World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 393

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 393

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 393” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY openly declared war against SYRIAN government of President Bashar al-Assad, after suffering worst military losses in single attack of war, with at least 36 TURKISH soldiers killed & over 30 wounded in SYRIAN & RUSSIAN air & artillery strikes in IDLIB, while advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels, who took control of city of AL-HAZM, bordering SAUDI ARABIA, by storming city & seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA & UAE, due to military & political leaders staying outside of YEMEN, & being engaged with side battles, instead of Coup D’État, while SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspended entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or visiting Prophet’s mosque in MEDINA & MAKKAH over fears of deadly coronavirus, COVID-19, as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST at all time high, while IRAN has become hotbed for COVID-19, outside of CHINA, with neighbours nervous after virus so far killed over 65 people in IRAN, with over 1,500 confirmed cases, as authorities around world scramble to expand travel restrictions, to stem spread of disease, with at least seven high-ranking IRANIAN officials including Deputy Health Minister, Vice-President & five other Members Of Parliament testing positive for COVID-19, while one adviser to IRAN Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died after contracting COVID-19, as IRAN on high alert, as stress levels now reaching boiling points, with IRAN’s fatality rate at 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in CHINA & 1.5% elsewhere, such that appears that COVID-19 came unseen & undetected into IRAN.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In regards to TURKISH inflation slowing down sharply into single digits, I expect another showdown between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his new central banker, Murat Uysal, who hinted at limited room for more monetary easing. In my opinion, TURKEY’s real interest rate is now among the highest in emerging markets, such that the big challenge is to manage the political aspects of the gap between the current TURKISH government policy interest rate at 16.5% and a single-digit inflation rate. Therefore, in my opinion, the good news could turn into a headache for TURKISH Bank Governor, Murat Uysal, whose predecessor was fired for not cutting interest rates fast enough. Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains fixated on lower interest rates, which he believes would only curb inflation, while Murat Uysal signalled that the TURKISH central bank might look to moderate its pace of interest rate cuts. However, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s quest for TURKEY’s economic rebirth is already struggling while setting out a goal of 5% growth for 2020-2022 after slashing 2019 forecast to near zero. In my opinion, TURKEY also anticipates that an economic surge is possible without triggering a rise in inflation and generating a huge gap in the current account that haunted TURKEY’s previous economic recoveries.

In my opinion, the RUSSIAN S-400 missile-defense system, that threatens to exacerbate tensions between TURKEY and the U.S., could result in future difficulties for TURKEY to obtain IMF financing. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to purchase the S-400, surface-to-air, missile defense system from RUSSIA, has completely ignored the U.S. opinion that the presence of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defense system on NATO soil would compromise the security of the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. has a valid point that if the S-400 missile batteries were deployed inside TURKEY, RUSSIA could obtain confidential information about the U.S. F-35, which is supposed to become NATO’s principal combat aircraft. Thus, in my opinion, given that TURKEY has consistently refused to abandon the RUSSIAN S-400 deal, the U.S. has threatened to withhold the sale of the U.S. F-35 fighter jets to TURKEY, or to impose sanctions on TURKEY under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s acquisition of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile systems has led many to wonder if TURKEY was moving away from its U.S. and Western allies, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be treating the RUSSIAN S-400 as a simple business transaction, as the governing AKP appears to realise how much TURKEY needs U.S. and European support to fuel the TURKISH economy and to maintain NATO security. In my opinion, given the size of the TURKISH economy, occasional partners like RUSSIA and IRAN cannot provide the cash necessary to mitigate a TURKISH economic crisis, while CHINA also seems to be unwilling to provide TURKEY with necessary economic support, as CHINA has been focusing on its own domestic economy issues. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY is more economically dependent on the U.S. and E.U. where trade ties are more balanced overall, compared to large TURKISH trade deficits with RUSSIA and CHINA. Thus, in my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to keep TURKEY within good relations with the U.S. and E.U. as this group accounts for over 55% of TURKISH trade, with the E.U. alone accounting for over 40%. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY’s economy has recovered from the difficulties it experienced since the end of 2018, but TURKEY should undertake additional reforms because it remains vulnerable to a variety of risks.

In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicate that TURKEY is providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRAN from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

Hence, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, RUSSIA and IRAN, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction on IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting resulted in the SAA unleashing a powerful assault across the southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by the terrorist HTS rebels. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH forces have attempted to quell violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight.

In regards to the leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in north-western SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, that have backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be thorn in everybody’s sides. Thus, in my opinion, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to concede defeat.

However, in my opinion, it was shocking to see more than 70,000 people being forced to leave their homes in SYRIA, as TURKISH forces pushed further into the northeast of SYRIA against KURDISH YPG forces. Thus, in my opinion, the fighting that had been raging, as TURKISH forces had pounded KURDSH YPG forces relentlessly with air raids and artillery fire amid heavy fighting cannot be justified. In my opinion, the TURKISH government considering the KURDISH YPG as terrorists, by association to the KURDISH PKK, although the KURDISH YPG was the primary U.S. ally in the war against ISIS is absurd. Hence, in my opinion, it is obvious that over thirty years of bad blood between TURKEY and the KURDISH PKK has clouded TURKEY’s judgement to the point that they are unable to remain objective and impartial as concerns the KURDS such that their personal animosities have taken control and thus all KURDS are now seen as part of the terrorist mole. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG see the barrage of attacks by TURKEY as a U.S. betrayal and a knife in the back given that the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY took advantage of opening to pursue its goal of 20 miles deep “safe zone” along SYRIAN side of border being cleared of all KURDISH YPG fighters, where TURKEY wants to resettle up to two million SYRIAN refugees currently living in TURKEY. However, in my opinion, given that the TURKISH government fears KURDISH YPG forces in SYRIA will link up with Kurdish PKK rebels in TURKEY, who have been fighting for a breakaway KURDISH state for decades, TURKEY has become in substance paranoid, anxious and delusional schizophrenics as concerns the KURDS.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY reached an agreement with the U.S. to pause its military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces because TURKEY believes that it is closer to formally designating a safe zone along its border with SYRIA. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH fighters anticipated retaining parts of safe zone territories after having defeated ISIS with U.S. military support. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump stood by TURKEY’s ultimatum by stating that TURKEY has done what the U.S. has asked TURKEY to do. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see KURDISH YPG fighters completing their withdrawal from areas along the SYRIAN border. However, in my opinion, RUSSIAN and SYRIAN troops have moved into the border zone following the KURDISH YPG withdrawal, as the KURDISH YPG forces have now turned to RUSSIA and SAA government forces for protection. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing frustration that the world did not offer what he saw as sufficient support for TURKEY’s invasion of northern SYRIA, a measure he argued was designed to resettle refugees fleeing SYRIA’s eight-year conflict, is not surprising. In my opinion, the TURKISH leader played the victim card to Hollywood perfection by accusing foreign powers of prioritizing an oil grab in SYRIA over humanitarian causes, by stating that none of the efforts to protect oil wells has been spent on children fleeing barrels bombs, while arguing that when TURKEY did not see the support TURKEY wanted from the international community in the face of this sad picture, TURKEY had to take care of itself. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s comments were a discreet jab at U.S. President Donald Trump, who refused to back TURKEY’s operation against KURDISH forces but instead withdrew U.S. troops further east to maintain control of oil fields. Thus, TURKEY has entered into a trilateral peace process with top SYRIAN international supporters consisting of RUSSIA and IRAN, while the U.S. has focused its efforts on ISIS while essentially avoiding the SAA under the command of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad.

In regards to this week’s TURKEY declaring major offensive against SAA, after suffering its worst casualties in years, such that TURKEY has openly declared war against the SYRIAN government of President Bashar al-Assad, it is not surprising as ceasefire agreement was clearly violated. Thus, in my opinion, after suffering its worst military losses in a single attack of the war, with at least 36 TURKISH soldiers killed and more than 30 wounded in SYRIAN and RUSSIAN air and artillery strikes, TURKEY was forced to escalate its rhetoric to control recent ferocious military incursions. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was forced to vow retaliation and demand that SAA troops withdraw beyond a previously agreed upon de-escalation zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY’s defense minister, Hulusi Akar, hit the nail on the head by stating that all efforts were primarily to insure a cease-fire, to prevent migration, to stop the flow of blood and thus to bring peace and stability to the region as soon as possible. Furthermore, in my opinion, Hulusi Akar precisely stated that although the show of TURKISH force was not aimed against RUSSIA, RUSSIA responsible for the SAA assaults against TURKISH forces, as guarantor of SAA, as part of previous negotiations between TURKEY and RUSSIA. However, in my opinion, Hulusi Akar also stated that TURKEY does not intend to confront RUSSIA, as TURKEY’s only aim in SYRIA is to stop the massacre by SAA forces, as TURKEY does not want a head to head war with RUSSIA. In my opinion, TURKEY’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that millions of migrants and refugees will soon be forced to head towards Europe, as TURKEY can no longer enforce a 2016 deal with the EU to prevent migrants from entering Europe, as TURKEY cannot cope with a new wave of SYRIAN refugees. Thus, in my opinion, given that Turkey is already hosting over 3.7 MILLION SYRIAN refugees, with over 1 million SYRIANS having fled to the TURKISH border from IDLIB area, amid heavy fighting between TURKISH-backed rebels and SAA government forces, TURKEY cannot shoulder any incremental heavy burden of refugees from an all out civil war in IDLIB.

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

In my opinion, U.S. and SAUDI ARABIA stepped up efforts to protect SAUDI ARABIA’s oil production, by connecting SAUDI ARABIAN missile defenses to U.S. systems and investigating new anti-drone technologies, after attacks knocked out half of SAUDI ARABIA’s crude oil production. In my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump is wisely resisting starting a new war in the MIDDLE EAST, his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, that IRAN has chose to weather the storm, has put him on the spot to do something, especially after recent attacks on SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. has been focused on U.S. imposed sanctions, with the U.S. has already sanctioned almost every sanctionable thing in IRANIAN economy, including placing a terrorist designation on IRANIAN central bank. However, in my opinion, the Trump Administration is now also trying to appear tough by dispatching 1,800 more U.S. troops to SAUDI ARABIA, while reconciling this deployment with his statements that it is a mistake to be in the MIDDLE EAST, by stating that SAUDI ARABIA is a very good ally and has agreed to pay the U.S. for everything U.S. doing.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA being ranked as the world’s top ease of doing business improver by the World Bank Group’s Doing Business 2020 Report is not surprising, as it is important to note that the report indicates that SAUDI ARABIA has jumped 72 global positions in “Trading Across Borders”, an indicator which compares the time and cost of exporting and importing goods. Thus, in my opinion, critical reforms have facilitated SAUDI ARABIA’s drive to be positioned as one of the world’s most dynamic logistics hubs. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s most consistent foreign policy of defending SAUDI ARABIA has helped elevate SAUDI ARABIA on the international stage, as when U.S. President Donald Trump is not axing legislation he deems hostile to SAUDI ARABIAN concerns, he is speaking on SAUDI ARABIA’s behalf. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump who places a high priority on the U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN relationship, while seeing SAUDI ARABIA as an eager customer for U.S. arms, and a useful proxy in U.S. confrontations with IRAN, made SAUDI ARABIA first official foreign destination of his presidency, where he helped unveil a counterterrorism center run by SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has built up an alliance of personal and political contacts with prominent SAUDI ARABIAN royals and, in particular, Crown Prince MBS. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump decided some time ago that he would be in SAUDI ARABIA’s corner, such that there is not any circumstance under which he would feel the need to rethink that strategy.

In regards to this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA was forced to ban UMRAH visas including the temporary suspension of the entry of Gulf nationals to the holy sites of MAKKAH and MEDINA while those who have been in SAUDI ARABIA for 14 consecutive days, without showing signs of coronavirus infection, and who wish to perform UMRAH or visit the Prophet’s Mosque, may continue to do so. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA may not have recorded any cases of the new coronavirus so far, such that Saudi Arabia’s trade activity has not been impacted and is going on as usual, but SAUDI ARABIA has prepared 25 hospitals to handle any coronavirus cases that might be detected in SAUDI ARABIA, as part of precautionary measures.

Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.

In regards to HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to concede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. However, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that STC fighters now control port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their existence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.

Thus, in my opinion, this week’s advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels who took control of the city of AL-HAZM, the capital of AL-JAWF governorate, bordering SAUDI ARABIA by storming the city and seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA and UAE was not surprising. In my opinion, YEMENI ambassador to UNESCO, Muhammad Jumeh, hit the nail on the head when blaming AL-HAZM fall on military and political leaders staying outside of YEMEN and being engaged with side battles instead of defeating YEMEN’s Houthis “Coup D’État”. Furthermore, in my opinion, YEMEN’s Houthis capture of AL-HAZM could be a game-changer, as control of the capital of AL-JAWF could totally change the course of the war, as YEMEN’s Houthis have made an exceptional advance and are thus slowly changing the balance of the war in their favour. That is, AL-JAWF is the third YEMENI governorate adjacent to SAUDI ARABIA to be under the control of YEMEN’s Houthi forces along with the provinces of SAADA and HAJJAH, representing the slow but steady increase in the balance of war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis. Therefore, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE led coalition launching 25 air strikes on JAWF and MARIB literally overnight in a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of the war in favour of YEMEN’s Houthis.

However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will require de-escalation of tensions across MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can only arise if U.S and IRAN reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with IRAN does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major ARAB country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.

Thus, in my opinion, despite the atmosphere of fear and intimidation that the counter-revolutionary forces may have created with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the waves of protests sweeping across ALGERIA and SUDAN suggest that a second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING may very well be underway in the MIDDLE EAST, that bears a similar resemblance to the first wave witnessed in 2011. However, in my opinion, the second manifestation of the ARAB SPRING feels more peaceful in its approach and realistic in its aspirations, as everybody seems to have learned from their mistakes of the past, as everyone is now well aware of the dangers that the militarization of protests poses to the effectiveness of the movement, consisting of prolonged civil wars with significant human casualties and horrendous refugee crises. However, in my opinion, the same underlying motive that drove the first wave of the ARAB SPRING in 2010-2011 now drives the second, consisting of social, political and economic conditions deteriorating, while showing no signs of relief in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, instead of addressing this social and political collapse, many MIDDLE EASTERN countries choose to silence dissident voices that raise these concerns while not only limiting the freedom of speech, but also by now criminalizing the freedom to be silent. Thus, in my opinion, when the freedom to be silent is seen as a form of passive opposition, leading to intellectuals and journalists across the MIDDLE EAST being imprisoned and tortured for refusing to publicly and unconditionally support the existing regime in place, this is a sure sign of existing regimes fearing uprisings through dialogue and free thought within these dictatorial regimes.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, it was not surprising to see the hunt for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi reach a climactic conclusion as U.S. President Donald Trump declared that raid conducted by U.S. military in northwest SYRIA killed ISIS leader. Thus, in my opinion, by removing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi from battlefield, the U.S. has neutralized the threat from a man who was both ruthless and highly skilled in running an underground terrorist organization. Thus, with the killing of the world’s number one terrorist leader, the U.S. obviously struck a paralyzing blow to ISIS. Furthermore, in my opinion, details emerging of how Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi chose to blow up himself and three of his children in a tunnel, after U.S. special forces entered his heavily-fortified compound in SYRIA’s IDLIB province during the raid, illustrates ISIS trademark signature move of suicide before surrender. However, in my opinion, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s last months on the run, that were agitated and fearful of traitors, disguised as shepherd, hiding underground, but always dependent on shrinking circle of ISIS right hand men for protection, illustrates that even Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi realized that his days were numbered. In my opinion, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became a nervous wreck, pacing up and down and complaining about treason and infiltrations among his ISIS group, at least one year prior to his capture, as he moved from place to place in eastern SYRIA, as one ISIS stronghold after another fell to U.S. backed KURDISH forces, before heading to IDLIB sometime this spring.

In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as prime focus of discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. Therefore, I was not surprised to see IRAQI President Barham Salih focus on U.S. & IRANIAN tensions by clearly stating that war is the last thing the MIDDLE EAST needs, as the last war on terror against ISIS has not yet been completed.

Furthermore, in my opinion, MIDDLE EAST is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and threat of war between U.S. & IRAN, while certain that IRAQ would be caught in middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in background, as he has stated that one reason he wants to keep a base in IRAQ is to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN. That is, U.S. sees IRAN as real problem, although when U.S. President Donald Trump asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, he clearly stated no, as all he wants to do in IRAQ is monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wants to make sure that there are no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, announcement by RUSSIAN foreign ministry was not surprising that the situation was rapidly deteriorating such that IDLIB was almost under the full control of the HTS rebel group, previously linked to al-Qaeda, that should trigger a coordinated military effort between RUSSIA and TURKEY to stabilize the situation in IDLIB. In my opinion, as the last opposition stronghold, including extremist terrorist elements such as HTS, IDLIB is shaping up to be the site of a geopolitical showdown, including TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN while also risking that U.S. pulled into the conflict, as all of these powerful foreign militaries have opposing ambitions. In my opinion, for RUSSIA, who supports the existing AL-ASSAD regime, and TURKEY, who have backed the opposition seeking to overthrow the SYRIAN strongman, the conclusion in IDLIB is now stretched to the breaking point whereby it seems that both sides cannot remain, while nobody wants to relinquish any claims. However, RUSSIA appears to be running out of patience with TURKEY as HTS, the Sunni extremist faction that grew out of the al-Qaeda-linked Jab hat al-Nurse, has emerged as the dominant force in IDLIB. Obviously, President Bashar al-Assad cannot accept HTS controlling IDLIB’s economy, by extracting tolls and fees on border crossings and controlling traffic between IDLIB and TURKEY, while imposing its own interpretation of ISLAMIC law and imprisoning and torturing its opponents.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from front pages of major news publications, as escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases level of impunity for SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, RUSSIA and IRAN, that continue to enjoy impunity while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting have resulted in SAA unleashing powerful assaults across southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by terrorist HTS rebels, as SAA repeatedly fired several artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles towards HTS positions. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH forces have attempted to quell the violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight.

Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s sides. Hence, in my opinion, after offensives in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as HTS rebels refuse to concede defeat. Nonetheless, in my opinion, SAA and RUSSIA now once again seriously considering a new offensive in IDLIB, after exchanging perpetual fire with HTS rebels near demilitarized zone, as patience is wearing thin in northern HAMA, southern IDLIB and western ALEPPO after several ceasefire violations by HTS rebels. In my opinion, SAA has responded to ceasefire violations, but they have not yet launched any storming operation against HTS and their allies because they seem to be waiting to see if TURKEY will dismantle HTS, before the SAA military launches a new major military offensive to further weaken HTS rebels.

In regards to this week’s escalated SYRIA and TURKEY tensions in IDLIB as crowded camps, closed borders and cold weather raised fears of another humanitarian crisis, IDLIB appears to be heading in the direction of all out war with over 700,000 displaced civilians. In my opinion, fierce fighting in IDLIB has resulted in the largest mass displacement of civilians in the SYRIAN war to date; leaving hundreds of thousands of people camped out in tents on the TURKISH border in sub-zero conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, this week’s aid operation by the U.N. in IDLIB being overwhelmed was not surprising, as the number of people displaced by the SAA offensive continues to rise, with most of the 900,000 that have fled since December of 2019, consisting of women and children. Furthermore, in my opinion, UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, Mark Lowcock, hit the nail on the head when he warned that the biggest humanitarian horror story of the 21’st Century in IDLIB could only be avoided with a ceasefire, given that babies and small children were dying because of the cold, with people being forced to sleep outside in freezing temperatures, as camps were full.

Hence, in my opinion, at this stage three scenarios are still possible for IDLIB consisting of the FIRST and most favourable being for TURKEY & RUSSIA to agree to uphold the de-escalation zone agreement in IDLIB while ordering SAA forces to return to the positions they held before their latest offensive. Furthermore, this could be combined with a revival of the political process and resumption of meetings with the goal of drafting amendments to SYRIAN constitution agreed upon by current regime, opposition forces and international community. However, although TURKEY has tried to push for such a settlement by threatening military action if SAA forces did not pull back, the likelihood of this happening on the ground now seems unlikely, in light of recent SAA advances. The SECOND scenario would be TURKEY accepting new realities on ground and allowing SAA to control M4 & M5 highways, but using force to limit any further SAA advances. Furthermore, TURKEY could seek to establish a safe zone in IDLIB by setting up re-enforced defence positions along frontline and supplying Syrian opposition with heavy weapons, especially anti-aircraft missiles. In my opinion, it appears that TURKEY Ankara has already adopted this policy on the ground given that two SAA helicopters were downed in IDLIB with anti-aircraft weapons. The THIRD scenario and the one that Turkey wants to avoid is an escalation with RUSSIA, as the presence of anti-aircraft weapons on ground raises risk of RUSSIAN aircraft being shot down. Furthermore, the TURKISH military is likely to take precautions to avoid such a dangerous development, but given massive deployments on the ground, TURKEY is the closest it has been since 2015 to a direct confrontation with RUSSIAN forces.

IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In regards to escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, not surprising to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN presence in SYRIA, to prevent IRAN from gaining permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL, but also for other countries in region, such that IRAN should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from Golan Heights that should be welcomed as positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRAN fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. That is, in my opinion, recent sanctions that target IRAN sales of oil, IRAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN auto sector reflect U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through veins of majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, U.S. withdrawal from 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to negotiating table with U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, not surprising to see U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that U.S. developing new strategy for war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, new U.S. strategy would probably not involve U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that U.S. military only has right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets, if U.S. feels threatened. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. plan focuses on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing IRAN & SYRIA financially. That is, U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, in my opinion, IRAN heading in direction of weathering storm created by crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN, as IRAN strategy of maintaining status-quo arrangement until fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

In regards to statement by IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that IRAN would exceed enrichment levels set out under 2015 Nuclear Deal in response to failure by other parties to keep their promises, including providing IRAN with relief from U.S. imposed sanctions, not surprising to see IRAN essentially fighting fire with fire. In my opinion, 3.67% enrichment levels set in 2015 Nuclear Deal is only sufficient for commercial power generation, while far below more than 90% level required for nuclear warhead, such that still room for further negotiations before IRAN hits 90%. It is important to note that the enrichment maximum set in 2015 Nuclear Deal is sufficient for commercial power generation, but far below more than 90% level required for a nuclear warhead. In my opinion, it is not surprising that IRAN enriched uranium to 4.5%, representing enough enrichment for IRAN to power its peaceful, already-active BUSHEHR nuclear reactor, but far short of the 90% threshold for weapons-grade uranium. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN does not currently represent a significant risk for enriching uranium to 90%, as this is an enormous technical challenge that requires building and operating very advanced centrifuges. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN will likely once again be subject to international attempts to sabotage any significant escalation of IRANIAN nuclear efforts, with computer viruses like STUXNET that previously successfully attacked IRANIAN centrifuges.

In my opinion, decision by IRAN to offer deal to U.S. in which IRAN would formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program, in exchange for permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions, not surprising. However, in my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump, demanding that IRAN make a range of sweeping concessions, including cessation of uranium enrichment and support of proxies and allies in the region, obviously rejected offer made by IRAN foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on a visit to NEW YORK. Hence, I believe that in IRAN’s best interests to bring back same IRANIAN Team to renegotiate 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal with new U.S. Administration because they were exceptional in skills last time, while they will now be matched in skills, to renegotiate the sticking points of an end to IRAN’s ballistic missile program and an end to IRAN’s interference in MIDDLE EAST. Therefore, only time will tell where gridlock will lead, as U.S. President, Donald Trump will likely abstain from striking IRAN knowing full well that Jimmy Carter’s attempt for second term as President was destroyed by IRAN hostage crisis in 1980, that essentially unseated an American President. However, in my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump seems to be first U.S. President since 1980, who is willing to allow IRAN to flourish, to extent IRAN focuses on promoting business and prosperity in MIDDLE EAST, as opposed to conflicts and further civil wars.

Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions and maximum pressure campaign are forcing IRAN to focus on its own problems, as for years, IRAN was one of chief enablers and financiers of NORTH KOREAN nuclear and ballistic threat. However, in my opinion, with 50% inflation and food prices that have risen 85%, IRAN does not have excess cash IRAN once had to engage in disruption. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. has made right moves with regards to IRAN but what IRAN will do next will be absolutely critical, as imminent threat comes from IRAN Defense Ministry that warned that any ISRAELI involvement in U.S. led naval operation into Strait of Hormuz, would have disastrous consequences for MIDDLE EAST. Nonetheless, in my opinion, IRAN President Hassan Rouhani kept door open to diplomacy, by backing EUROPEAN efforts to salvage 2015 Nuclear Deal. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN agreed to a four-point plan for talks with U.S. during U.N. General Assembly because FRANCE, who is considered by IRAN to be a neutral party, brokered the plan. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani confirm that the four-point program stipulated that IRAN should not seek nuclear weapons, should abide by regional peace, help to contribute to peace, and, in exchange, the U.S. would lift all sanctions against IRAN and allow IRANIAN exports immediately, as the lifting of sanctions immediately forms the backbone of the plan. Unfortunately, in my opinion, IRAN further distanced itself from 2015 Nuclear Deal, as IRAN stepped up its activity, at its underground FORDOW nuclear plant, a move that FRANCE stated clearly demonstrated for first time, that IRAN explicitly planned to quit a deal with world powers that curbed its disputed nuclear work.

In my opinion, obvious that IRAN operates in grey zone as concerns decisions towards U.S., as IRAN takes decisions between peace and open military conflict, by denying use of force to minimize consequences and future escalations. Thus, in my opinion, given that IRAN has been able to survive U.S. imposed sanctions that have now reached a climax, with limited possibilities for additional future sanctions, the U.S. should contest IRAN in gray zone. That is, in my opinion, to restore deterrence while minimizing risks of escalations, U.S. should consider using limited U.S. military actions that fly under radar screen like IRAN, but which IRAN still recognizes as executed by U.S. In my opinion, U.S. should adopt a similar military policy like IRAN to operate in grey zone with covert military strikes on strategic assets, without accepting any formal responsibilities, in order to minimize risk of a full blown military conflict. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN and RUSSIA obviously condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain a military presence near oil fields in northeastern SYRIA, with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov stating that any exploitation of oil resources by the U.S. would be deemed illegal. In my opinion, the U.S. obviously stated that the return of U.S. forces to SYRIA, after their transfer to IRAQ, was under the pretext of protecting oil deposits from ISIS.

However, in my opinion, U.S. imposed sanctions on additional senior IRANIAN officials for human rights abuses, as U.S. President Donald Trump increased its maximum pressure campaign on IRAN by imposing sanctions on judges, was not surprising. In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was forced to denounce the recent violent crackdown by IRANIAN authorities against widespread protests, as the U.S. targeted two top IRANIAN judges with penalties, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assailed IRANIAN officials for hypocrisy, by depriving citizens, particularly ethnic and religious minorities of their constitutional rights. However, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani warning that his nuclear experts are testing advanced centrifuges while claiming that the IRANIAN economy is rebounding despite crippling U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, rising tensions between IRAN and U.S. are not a signal that diplomacy will fail but rather represent a warning that negotiations are a must and soon.

In my opinion, protests in IRAN came at delicate time, in tense standoff, between the U.S. and IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, with IRANIAN elections approaching, and without any U.S. agreement to desist from U.S. imposed sanctions, the current IRANIAN government might well lose all of its influence, in favour of far more confrontational hard-liners. Thus, in my opinion, it appears that U.S. and IRAN have drawn diametrically opposed interpretations of upheaval’s causes and consequences, rendering any effort at de-escalation unlikely. Hence, in my opinion, the unrest, triggered by an abrupt hike in fuel prices, quickly evolved into a violent nationwide revolt against ruling IRANIAN order. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump saw austerity measure as a direct result of its maximum pressure policy, and cried success, as in U.S. minds, the stifling impact of U.S. imposed sanctions had prompted public ire, and could soon persuade IRAN’s leaders to alter their domestic and foreign policies in order to retain power.

However, in my opinion, IRAN’s rulers believe that they crushed an American plot when they crushed the unrest quickly and decisively, and that by doing that, they rendered U.S. President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign far less effective. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN leadership is also confident that it has demonstrated its determination to defeat any challenge to its hold on power, by having killed more than 300 protesters and completely shutting down the Internet for more than a week. In addition, in my opinion, recent attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure in SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, which the U.S. and its allies have attributed to IRAN, is treated in IRAN as a demonstration of their power at home and throughout the region. Thus, in my opinion, if U.S. President Donald Trump is interested in a deal with IRAN, now is the optimum time, as there is no immediate prospect of a change in IRAN’s government structure, and further instability in IRAN will only render deal-making nearly impossible. Thus, in my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani’s government remains U.S. President Donald Trump’s best bet, and there is only a small window before maximum pressure completely sidelines any possibilities for civilized negotiations and diplomatic resolutions.

In regards airstrikes that hit Baghdad International Airport, whereby IRANIAN PMF group leaders were killed by U.S. including Senior General, Qassem Soleimani; Deputy Commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis; and Protocol Officer and Head of Public Relations, Mohammed Reza al-Jaberi, in my opinion, tensions are obviously at an all time high in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump took responsibility for the assassination on the basis that the U.S. military took decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel by killing Senior General, Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump justified U.S. actions on the basis that Senior General, Qassem Soleimani killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more while blaming Senior General Qassem Soleimani for being directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people. However, in my opinion, the U.S. was now forced to send 3,000 additional troops to the MIDDLE EAST amid rising tensions in the region following this assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. In my opinion, IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif obviously condemned the assassination by stating that the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism. Thus, in my opinion, the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital point for American destroyers and warships, now represent 35 vital U.S. targets in the region for IRAN as well as TEL AVIV, ISRAEL.

However, in my opinion, IRAN furor became evident as an IRANIAN legislator offered a US$ 3 million reward to anyone who kills U.S. President Donald Trump to avenge the assassination of Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Obviously, in my opinion, the U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood dismissed the reward as ridiculous on the basis that it demonstrated the terrorist underpinnings of IRAN’s government. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh, the little-known member of IRANIAN parliament, offered the US$ 3 million bounty on behalf of the people of KERMAN, based on sentimental attachments as the hometown and final resting place of the revered Senior General Qassem Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, Ahmad Hamzeh also stated that IRAN should start producing nuclear weapons and delivery systems to protect it, in order to capitalize on the anti-American sentiment currently flogging the mass IRANIAN populace. In addition, Ahmad Hamzeh capitalized on IRANIAN resentment towards the Americans by stating that if IRAN had nuclear weapons today IRAN would be protected from threats, such that IRAN should put the production of long-range missiles capable of carrying unconventional warheads on its military agenda, as the natural right of IRAN to protect itself from the U.S. Thus, in my opinion, tensions have steadily escalated between IRAN and the U.S. with a 2015 Nuclear Deal standoff erupting into tit-for-tat military attacks with the killing of Senior General Qassem Soleimani and IRAN’s missile barrage on a base in IRAQ that housed American forces albeit the attack did not cause any U.S. casualties.

In regards to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 1,500 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 65 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 65 people in Iran, with over 1,500 confirmed cases.

In regards to this week’s adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dying after contracting the coronavirus amid the latest in a string of IRANIAN officials to have died after contracting the virus, IRAN was working diligently to contain the further propagation of the virus. In my opinion, with over 65 people killed and over 1,500 cases now confirmed, Iran has the most coronavirus cases in the MIDDLE EAST, and the most deaths outside of CHINA, where the virus originated. Thus, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRAN’s parliament has been suspended until further notice amid the outbreak, universities and schools nationwide have been closed and all public gatherings, including Friday prayers, have been cancelled to help curb the spread of the disease. Thus, in my opinion, after initially downplaying the coronavirus, IRANIAN authorities now have plans to potentially mobilize over 300,000 soldiers and volunteers to confront the virus. Therefore, in my opinion, Iran has also deployed drones to disinfect streets and mobilized tens of thousands of teams to conduct door-to-door coronavirus checks across IRAN, as an indication of the scale of the epidemic in IRAN, where it has killed more people than anywhere else in the world outside of China, including an IRANIAN government official.

Thus, in my opinion, as Iran becomes a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Furthermore, in my opinion, with at least seven high-ranking IRANIAN officials including deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi, Vice-President Masoumeh Ebtekar and five other Members Of Parliament (MP) having tested positive for the virus, IRANIAN are on high alert as stress levels are now reaching boiling points. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Furthermore, in my opinion, infections in neighbouring countries, and even in far away nations such as U.S., CANADA, AUSTRALIA, NORWAY and NEW ZEALAND, have been traced to IRAN. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several countries including OMAN, JORDAN, KUWAIT, IRAQ and SAUDI ARABIA have suspended flights to IRAN after cases there were linked to IRAN, while many neighbouring countries have completely closed their borders with IRAN.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 393” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY openly declared war against SYRIAN government of President Bashar al-Assad, after suffering worst military losses in single attack of war, with at least 36 TURKISH soldiers killed & over 30 wounded in SYRIAN & RUSSIAN air & artillery strikes in IDLIB, while advances by YEMENI Houthi rebels, who took control of city of AL-HAZM, bordering SAUDI ARABIA, by storming city & seizing it after battles with government forces backed by SAUDI ARABIA & UAE, due to military & political leaders staying outside of YEMEN, & being engaged with side battles, instead of Coup D’État, while SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspended entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or visiting Prophet’s mosque in MEDINA & MAKKAH over fears of deadly coronavirus, COVID-19, as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST at all time high, while IRAN has become hotbed for COVID-19, outside of CHINA, with neighbours nervous after virus so far killed over 65 people in IRAN, with over 1,500 confirmed cases, as authorities around world scramble to expand travel restrictions, to stem spread of disease, with at least seven high-ranking IRANIAN officials including Deputy Health Minister, Vice-President & five other Members Of Parliament testing positive for COVID-19, while one adviser to IRAN Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died after contracting COVID-19, as IRAN on high alert, as stress levels now reaching boiling points, with IRAN’s fatality rate at 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in CHINA & 1.5% elsewhere, such that appears that COVID-19 came unseen & undetected into IRAN.