southern IDLIB and western ALEPPO after several ceasefire violations by HTS rebels. In my opinion, SAA has responded to ceasefire violations, but they have not yet launched any storming operation against HTS and their allies because they seem to be waiting to see if TURKEY will dismantle HTS, before the SAA military launches a new major military offensive to further weaken HTS rebels.
In regards to this week’s escalated SYRIA and TURKEY tensions in IDLIB as crowded camps, closed borders and cold weather raised fears of another humanitarian crisis, IDLIB appears to be heading in the direction of all out war with over 700,000 displaced civilians. In my opinion, fierce fighting in IDLIB has resulted in the largest mass displacement of civilians in the SYRIAN war to date; leaving hundreds of thousands of people camped out in tents on the TURKISH border in sub-zero conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, the aid operation by the U.N. in IDLIB being overwhelmed was not surprising, as the number of people displaced by the SAA offensive continues to rise, with most of the 900,000 that have fled since December of 2019, consisting of women and children. Furthermore, in my opinion, UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, Mark Lowcock, hit the nail on the head when he warned that the biggest humanitarian horror story of the 21’st Century in IDLIB could only be avoided with a ceasefire, given that babies and small children were dying because of the cold, with people being forced to sleep outside in freezing temperatures, as camps were full.
Thus, in my opinion, this week’s deal signed by TURKEY with RUSSIA to cease fighting in IDLIB was not surprising, after an attack by SAA forces killed 36 TURKISH soldiers, that triggered a heavy TURKISH response. In my opinion, the loss of the key strategic town of SARAQEB in IDLIB, by rebel forces in northwest SYRIA, means that TURKEY has lost the war for the last rebel-held province to SAA forces that are set on recapturing all lost territories in SYRIA. That is, in my opinion, the battle over SARAQEB, near the intersection of the key M4 and M5 highways, has been simmering for weeks before TURKEY launched its retaliatory operation. Hence, in my opinion, the military operation that TURKEY launched failed to make headway in SARAQEB, such that the situation facing TURKISH-backed rebel fighters was so dire that they were forced to give up all independent operations, and thus intermixed themselves within TURKISH troops to avoid being targeted by SAA and Russian Air Forces. Thus, in my opinion, for SYRIA and RUSSIA, the battle of SARAQEB was about restoring SYRIAN sovereignty over the totality of SYRIAN territory, while for TURKEY, it was about securing lasting TURKISH control and influence over the northwestern Syrian province of IDLIB such that TURKEY lost on both accounts. In my opinion, the ceasefire deal that TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached with RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin was in substance a document of surrender by TURKISH forces that ceded control of the air above IDLIB and forced TURKEY to jointly patrol M4 highway with RUSSIAN military patrols, while TURKEY also tasked with disarming jihadist groups that have been fiercest rebel fighters in IDLIB.
Hence, in my opinion, at this stage three scenarios are still possible for IDLIB consisting of the FIRST and most favourable being for TURKEY & RUSSIA to agree to uphold the de-escalation zone agreement in IDLIB while ordering SAA forces to return to the positions they held before their latest offensive. Furthermore, this could be combined with a revival of the political process and resumption of meetings with the goal of drafting amendments to SYRIAN constitution agreed upon by current regime, opposition forces and international community. However, although TURKEY has tried to push for such a settlement by threatening military action if SAA forces did not pull back, the likelihood of this happening on the ground now seems unlikely, in light of recent SAA advances. The SECOND scenario would be TURKEY accepting new realities on ground and allowing SAA to control M4 & M5 highways, but using force to limit any further SAA advances. Furthermore, TURKEY could seek to establish a safe zone in IDLIB by setting up re-enforced defence positions along frontline and supplying Syrian opposition with heavy weapons, especially anti-aircraft missiles. In my opinion, it appears that TURKEY Ankara has already adopted this policy on the ground given that two SAA helicopters were downed in IDLIB with anti-aircraft weapons. The THIRD scenario and the one that Turkey wants to avoid is an escalation with RUSSIA, as the presence of anti-aircraft weapons on ground raises risk of RUSSIAN aircraft being shot down. Furthermore, the TURKISH military is likely to take precautions to avoid such a dangerous development, but given massive deployments on the ground, TURKEY is the closest it has been since 2015 to a direct confrontation with RUSSIAN forces.
However, this week, in my opinion, SYRIANS in IDLIB rightfully feared a nearing end as the city of IDLIB is the last urban area still under opposition control in SYRIA, located in a shrinking rebel enclave, while representing the last rebel held enclave in SYRIA’s civil war, which entered its 10’th year this week. Therefore, in my opinion, the misery wreaked by the civil war has not diminished as a bloodier and possibly more disastrous phase is on the horizon, if government forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, go ahead with threats to recapture IDLIB city and the remaining rebel-held north, crammed with over 3 million people. In my opinion, over the last three months, SAA forces recaptured nearly half of IDLIB province and surrounding areas, forcing nearly 1 million to flee their homes, around half of them into other parts of the province, including IDLIB city. Furthermore, during the advances, SAA forces neared IDLIB city outskirts while bombing parts and sending thousands of citizens fleeing north. In my opinion, IDLIB residents now struggle with daily life as more than half a million children have been displaced by latest fighting and are living in desperate conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, although the government offensive may have been paused by a RUSSIAN and TURKISH cease-fire deal, residents of IDLIB are now living in a state of terrifying limbo, as they are sceptical whether the cease-fire will last, while being well aware that they are likely the next target of the last SAA assault. However, in my opinion, the rebels still refuse to cede defeat as RUSSIAN Foreign Ministry stated that militant groups in the de-escalation zone in IDLIB have rearmed and are preparing to launch counter-attacks against the SAA, while stressing the need to eliminate and hold them accountable for their actions. However, in my opinion, the militant groups have refrained from launching any major attacks as of yet as they know full well that the SAA and RUSSIAN militaries are ready, willing and able to launch a final assault on IDLIB.
IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, obvious that IRAN operates in grey zone as concerns decisions towards U.S., as IRAN takes decisions between peace and open military conflict, by denying use of force to minimize consequences and future escalations. Thus, in my opinion, given that IRAN has been able to survive U.S. imposed sanctions that have now reached a climax, with limited possibilities for additional future sanctions, the U.S. should contest IRAN in gray zone. That is, in my opinion, to restore deterrence while minimizing risks of escalations, U.S. should consider using limited U.S. military actions that fly under radar screen like IRAN, but which IRAN still recognizes as executed by U.S. In my opinion, U.S. should adopt a similar military policy like IRAN to operate in grey zone with covert military strikes on strategic assets, without accepting any formal responsibilities, in order to minimize risk of a full blown military conflict. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN and RUSSIA obviously condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain a military presence near oil fields in northeastern SYRIA, with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov stating that any exploitation of oil resources by the U.S. would be deemed illegal. In my opinion, the U.S. obviously stated that the return of U.S. forces to SYRIA, after their transfer to IRAQ, was under the pretext of protecting oil deposits from ISIS.
However, in my opinion, U.S. imposed sanctions on additional senior IRANIAN officials for human rights abuses, as U.S. President Donald Trump increased its maximum pressure campaign on IRAN by imposing sanctions on judges, was not surprising. In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was forced to denounce the recent violent crackdown by IRANIAN authorities against widespread protests, as the U.S. targeted two top IRANIAN judges with penalties, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assailed IRANIAN officials for hypocrisy, by depriving citizens, particularly ethnic and religious minorities of their constitutional rights. However, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani warning that his nuclear experts are testing advanced centrifuges while claiming that the IRANIAN economy is rebounding despite crippling U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, rising tensions between IRAN and U.S. are not a signal that diplomacy will fail but rather represent a warning that negotiations are a must and soon.
In my opinion, protests in IRAN came at delicate time, in tense standoff, between the U.S. and IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, with IRANIAN elections approaching, and without any U.S. agreement to desist from U.S. imposed sanctions, the current IRANIAN government might well lose all of its influence, in favour of far more confrontational hard-liners. Thus, in my opinion, it appears that U.S. and IRAN have drawn diametrically opposed interpretations of upheaval’s causes and consequences, rendering any effort at de-escalation unlikely. Hence, in my opinion, the unrest, triggered by an abrupt hike in fuel prices, quickly evolved into a violent nationwide revolt against ruling IRANIAN order. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump saw austerity measure as a direct result of its maximum pressure policy, and cried success, as in U.S. minds, the stifling impact of U.S. imposed sanctions had prompted public ire, and could soon persuade IRAN’s leaders to alter their domestic and foreign policies in order to retain power.
However, in my opinion, IRAN’s rulers believe that they crushed an American plot when they crushed the unrest quickly and decisively, and that by doing that, they rendered U.S. President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign far less effective. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN leadership is also confident that it has demonstrated its determination to defeat any challenge to its hold on power, by having killed more than 300 protesters and completely shutting down the Internet for more than a week. In addition, in my opinion, recent attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, which the U.S. and its allies have attributed to IRAN, is treated in IRAN as a demonstration of their power at home and throughout the region. Thus, in my opinion, if U.S. President Donald Trump is interested in a deal with IRAN, now is the optimum time, as there is no immediate prospect of a change in IRAN’s government structure, and further instability in IRAN will only render deal-making nearly impossible. Thus, in my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani’s government remains U.S. President Donald Trump’s best bet, and there is only a small window before maximum pressure completely sidelines any possibilities for civilized negotiations and diplomatic resolutions.
In regards airstrikes that hit Baghdad International Airport, whereby IRANIAN PMF group leaders were killed by U.S. including Senior General, Qassem Soleimani; Deputy Commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis; and Protocol Officer and Head of Public Relations, Mohammed Reza al-Jaberi, in my opinion, tensions are obviously at an all time high in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump took responsibility for the assassination on the basis that the U.S. military took decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel by killing Senior General, Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump justified U.S. actions on the basis that Senior General, Qassem Soleimani killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more while blaming Senior General Qassem Soleimani for being directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people. However, in my opinion, the U.S. was now forced to send 3,000 additional troops to the MIDDLE EAST amid rising tensions in the region following this assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif obviously condemned the assassination by stating that the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism. Thus, in my opinion, the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital point for American destroyers and warships, now represent 35 vital U.S. targets in the region for IRAN as well as TEL AVIV, ISRAEL.
However, in my opinion, IRAN furor became evident as an IRANIAN legislator offered a US$ 3 million reward to anyone who kills U.S. President Donald Trump to avenge the assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Obviously, in my opinion, the U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood dismissed the reward as ridiculous on the basis that it demonstrated the terrorist underpinnings of IRAN’s government. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh, the little-known member of IRANIAN parliament, offered the US$ 3 million bounty on behalf of the people of KERMAN, based on sentimental attachments as the hometown and final resting place of the revered Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh also stated that IRAN should start producing nuclear weapons and delivery systems to protect it, in order to capitalize on the anti-American sentiment currently flogging the mass IRANIAN populace. In addition, Ahmad Hamzeh capitalized on IRANIAN resentment towards the Americans by stating that if IRAN had nuclear weapons today IRAN would be protected from threats, such that IRAN should put the production of long-range missiles capable of carrying unconventional warheads on its military agenda, as the natural right of IRAN to protect itself from the U.S. Thus, in my opinion, tensions have steadily escalated between IRAN and the U.S. with a 2015 Nuclear Deal standoff erupting into tit-for-tat military attacks with the killing of Senior General Qassem Soleimani and IRAN’s missile barrage on a base in IRAQ that housed American forces albeit the attack did not cause any U.S. casualties.
In regards to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 38,300 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 2,650 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 2,680 people in Iran, with over 38,300 confirmed cases.
In regards to this week’s evidence that Iran has become a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, it is not surprising that authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Furthermore, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRAN has become the country with the third-highest number of recorded coronavirus cases in the world outside of CHINA, behind SOUTH KOREA and ITALY. However, in my opinion, it is also not surprising that IRANIAN government has been accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and not revealing the true extent of the crisis, as international officials fear the number of infections is much higher than the official count.
Furthermore, in my opinion, a variety of other indicators suggest that far more people in IRAN have become infected than 38,300. That is, a government website invited IRANIANS to submit details of symptoms they were experiencing whereby after 2 million responses, about 9% reported COVID-19 symptoms. In the U.S., among those whose symptoms and history have led them to be tested for COVID-19, about 10% have eventually tested positive. Thus, if that rate of 9% holds, IRAN would have 730,000 cases as opposed to the official tally of 38,300 plus. Ironically, the average of multitudes of estimates surfacing regarding IRAN, estimates that about 2 million people have contracted the coronavirus (COVID-19), which is over 52 times the official number. However, in my opinion, there are many unknowns that make IRANIAN estimates difficult to assess, which is why experts have to attack the problem from multiple angles, with the assumption that errors in one approach do not correlate to errors in the others, and get rounded out in the average of 2 million.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 23,000 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Meanwhile, this week, I was not surprised to see IRAN President Hassan Rouhani hit back at criticism over IRAN’s response to the coronavirus (COVID-19), saying that he had to balance protecting IRAN’s sanctions-hit economy, while tackling the worst outbreak in the region. Furthermore, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani accurately described international outcry at the IRAN government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN as a political war, while he was forced to balance protecting the economy while tackling COVID-19. That is, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani correctly reiterated that the IRAN government had to consider the effect of mass quarantine efforts on IRAN’s embattled economy, which is still under heavy U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN is no different than the rest of the world as leaders are struggling to strike a balance between containing the COVID-19 pandemic and preventing their economies from crashing. Hence, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani correctly highlighted that health is a principle for IRAN, but the production and security of society is also a principle for IRAN, such that both principals must be balanced together to reach a final decision such that this is not the time to gather followers or the time for a political war. However, in my opinion, IRAN has now made the right strategic manoeuvres by urging the international community to lift the U.S. imposed sanctions while seeking a $ 5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN received the backing from the United Nations (U.N.) rights chief who called for any sanctions imposed on countries like IRAN facing the new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to be urgently re-evaluated to avoid pushing strained medical systems into collapse. Therefore, in my opinion, U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet clearly stated that at this crucial time, both for global public health reasons, and to support the rights and lives of millions of people in these countries, sectorial sanctions should be eased or suspended.
Therefore, in my opinion, although IRAN has now ordered the closure of nonessential businesses and banned travel between cities, those measures came long after other countries in the region imposed more sweeping lockdowns. Thus, in my opinion, just over a week after saying that he expected the measures taken to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to be eased by early April, Hassan Rouhani now warned on that the new way of life in IRAN was likely to be prolonged. Thus, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani hit the nail on the head that we must be prepared to live with this virus until a treatment or vaccine is discovered, which has not yet happened to date. Hence, the new way of life IRAN has adopted is to everyone’s benefit such that these changes will likely have to stay in place for some time. Therefore, the reopening of schools following IRAN’s Persian New Year holidays from March 19 to April 3 did not transpire as planned. However, Hassan Rouhani, stated that on a positive note, top health experts and doctors advised him that in some provinces, IRAN has passed the peak of the epidemic and IRAN is now on a downward trajectory. Hence, in my opinion, IRAN continues to confront the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid a battle between Science and Conspiracy Theories. Thus, in my opinion, this touchiness appears to be hindering efforts to gather information about the COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not yet know the differences between IRAN isolates and others from MIDDLE EAST and ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 397” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY forced to extend measures against coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights & limiting work hours, to more stringent disinfection works, as death toll increased to over 130 with over 9,200 cases, while TURKEY’s central bank painted optimistic picture, whereby TURKISH economy will recover rapidly, while MOODY revised economic outlook downwards, amid warnings that TURKEY faces major shock from COVID-19, while SAUDI ARABIA reported 4 deaths from COVID-19 with over 1,300 cases, while not backing down from oil price war for market share, pledging another increase in crude oil exports, despite growing global glut amid crashing demand, as oil supply from U.S., Canada & China most likely to be curtailed at low oil prices, as WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price dropped from US$ 60 in January to around US$ 20, while IRAN President Hassan Rouhani hit back at criticism over IRAN response to coronavirus (COVID-19), as had to balance protecting IRAN sanctions-hit economy, while tackling worst outbreak in region, that has so far killed over 2,680 people in IRAN, with over 38,300 confirmed cases, while urging international community to lift U.S. imposed sanctions, while seeking U.S. $ 5 billion loan from IMF, as U.N. rights chief called for sanctions imposed on countries like IRAN facing new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, to be urgently re-evaluated, to avoid pushing strained medical systems into collapse, as IRAN continues to confront COVID-19 amid battle between Science & Conspiracy Theories, as touchiness hinders efforts to gather information about COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not know differences between IRAN & MIDDLE EAST & ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
April 5, 2020
April 5, 2020
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