ivancacpa

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 267” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% while IRAQ, TURKEY and IRAN all said NO reflecting the new trend in the geopolitical landscape whereby the opposition to my opposition is my ally as birds of a feather must flock together while those with different birds’ eye views are best left behind in the shadows as delusional and absurd while the focus becomes on what have you done for me lately such that if you share my current opinions and visions, history becomes irrelevant and only shared objectives for the future become relevant.

During the week ending on Sunday, October 8, 2017,  TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH police arrested a local employee of the U.S. consulate in TURKEY over alleged links to the movement of U.S. based Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, that the TURKISH government accuses of masterminding last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. The U.S., whose ties with TURKEY have grown increasingly strained, said the arrest was without merit as the employee was charged with espionage and attempting to overthrow the constitutional order and TURKISH government. As the rift between TURKEY and the U.S. grows, ties between TURKEY and IRAN seem to be solidifying as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in IRAN to meet IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani. Contemporaneously, IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani stated that IRAN and TURKEY, two friendly MUSLIM states are the centerline of regional stability and that the high level meeting is part of a historic and growing relationship between IRAN and TURKEY. It is important to note the salient points of the discussions between TURKEY and IRAN whereby both parties agree that instability in the Middle East is the fault of ethnic and sectarian separatism and plans of outsiders. Furthermore, IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani highlighted that the fight against terror was against ISIS, AL-NUSRA and the KURDISH PKK as a clear indication that IRAN wants TURKEY to know that IRAN shares TURKEY’s views. In addition, IRAN agreed with TURKEY on the need to respect the borders of IRAQ and SYRIA and not to accept any geographical changes in reference to the recent KURDISTAN region’s independence referendum resulting in the goal to secede from IRAQ. Of particular note, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the KURDISTAN referendum was an attempt by the U.S. to create a second Israel in the region. Lastly, TURKEY and IRAN want to boost trade to $30 billion a year that would increase TURKEY’s import of natural gas among other items from IRAN.

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by U.S. and coalition military forces who continued to attack ISIS across several fronts in IRAQ. Namely, IRAQ’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the IRAQI military has retaken HAWIJA, the main town in one of the last two enclaves of ISIS in the country although a few villages east of the town of HAWIJA are believed to still be under ISIS control. However, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS.

Meanwhile, KURDISH President Masoud Barzani said that the KURDS are ready to have serious dialogue with the IRAQI government on the outcome of the yes win with the objective of living together as two good neighbours. Therefore, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has now clearly stated that the IRAQI government clearly wants the KURDISTAN government to annul the results of the KURDISH referendum or face punitive sanctions, international isolation and possible military intervention. Furthermore, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has now banned direct international flights to the region and called for a joint administration in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK and other disputed areas that have been controlled by the KURDS since 2014 but have been claimed by both IRAQI and KURDISTAN governments. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi reiterated that IRAQ does not want an armed confrontation nor clashes but that the federal authority must prevail such that nobody can infringe on the federal authority. Furthermore, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called on KURDISH Peshmerga forces to remain an integral part of the IRAQI forces under the authority of the federal authorities to guarantee the security of citizens so that together KURDISH referendum zones can be rebuilt. Meanwhile, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron stated that FRANCE wanted stability in IRAQ and thus called for KURDISH rights to be recognised in the framework of the constitution while offering FRANCE’s services as mediator between the IRAQI and KURDISH governments.

Moving on to SYRIA,  tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH focused their attention on ISIS in DEIR AL-ZOR as they launched an offensive on SA’ALO village in the eastern countryside of DEIR AL-ZOR. Meanwhile, RUSSIAN warplanes carried out dozens of air strikes on the cities of MAYADIN and BULEEL in DEIR AL-ZOR and their outskirts leaving dozens of civilian casualties. It is important to note that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made remarkable progress in the DEIR AL-ZOR region over the last three weeks liberating a significant portion of the province that was previously occupied by ISIS. Most recently, SAA units have made their way across several kilometers of territory south of the provincial capital of DEIR AL-ZOR putting them within striking distance of AL-MAYADEEN, ISIS’s new de facto capital in SYRIA. According to the latest SYRIAN military reports, the SAA is only 6 km away from AL-MAYADEEN marking the first time in years that the SYRIAN government forces have had any presence around this DEIR AL-ZOR area.

On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA.  Meanwhile, with the battle drawing closer to the city center, the distance to the nearest medical facilities are growing longer, making its increasingly difficult to keep injured fighters and civilians alive as hundreds of civilians have been killed and many more wounded since the U.S. backed KURDISH and ARAB fighters of the SDF broke into RAQQA city in June.

In my opinion, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY arrested a local employee of the U.S. consulate in TURKEY over alleged links to the movement of U.S. based Turkish cleric, Fethullah Gulen, that the TURKISH government accuses of masterminding last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In my opinion, the charges seem over exaggerated, as it is highly unlikely that a U.S. consulate member would enter into espionage and attempt to overthrow the constitutional order and TURKISH government. However, in my opinion, TURKEY is furious with the U.S. government for refusing to extradite Fethullah Gulen to TURKEY to be tried for last year’s failed “Coup D’État” although TURKEY considers him the mastermind of the failed “Coup D’État” attempt. In my opinion, Fethullah Gulen is entitled to continue to live in a private compound in Pennsylvania until proven guilty by a court of law. Given that Fethullah Gulen has repeatedly denied any involvement in the uprising that resulted in at least 270 deaths during the failed “Coup D’État” he cannot be extradited until a U.S. court gives him a fair trial to either confirm or dispel TURKISH allegations. In my opinion, the fundamental principal behind a civil democracy is the notion of innocent until proven guilty as if the U.S. sets the precedent that one can be found guilty on mere rumours and assumptions, the entire justice system of the U.S. would likely collapse.

In regards to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arriving in IRAN to meet IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani who stated that IRAN and TURKEY, two friendly MUSLIM states are the centerline of regional stability such that the high level meeting is part of a historic and growing relationship between IRAN and TURKEY, this perfectly reflects the new trend in the geopolitical landscape whereby the opposition to my opposition is my ally as birds of a feather must flock together while those with different birds’ eye views are best left behind in the shadows as delusional and absurd. In regards to the salient points of discussions whereby both IRAN and TURKEY agree that instability in the Middle East is the fault of ethnic and sectarian separatism and plans of outsiders while the borders of IRAQ and SYRIA need to remain intact regardless of the recent KURDISTAN region’s independence referendum resulting in the goal to secede from IRAQ, the discussions obviously demonstrate that TURKEY and IRAN now see eye to eye on macro economic needs such that it is inevitable that TURKEY and IRAN will do everything in their power to crush the KURDISH independence dreams. In my opinion, this perfectly reflects the new geopolitical realities of my allegiances are driven by what have you done for me lately such that if you share my current opinions and visions, history becomes irrelevant and only shared objectives for the future become relevant. In regards to IRAN’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stating that the KURDISTAN referendum was an attempt by the U.S. to create a second ISRAEL in the region, this is clearly an opinion as opposed to fact given that the KURDS are a people of Indo-European origin. In particular, the KURDS speak an IRANIAN language known as KURDISH and comprise the majority of the population of the region whereby most KURDS are MUSLIM while most of the JEWS have already immigrated to ISRAEL. In regards to TURKEY and IRAN wanting to boost trade to $30 billion a year that would increase TURKEY’s import of natural gas among other items from IRAN, this also reflects the new geopolitical landscape whereby if you share my opinions and views, there will be economic benefits to encourage shared common allures while for those with opposing opinions and views will only be given leftover domestic manure.

Moving on to IRAQ,  in my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

In my opinion, the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support definitely will provide major bargaining power for future negotiations with the IRAQI government as for me this is a clear sign that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that there will definitely be major changes ahead in the not too distant horizon. However, the tone from the IRAQI government this week appears to be quite hardline in its stance that the KURDS cannot unilaterally choose to separate from the IRAQI federation. In my opinion, the IRAQI governments actions this week whereby Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has now clearly stated that the IRAQI government clearly wants the KURDISTAN government to annul the results of the KURDISH referendum or face punitive sanctions, international isolation and possible military intervention sends a clear message to the KURDISH people that their secession dreams will not come without a fight. Furthermore, with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has now banning all direct international flights to the region and calling for a joint administration in the oil-rich city of KIRKUK and other disputed areas that have been controlled by the KURDS since 2014 but that have been claimed by both IRAQI and KURDISTAN governments, the IRAQI government has clearly sent the message that the borders of the KURDISTAN region will be disputed such that the KURDS cannot dray the borders of KURDISTAN on their own. On a positive note, the fact that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi reiterated that IRAQ does not want an armed confrontation nor clashes indicates that the dispute can be resolved via negotiations albeit that in my opinion, the offer by FRANCE to function as a mediator to the conflict should be accepted as I do not believe that the KURDISH and IRAQI governments can negotiate any deal on their own. Lastly, in my opinion, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s statement that the federal authority must prevail such that nobody can infringe on the federal authority is delusional as the KURDISH people have the right to pursue a separatist agenda to the extent the KURDS respect due legal process as outlined by the IRAQI constitution. However, in my opinion the underlying issue behind the KURDISH referendum is that it was held in a cloud of questionable legality given that the IRAQI government from the outset argued that it was unconstitutional and that the KURDISH region could not vote on the disputed regions unilaterally. Therefore, in my opinion, KURDISTAN will see a long drawn out battle for its secession dreams from IRAQ albeit the reality that it is best for both the KURDISH and IRAQI governments to negotiate some sort of deal before contemplating another long and drawn out civil war as enough blood has already been shed in IRAQ.

Moving on to SYRIA,  the strikes on ISIS this week around DEIR AL-ZOR were perfectly timed as ISIS has been losing momentum with recent losses in neighbouring IRAQ and SYRIA while also being hit hard elsewhere in SYRIA by SDF forces. In my opinion, for ISIS, losing AL-MAYADEEN might be a bigger loss than their imminent defeat in RAQQA City as AL-MAYADEEN is located along the main road to ISIS’s most important IRAQI crossing at ALBUKAMAL. Furthermore, ALBUKAMAL is located directly west of the IRAQI city of AL-QA’IM that is another ISIS stronghold in the AL-ANBAR region that ISIS is desperately attempting to hold. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally.

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind. In regards to the RUSSIANS claiming that RAQQA is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as previously seen in MOSUL, IRAQ caused by a lack of effective effort to deliver humanitarian aid, to create corridors for the evacuation of the civilian population and recurring mistakes by the U.S. Air Force including airstrikes targeting civilian sites, this in my opinion is primarily attributable to the ISIS guerrilla warfare techniques of intentionally hiding behind civilians as human shields. In regards to the mounting human casualties, the task of keeping people alive long enough for them to reach proper hospitals has become increasingly difficult that is a by-product of this brutal civil war that nobody including the SDF can control. In my opinion, as the battlefronts have drawn deep into the heart of RAQQA and checkpoints along poorly maintained roads have multiplied, the trip has doubled in length to the nearest TAL ABYAD hospital such that these long travel times mean that patients are often arriving dead or close to death which is a wake-up call for everyone in the region that the war and bloodshed must ultimately come to an end.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 267” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% while IRAQ, TURKEY and IRAN all said NO reflecting the new trend in the geopolitical landscape whereby the opposition to my opposition is my ally as birds of a feather must flock together while those with different birds’ eye views are best left behind in the shadows as delusional and absurd while the focus becomes on what have you done for me lately such that if you share my current opinions and visions, history becomes irrelevant and only shared objectives for the future become relevant.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 266” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% who purport that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second class trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that major changes definitely lie in store.

TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH Prime Minister Binali Yildirim stated that TURKEY’s military forces would not hesitate to give a strong response to any TURKISH security threat on the border with IRAQ after Monday’s referendum on independence of IRAQ’s semi-autonomous KURDISTAN region. Furthermore, TURKEY reiterated its stance that no matter how you look at it, this referendum will not bring tranquility, brotherhood and peace to the region such that TURKEY deems the referendum as null and void. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reinforced TURKEYS position that just as TURKEY did not allow the fire which burned in SYRIA to spread to TURKEY, so too any attempted instigation of unrest by the KURDS in IRAQ will be stopped immediately in their tracks. Meanwhile, TURKEY stated that TURKEY has stopped training KURDISH Peshmerga forces in northern IRAQ, as part of the KURDISH campaign against the ISIS terrorist group, as a direct response to the KURDISH referendum on independence. Contemporaneously, KURDISH officials said that the KURDISH referendum on independence from IRAQ was approved by more than 92% of the voters. Hendrin Mohammed, the head of the KURDISH region’s election commission, announced the official results at a press conference in ERBIL, IRAQ saying that the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%. Furthermore, Hendrin Mohammed stated that the vote counting was complete and that the results would be considered final once the KURDISH region’s department of justice certified the results.

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that the IRAQI army continues to withstand the barrage of ISIS counter strikes as was demonstrated this week by U.S. and coalition military forces who continued to attack ISIS across several fronts in IRAQ. First, around HUWIJAH, two strikes hit two ISIS military tactical units and destroyed two staging areas, a command center headquarters and a weapons cache while two additional strikes destroyed 51 ISIS vehicles and five vehicles carrying bombs. Second, around FALLUJAH, a strike hit an ISIS military tactical unit. Third, around QAIM, a strike destroyed an ISIS staging area. Fourth, around RAWAH, a strike destroyed two ISIS facilities producing vehicles carrying bombs. However, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS.

Meanwhile, RUSSIA, the only major power that did not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence that was held on September 25 has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to separate from IRAQ subsequent to the September 25 referendum on independence. However, the KURDS consider the September 25 referendum victory as the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. However, after the votes were tallied and the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, Iraq’s top SHIITE cleric out right rejected the outcome of KURDISTAN’s independence vote despite the overwhelming 92% voting in favour of separating from IRAQ. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that KURDS must return to the constitutional path arguing that it is in the best interests of all IRAQIS including the KURDS to go back to the constitutional path to solve the issues between the central IRAQI government and the KURDISH region’s government. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi subsequently released a statement expressing his agreement with the position of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. However, the KURDISTAN government stated that they were pushed to the stage of an independence referendum after the IRAQI government violated at least one third of IRAQIS constitution including Article 140 that concerns the fate of the disputed KURDISTAN areas such as the oil-rich and multi-ethnic KIRKUK province. Therefore, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called on IRAQI authorities to respect KURDISTAN’s rights per the constitution such that all decisions and steps by the IRAQI government take into consideration the preservation of the constitutional rights of KURDISH brothers. Although KURDISH officials, including President Masoud Barzani, have complained that regional and international powers and religious leaders have failed to condemn violations of the IRAQI constitution, it seems that the complaints previously fell upon deaf ears. Nonetheless, the IRAQI government considers KURDISTAN’s referendum as unconstitutional such that the IRAQI government has asked the KURDISH government to cancel its outcome in order to satisfy a precondition for talks on outstanding issues between the two governments. Meanwhile, KURDISH President Masoud Barzani said that the KURDS are ready to have serious dialogue with the IRAQI government on the outcome of the yes win with the objective of living together as two good neighbours.

Tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR. LEBANESE President Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s problem. Ironically, the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the SYRIAN desert for several weeks finally reached DEIR AL-ZOR after the U.S. led coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing so. Thus, the agreement ended ISIS’s presence on the LEBANESE border after three years in the BEKAA VALLEY of LEBANON. Meanwhile, LEBANON still has to deal with the huge refugee crisis created by ISIS in SYRIA whereby most recent estimates indicate that over 1.5 million Syrians have been registered as refugees since 2016. Although the Lebanese government has maintained an open door policy towards SYRIAN refugees, no international laws exist which Lebanon must follow in dealing with the refugees. Therefore, the SYRIAN refugees who are capable of working have been forced to compete with the poor of LEBANON for the country’s lowest paying jobs to get work and make money that has resulted in damage to Lebanon’s economic infrastructure. Furthermore, the children of Syrian refugees must attend schools that are already crowded with Lebanese children.

On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA. Meanwhile, according to the RUSSIANS, repeated targeting mistakes of the U.S. led coalition in RAQQA have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure in RAQQA while a lack of humanitarian aid has led to a human catastrophe. According to Oleg Syromolotov who supervises counterterrorism cooperation with other nations in SYRIA, RAQQA is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as previously seen in MOSUL, IRAQ caused by a lack of effective effort to deliver humanitarian aid and to create corridors for the evacuation of the civilian population in addition to recurring mistakes by the U.S. Air Force including airstrikes targeting civilian sites.

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY reiterated its stance that no matter how you look at it, the KURDISH referendum on independence will not bring tranquility, brotherhood and peace to the region such that TURKEY deems the referendum as null and void. In my opinion, given that the referendum passed with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, the free will of the KURDISH people in IRAQ cannot be ignored as they have at least earned the right to sit down with the IRAQI government to see if there is any potential for the KURDISH region to remain an autonomous region within some sort of new IRAQI federation. However, in my opinion, the results speak for themselves that the KURDISH region in IRAQ cannot continue under the status quo of the IRAQI regime but there will need to be significant changes to satisfy the KURDISH dreams. First and foremost, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to see if they can negotiate some sort of loose IRAQI federation with the KURDS who feel that they have not been properly represented in IRAQ but to the contrary feel that the KURDS have been treated like second class citizens in IRAQ. In my opinion, the results of the KURDISH referendum on independence has clearly sent the message to the IRAQI government that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that there will definitely be major changes ahead in the not too distant horizon. In my opinion, the SYRIAN KURDS will likely follow in the footsteps of the IRAQI KURDS once the dust settles in SYRIA as the KURDS have never hidden their goal of uniting historical KURDISH areas of Syria known as ROJAVA, stretching from AFRIN to the TIGRIS river into one land mass. In my opinion, Turkey does not have the right to put an end to the KURDISH dreams to control their beloved KURDISTAN in IRAQ and ROJAVA in SYRIA as the KURDS gave their blood for this land in their battles against ISIS such that it is up to the KURDS to decide their future within both IRAQ and SYRIA including the choice to remain as autonomous regions within loose federations in both IRAQ and SYRIA.

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations.

In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that did not call on IRAQI KURDS to cancel the referendum on independence on September 25, 2017 as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN that all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because of fear of an IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces, who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS, seem to both be open to pursue further dialogue as opposed to war. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. Therefore, in my opinion, the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support definitely will provide major bargaining power for future negotiations with the IRAQI government as for me this is a clear sign that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that there will definitely be major changes ahead in the not too distant horizon.

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind. In regards to the RUSSIANS claiming that RAQQA is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as previously seen in MOSUL, IRAQ caused by a lack of effective effort to deliver humanitarian aid, to create corridors for the evacuation of the civilian population and recurring mistakes by the U.S. Air Force including airstrikes targeting civilian sites, this in my opinion is primarily attributable to the ISIS guerrilla warfare techniques of intentionally hiding behind civilians as human shields. In my opinion, the RUSSIAN perspective is clearly ANTI-AMERICAN as from the RUSSIANS point-of-view, RAQQA is an absurd situation in which a foreign U.S. led military force is present on SYRIAN territory illegally and without consent from the government of SYRIA while the U.S. led military force is imposing geographic boundaries for the SYRIAN Army itself which is fighting to free its own SYRIAN country from terrorists. Therefore, the RUSSIAN perspective that the U.S. led military force is doing a terrible job in RAQQA is not surprising but in my opinion, the U.S. led coalition is fighting an ISIS organization that follows no international conventions nor rules such that collateral damage is inevitable as the only alternative would have been to leave ISIS untouched in RAQQA.

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 266” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace as IRAQI KURDISH referendum resulted in YES win with 92.73% support from the turnout of 72% who purport that the KURDS will no longer accept being treated like second class trailer park trash pieces of shit of dirty dogs of dirty whores such that major changes definitely lie in store.

During the week ending on Sunday, September 24, 2017, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at schools across TURKEY this academic year. Of particular note is that children will find the introduction to the theory of evolution removed from their high school biology textbooks. In addition, the time dedicated to teaching the secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has been greatly reduced and public schools will now have to teach the concept of JIHAD that the TURKISH government says is to counter the use of religion to justify violence although this decision has received widespread opposition from secularists. The TURKISH government obviously has an agenda for education because affecting the minds of TURKISH youth is of the utmost importance to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan such that the changes to the curriculum are ideological as opposed to scientific or academic in nature. Meanwhile, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says U.S. President Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S. legal action targeting 19 TURKISH security officials who were involved in clashes with peaceful protesters in the U.S. this year while the U.S. denied the TURKISH claim. In an interview with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to a translator, U.S. President Donald Trump called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and said that he was sorry and told President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he was going to follow up on this issue when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes to the United States within the framework of an official visit.
 

On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. It is important to note that the progress of IRAQI forces were slowed down by dozens of booby-traps which have become the signature of ISIS militants desperation to thwart the advances by IRAQI forces. It is important to note that ANA, located 90 km from the SYRIAN border is one of three IRAQI towns in the EUPHRATES river valley still held by ISIS. Therefore, after retaking ANA, IRAQI forces will target RAWA, 12 km to the north followed by AL-QAIM that is the last IRAQI town before the border with SYRIA.

Meanwhile, RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a referendum on independence next week has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year. However, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence which the KURDS consider the culmination of decades of struggle for a KURDISH state of their own although the IRAQI government has clearly stated that the referendum is in violation of the IRAQI constitution. Although the U.S. issued a statement calling the planned referendum provocative and destabilizing because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory, RUSSIA did not issue any such call to cancel the vote. Rather, RUSSIAN state oil giant ROSNEFT announced its latest investment to help IRAQI KURDISTAN develop its natural gas industry for domestic supplies and eventual export worth more than $1 billion although the full value of the deal was not officially disclosed.
 

Moving on to SYRIA, fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of RAQQA that have reached their final stages with the opening by the SDF forces of a new front against ISIS on the northern edge of RAQQA.
 

Moving on to TURKEY, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY introduced a new curriculum at schools across TURKEY this academic year whereby the theory of evolution has been removed and the secular ideals of TURKEY’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has been greatly reduced in public schools. In my opinion, this shift lead by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to reinforce the true ISLAMIC religion in TURKEY’s education system and to shift away from attitudes, activities or other things that have no religious or spiritual basis. It is important to note that according to the latest census in 2016, ISLAM was the major religion in TURKEY comprising 82% of the total population, followed by unaffiliated people with 13% and Christianity with 2%. Therefore, in my opinion to reinforce ISLAM which does apply to the vast majority of the population in TURKEY wil only reinforce strong core values, morals, principals and ethics such that to the extent the rights of minorities are not infringed upon by granting such children an opt-out option, I see these changes as beneficial to developing the honesty, integrity and respect of the TURKISH children. In regards to the manipulation of history and avoiding evolution, TURKISH children still have access to the Intranet such that if these topics of are interest, they will have the opportunity to use GOOGLE to note that evolution by natural selection is a process demonstrated by the observation that more offspring are produced than can possibly survive. Thus, in my opinion, this never ending debate over exclusion of the theory of evolution from the education curriculum is more politically driven than substance driven as can be seen from the definition above whereby in actuality the theory of evolution is an opinion that those who feel is contrary to ISLAM can simply ignore with a giant yawn as a sign of an excessive bore. However, this debate over the theory of evolution is an example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby overly educated technocrats enter into a never ending theoretical debate when in actuality everything commenced from a stable state such that the focus should be on the elimination of the evolution of hate in order to educate TURKISH offspring on the need to tolerate.

In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying that U.S. President Donald Trump called him and apologized about U.S. legal action targeting 19 TURKISH security officials who were involved in clashes with peaceful protesters in the U.S. this year, while the U.S. denied the TURKISH claim, this is another example of drama on the geopolitical stage. In my opinion, the security guards allowed the protesters to get under their skin namely because many of them were loyal activists of the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY considers the YPG a terror organization and an extension of KURDISH PKK militants waging a thirty plus years insurgency against the TURKISH state although the YPG is a key U.S. ally in SYRIA against ISIS. In my opinion, this case has all the characteristics of a prolonged legal battle as only two suspects, who are not security officers, were arrested in June and appeared in court on September 7, while the rest remain at large and are thought to have returned to TURKEY. Therefore, it is my opinion that lawyers on both sides will enter into a prolonged legal battle regarding the legitimacy of the accusations with primary focus on jurisdiction and power of authority. In my opinion, the security officers behaved in conformance with TURKISH norms under the circumstances although their actions were clearly in conflict with U.S. laws and regulations. That is, the protestors exercised their civil rights and liberties to freedom of speech to essentially blast President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that is acceptable under the fundamental U.S. principal that to the extent the protestors are peaceful and do not resort to violence or threats, they have the right to voice their opinions including denouncing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly to his face in public. However, in TURKEY this type of protesting behaviour is not tolerated as it is categorized as violence and threats towards the President such that the security guards trained and educated in TURKEY behaved in accordance with TURKISH application of the laws concerning freedom of speech which limit freedom of expression to positive complimenting only of the President. Thus, I believe we will see a circus act unfold in the U.S. courts to conclude that these activities represented an inappropriate relationship. In my opinion, TURKISH lawyers will argue that the TURKISH security guards behaved in accordance with the TURKISH definition of inappropriate protestor actions although the protestors appear to have been in conformance with U.S. laws by limiting their activities to verbal airing of opinions without any violence or threats of violence. Therefore, there will likely be a negotiated settlement similar to the Lewinsky scandal whereby the TURKISH security guards will only admit to inappropriate relationships with protestors due to jurisdictional conflicts in the application of reasonable security measures under the circumstances in light of perceived threats by TURKISH security guards who deemed the protestors to be terrorists. In my opinion, this incident will perfectly depict the new geopolitical realities of twisting, turning and manipulating all underlying facts and circumstances in the favour of one’s personal, financial and political interests.
 

Moving on to IRAQ, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs.

In regards to RUSSIA, the only major power that has not called on IRAQI’s KURDS to cancel a referendum on independence next week as RUSSIA has swiftly become the top funder of KURDISH oil and gas deals with as much as $ 4 billion pledged in less than a year, this is just another example of the new geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and shit walks. In my opinion, RUSSIA has demonstrated once again that it supports the concept of autonomy to the extent it benefits RUSSIA’s economy albeit the reality that everybody else plays this same game whereby pick and choose their respective battles depending on an analysis of costs versus benefits to ignore underlying domestic issues without any shame by choosing not to lay any blame. In my opinion, the U.S., EUROPEAN countries, TURKEY and IRAN have all lined up to oppose the move by IRAQI’s KURDS to hold the September 25 referendum on independence because it will take place within the autonomous KURDISH region itself that is currently considered to be a disputed territory such that everybody is afraid of another IRAQI civil war between the KURDS and IRAQI forces who have managed to coordinate their efforts thus far by focusing on a common enemy of ISIS to set the bar. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS have the right to pursue their independence via a democratic referendum albeit the reality that they seem to be moving way too fast given that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum is in violation of IRAQI constitutionality. In my opinion, it would have been far more effective for the IRAQI KURDS to hold off on their referendum while negotiating a deal with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitutionality so that whatever the end result will be, it can be supported legally as opposed to the upcoming September 25 referendum that will likely only serve a victory symbolically.
 

Moving on to SYRIA, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated approximately 80% of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, with 80% of the RAQQA territory captured from ISIS, the SDF is now entering the final stages of the war against ISIS albeit the realities that the last 20% will be the most difficult and painful to conquest. In my opinion, the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY have now been confined to the city centre in government administrative buildings, stadiums and tunnels thanks to heavy coalition air strikes forcing ISIS to withdraw from at least five key neighbourhoods around RAQQA CITY. However, in my opinion the remaining ISIS fighters in RAQQA CITY will most likely die in a street fight whereby their food and ammunitions will run out after which they will attempt one last storm on SDF forces only to die in a blaze of glory in ISIS minds of the mentally disturbed kind.

During the week ending on Sunday, September 17, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY urged EUROPEAN countries to change their view of TURKEY saying that unless the EU sees TURKEY as an equal partner, a healthy relationship will not be possible. Furthermore, TURKEY clearly stated its intentions with regards to the EU whereby TURKEY does not want to have problems with EUROPE but TURKEY is also not going to bow down to impositions and double standards. Meanwhile, QATAR’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani held talks in TURKEY with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his first trip abroad since the start of the GULF diplomatic crisis. As a friendly reminder, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a major supporter of QATAR since June 5, 2017 when SAUDI ARABIA, BAHRAIN, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and EGYPT cut ties and blockaded QATAR accusing QATAR of supporting terrorism and fostering ties with their rival IRAN that QATAR vehemently denied. In a show of solidarity, TURKEY also sent cargo ships and hundreds of planes loaded with food to break the QATAR blockade as TURKEY has a military base in QATAR that deployed more troops after the hostilities erupted while the closure of the TURKISH base was one of the thirteen conditions demanded by the SAUDI led block. 
 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls two towns consisting of HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have broken through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS still continues to strike ALLIANCE forces whenever there is an opportunity available such that nine IRAQI army personnel were killed in fierce clashes with ISIS near TAL AFAR west of NINEVEH. It appears that around 40 ISIS militants on board of cars launched an attack against military units of the IRAQI army at QASABET AL-RA’IE, located 11 km away from TAL AFAR. However, on a positive note, eighty militants, including 15 suicide bombers were killed during operations carried out by the IRAQI army troops while in AIYADHIYA, IRAQI forces backed by fighter jets, killed 65 ISIS militants, including 15 suicide bombers, during an operation to purge the village. As TAL AFAR is liberated from ISIS control, ISIS female members, most of whom are foreigners, are turning themselves over to IRAQI troops. Around 1,000 foreign women from Turkey, Tajikistan, Russia, Azerbaijan and China, left AIYADHIYA, TAL AFAR along with their children. Therefore, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS. 
 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border. These captures on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border come ahead of an anticipated LEBANESE offensive to clear the ISIS extremists from the LEBANESE side of the border which slowed down last week as ISIS asked the SYRIAN Army and its ally HEZBOLLAH to let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR which the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH agreed to in principal. Therefore, after a weeklong campaign to oust ISIS from its territory on the LEBANON-SYRIA border, LEBANESE President Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s problem. Ironically, this week the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the SYRIAN desert for two weeks has reached its final destination in eastern SYRIA after the U.S. led coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing so. Lebanese Shiite militant group HEZBOLLAH and the SYRIAN regime helped to broker the August 28, 2017 deal that saw around 300 ISIS fighters and 300 family members and civilians transported in return for the bodies of LEBANESE soldiers captured in 2014 and killed by ISIS. Thus, the agreement ended ISIS’s presence on the LEBANESE border after three years in the BEKAA VALLEY of LEBANON. The convoy reached ISIS held territory in DEIR EZZOR province after the ALLIANCE decision to stop their surveillance of the ISIS convoy. 
 

On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. It appears that these coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating more than half of the RAQQA enclave including the OLD RAQQA City. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, ISIS fighters have been pushed out from RAQQA’s OLD CITY after US backed forces took back the city in a series of lightning fast advances. SDF forces are on the edges of ISIS’s security quarter in RAQQA’s city centre where most of ISIS’s main bases are currently located and many ISIS fighters and civilians are currently holed up in the OLD RAQQA CITY. In addition, ISIS is surrounded on all sides as a U.S. led coalition is seeking to oust ISIS from RAQQA, while SYRIAN government forces, backed by the RUSSIAN air force and IRAN backed militias are also advancing on the RAQQA OLD CITY. On a positive note, the SDF announced that they are continuing to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks. Heavy clashes continue between the SDF and the ISIS militants in the surrounding areas of AL-WATANI hospital and the RASHID garden located in AL-AMIN neighborhood in the city center. In addition, the SYRIAN Arab Army, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN also has simultaneous operations ongoing in DEIR EZ-ZOR such that SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated around 42,000 square-kilometers in SYRIA previously held by ISIS that represents approximately seventy-seven percent of the territory previously under ISIS control. It is important to note that ISIS has released chilling propaganda footage of close-quarter firefights with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad in the southeastern desert of RAQQA province. In the wake of the battle, over a dozen SAA soldiers were shown dead while some even had their heads chopped off.

In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKEY urged EUROPEAN countries to change their view of TURKEY saying that unless the EU sees TURKEY as an equal partner, a healthy relationship will not be possible. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is utilizing a political strategy of focusing on so-called enemies to mobilize supporters, as it seems that whenever there is a perceived threat, the TURKISH population rallies behind their President. Therefore, in my opinion, GERMANY and the rest of EUROPE should not react to everything that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says and does as he is always on the lookout for an enemy, and GERMANY is the best possible enemy at the moment because GERMANY is home to the largest population of TURKS outside TURKEY. In my opinion, the constant attacks on GERMANY are President Recep Tayyip Rogan’s way of strumming up support from the TURKISH population at large such that GERMANY should not debate questions such as whether or not TURKEY belongs to EUROPE or whether to stop membership talks with TURKEY as that is what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to want. Therefore, GERMANY and the EU need to choose their battles with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as it seems unlikely that TURKEY will become a EU member anytime in the near future. In my opinion, TURKEY is probably not going to join the EU in the next 10 or 20 years but negotiations with TURKEY are more about the principle whereby TURKEY cannot just be ignored after expressing their interest. In my opinion, of the 33 EU membership requirements, only one has been fully completed dealing with science and research back in 2006 while 32 other requirements are still in process or are being blocked by other EU states. In my opinion, some critical requirements have not yet been tackled like democracy, the rule of law, human rights and freedom of opinion that have to be resolved although TURKEY currently stands far apart from the EU. In my opinion, if TURKEY really does want to join the EU, then TURKEY has to take a stand on these issues such that TURKEY needs to be in serious EU membership talks to do so. However, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacks another nation such as GERMANY by calling GERMANY’s citizens NAZIS while knowing very well that the GERMANS have a problem with their past, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is exploiting GERMANY in the sense that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to be able to claim that the EUROPEANS did not even want to talk to TURKEY about human rights so that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can once again strum-up the mass support of the TURKISH population for the authoritarian style of TURKEY’s current regime. 
 

Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. 
 

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, as was seen this week with nine IRAQI army personnel killed in fierce clashes with ISIS near TAL AFAR west of NINEVEH, ISIS still remains a threat to be reckoned with as they continue to lurk in the shadows like wolves stalking their prey just waiting for the opportune moment to strike ALLIANCE forces with the goal to kill, cripple or maim. Therefore, ALLIANCE forces can never let their guard down as ISIS is still in a hate induced coma state of mind such that ISIS will stoop to the lowest levels possible if need be just to see ALLIANCE forces bleed without any hesitation to commit atrocities and any reflection from turning themselves into a kamikaze. In regards to around 1,000 foreign women from Turkey, Tajikistan, Russia, Azerbaijan and China, along with their children, turning themselves over to IRAQI troops, I am not surprised to see them turning themselves in although I am quite surprised to see the number of foreign women attracted to ISIS militants. In my opinion, ISIS was able to lure these women to IRAQ with the promise of grandeur when it did first appear that ISIS would maintain significant IRAQI control as internationally the new laws of attraction seem to dictate love predicated on whether or not one will be able to drive a Mercedes, eat caviar and drink fine champagne. However, with every materialistically driven dream comes a rude awakening that when one makes a vow of for better or worse until money does us part, it is inevitable that with the downfall of ISIS, IRAQ find themselves with a single women plethora. Lastly, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.  
 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seem to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR AL-ZOR made sense as DEIR AL-ZOR province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is almost entirely under ISIS control such that it made sense to allow ISIS to concentrate itself in territories already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS reach around the remaining parts of the Middle East. Therefore, although I agree with the LEBANESE government decision this week whereby 300 ISIS fighters and their families were bussed over the border back into SYRIA, it is important to note that the IRAQI military and U.S. led coalition were furious as these 300 ISIS fighters have now become their problem once again. However, in my opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s hell on earth of DEIR AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into LEBANESE heaven to contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people mentally insane. Nonetheless, there continued to be outrage this week from several fronts that believe ISIS militants should have been killed on the battlefield rather than given safe transport to DEIR AL-ZOR. Ironically, this week the convoy of ISIS fighters that was stranded in the SYRIAN desert for two weeks has reached its final destination in eastern SYRIA after the U.S. led coalition allowed it free passage in spite of a pledge to prevent it from doing so. In my opinion, the ALLIANCE forces under the U.S. command pulled their drones at the request of RUSSIA, a key ally of SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad, allowing SYRIAN regime and RUSSIAN forces to move through the area. However, the U.S. is not stupid as following the agreement, the ALLIANCE carried out airstrikes on the route to the DEIR EZZOR town of ALBUKAMAL to prevent the convoy’s passage by destroying bridges and leaving large craters that stranded ISIS in central SYRIA. In essence, the ALLIANCE drones were monitoring the convoy and striking any ISIS militants who moved too far from the vehicles although the ALLIANCE did not strike the convoy directly because it was carrying women and children. Therefore, the U.S. insured that the convoy did arrive in eastern SYRIA unharmed and unthreatened on a route held by the SYRIAN regime between the town of AL-SUKNA and DEIR EZZOR and were escorted by HEZBOLLAH who brokered the deal. In my opinion once again, it is far better to allow ISIS to congregate in areas currently under ISIS control than to allow ISIS to spread its tentacles across the entire Middle East. In my opinion, the realities of the ISIS organization are that ISIS will not disappear completely off the face of the map as they still have quite a bit of amassed wealth such that eventually some sort of ceasefire deal will need to be negotiated with ISIS to contain them to limited restricted areas as opposed to dispersing them across the globe and giving ISIS the opportunity to launch covert terrorist strikes globally. 

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe that the coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating approximately half of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, the SDF continues to push forward and to advance into the center of RAQQA city where they have been thwarting car bombs and suicide attacks to the point where the SDF and the SYRIAN Arab Army forces have now liberated around 42,000 square-kilometers in SYRIA previously held by ISIS that represents approximately seventy-seven percent of the territory previously under ISIS control. Furthermore, the coordinated efforts with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad in the southeastern desert of RAQQA province has been a positive development as finally the SDF and the SAA have launched coordinated efforts on ISIS that have proven way too strong for ISIS to withstand as ISIS slowly finds itself in a more constrained and tighter environment like rats stuck in a shrinking maze of the mentally insane. 


In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 264” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit realities whereby nobody wants to admit that ISIS still remains a threat to be reckoned with as they continue to lurk in the shadows like wolves stalking their prey just waiting for the opportune moment to strike ALLIANCE forces with the goal to kill, cripple or maim without any hesitation to commit atrocities and any reflection from turning themselves into kamikazes. 

During the week ending on Sunday, September 10, 2017, TURKEY retreated from their days of aggressive sieges of CIZRE, SILOPI, DIYARBAKIR and NUSAYBIN, predominantly KURDISH, which TURKEY had converted into a suburban war zone area as TURKEY was on the defense as they were subject to an internal military “Coup D’État” that failed as gunfire and explosions erupted in which 265 people died, 161 of them civilians during July of 2016. As a result of the failed “Coup D’État”, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, extended the period during which suspects can be detained without charge to 30 days, closed more than 1,000 private schools and closed more than 1,200 associations. A wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Therefore, those opposing the vote say the proposed constitutional changes will give “Free Reign” to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has already been pushing the boundaries of his power as his governing AKP has been utilizing an increasingly authoritarian style since the failed “Coup D’État” attempt which led to an intense crackdown leading to the arrests of over 47,000 government critics, academics, journalists, military officials and civil servants. Nonetheless, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed the U.S. over charges that a former TURKISH economy minister conspired to help IRAN evade U.S. sanctions while depicting the indictment as a political move against TURKEY. The indictment of EX-TURKISH minister Zafer Caglayan in a widening U.S. investigation into TURKISH businessman and TURKISH officials who allegedly helped IRAN evade sanctions has now heightened the already tense relations between TURKEY and the U.S. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the U.S. authorities to review the decision to indict Zafer Caglayan on the basis that the EX-TURKISH minister had not engaged in any wrong doing since TURKEY had not imposed sanctions on IRAN that is an important trade partner of TURKEY. Therefore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he would take up the issue with U.S. officials when he attends the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month while Zafer Caglayan and other Turkish officials remain in at large from U.S. authorities. Meanwhile, amid rising GERMAN-TURKISH diplomatic tensions, TURKEY allowed seven GERMAN lawmakers to visit GERMAN servicemen deployed at TURKEY’s Konya NATO air base that for several months had been banned by TURKEY on the basis that the climate in bilateral relations with GERMANY was inappropriate. 
 

Moving on to IRAQ, IRAQI and ALLIED forces have pushed ISIS militants back from MOSUL, their last major stronghold in IRAQ, whereby IRAQI special forces first liberated the eastern half of MOSUL from ISIS in its entirety subsequent to ALLIANCE forces seizing complete control of most of western MOSUL from ISIS. It is important to note that IRAQI forces put pressure on ISIS to the point of ISIS relinquishing control of MOSUL as the world watched the scenes of jubilation as IRAQI forces liberated the OLD MOSUL City from ISIS. However, with 40,000 plus dead in the battle to take back OLD MOSUL City from ISIS, the scale of civilian casualties reveals a massacre with many bodies still buried under the rubble and the level of human suffering immense. However, ISIS is far from eradicated in IRAQ as several strongholds still remain such that the final battles to push ISIS out of these places will be more complicated than the previous straightforward fights in places such as FALLUJAH and TIKRIT. Today, ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. In addition, many ISIS militias have taken to the hills and began to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some ISIS sleeper cells have also been activated at the border of Baghdad, the IRAQI capital. Thus, ISIS has now returned to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group as the Islamic State of IRAQ and SYRIA can no longer call itself a state as ISIS has lost all capacity to act as a state but rather ISIS now stands exposed as a GANGSTER sham. On the heels of the IRAQI military victory in MOSUL, IRAQI forces have now broke through ISIS’s defences inside the northern city of TAL AFAR and reached the city centre that represents a major gain in the battle for ISIS’s last urban stronghold in IRAQ as IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in the northern city of TAL AFAR and the entire province of NINEVEH. However, it is important to note that ISIS is now planning a fresh wave of terror attacks against BRITAIN and other EUROPEAN countries in revenge for the crushing defeats ISIS suffered in IRAQ and SYRIA. It seems that ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. Therefore, in order to limit ISIS capabilities to mount future offensives, it is important for the SHIA-dominated government of IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to reconcile the leaders of the SUNNI tribes, many of who supported ISIS because they did not believe they were properly represented in IRAQ while contemporaneously engaging with the KURDS who have played a key role in defeating ISIS. 
 

Moving on to SYRIA, a ceasefire across SYRIA appears to be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval of the plan from the UN Security Council overriding all previous failed peace proposals and finally ending the six-year conflict. Although these talks represented the most serious diplomatic efforts in months, U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 100 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad has derailed the entire peace process. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson could not agree on who was responsible for the chemical attacks. Although the 80 plus deaths from the chemical attacks have been widely blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, RUSSIA has denied the SYRIAN regime carried out the chemical attacks. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week although TURKEY, IRAN and RUSSIA signed an agreement at the SYRIAN cease-fire talks in KAZAKHSTAN several weeks ago calling for the creation of four de-escalation zones in SYRIA that represent the latest attempt by all key players in the region to reduce the violence in SYRIA including the commitment by President Bashar al-Assad that the SYRIAN air force will halt flights over the designated areas in SYRIA. Unfortunately, the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt albeit Russia and the U.S. continuing to discuss the situation in round-the-clock mode anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control. However, tensions seemed to de-escalate this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border. These captures on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border come ahead of an anticipated LEBANESE offensive to clear the ISIS extremists from the LEBANESE side of the border which slowed down last week as ISIS asked the SYRIAN Army and its ally HEZBOLLAH to let ISIS withdraw from SYRIA’s border with LEBANON to the eastern province of DEIR AL-ZOR which the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH agreed to in principal. Therefore, after a weeklong campaign to oust ISIS from its territory on the LEBANON-SYRIA border, LEBANESE President Michel Aoun declared that LEBANON has been victorious over ISIS but angry IRAQI and U.S. officials pointed out that in fact, ISIS was bussed over the border to SYRIA to become someone else’s problem. That is, in ISIS’s first ever publicly acknowledged evacuation deal, rather than fight to the death in the pockets in the border mountains still under ISIS control, ISIS fighters agreed to a HEZBOLLAH-brokered evacuation plan which saw 300 ISIS fighters and their families bussed over the border back into SYRIA. In exchange for the safe passage of some 300 militants and their families to eastern SYRIA, ISIS agreed to reveal the locations where nine LEBANESE soldiers, captured by ISIS in 2014 and subsequently executed, were buried. However, harsh reactions to the deal came from several fronts who believe ISIS militants should have been killed on the battlefield rather than given safe transport to DEIR AL-ZOR as many Christian Lebanese critics of Hezbollah voiced suspicions that Hezbollah’s motives appear to have been to take away the Lebanese Army’s glory to what would have been the most successful and efficient military operation in more than two decades. 
 

On a positive note, U.S. backed fighters have surrounded the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA whereby the ALLIANCE fighters consisting of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mainly KURDISH and ARAB coalition, have cut off all routes into and out of RAQQA. As a friendly reminder, nearly 200,000 people and 5,000 ISIS militants live in RAQQA such that the efforts to retake the SYRIAN city has now drawn dozens of U.S. military advisors deployed directly inside RAQQA city itself with U.S. Marines providing artillery support against ISIS from the surrounding countryside. It appears that these coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating more than half of the RAQQA enclave including the OLD RAQQA City. Fighters of the U.S. backed, KURDISH led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue to punch their way through ISIS lines in RAQQA city as KURDISH forces are literally shooting their way through the streets of RAQQA, concentrating fire on ISIS positions hidden in the urban ruin of RAQQA city while ISIS fights back hard. On a positive note, ISIS fighters have been pushed out from RAQQA’s OLD CITY after US backed forces took back the city in a series of lightning fast advances. SDF forces are on the edges of ISIS’s security quarter in RAQQA’s city centre where most of ISIS’s main bases are currently located and many ISIS fighters and civilians are currently holed up in the OLD RAQQA CITY. In addition, ISIS is surrounded on all sides as a U.S. led coalition is seeking to oust ISIS from RAQQA, while SYRIAN government forces, backed by the RUSSIAN air force and IRAN backed militias are also advancing on the RAQQA OLD CITY. Nonetheless, in a sheer effort of rage, ISIS commanders opted for a localised counter-attack in a bid to turn the tide against the SDF Forces by trying to infiltrate the EMIN neighbourhood after being sent on what appears to have been a suicidal mission. However, the ISIS forces were detected by entrenched SDF fighters who opened fire on the platoon, killing 11 ISIS members before the remaining ISIS forces were forced to withdraw in disarray. Meanwhile, heavy clashes continued around the western suburbs and the perimeter of the city centre where the SDF has been trying relentlessly to break through the ISIS front for weeks while heavy casualties have been sustained on both sides. So far, SDF has killed some 1,200 ISIS fighters since the battle first began while taking out of action approximately half of ISIS’s initial manpower with around 65% of the former ISIS RAQQA capital now under Kurdish control. On the other hand, ISIS claims to have killed over 1,000 SDF fighters and released a forty-minute propaganda video to back up their claim. 


In my opinion, TURKEY’s participation in the military battle against ISIS is a positive addition to the ALLIANCE albeit TURKEY’s negative stance against the PKK that in my opinion is currently unwarranted and deteriorating. However, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the PKK as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will learn the hard way that nobody on the outside world looking in is stupid but rather everyone chooses to close their eyes and allow TURKEY to continue with its ethnic cleansing campaign of the KURDS in exchange for TURKEY signing a deal with the European Union (EU) to stem the flow of refugees arriving in GREECE. In exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY was supposed to receive Euro 3 billion in financial aid in return, the possibility of visa-free travel for its citizens, and a reopening of EU membership talks. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis. In my opinion, in exchange for reducing human trafficking and improving living conditions for 2.5 million refugees within its borders, TURKEY should only receive Euro 1.5 billion, half of the initial proposed 3 billion, in financial aid along with visa-free travel for its citizens who do not pose any significant risks outside of TURKISH borders. 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused his attention on another purge of the Fethullah Gulen opposition movement supporters on the heals of celebrating the victory of the YES side in the referendum that was held on Sunday, April 16, 2017 whereby the majority of the TURKISH population voted in favour of TURKEY’s parliamentary system to be converted into a presidential system effectively consolidating power into one executive branch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its primary executor. Ironically, TURKEY ignored all criticisms from foreign powers and went straight ahead this week with further crackdown measures as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed the U.S. over charges that a former TURKISH economic minister conspired to help IRAN evade U.S. sanctions while depicting the indictment as a political move against TURKEY. In my opinion, the indictment is in essence pouring salt on the open wound as TURKEY is already angered by U.S. support for SYRIAN KURDISH YPG militia, whom TURKEY considers terrorists via associations with the KURDISH PKK militia, and complains of a lack of support from the U.S., TURKEY’s NATO ally, following last year’s failed “Coup D’État”. In regards to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling on the U.S. authorities to review the decision to indict Zafer Caglayan on the basis that the EX-TURKISH minister had not engaged in any wrong doing since TURKEY had not imposed sanctions on IRAN that is an important trade partner of TURKEY, it is my opinion that the U.S. would not have issued a formal indictment unless the EX-TURKISH minister sanctioned certain transactions in violation of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. That being said, nothing is ever black and white in these types of dealings involving IRAN such that the indictment still allows Zafer Caglayan to defend himself in a court of law such that if Zafer Caglayan has nothing to hide, it would be simpler to just show up in court and let the defense team fly. However, in my opinion, there was probably some sort of elaborate scheme set-up to satisfy the legal restrictions of the sanctions while in substance it should have been relatively clear that the sanctions would be violated. For instance, if TURKEY sold certain sanctioned products to a legitimate third party that then turned around and sold the sanctioned products to IRAN, the U.S. will probably argue that a reasonable person exercising due diligence should have known that the sanctioned products would be rerouted to IRAN. In my opinion, this situation illustrates the new geopolitical realities whereby deals and sub-deals are set-up to satisfy legalities while certain ensuing decisions are on the brink of morality on the basis that one should have known the consequences of one’s actions to the extent one cannot argue insanity. In regards to TURKEY allowing seven GERMAN lawmakers to visit GERMAN servicemen deployed at TURKEY’s Konya NATO air base that for several months had been banned by TURKEY, it is my opinion that the TURKISH justification is once again political wrangling of the elegant “money talks, shit walks” adage of geopolitics. That is, in my opinion, TURKEY’s formal response that GERMANY’s visit is a multilateral visit and not a bilateral visit because this visit comes from NATO such that TURKEY must oblige as a NATO member sounds a lot better than the underlying realities. In my opinion, the underlying realities of deep economic and cultural ties between GERMANY and TURKEY with millions of ethnic TURKS living in GERMANY, millions of GERMANS flocking to TURKEY’s beaches and historic cities and almost 7,000 German companies establishing operations in TURKEY such as giants like DEUTSCHE BANK, SIEMENS and VOLKSWAGEN to tiny importers of textiles and food that translates into trade between the two countries in excess of $ 36 billion per year really means what TURKEY did not want to say which is that with $ 36 billion of trade per year, TURKEY is forced to listen to the GERMANS whether or not TURKEY likes what they here. 

Moving on to IRAQ, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after almost nine months of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ’s since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power. In my opinion, it will be extremely difficult to eradicate ISIS completely from IRAQ as ISIS still controls three towns consisting of TAL AFAR, west of MOSUL; HAWIJA, south of KIRKUK; and AL QAIM, west of ANBAR whereby each fight will have its own set of complicated political, military and foreign policy issues. Therefore, in my opinion, the last three strongholds in IRAQ consisting of TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL QAIM will be the most brutal and savage wars yet fought in IRAQ as ISIS has laid the foundation for martyrdom. That is, ISIS has in essence sent the message to its remaining conclaves that their only choice is to fight until death at the hands of the ALLIANCE, as the only other option is to choose to be killed by ISIS itself. Therefore, in my opinion now that ISIS has entered the final realm of one of the most brutal civil wars in history, ISIS has in essence elevated its game to complete and utter Barbarian, Neanderthal, Self-Centered, Egotistical, Narcissistic, Masochistic, Sadistic, Idiosyncratic, Sociopathic and Psychopathic maniacs. 

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in TAL AFAR was less complicated that I had initially envisioned because SHIITE militias do not appear to have taken revenge on ethnic TURKS living in the town. That is, both SUNNI Muslim and SHIITE Muslim TURKS lived in TAL AFAR before ISIS took over while the SUNNI Muslim TURKS who remain are considered by many to have been supporters of ISIS but they were not directly attacked as part of the liberation of TAL AFAR. Therefore, the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR in a lightening fast military offensive. However, ISIS now seems like a terrorist organization gone completely irate with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi now organising a number of sophisticated attacks against WESTERN targets to boost the morale of ISIS fighters after the series of devastating defeats ISIS suffered in places such as MOSUL, RAQQA and TAL AFAR. In my opinion, although ISIS has lost a lot of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA, this is not the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization. Furthermore, a new generation of ISIS terrorist groups could emerge in IRAQ if the country does not undertake radical political reforms to limit new ISIS recruits from entering the country. As a friendly reminder, there were an estimated 500 British jihadists fighters with ISIS at the height of ISIS’s influence in IRAQ and SYRIA but the majority of them have been killed by US-led ALLIANCE military campaigns to destroy ISIS. Therefore, IRAQ needs to closely monitor ISIS’s media campaigns as ISIS played the media card extremely well to recruit foreign fighters but also to demoralise the government forces in both IRAQ and SYRIA while they were never as strong as they led the world to believe. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of a new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS. 

In my opinion, taking out ISIS in HAWIJA will be complicated because it is located in KIRKUK that is known as a disputed territory because IRAQI KURDS believe HAWIJA should be part of their nearby semi-autonomous region but IRAQI ARABS believe it is part of IRAQ. That is, if the SHIITE Muslim Arabs stay in HAWIJA after ISIS is expelled, this dilutes the KURDISH claims on the area. In addition, the SUNNI Muslim tribal leaders in this area are worried that if the IRAQI KURDISH military or the SHIITE Muslim militias take part in the battle against ISIS for HAWIJA, then the SUNNI Muslim tribes will be attacked as well as they are considered by many to be supporters of ISIS. In my opinion, taking out ISIS in AL QAIM will be complicated because AL QAIM is located on an international border, between IRAQ and SYRIA such that due to its strategic geographical location, AL QAIM is by far the most secure city held by ISIS. Thus, both SYRIA and IRAQ would have to coordinate a military campaign against ISIS in AL QAIM. However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. 

Moving on to SYRIA, the SYRIAN government forces recapture of the entire former rebel stronghold of east ALEPPO in an offensive that left bodies in the streets and sparked global outrage managed to lead to a ceasefire across SYRIA that appears to now be broken after its brokers, RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN obtained approval from the UN Security Council. In my opinion, RUSSIA that invested much political time and energy in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for 15 months was the critical player in this ceasefire as RUSSIA managed to control the uncontrollable consisting of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, IRAN and SHIITE militias like Lebanon’s Hezbollah whereas TURKEY managed to control the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with their affiliated rebel factions. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled after TURKEY and ASSAD’s two main allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, initially backed these peace talks as guarantors of a fragile ceasefire. However, the allegations by Amnesty International that over thirteen thousand people were hanged at a SYRIAN prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the current regime under the authority of President, Bashar al-Assad were excluded from the agenda for the fifth round of negotiations that concluded at the end of March. In my opinion, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future should be off the agenda for now and the main focus of the talks should be governance, a new constitution and elections as the primary goal of these meetings should be to end the war in SYRIA and to implement a long-term sustainable solution for peace. 

In regards to the derailed peace talks, the derailment is obviously due to U.S. President, Donald Trump’s authorization of the firing of 59 TOMAHAWK cruise missiles at the SYRIAN Armed Forces in response to what the U.S. believes was a chemical weapons attack that killed more than 80 people authorized by President Bashar al-Assad. That being said, RUSSIA has now formally denied any involvement by the SYRIAN Armed Forces and RUSSIA in these chemical attacks and has gone so far as to accuse the SYRIAN rebels to be behind these chemical attacks on their own people. Therefore, the U.S. and RUSSIA agreed for the moment to disagree as the war raged on this week while officials from TURKEY that backs the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and IRAN and RUSSIA that backs the current regime under President Bashar al-Assad watched as the cease-fire agreement that establishes four de-escalation zones was violated once again. In my opinion, although the new cease-fire deal including the four de-escalation zones have been the subject of numerous violations from the outset as tensions seem to continue to erupt, I believe that RUSSIAN and U.S. round-the-clock discussions anticipating that eventually the de-escalation zones will be fully under control should be welcomed as a positive development in fully implementing the de-escalation zones. In my opinion, it is better for RUSSIA and the U.S. to try to work together to implement something in terms of de-escalation zones as opposed to sitting back and insuring that both parties achieve nothing. In regards to tensions de-escalating this week as the SYRIAN Army under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and allied LEBANESE militant group HEZBOLLAH fighters captured several ISIS positions on strategic hilltops along the SYRIAN-LEBANESE border, this strategic shift in focus by the SYRIAN Army on ISIS is key to overall peace in the region as the only issue that everybody in the region seem to agree upon is that ISIS needs to be contained to an underground organization without any significant control of land particularly along any major borders. Thus, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, allowing ISIS to retreat to DEIR AL-ZOR made sense as DEIR AL-ZOR province, which borders IRAQ to the east, is almost entirely under ISIS control such that it made sense to allow ISIS to concentrate itself in territories already under ISIS control to minimize ISIS reach around the remaining parts of the Middle East. Therefore, although I agree with the LEBANESE government decision this week whereby 300 ISIS fighters and their families were bussed over the border back into SYRIA, it is important to note that the IRAQI military and U.S. led coalition were furious as these 300 ISIS fighters have now become their problem once again. However, in my opinion, it is better to fight the ISIS devil in ISIS’s hell on earth of DEIR AL-ZOR than to allow the ISIS devil entrance into LEBANESE heaven to contaminate more territory like a plague turning more people mentally insane. Nonetheless, there continued to be outrage this week from several fronts who believe ISIS militants should have been killed on the battlefield rather than given safe transport to DEIR AL-ZOR as many Christian Lebanese critics of Hezbollah voiced suspicions that Hezbollah’s motives appear to have been to take away the Lebanese Army’s glory to what would have been the most successful and efficient military operation in more than two decades. In my opinion, Hezbollah’s decision could have very well been politically motivated underlining the complex relationship of rivalry and coordination that exists between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah itself that is a powerful military force to be reckoned with but in my opinion, the decision still makes sense from a macro geopolitical perspective. 

In regards to U.S. backed fighters surrounding the Syrian city of RAQQA as they try to oust the ISIS militants from their de facto capital in SYRIA, capturing RAQQA would be a major achievement in the battle against ISIS and help bring an end to ISIS’s reign of terror trying to create a so-called Caliphate. In my opinion, ISIS has used RAQQA for over three years to stage deadly attacks on the Middle East and further overseas such that capturing RAQQA from ISIS would significantly reduce ISIS’s terrorist capabilities in the future. I believe that the coordinated efforts are paying off as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have made yet another huge advance across the southern countryside of RAQQA liberating approximately half of the RAQQA enclave. In my opinion, the current strategy whereby U.S. airpower drops a barrage of bombs to suppress ISIS movements behind and towards the front-lines within the city, while KURDISH forces on the ground let loose with a barrage of small arms fire to break up ISIS fighters at sight will be less effective moving forward as ISIS has now adopted guerrilla warfare tactics including the intentional usage of innocent civilians as human shields to avoid air strikes by ALLIANCE forces. In addition, the increasing ISIS usage of suicide car bombs, snipers, drones and tunnels to slow down SDF advances with the fight becoming a matter of life and death for both sides has inevitably reduced the pace of advancement by the SDF in RAQQA. Nonetheless, in a sheer effort of rage, ISIS commanders opted for a localised counter-attack in a bid to turn the tide against the SDF Forces by trying to infiltrate the EMIN neighbourhood after being sent on what appears to have been a suicidal mission. However, the ISIS forces were detected by entrenched SDF fighters who opened fire on the platoon, killing 11 ISIS members before the remaining ISIS forces were forced to withdraw in disarray which clearly illustrates that ISIS is now fighting in desperation mode as the SDF have managed to encircle ISIS on all sides so that ISIS now feels like a bull trapped in a cage unable to penetrate. Unfortunately, the human casualties on both sides depicts the viciousness of the clashes whereby the SDF have killed some 1,200 ISIS fighters since the battle first began while taking out of action approximately half of ISIS’s initial manpower while ISIS claims to have killed over 1,000 SDF fighters. In the end, the bloodshed and carnage to liberate RAQQA will carry the repugnant, vial and nasty stench of bodies strewn across miles of trench that generations to come will never forget. 


In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 263” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace albeit new realities of geopolitical wrangling whereby deals and sub-deals are set-up to satisfy legalities while certain ensuing decisions are on the brink of morality on the basis that one should have known the consequences of one’s actions to the extent one cannot argue insanity albeit the new complexities that money talks while shit walks to determine what is deemed absurdities versus normalities.