9 juin 2018
6
09
/06
/juin
/2018
07:09
World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 302
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 302” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger another blood bath.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY on the upcoming elections on June 24, 2018 is not surprising as it represents the most pivotal election in modern TURKISH history that will result in the abolition of the prime minister’s role and thus President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could very well fulfill his dreams by obtaining supreme political power while overturning almost a century of parliamentary rule. Although in my opinion the coalition formed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi Party (IP), the Islamist Saadet Party (SP) and the Democrat Party (DP) makes complete sense strategically, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still appears to be the clear favourite to win the presidential race although a larger opposition block in parliament would pose a significant challenge to the governing AKP. In my opinion, the governing AKP is currently looking to capitalize on positive TURKISH nationalist sentiments after the TURKISH military victory in AFRIN as the governing AKP had never before called early elections in the nearly 16 years the governing AKP has been in power. However, in my opinion, the balance of power may very well lie with the KURDISH HDP that was left out of the opposition alliance.
However, this week’s shift in focus from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the main opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, is quite surprising but it seems that his usage of popular analogies such as TURKEY having all the resources it needs consisting of flour, butter and sugar but that TURKEY cannot make helva, sweet TURKISH meat, because the chef is stealing the flour have been evoking quite a popular following. Thus, from my perspective, it appears that Muharrem Ince is the man to vote for to end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 15-year rule as the relief pitcher for secularism in Turkey. In my opinion, although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been paying Muharrem Ince the compliment of focusing all of his political attacks on him due to his rise in the polls as the number one contender to the Presidency, Muharrem Ince does not seem to be deterred as he often brings up President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s alleged corruption when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan berates him as a poor fellow with a strong comeback that he prefers to be poor than of questionable wealth. In my opinion, Muharrem Ince has cultivated the support of the KURDS that represents a risky move in a political climate dominated by nationalist bluster. However, Muharrem Ince went to see the KURDISH challenger, Selahattin Demirtas, in EDIRNE prison, where he is detained on charges of terrorism while calling on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release Selahattin Demirtas so that they can race like men. Furthermore, Muharrem Ince stated that if he were elected, he would initiate negotiations to solve the KURDISH problem between KURDISH and TURKISH legislators in parliament. In my opinion, these moves are clearly designed to win the KURDISH vote in a possible run-off election in a country where right-wing politicians garner votes by attacking the KURDS as opposed to Muharrem Ince who garners votes by supporting the KURDS. However, in my opinion, the biggest obstacle for Muharrem Ince will be the media as the playing field is not level, as pro-Erdogan corporations now own most TV channels and newspapers such that Muharrem Ince’s campaign will be under-reported.
In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. Thus, I was not surprised to see the U.S. and TURKEY reach an agreement on the KURDISH YPG’s withdrawal from MANBIJ although I was a little bit surprised to see the KURDISH YPG accept the U.S. decision but in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG realize that the U.S. have been their allies in the war against ISIS such that they seem to trust that the U.S. will negotiate the best deal possible with TURKEY in order to avert a full fledge civil war. Thus, the KURDISH YPG should be commended for exercising restraint and agreeing to leave MANBIJ, as MANBIJ could very well be a key turning point in the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion with the government Syrian Arab Army (SAA), KURDISH YPG fighters, Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, TURKEY and the US all having a military presence in the north of SYRIA, all efforts must be exerted to avert a full fledge conflict as all hell could easily break loose.
In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In regards to the unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has now unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. Thus, I was not surprised to see this week, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric against ISRAEL going as far as comparing ISRAEL’s response to recent GAZA protests to that of NAZI Germany. However, I am surprised that ISRAEL has not adjusted its policy towards TURKEY as TURKEY certainly has altered its policy toward ISRAEL such that ISRAEL should consider now throwing its support behind the KURDS as they need strong economic backing from foreign investment such that ISRAEL could finance the development of the KURDISH region. In my opinion, the ISRAELI government only speaks out on behalf of the KURDS when it benefits ISRAEL’s own national interests and does not really seem to care about the KURDISH cause while strategically the KURDS could very well serve as an ISRAELI ally.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, this weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win. However, IRAQ’s outgoing 328-seat parliament voted in favour of a manual recount of all 11 million ballots from the May 12 poll in response to charges of electoral fraud stemming primarily from electronic voting machines used for the first time in IRAQI elections that produced varied results, appearing to give credence to the fraud claims. In my opinion, the recount has been triggered by the apparent frontrunner, Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi coalition loosing their initial leads in the poll by coming in third with only 42 seats. Thus, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr’s performance represented a rebuke to the IRAQI political elites that many voters blame for widespread corruption and dysfunctional governance. Conversely, Moqtada al-Sadr’s coalition promised to help the poor and build schools and hospitals, which were battered in the war against ISIS, and fiercely opposed any foreign interference in IRAQ, whether IRANIAN or US. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr himself cannot become prime minister as he did not run in the election, but his block’s victory puts him in a position to have a strong say in negotiations over the future government.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the alleged toxic bombing several weeks ago, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. Therefore, U.S. President Donald Trump was forced to order the U.S. military, in conjunction with France and the United Kingdom, to launch strikes on SYRIA in retaliation for the suspected chemical weapons attack by the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
Meanwhile, in regards to this weeks escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN after ISRAELI airstrikes targeted IRANIAN military infrastructure inside SYRIA subsequent to IRAN striking ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights, this reflects the very volatile situation unfolding before everybodies eyes such that common sense must prevail before emotions and hormones take over and the world finds itself in the midst of a Third and Final World War leading to complete disorder. In my opinion, the initial strike by IRAN on ISRAELI positions in the Golan Heights was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the landmark international deal with IRAN regarding its nuclear programme, an agreement fiercely opposed by ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was obviously instrumental in influencing U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision. In my opinion, there appears to have been some regressions this week as the tone escalated between ISRAEL and IRAN as ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad is no longer immune and thus threatened to carry out direct strikes against the SYRIAN regime if IRANIAN forces are not withdrawn from SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL appears to have changed its strategy concerning SYRIA such that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad has to understand that ISRAEL will not tolerate the IRANIAN military entrenchment in SYRIA against ISRAEL. In my opinion, the potential consequences are not merely to the IRANIAN forces in SYRIA but to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) as well so that I believe that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad should consider withdrawing IRANIAN forces from SYRIA as the SAA combined with RUSSIAN air force power is adequate to fight the remaining portions of the SYRIAN rebel factions who have been considerably weakened over the last year.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, the war in SYRIA appears to be heading in the direction of the existing SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad retaining power for the time being such that ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other that there is no possibility for IRANIAN paramilitary units to remain entrenched in SYRIA without ISRAEL striking their positions such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger a blood bath.
In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 302” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby ISRAEL blames SYRIA directly for allowing IRANIAN troops to become entrenched within SYRIA and in turn now posing a threat to ISRAEL, as although ISRAEL chose not to intervene while SYRIA was engulfed in one of the bloodiest and most horrific civil wars of human history, ISRAEL will not accept an IRANIAN entrenchment in SYRIA like the HEZBOLLAH entrenchment in LEBANON, while ISRAEL also holds IRAN responsible for fuelling recent violence on the GAZA border that has seen over 100 PALESTINIANS killed amid protests against ISRAEL, while ISRAEL continues to hold its hardline position that using non-lethal weapons to disperse PALESTINIAN protestors does not work as these are violent protests, for it to be evident that both ISRAEL and IRAN have such deep rooted psychological issues of hate, disrespect and contempt for each other such that it would be best for the world at large for the IRANIAN forces to withdraw from SYRIA as the SYRIAN soil is unable to absorb any more blood while an ISRAELI and IRANIAN conflict would most certainly trigger another blood bath.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
June 10, 2018
June 10, 2018
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