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13 avril 2018 5 13 /04 /avril /2018 14:31

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 294

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 294

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 294” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby TURKEY as both a NATO ally and a country that has lines of communication open with IRAN, still seems to be the U.S. partner in countering IRANIAN influence when the battle against ISIS comes to a formal ending for the U.S., while the KURDISH YPG still seems to remain a key U.S. ally in containing the ISIS threat, while the RUSSIANS would like to see the KURDISH held territories return under the control of the existing SYRIAN regime, although TURKEY would like to see SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad relinquish power as part of a restructured SYRIAN federation, as the U.S. seems to be heading in the direction of abandoning the region after the completion of the ISIS mission, only for the RUSSIANS to seem ready, willing and able to fill the void left behind from a complete U.S. withdrawal, with the continuation of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin’s power manoeuvres to restore RUSSIAN influence well beyond RUSSIA’s own borders and especially within the volatile Middle East, as U.S. President Donald Trump has laid more economic restrictions on RUSSIA, RUSSIANS and RUSSIAN companies, described by the U.S. as the most punitive yet, for a variety of U.S. identified evil doings in recent years, as the RUSSIANS conclude that there is no substantive evidence of a chemical attack by SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad on DOUMA in the EASTERN GHOUTA region.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied. Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week’s statement by Sergey Lavrov, RUSSIAN Minister of Foreign Affairs, that the easiest way to normalize the situation in AFRIN is to transfer AFRIN back under the control of SYRIAN government under President Bashar al-Assad, I tend to agree with the RUSSIANS except that TURKEY wants to see SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad relinquish power such that AFRIN will most likely serve as a bargaining chip for TURKEY. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY will only hand over AFRIN as part of a broader solution for the SYRIAN federation in the future when all other countries exit SYRIA as well while obviously insuring that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) remains the ultimate heir to AFRIN.

 

In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of his intent to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as soon as the fight against ISIS is complete while stating that the U.S. will consult with groups of U.S. allies including TURKEY in order to decide the U.S. next steps after the completion of the U.S. mission of defeat of ISIS in SYRIA clearly sends the message to TURKEY that the U.S. wants to resolve differences as concerns the KURDISH YPG via negotiations. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY as both a NATO ally and a country that has lines of communication open with IRAN, still seems to be the U.S. partner in countering IRANIAN influence when the battle against ISIS comes to a formal ending for the U.S. while the KURDISH YPG still seem to remain an ally in containing the ISIS threat such that the U.S. will have a difficult balancing act in order to maintain U.S. relations with both the KURDISH YPG and TURKEY.

 

In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, everyone seems to agree with the overall principal that a SYRIAN peace deal followed by humanitarian aid is critical albeit the realities that the respective parties cannot seem to be able to agree on the details in terms of timing and logistics. In my opinion, the relationships in the region have become ever more complex illustrating the new geopolitical realities whereby TURKEY as both a NATO ally and a country that has lines of communication open with IRAN, still seems to be the U.S. partner in countering IRANIAN influence when the battle against ISIS comes to a formal ending for the U.S., while the KURDISH YPG still seems to remain a key U.S. ally in containing the ISIS threat, while the RUSSIANS would like to see the KURDISH held territories return under the control of the existing SYRIAN regime, as TURKEY would like to see SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad relinquish power as part of a restructured SYRIAN federation, as the U.S. seems to be heading in the direction of abandoning the region after the completion of the ISIS mission, only for the RUSSIANS to seem ready, willing and able to fill the void left behind from a complete U.S. withdrawal, with the continuation of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin’s power manoeuvres to restore RUSSIAN influence well beyond RUSSIA’s own borders and especially within the volatile Middle East, as U.S. President Donald Trump has laid more economic restrictions on RUSSIA, RUSSIANS and RUSSIAN companies, described by the U.S. as the most punitive yet, for a variety of U.S. identified evil doings in recent years.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, the shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who has warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK fighters withdrew from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY elsewhere in northern IRAQ and southern TURKEY still hammered the KURDISH PKK this week as TURKEY was looking to send the message to the KURDISH PKK that they will no longer be allowed to roam around freely but rather must return to a confined, discreet and low-key existence. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent the message of zero tolerance for the KURDISH PKK when he once again struck a harsh tone against supporters of the KURDISH PKK stating that supporters of the KURDISH PKK will end up in hell while vowing to continue operations against the KURDISH PKK in both SYRIA and IRAQ.
Nonetheless, this week heated debates resurfaced regarding the return of KURDISH YPG forces to IRAQI’s disputed areas. In my opinion, the IRAQI government wants to assume sole control of the disputed regions to avoid any potential for conflicts with the KURDISH YPG. However, coordination to counter dangers at the disputed regions is ongoing and there continues to be imminent security risks from the re-emergence of ISIS such that IRAQI government forces must remain along the southern borders of ERBIL, the capital of the semi-autonomous KURDISTAN Region, as well as the KIRKUK province as KURDISH YPG fighters withdrew in October in order to respect agreements made with IRAQI Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to allow IRAQI forces to retake areas where sovereignty is disputed with KURDISTAN while negotiations between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments are on-going. Therefore, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG have made the right strategic decision to remain outside the disputed territories until a formal agreement is reached with the IRAQI government for joint administration of those regions. Furthermore, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG should avoid the return of KURDISH YPG forces to the disputed regions on a temporary basis with informal agreements to avoid the potential for conflicts between the IRAQI and KURDISH YPG forces that could easily be triggered by vague agreements where roles and responsibilities are not clearly defined and mutually agreed.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY continuing to celebrate victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.

 

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, this week’s alleged toxic bombing, using chemical weapons, of rebel-held DOUMA, in the EASTERN GHOUTA region killing dozens of people, including children, was deplorable to say the least. In my opinion, RUSSIA, which provides military support to SYRIA is obviously biased such that RUSSIA’s conclusion that there is no substantive evidence of a chemical attack is obviously questionable as based on circumstantial evidence obtained to date it appears that there was some sort of chemical attack such that it appears that Russia may be in substance holding SYRIAN people to political ransom by supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the face of these chemical attacks. In my opinion, it has become clear that RUSSIA will do what it takes to protect SYRIA regardless of the compelling evidence of the chemical weapons crimes committed and to shut down any further investigations or discussions about those crimes. In my opinion, the international community will be forced to react subsequent to the results of the investigation in order to uphold the worldwide prohibition on the use of chemical weapons. In my opinion, the reports of the chemical weapons attack in SYRIA is reprehensible such that if it is confirmed following the UN investigation, this chemical attack would represent further evidence of President Bashar al-Assad regime’s appalling cruelty against his own people and total disregard for his legal obligations not to use chemical weapons warranting some sort of formal response by the international community.
Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 294” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby TURKEY as both a NATO ally and a country that has lines of communication open with IRAN, still seems to be the U.S. partner in countering IRANIAN influence when the battle against ISIS comes to a formal ending for the U.S., while the KURDISH YPG still seems to remain a key U.S. ally in containing the ISIS threat, while the RUSSIANS would like to see the KURDISH held territories return under the control of the existing SYRIAN regime, although TURKEY would like to see SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad relinquish power as part of a restructured SYRIAN federation, as the U.S. seems to be heading in the direction of abandoning the region after the completion of the ISIS mission, only for the RUSSIANS to seem ready, willing and able to fill the void left behind from a complete U.S. withdrawal, with the continuation of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin’s power manoeuvres to restore RUSSIAN influence well beyond RUSSIA’s own borders and especially within the volatile Middle East, as U.S. President Donald Trump has laid more economic restrictions on RUSSIA, RUSSIANS and RUSSIAN companies, described by the U.S. as the most punitive yet, for a variety of U.S. identified evil doings in recent years, as the RUSSIANS conclude that there is no substantive evidence of a chemical attack by SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad on DOUMA in the EASTERN GHOUTA region.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

April 15, 2018
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5 avril 2018 4 05 /04 /avril /2018 17:15

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 293

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 293

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 293” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the U.S. appears to be unwanted in the long-term to remain in SYRIA, such that the U.S. should focus their attention on completing their initial mission of defeating ISIS, followed by negotiating some sort of peace deal between their allies in the fight against ISIS consisting of the KURDISH YPG currently under threat of extermination from TURKEY, while the costs of stabilizing SYRIA should be borne by the regional players including SAUDI ARABIA who believe that the U.S. should continue to stay in SYRIA until SYRIA is once again functioning as an independent sovereign country, as otherwise, IRAN, TURKEY and RUSSIA could use a U.S. withdrawal to advance their own strategic interests in SYRIA, while losing sight of the awful plight of SYRIA’s civilians as the never ending civil war grinds on into its seventh year after killing hundreds of thousands of people and displacing more than 13 million, with more than half a million people having been displaced this year alone in EASTERN GHOUTA, IDLIB and AFRIN where the fighting has been focused, such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG were outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force had exclusive control over the skies in the region such that the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied.

 

In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning this week that TURKEY’s military will not stop trying to oust SYRIAN KURDISH fighters from SYRIA’s north and that TURKISH troops would move eastward into MANBIJ and other areas controlled by the U.S. backed KURDISH YPG which TURKEY considers to be terrorists regardless of what the U.S. or any other nation has to say about the KURDISH YPG, it is difficult to determine at this time whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will execute on this threat in the short-term or whether he will be open to negotiations with the KURDISH YPG via the U.S. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.

 

In regards to the leaders of three major players in SYRIA; RUSSIA, IRAN and TURKEY ending a summit with a commitment to achieving a lasting ceasefire in SYRIA, even as the future role of U.S. forces in SYRIA remains in doubt, this perfectly illustrates the new geopolitical realities in the region whereby the U.S. appears to be unwanted in the long-term to remain in SYRIA, such that the U.S. should focus their attention on completing their initial mission of defeating ISIS, followed by negotiating some sort of peace deal between their allies in the fight against ISIS consisting of the KURDISH YPG currently under threat of extermination from TURKEY, while the costs of stabilizing SYRIA should be borne by the regional players including SAUDI ARABIA who believe that the U.S. should continue to stay in SYRIA until SYRIA is once again functioning as an independent sovereign country, as otherwise, IRAN, TURKEY and RUSSIA could use a U.S. withdrawal to advance their own strategic interests in SYRIA, while losing sight of the awful plight of SYRIA’s civilians as the never ending civil war grinds on into its seventh year after killing hundreds of thousands of people and displacing more than 13 million, with more than half a million people having been displaced this year alone in EASTERN GHOUTA, IDLIB and AFRIN where the fighting has been focused, such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who has warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK fighters withdrew from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the KURDISH PKK will always be remembered by the YAZIDI as when the suffering of the YAZIDI at the hands of ISIS motivated U.S. President Barack Obama to order air strikes and intervention against ISIS to prevent genocide, the U.S. could only watch ISIS on the ground as ISIS rolled forward pushing back KURDISH YPG fighters who had been in SINJAR when ISIS attacked. However, help came to the YAZIDIS from an unlikely direction as the KURDISH PKK fighters from SYRIA opened an offensive across the border to MOUNT SINJAR, carving out a corridor about a dozen kilometers wide through ISIS lines so that through the corridor the KURDISH PKK could save tens of thousands of YAZIDI lives.

 

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

 

Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.

 

Nonetheless, this week protests across most of KURDISTAN continued as hundreds of protesters hit the streets in Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) ruled towns like ERBIL and DAHUK undeterred by local authorities refusing to grant them permits. In my opinion, anti-government protests are rare in KDP territory where discontent is hardly ever expressed openly for fear of retribution. However, fear did not keep the KURDISH people from protesting this time and it is not expected to discourage the KURDISH people from voting their minds in the May elections for a new IRAQI government while their impact is expected to be even greater during KURDISTAN parliamentary elections currently scheduled for September. In my opinion, the source of anger and frustration stems from the costly KURDISH fight against ISIS that erupted in 2014 such that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has not been able to pay its 1.2 million civil servants their wages in full. Instead, the KRG cut all salaries by 25% to 75% with the highest paid people, such as doctors and professors, receiving the largest cuts. Then, to add salt into the open KURDISH wounds last year, after the KURDS defied IRAQ by holding an independence referendum in September, the IRAQI government imposed sanctions while withholding money budgeted for the KRG thus making the financial situation in KURDISTAN even worse.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.

 

However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY continuing to celebrate victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.

 

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the collapse of rebel control in EASTERN GHOUTA, after one of the fiercest campaigns of the seven-year war, has delivered the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels their worst defeat since they were driven out of ALEPPO in 2016. As a friendly reminder, EASTERN GHOUTA was one of the first areas of the FSA uprising against President Bashar al-Assad back in 2011 that was also, until last month, the biggest and most populous remaining rebel stronghold near the capital of DAMASCUS. Therefore, in my opinion, the removal of JAISH AL-ISLAM would represent a milestone for the SYRIAN regime that has hammered the DOUMA area for weeks to regain control of the last battered enclave. However, there is scepticism over the SYRIAN government reports because representatives of JAISH AL-ISLAM have stated on their social media accounts that they have been negotiating with the RUSSIANS and are trying to reach a deal that allows them to stay in DOUMA. In my opinion, the convoy of buses entering JARABLUS contained humanitarian cases including injured members of JAISH AL-ISLAM such that there has been no deal between JAISH AL-ISLAM and the RUSSIANS except for the evacuation of people on humanitarian grounds as JAISH AL-ISLAM insists on continuing talks with the RUSSIANS to stay in DOUMA.

 

In my opinion, as was seen recently with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that although ISIS’s caliphate no longer exists and the ISIS flag does not fly over territory, ISIS has not disappeared but rather ISIS has reverted to old terrorist tactics used before 2014. That is, attacks against security forces and civilians, often involving fake checkpoints, have centered on ISIS’s former strongholds of rugged rural areas known as ISIS strongholds for being hospitable for ISIS to hide out because of the rough terrain so that ISIS has been able to dig tunnels and store weapons, ammunition and bomb-making materials. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 293” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the U.S. appears to be unwanted in the long-term to remain in SYRIA, such that the U.S. should focus their attention on completing their initial mission of defeating ISIS, followed by negotiating some sort of peace deal between their allies in the fight against ISIS consisting of the KURDISH YPG currently under threat of extermination from TURKEY, while the costs of stabilizing SYRIA should be borne by the regional players including SAUDI ARABIA who believe that the U.S. should continue to stay in SYRIA until SYRIA is once again functioning as an independent sovereign country, as otherwise, IRAN, TURKEY and RUSSIA could use a U.S. withdrawal to advance their own strategic interests in SYRIA, while losing sight of the awful plight of SYRIA’s civilians as the never ending civil war grinds on into its seventh year after killing hundreds of thousands of people and displacing more than 13 million, with more than half a million people having been displaced this year alone in EASTERN GHOUTA, IDLIB and AFRIN where the fighting has been focused, such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

April 8, 2018
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29 mars 2018 4 29 /03 /mars /2018 17:23

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 292

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 292

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 292” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.

 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures while TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies celebrated the capture of AFRIN in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to have been a massacre. In my opinion, without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG were outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force had exclusive control over the skies in the region such that the KURDISH YPG had little choice but to abandon AFRIN as the KURDISH YPG militants decided not to make a fight until death stand against TURKEY as around 10,000 KURDISH YPG militants quickly withdrew in order to be alive to fight against TURKEY elsewhere after more that 1,500 KURDISH YPG fighters had been killed in the AFRIN offensive by TURKEY whose sheer brute military strength cannot be denied. However, in my opinion, AFRIN cannot be ignored because TURKEY’s aggression into SYRIAN territory bears the risk of the evolution of one strongman, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, continuing on this course of military aggression with further attacks in SYRIA. In my opinion, this is a recipe for disaster in a SYRIA already suffering from eight years of civil war with no concern for innocent lives such that the world does not need another dictator without respect for international legal order.

 

In regards to TURKEY likely being used as a pawn in RUSSIA’s game of encouraging TURKEY to continue along its current path of aggression against the KURDISH YPG as TURKEY has the potential to come into direct military conflict with the U.S. because of the U.S. ties with the KURDISH YPG fighters in MANBIJ, it is my opinion that RUSSIA probably anticipates that this conflict will turn TURKEY away from NATO and firmly into an alliance with RUSSIA. In my opinion, the only way to perhaps turn TURKEY away from TURKEY’s current disastrous course is by leveraging TURKISH dependence on WESTERN aid as TURKEY was supposed to receive over 4.4 Billion Euros from the E.U. during the 2014 to 2020 period that represents the only potential control mechanism for TURKEY to play by the international rules as a failure to hold TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accountable for his actions now will most certainly result in catastrophic consequences in SYRIA in terms of additional bloodshed and war. In my opinion, as a NATO ally, TURKEY cannot be allowed to behave in the same manner as rogue regimes such as SYRIA as TURKISH military strikes in SYRIA have resulted in both Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International documenting numerous instances of civilians being killed in violation of international humanitarian laws.

 

Furthermore, TURKEY’s military forces have been accused of indiscriminately striking civilian targets and looting people in AFRIN while women and children have been killed in strikes against targets with no apparent military justification based on evidence obtained by Human Rights Watch. In my opinion, the situation in the KURDISH region of SYRIA illustrates the complexities of the new geopolitical landscape as the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.

 

However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s shift in focus to the KURDISH PKK has come from intense pressure from TURKEY who have warned IRAQ that TURKEY will do what is necessary if IRAQI forces fail to clear the SINJAR area of KURDISH PKK militants although TURKEY’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim clarified that TURKISH forces would only mount a ground operation with prior approval from IRAQ. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK has made the right strategic move stating that it entered SINJAR in 2014 to help defend the YAZIDI people against ISIS such that the PKK announced the withdrawal of the PKK fighters from SINJAR stating that the YAZIDI minority there did not face any security threat any more. In my opinion, the KURDISH PKK announcement obviously followed TURKEY’s ultimatum over intervening in SINJAR as it is certain that the KURDISH PKK could either leave SINJAR by choice or by force as remaining in SINJAR was not an option after TURKISH clear stance of non-negotiable ultimatum, all or nothing alternative, without any discourse.

 

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

 

Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. Meanwhile, this week’s announcement by KURDISH Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani clearly stating that the IRAQI Kurdistan Region would not allow KURDISH soil to be used for attacking neighbours, as TURKEY threatened IRAQ with offensives against KURDISH PKK separatists in northern IRAQ, was the right strategic move as it is important for the democratic KURDISH political wings to distance themselves from the KURDISH PKK as the KURDISH PKK are walking targets these days with bulls eyes on their respective heads. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH PKK will most probably disappear from the IRAQI local scene while hiding out in the hills as it is obvious that there will be a crackdown by IRAQI security forces followed by TURKISH forces if the IRAQI security forces are unable to contain the KURDISH PKK.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

However, this week, I was not surprised to see TURKEY celebrating victory after TURKISH artillery decimated SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. However, unlike the case in AFRIN, the U.S. has troops based in MANBIJ and across the rest of the KURDISH region such that the U.S. is adamant that it will not withdraw its ground forces from MANBIJ under the presumption that TURKEY cannot attack the city of MANBIJ without running the risk of killing U.S. soldiers. Therefore, in my opinion, some kind of mutual agreement between TURKEY and the U.S. will likely determine the fate of MANBIJ in the near future. In addition, in my opinion, given the fact that the U.S. is retaining forces in other parts of the KURDISH region and is not planning on leaving anytime soon, TURKEY’s goal of invading the entire KURDISH region is unlikely to transpire in the short-term. In my opinion, the U.S. will most likely be forced by TURKEY to facilitate a successful KURDISH YPG withdrawal to the east bank of the EUPHRATES as a concrete sign of goodwill and the U.S. abilities to control the KURDISH YPG. In my opinion, the only thing worse, from TURKEY’s perspective, than the U.S. backing its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy, is the U.S. building up and supporting its mortal KURDISH YPG enemy while being unable to control them such that TURKEY will likely allow the U.S. to take up the role as a mediator between TURKEY and the KURDISH YPG rather than down-the-line support for the KURDISH YPG that is motivating TURKEY to destabilize the entire KURDISH region.

 

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital. In my opinion, the collapse of rebel control in EASTERN GHOUTA, after one of the fiercest campaigns of the seven-year war, has delivered the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels their worst defeat since they were driven out of ALEPPO in 2016. As a friendly reminder, EASTERN GHOUTA was one of the first areas of the FSA uprising against President Bashar al-Assad back in 2011 that was also, until last month, the biggest and most populous remaining rebel stronghold near the capital of DAMASCUS. Therefore, in my opinion, the capture of EASTERN GHOUTA will conclude a string of battlefield victories for the SYRIAN government still under the control of President Bashar al-Assad since RUSSIA sent its air force to join the SYRIAN war effort against the rebellion back in September 2015 that has essentially resulted in President Bashar al-Assad remaining in power.

 

In my opinion, as was seen this week with ISIS able to mount limited but nonetheless painful blows to various factions in SYRIA with shock and awe attacks in DEIR EZZOR, AL BUKAMAL and AL MAYADEEN, it is important to note that ISIS used all kinds of weapons in their attacks during which ISIS managed to kill a commander of President Bashar al-Assad’s AL-BAQIR Brigade, Asaad Abu Kassar who was among the most prominent commanders in the Brigade responsible for the capture of DEIR EZZOR city in 2017. Therefore, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the EASTERN GHOUTA region while TURKEY is hammering away at the KURDISH YPG in northern SYRIA only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 292” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS only to now appear to have been abandoned to be slaughtered by TURKEY, while there should at least be a moral obligation to support the KURDISH YPG, due to their significant sacrifices in the fight against ISIS, while it is also pragmatic to support the KURDISH YPG in SYRIA in order to secure peace in the KURDISH region, although the U.S. now seems to be avoiding discussions that the KURDISH YPG possess a right to governance in the KURDISH region of SYRIA, as TURKEY now inflicts harsh punishment resulting in the KURDISH YPG enduring ill treatment at the hands of TURKEY without any support such that if the U.S. betrays the KURDISH YPG during these dire moments, the U.S. will earn another enemy in a region where the U.S. has few friends, such that the U.S. needs to hold their ground with the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ whereby if TURKEY strikes first, the U.S. must reciprocate alongside the KURDISH YPG in kind.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

April 1, 2018
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24 mars 2018 6 24 /03 /mars /2018 07:13

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 291

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 291

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 291” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the Free Syrian Army (FSA) a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA.

 


 
 
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
 
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, I was not surprised to see TURKEY conquer AFRIN after an eight and one half week intensive military campaign that resulted in both TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces entering AFRIN city for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to claim victory while proclaiming jubilantly that the TURKS have given a lesson to the world. In my opinion, ever since the SYRIAN civil war began almost seven years ago in March of 2011, TURKEY has always had the goal of becoming a major player in SYRIA although TURKEY’s initial dreams of overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad and replacing him with a SUNNI-led administration may have very well faded.
 
In my opinion, the TURKISH military force was too strong for the KURDISH YPG militants on their own without any reinforcements from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), particularly in terms of air power, such that it is pretty clear that Turkey’s military superiority against the KURDISH YPG in AFRIN was firmly established as AFRIN had been preparing for a TURKISH invasion for a long time with intense preparations and fortifications by the KURDISH YPG that did not hold TURKISH forces back from AFRIN city for too long. In my opinion, TURKEY’s military strength, experience and preparations were in essence facilitated by RUSSIA who allowed TURKEY to send TURKISH troops into SYRIA while it also seems that RUSSIA restrained President Bashar al-Assad’s air force from intervening in AFRIN while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY. In my opinion, the RUSSIAN strategic manoeuvring represents the new geopolitical realities in the region whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN knowing full well that the TURKISH and Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces were far superior in strength when combined with TURKISH air force power, to essentially force the KURDISH YPG to retreat out of AFRIN or suffer disastrous consequences in terms of military casualties, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the FSA a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA as EASTERN GHOUTA is far more strategic to the SAA than AFRIN as EASTERN GHOUTA is close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that it is possible for the FSA to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA.
 
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
 
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s Associated Press revelation that the IRAQI Government has detained or imprisoned at least 19,000 people accused of connections to ISIS while sentencing more than 3,000 of them to death, seems to raise concerns that the mass incarcerations and speed of guilty verdicts could very well be caused by potential over zealous miscarriages of justice such that jailed ISIS militants could very well start revenge recruiting within the general prison population to build new ISIS extremist networks to avenge any perceived miscarriages of justice. In my opinion, it is important for the justice system to always remain fair and neutral to prevent breeding a new race of extremists similar to ISIS with poisoned minds in hate induced coma states of rage behaving like complete and utter psychopaths of the mentally deranged triggered by perceived deficiencies in the application of justice based on race, religion or creed.
 
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
 
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. Therefore, given the current difficulties encountered between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments concerning the budget allocation, I was not surprised to see the IRAQI government prepared to cooperate with TURKEY in the field of counter-terrorism against the KURDISH PKK factions on the basis of military risks to the sovereignty of both IRAQ and TURKEY. In my opinion, I believe that when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY would, at any time, launch operations in IRAQ’s northern SINJAR region against the KURDISH PKK, a group designated by TURKEY as a terrorist group for engaging in decades of armed confrontations with TURKEY, he meant it such that it is just a matter of time before TURKISH airstrikes are conducted in northern IRAQ against the KURDISH PKK locations.
 
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
 
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and pounded AFRIN while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that the strike against the KURDISH YPG was necessary due to more than 700 attacks, over the last year alone, that have been launched from the AFRIN area under KURDISH YPG control against TURKISH cities. Meanwhile, Reality Check extensively researched public reports of attacks on TURKEY in the time period mentioned, using several different sources, and it could only find reports of 26 attacks from SYRIA between January 1, 2017 and January 20, 2018 while only 15 of those attacks came from AFRIN. Therefore, the situation in AFRIN clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the dominant personal, financial and political interests twist, turn and manipulate all underlying facts and circumstances to obtain their desired results to launch an offensive regardless of any reality checks that clearly indicate that premise for attacks predicated on complete and utter propaganda bullshit.
 
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
 
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, as was done this week resulting in the deaths of 35 innocent civilians that targeted a market in the KASHKOUL neighbourhood in JARAMANA, a southeast suburb of DAMASCUS. In my opinion, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under President Bashar al-Assad have effectively captured over 80% of EASTERN GHOUTA such that although talks between RUSSIA and rebel fighters were happening behind the scenes, the renewed bombardment by the SAA is a clear indication that negotiations were not going well. In my opinion, although the rebels want a ceasefire deal, they are now in a weak position and shrinking in rebel-controlled territories under heavy fire from the SAA such that President Bashar al-Assad now seeks a full surrender of all rebel forces.
 
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
 
 
Summary
 
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 291” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby decisions are made that best serve strategic personal, financial and political interests as RUSSIA allowed TURKISH forces to enter SYRIA, while contemporaneously blocking any attempt by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air force and ground troops to join the fight with the KURDISH YPG against TURKEY, to in essence give TURKEY an opportunity to conquer this KURDISH territory of AFRIN, as RUSSIA seems to have chosen to give the Free Syrian Army (FSA) a foothold in northern SYRIA at the expense of the KURDISH YPG while focusing SAA efforts on the EASTERN GHOUTA region, to capture this critical territory from the FSA close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, such that RUSSIA has in substance given the FSA AFRIN in exchange for EASTERN GHOUTA, while replacing TURKEY’s seventy year military alliance with the U.S. and creating a new long-term TURKISH and RUSSIAN strategic partnership that represents a huge loss for the U.S. and a prize for RUSSIA.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

March 25, 2018
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17 mars 2018 6 17 /03 /mars /2018 07:03

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 290

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 290

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 290” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG is predicated on innate hatred triggering TURKEY’s current all or nothing position against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.

 


TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
 
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, I was not surprised to see the European Parliament’s motion calling on TURKEY to withdraw from SYRIA’s AFRIN district nor the TURKISH response from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promising that TURKISH troops will continue the operation in AFRIN until the mission is completed. In my opinion, TURKEY obviously slammed the motion approved by the European Parliament requesting a halt to TURKEY’s military offensive in AFRIN on the basis that it demonstrates clear support for the KURDISH YPG militants while in my opinion it reflects the realities that the European Parliament does not want to see another prolonged civil war engulf SYRIA with an enormous amount of additional civilian casualties.
 
In my opinion, TURKEY completely cut-off the supply of water and bread to AFRIN as TURKISH forces and their Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel allies have completely surrounded the KURDISH dominated city in preparation for a major ground assault on AFRIN that nobody at this stage will be able to prevent. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threat that TURKEY will also clear MANBIJ where the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers although the U.S. military officers say they have no intention of leaving although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged the U.S. to pull out of the area, could very well be a turning point in the TURKISH offensive. In my opinion, although the U.S. has chosen to stay out of the battle for AFRIN, if TURKEY attacks the U.S. positions in MANBIJ, the U.S. could very well get drawn into a war with TURKEY, its NATO ally that would effectively shatter the alliance and trigger an international catastrophe. In my opinion, the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby there is so much innate hatred by opposing factions as depicted by TURKEY’s current all or nothing stance against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.
 
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
 
However, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s strike on ISIS positions in western IRAQ killing seven ISIS terrorists while seizing a large cache of explosives and weapons illustrates the realities on the ground whereby despite IRAQ’s victory over ISIS last year, isolated ISIS cells believed to be linked to the ISIS militant group continue to remain active in some parts of IRAQ that need to be neutralized in order to prevent the resurgence of the ISIS terrorist organization. In regards to ISIS striking back in eastern IRAQ as ISIS extremists launched two separate attacks on IRAQI security forces in DIYALA and SALAHUDDIN, killing seven security members and wounding three others, this reflects the realities of the current ISIS organization that seems to be unable to take back control of IRAQI territories but is able to launch killing sprees in sheer terrorist attacks to inflict casualties and injuries. In my opinion, ISIS terrorists have recently carried out many insurgent attacks and bombings across IRAQ particularly in the oil-rich and disputed province of KIRKUK after IRAQI forces took over this territory last October as the remaining ISIS terrorist organization is fuming at the seems after having lost most of its territory in IRAQ to find itself like rats hiding underground as opposed to princes freely roaming the grounds.
 
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
 
Meanwhile, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians continuing with their total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena is not surprising after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region from 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion to the proportion of the KURDISH population that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen. However, in my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi lifting of the ban on international air traffic to the KURDISTAN Region such that flights can resume within one week is a sign of alleviating the existing stress on the KURDISTAN economy. In my opinion, given that only domestic flights have been allowed through KURDISTAN’s airports with foreign airlines suspending their routes in accordance with an order from the IRAQI government, the Kurdistan Region’s economy was badly hit with a decrease in tourism and travel affecting local businesses such that the full reopening of both airports in KURDISTAN will definitely assist its ailing economy.
 
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
 
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and pounded AFRIN while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that TURKEY will not hand over AFRIN to the SYRIAN government after it removes the KURDISH YPG militia as the TURKISH military and allied Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel forces prepare to attack the heart of AFRIN city.
 
Unfortunately, four branches of the SDF, which had been fighting ISIS in Syria were transferred from east of the Euphrates River to AFRIN to join the pro-SYRIAN government fighters as part of a deal between the SYRIAN regime and the KURDISH forces. However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s warning of disastrous consequences should Syrian Arab Army (SAA) government forces intervene in AFRIN cannot be ignored as TURKEY seems adamant about recapturing ARFIN with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) such that consequences of the SAA entering the battle will trigger a full fledge showdown. Nonetheless, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) may have no choice but to intervene should the KURDISH YPG, SDF forces and pro-SYRIAN government IRANIAN militias be unable to hold their ground as TURKEY cannot continue to operate unilaterally with military operations to seize territory when the KURDISH YPG are ready, willing and able to negotiate via their U.S. allies to reach some sort of a sensible reasonable accommodation solution.
 
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
 
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over one thousand people have been killed and over five thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus. In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths. However, this weeks sight of thousands of SYRIAN civilians fleeing in the first mass exodus from the besieged enclave since SAA forces launched an assault to capture EASTERN GHOUTA over one month ago was quite shocking to see as men, women and children staggered under the weight of blankets, bags and suitcases as they walked along a dirt road to SAA lines on the outskirts of HAMMOURIYEH town crying like Thanksgiving Turkeys after having been trapped in basements, cellars and tunnels for over a month.
 
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.
 
 
Summary
 
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 290” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the TURKISH stance against the KURDISH YPG is predicated on innate hatred triggering TURKEY’s current all or nothing position against the KURDISH YPG factions, built up over prolonged years of irreconcilable differences regarding an independent KURDISTAN, such that the only current viable solution from TURKEY’s point of view is the complete and utter destruction of the KURDISH YPG forces, while the KURDISH YPG forces from the outset were ready, willing and able to enter into negotiations with TURKEY via their U.S. allies from the war against ISIS, that was shattered with sheer brut TURKISH military force as TURKEY is unable to put its past differences aside with the KURDISH YPG to develop some sort of more logical, rational and coherent long-term solution for peace but rather TURKEY prefers to exercise its dominant authoritarian power under the principal that TURKEY will conquer first and negotiate thereafter if necessary.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

March 18, 2018
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10 mars 2018 6 10 /03 /mars /2018 08:13

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 289

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 289

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 289” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane.

 


TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, with the majority governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that TURKEY’s future is heading for more war and bloodshed. Unfortunately, the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have chosen the path of war with the KURDS as opposed to diplomacy via the KURDISH HDP political party which secured close to 11% during the last TURKISH elections. Therefore, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP will learn the hard way that the failed “Coup D’État” exposes the deep discontent within the TURKISH military ranks as the governing AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan persist with their quest to annihilate the HDP and the KURDS as the AKP is converting itself into a majority fascist regime with its house cleaning exercises whereby virtually all dissidents have been fired. In my opinion, the European parliament vote to halt TURKEY’s EU accession backed by a resolution condemning the TURKISH government’s disproportionate repressive measures after the failed “Coup D’État” in July was long overdue as TURKEY has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt, with its repressive measures over all opposition, that TURKEY does not share common values, morals, principals, ethics and views as the EU such that TURKEY does not fit into the EU mould. However, in my opinion, TURKEY still represents a major player on the European economic stage such that the EU will nonetheless have to negotiate deals with TURKEY as an independent NON-EU member country regarding the huge refugee crisis.
 
Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias know very well that without reinforcements, the KURDISH YPG are outnumbered on the ground while the TURKISH air force has exclusive control over the skies in the region at the current time. Therefore, the KURDISH allied SYRIAN Arab militias statement that they would be redeploying around 1,700 fighters from war fronts against ISIS to the AFRIN region to help fight off the TURKISH offensive represents the only viable alternative for the KURDISH YPG to hold back the TURKISH offensive. In my opinion, this situation in AFRIN is deplorable as significant resources are now being redeployed from battlefield fronts elsewhere focusing on ISIS in SYRIA and thus opening the possibility for an ISIS emergence upon previously liberated territories.
 
In regards to the U.S. having its hands tied as although the U.S. previously supported the KURDISH YPG led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in its war against ISIS, the U.S. does not want to go to war directly with TURKEY who continues to be a U.S. NATO ally, time will tell what transpires as TURKEY now seems to be acting unilaterally without consulting any of its NATO allies. However, in my opinion, if TURKEY eventually launches a military operation against the KURDISH YPG in MANBIJ, only 100 kilometres east of AFRIN, where the U.S. has about 2,000 soldiers, TURKEY will in essence force the U.S. to make a tough decision of withdrawing U.S. troops or retaliating in self defence. In my opinion, the U.S. needs to hold its positions in MANBIJ and advise TURKEY accordingly that the situation in MANBIJ must be resolved diplomatically through negotiations as the KURDISH YPG has not attacked TURKEY nor has it expressed any interest to attack TURKEY directly such that this aggressive attack by TURKEY on the KURDISH YPG is excessive and unnecessary given that the KURDISH YPG were willing to negotiate with TURKEY in order to avoid a bloodbath.
 
In regards to TURKEY rejecting international calls for it to suspend the AFRIN assault as TURKEY insists that the KURDISH YPG are an extension of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) regardless of the fact that the KURDISH YPG was the U.S. ally in the U.S. war against ISIS, this attack by TURKEY and the FSA appears to be more along the lines of revenge as opposed to actual terrorist threats. In my opinion, the TURKEY offensive is really meant to resolve territorial disputes between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and KURDISH YPG forces as the KURDISH YPG were able to take control of most of this SYRIAN territory by securing U.S. support in exchange for filling the security void created by ISIS. However, in my opinion, now that ISIS has literally disappeared from northern SYRIA, TURKEY wants to insure that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels retake their share of the disputed territories. In my opinion, the current situation in AFRIN depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane.
 
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.
 
Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces.
 
Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s announcement that TURKEY and IRAQ could conduct a joint military operation against KURDISH rebels in IRAQ that could start after IRAQ holds its elections on May 12 is not surprising, as TURKEY has frequently launched cross-border operations into the northern IRAQ region against KURDISH militants from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) who maintain bases there. In my opinion, the plans for a joint offensive between TURKEY and IRAQ is also not surprising as both countries strongly opposed the September 25 referendum in IRAQ’s KURDISTAN region that resulted in a yes vote for the separation of KURDISTAN from IRAQ. Therefore, both TURKEY and IRAQ now share the common goal of weakening the KURDISH military force in IRAQ by focusing on the KURDISH PKK that is an easy target as the KURDISH PKK is considered a terrorist organization by TURKEY, the U.S. and the E.U.
 
However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
 
As a friendly reminder, it is still my opinion that after the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, the IRAQI KURDS still have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.
 
However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH politicians considering a total withdrawal from the IRAQI political arena after the IRAQI parliament approved the 2018 budget with a reduced share for the KURDISH autonomous region were inevitable. In my opinion, the KURDISH governments’ demands that the IRAQI government allocate 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion is reasonable. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has insisted that the KURDISH share should be less, in proportion to the KURDISH population, that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the proposed amount is not enough to cover the needs of the KURDISTAN Region in 2018. In my opinion, the IRAQI government cut the KURDISH share of the budget in early 2014 because of KURDISTAN’s plans to export oil to the international markets independent of IRAQ which is no longer the case such that the budget cut has caused an ongoing financial crisis that further worsened after the KURDISTAN Region lost control of the KIRKUK oil fields to IRAQI forces in October. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.
 
In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.
 
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
 
As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.
 
However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG may force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. Nonetheless, this week TURKEY pressed ahead with its mission and entered the center of the KURDISH held SYRIAN city of AFRIN resulting in a further escalation of violence in northwest SYRIA. In my opinion, the TURKISH forces are standing strong with TURKISH air force backing such that they have been able to surround AFRIN from all sides with a clear goal of conquering AFRIN.
 
Unfortunately, four branches of the SDF, which had been fighting ISIS in Syria were transferred from east of the Euphrates River to AFRIN to join the pro-SYRIAN government fighters as part of a deal between the SYRIAN regime and the KURDISH forces. However, in my opinion, TURKEY’s warning of disastrous consequences should Syrian Arab Army (SAA) government forces intervene in AFRIN cannot be ignored as TURKEY seems adamant about recapturing ARFIN with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) such that consequences of the SAA entering the battle will trigger a full fledge showdown. Nonetheless, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) may have no choice but to intervene should the KURDISH YPG, SDF forces and pro-SYRIAN government IRANIAN militias be unable to hold their ground as TURKEY cannot continue to operate unilaterally with military operations to seize territory when the KURDISH YPG are ready, willing and able to negotiate via their U.S. allies to reach some sort of a sensible reasonable accommodation solution.
 
In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.
 
Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. As a friendly reminder, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over five hundred people have been killed and over four thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus.
In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. However, as was seen this week, air strikes on DOUMA as aid convoys entered the area is part of a larger trend whereby 67 attacks on health facilities in the first two months of 2018 have been formally documented. In my opinion, the problem with EASTERN GHOUTA is that the rebels do not represent one cohesive group but rather consist of multiple factions, including Jihadists, such that in fighting between them has led to past losses of territory to the SYRIAN Arab Army (SAA). In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad wants to recapture EASTERN GHOUTA because it is so close to DAMASCUS, the capital of SYRIA, that it is possible for rebels to fire mortars into the heart of the capital, which has previously led to hundreds of civilian deaths.
 
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 289” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how there is a persistent, perpetual and relentless jockeying for money, power and control whereby territorial disputes that cannot be resolved through negotiations must be resolved through force such that the most effective method to justify an offensive is by utilizing the terrorist card to bypass all international laws and regulations while legitimizing military operations that have no underlying justification other than a desire to control additional territories currently controlled by the opposition resulting in complex, dysfunctional and degenerative relationships as part of the never ending Hunger Games of the mentally insane.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

March 11, 2018
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3 mars 2018 6 03 /03 /mars /2018 09:16

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 288

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 288

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 288” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, TURKEY continued this week with their siege of AFRIN as the TURKISH army and associated Free Syrian Army (FSA) militias try to fight their ways into urban areas while suffering heavy casualties at the hands of the resilient KURDISH YPG. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the lesson of the many sieges in the wars in SYRIA and IRAQ is that bombers and artillery end up destroying almost everything in order to clear the way for their infantry. Therefore, in my opinion, the outlook for AFRIN that has thus far survived the seven-year war in SYRIA untouched, looks like it will be heading down the path of complete and utter destruction.

 

In my opinion, the TURKISH attack on the KURDISH enclave of AFRIN is likely to have the same devastating outcome as the SYRIAN army siege of EASTERN GHOUTA by destroying everything while contemporaneously failing to capture the area as the KURDISH YPG have demonstrated throughout the war against ISIS, that they are resilient. Given TURKEY’s aggressive stance, it seems that it is inevitable that AFRIN will come under siege like EASTERN GHOUTA where hundreds of thousands of civilians have been left without food or humanitarian aid as AFRIN has a single supply line controlled by the SYRIAN government that TURKEY could block at any moment as part of their siege. In my opinion, there is a lot more fighting to come as I believe that the KURDISH YPG paramilitary forces will fight to the end for AFRIN city and will never surrender while given the dedication and battle experience of its KURDISH fighters who have been fighting ISIS since 2015, a prolonged and bloody siege of AFRIN is in prospect. This situation in AFRIN demonstrates the new geopolitical realities whereby the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, although the IRANIAN trained militia sent to assist the KURDS in AFRIN are relatively small in stature, they are professionally trained such that they will only help the KURDISH cause in AFRIN.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s conviction of one TURKISH woman to death and 11 other foreign widows to life in prison by an IRAQI court for their involvement with ISIS seems to be quite harsh from my point-of-view. That is, the women were found guilty under Article 4 of IRAQ’s anti-terrorism law against any person who commits, incites, plans, finances or assists in acts of terrorism and for any illegal entry into the country. In my opinion, the women’s’ lawyers arguments that the women had all been tricked into coming to IRAQ and were not involved in any acts of violence should have warranted more lenient sentences but it seems that the IRAQI justice system wanted to set the example that ISIS wives are as guilty as ISIS fighters by mere association.

 

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

 

In my opinion, this week’s KURDISH Members Of Parliament (MP’s) stating that most demands were not met in the boycotted budget bill including of particular importance, the KURDISH YPG salaries and share of profits in the KIRKUK oil fields is not surprising as the IRAQI government seems to be looking for the upper hand in negotiations. In my opinion, the KURDISH governments’ demands that the IRAQI government allocate 17% of the IRAQI budget as had been the case since the new IRAQI government was formed after the U.S. led invasion is reasonable. IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has insisted that the KURDISH share should be less, in proportion to the KURDISH population, that the IRAQI government estimates to be at 12.6%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the proposed amount is not enough to cover the needs of the KURDISTAN Region in 2018. In my opinion, the IRAQI government cut the KURDISH share of the budget in early 2014 because of KURDISTAN’s plans to export oil to the international markets independent of IRAQ which is no longer the case such that the budget cut has caused an ongoing financial crisis that further worsened after the KURDISTAN Region lost control of the KIRKUK oil fields to IRAQI forces in October. In my opinion, the 17% demand by the KURDISH government is reasonable as at least 17% of IRAQI soil is covered with KURDISH blood such that the KURDS earned their 17% share through blood, sweat and tears as the KURDISH forces held back ISIS forces from conquering IRAQ in its entirety while IRAQI forces were scrambling and nowhere to be seen.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG will force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath. In regards to TURKISH warplanes attacking pro-SYRIAN government forces in AFRIN, killing at least 17 people consisting of three members of the KURDISH YPG forces and 14 from the IRANIAN trained militias who entered AFRIN last week to help repel the TURKISH offensive, they did not die in vain. In my opinion, AFRIN represents the symbol of a once again unified SYRIA without the interference of external parties waging a proxy war on SYRIAN territory such that I believe the SYRIAN regime under President Bashar al-Assad needs to send in additional reinforcements to AFRIN to send the message to TURKEY and the rest of the world that the SYRIAN borders will not be compromised by any external force be it the TURKS or anyone else for that matter and that the territorial integrity of SYRIA will emerge unified after this war. However, in my opinion, in order to end this war once and for all, President Bashar al-Assad also needs to extend an olive branch to TURKEY in exchange for TURKEY backing down from its operation in northern SYRIA entitled Olive Branch by agreeing to recognize the legitimacy of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) political members to assume their respective share of power in a new, reformed and reorganized SYRIA.

 

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. In my opinion, the death toll of over one hundred since last Saturday highlights the paralysis of an international community that has finally demanded a one month ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian aid as the continuing violence now raises further doubts over the sincerity of RUSSIA, the SYRIAN regime’s main ally, who had ordered daily five-hour truces and the opening of humanitarian corridors for fleeing civilians. From my point of view, in some of the worst bombardment campaigns of the war in SYRIA, over five hundred people have been killed and over four thousand have been injured in EASTERN GHOUTA, a Free Syrian Army (FSA) held enclave that is home to about 400,000 people that borders the SYRIAN capital of Damascus.

 

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other and/ or TURKEY on the one hand and KURDISH YPG and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS such that this war could very well continue for years to come if RUSSIA is not given mediator powers to negotiate a deal between all Parties. In my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and madness.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 288” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN depicts how the dominant personal, financial and political interests will hammer the underdog until they submit, unless the underdog has the physical, mental and spiritual fortitude to withstand the barrage of attacks, until a turning point occurs whereby all reasonable means of attack have been fully exhausted with the entire landscape destroyed but the underdog still standing strong, at which point in time the underdog will actually gain the upper hand as the dominant attacker realizes that the underdog does not have to win but only has to insure they do not lose, as to the extent the underdog is able to hold their ground, there will come a turning point in time when the dominant attacker backs down as they realize that they cannot defeat the spirit of the warrior whereby when the mind says stop, the heart says to death of one and all to go.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

March 4, 2018
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24 février 2018 6 24 /02 /février /2018 08:36

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 287

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 287

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 287” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN necessitated the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime to form a strategic alliance against the TURKS which demonstrates that when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Finally, the wide scale purge led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP re-escalated this week although TURKEY seems to be paying the price economically for TURKEY’s repressive policies violating virtually every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights whereby each member state is required to fully adhere to the safeguarding of the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their respective people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. In my opinion, TURKEY is by far and away the country in the region to be most worried about economically for 2018 as TURKEY looks like an economic accident waiting to happen. Nonetheless, TURKISH authorities continued this week with their repressive measures as TURKEY hammered the KURDS in AFRIN as TURKEY’s military offensive in SYRIA against the U.S. backed KURDISH militias has driven civilians underground in what from the KURDISH perspective appears to be a massacre. In my opinion, the fight for AFRIN has highlighted the powers of international players in SYRIA consisting currently of TURKEY followed by RUSSIA, IRAN and the U.S. all vying for positions in SYRIA as ISIS disappears off the face of the map. However, given TURKEY’s goal to takeover the KURDISH region of ROJAVA in SYRIA that borders with TURKEY combined with the KURDISH YPG losing support from its U.S. allies as the U.S. does not want to go to war directly with TURKEY, its NATO ally, the KURDISH YPG had no choice but to turn to President Bashar al-Assad for support. Therefore, I was not surprised to see President Bashar al-Assad send in hundreds of SYRIAN militias to help the KURDS in AFRIN where they were obviously met with TURKISH artillery fire.

 

In my opinion, President Bashar al-Assad made the right strategic decision to back the KURDS in AFRIN as by protecting the KURDS in AFRIN, the SYRIAN regime could win control over the area and gain potential leverage with the KURDS for the future as the SYRIAN government wants to reclaim all KURDISH areas, including oil fields in the east as part of the SYRIAN governments desire to maintain the existing borders of SYRIA intact. Furthermore, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG without the SYRIAN regime stand very little chance of successfully defending AFRIN against the TURKISH invasion such that the KURDISH YPG had their backs up against the wall which forced them to turn to President Bashar al-Assad for help in defending against the TURKISH assault. In addition, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who uses anti-KURDISH slogans to fuel nationalist fury in TURKEY is unlikely to relent until the KURDISH expansion is rolled back from the TURKISH border either through force or he may ultimately be forced to accept the SYRIAN regime taking control of AFRIN, even though he is opposed to it currently, as he sees the KURDS as more of an existential threat than the SYRIAN regime. Therefore, the current situation in AFRIN whereby the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime have formed a strategic alliance against the TURKS depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby, when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

As a friendly reminder, the IRAQI offensives in MOSUL whereby IRAQI government forces put enough pressure on ISIS to finally force ISIS to relinquish control of MOSUL has shattered the ISIS dream for its self declared caliphate albeit the challenge now facing the IRAQI forces to make the victory over ISIS in MOSUL last. That is, after over one year of fierce fighting, the campaign to recapture MOSUL from ISIS has drawn to a bitter end but the struggle for IRAQ’s future is far from over as the fall of MOSUL exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued IRAQ for over a decade. That is, the victory risks triggering new violence between ARABS and KURDS over disputed territories or between SUNNIS and SHIITES over claims to power fuelled by outside powers that have shaped IRAQ since the 2003 U.S. led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s SUNNI minority rule and brought the Iran backed SHIITE majority to power.

 

Now that the IRAQI military with 400,000 plus ground troops, predominantly transferred from MOSUL, managed to retake from ISIS the greater area referred to as TAL AFAR, HAWIJA and AL-QAIM in a lightening fast military offensive. In regards to the IRAQI forces campaign to liberate western ANBAR province from ISIS militants, Western ANBAR is the last region in IRAQ where ISIS held extensive stretches of territories. It is important to note that Iraqi government forces have now driven ISIS out of about 95% of the land ISIS once held in IRAQ and freed more than 4.4 million IRAQIS from ISIS rule. In my opinion, RAWA and the nearby Syrian border town of ALBU KAMAL are of strategic importance to ISIS as the group used routes through these locations to transfer fighters, weapons and goods. Therefore, the towns are also symbolically important because they made up ISIS’s self-declared, cross-border EUPHRATES PROVINCE that was a symbol of ISIS’s intention to eradicate all of the region’s borders between IRAQ and SYRIA. Therefore, since MOSUL was declared free, IRAQI security forces continue to comb western MOSUL areas for hidden ISIS cells despite the victory over ISIS as ISIS is still considered to be a significant security threat even after ISIS’s defeat at its main havens across IRAQI provinces. Therefore, KURDISH and IRAQI forces still need to be vigilant for ISIS reunions to launch attacks through small covert groups of suicide attackers. In my opinion, IRAQI Prime Minister Hider al-Abadi’s announcement of full liberation of IRAQI lands with an official declaration of an end of the war against ISIS is accurate in theory but not in practice as significant ISIS fighters are still hiding underground like rats. In my opinion, this week’s ISIS deadly attack on a SHIITE militia group near the IRAQI city of HAWIJA in the form of an ambush that killed more than two-dozen IRAQI soldiers needs to be responded to with force and determination to send ISIS the clear message that the existence of ISIS as a criminal organization in IRAQ will not be tolerated. Furthermore, ISIS needs to be brought to justice for such heinous ambush attacks, as the IRAQI forces must set the precedent that mass killings will result in a relentless manhunt until the perpetrators are brought to justice.

 

However, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.

 

As a friendly reminder, it is still my opinion that after the IRAQI KURDS referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, the IRAQI KURDS still have the right to pursue their independence pursuant to the majority win by the KURDS with 92.73% support while the turnout was estimated at more than 72%, albeit the fact that the IRAQI government claims that the referendum was in violation of the IRAQI constitution. In my opinion, the IRAQI KURDS still need to negotiate with the IRAQI government to respect the IRAQI constitution such that although the KURDISH vote was a clear indication of majority support for separation, the September 25 referendum only serves a symbolic victory thus far, as it cannot be supported legally without further negotiations with the IRAQI government. It is important to note that although KURDISH leaders were willing to use the referendum results as an opening bid in negotiations with IRAQ over expanded autonomy, federal forces responded by retaking KIRKUK and other disputed areas outside the KURDS’ autonomous region with limited bloodshed as most KURDISH forces withdrew without a fight although scattered clashes did break out.

 

However, the decision by the IRAQI Kurdish authorities that the KURDS would respect IRAQ’s Supreme Federal Court decision banning the KURDISH secession although all Constitutional disputes must be resolved through implementation of all constitutional articles in such a way that guarantees all rights, authorities and statuses outlined in the IRAQI Constitution reconfirms the KURDISH desire to avert another full fledge civil war. In my opinion, the KURDS will now force the IRAQI government to respect all elements of the IRAQI Constitution in order to secure the unity of IRAQ while no longer accepting second-class citizen status in practice. In my opinion, this week’s commitment by IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to lift an air embargo imposed on the KURDISTAN Region if KURDISH authorities yield to the IRAQI government’s conditions is easier said than done as IRAQ has asked the KURDS to hand over management of the airports to IRAQI central aviation authorities as well as revoke the results of the controversial referendum. Therefore, in my opinion, the embargo should be lifted gradually over time as IRAQI KURDS advance in their negotiations like this week when the embargo was partially lifted to run pilgrim flights from and to SULAIMANIYAH and ERBIL airports.

 

In my opinion, these are challenging times for the KURDISH region such that KURDISH frustrations are understandable but the KURDISH extremist violence is never acceptable so that the KURDS need to conduct their protests peacefully. In my opinion, the KURDISH government has exercised commendable restraint to avoid a full fledge civil war bloodbath with recent concessions made by the KURDISH government to the IRAQI government that clearly demonstrates that the KURDS desire to reach a peaceful negotiated settlement to this conflict. Therefore, I am now convinced more than ever that constructive dialogue can begin between the KURDISH and IRAQI governments that will result in a peaceful long-term sustainable solution.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

As a friendly reminder, to the extent the SYRIAN Army and HEZBOLLAH focus their efforts on ISIS as opposed to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), there is hope for peace in the region. In my opinion, it finally does appear that ISIS has been defeated in DEIR AL-ZOR, AL-MAYADEEN and AL-BUKAMAL albeit violent clashes that sporadically continue to erupt around the town as ISIS finds itself trapped like rats underground only to be swept to the surface as the SAA goes through their respective sweeping operations across the outskirts of town. However, with the combined forces of RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin and SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad declaring that they have completely wiped out ISIS in SYRIA, I expect that the remaining ISIS militants will be hiding in small towns and villages along the border with IRAQ in the SYRIAN dessert such that the remaining portion of no mans land along the Middle Euphrates River Valley will most likely represent ISIS’s last stand. In my opinion, ISIS still controls thousands of square kilometres of desert in the DEIR AL-ZOR, HOMS, IDLIB and DARAA regions such that although ISIS has been forced out of major SYRIAN cities, ISIS is still able to stage attacks on SAA and other rebel forces from these desert areas such that victory may have been achieved albeit ISIS still existing as a thorn in everybodies sides.

 

However, this week, I was surprised to see TURKISH artillery continuing to fire into SYRIA’s AFRIN region out of pure infuriation over the announcement of U.S. plans to train a 30,000 border force in the area of northern SYRIA where KURDISH YPG dominated forces drove out ISIS fighters last year while TURKEY now promises to strangle the KURDISH terrorist force before it is ever able to come into existence. In my opinion, when war reached AFRIN, it arrived with vengeance as TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now promised to take TURKEY’s SYRIA operations to IDLIB after completing TURKEY’s current mission in AFRIN where TURKEY is still targeting all KURDISH militants. In my opinion, in an unusual twist of fate, SYRIA’s deputy foreign minister called on KURDS and ARABS in AFRIN to unite against TURKEY’s Operation Olive Branch as Deputy Minister Fayssal Mikdad such that this week the KURDS and the SAA look ready, willing and able to fight TURKEY in unison that from my perspective is the only viable option to prevent TURKEY from steam rolling over the northern border area between SYRIA and TURKEY. In regards to RUSSIA remaining relatively silent during these recent manoeuvrings, I believe RUSSIA will eventually have to intervene as the only viable party in the region to negotiate an overall restructuring of SYRIA. In my opinion, only RUSSIA has the possibility to negotiate a deal between ALL parties because RUSSIA has worked with most major players in SYRIA to create several de-escalation zones where fighting has stopped and the opposition movements have been allowed to remain in control. In regards to IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch ally of the SYRIAN regime, denouncing the TURKISH invasion of AFRIN stating that any foreign intervention needs authorization from the SYRIAN regime, I agree with him because after seven years of one of the bloodiest civil wars in history, TURKEY, the U.S. and IRAN should all eventually plan to pull out while transferring control to the SYRIAN regime with proportionate control to the KURDISH YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) as this war must come to an end which can never occur to the extent proxy countries such as TURKEY, the U.S. and IRAN are involved. Meanwhile, in my opinion, if the only option the KURDISH YPG has to repel the TURKISH attack on AFRIN are the SYRIAN militias who are believed to be IRANIAN trained, so be it, as long as they can get the job done to stave off TURKEY’s attempts at an invasion. In my opinion, the SYRIANS need to regain control of their own country and decide on their own future in unison such that a united stand between the SYRIAN Regime and the KURDISH YPG will force TURKEY to stand down and come back to the negotiating table on behalf of the FSA to once and for all put an end to this insane bloodbath.

 

In regards to the Syrian city of RAQQA, rebuilding RAQQA will take years such that long-term homelessness for many is an issue already fuelling resentment against the U.S. and SDF forces that ended ISIS’s detested caliphate but simultaneously literally destroyed the whole city. Furthermore, the wait for civilians to return to RAQQA has been deferred indefinitely as potentially thousands of improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and booby traps have been installed all across the city whereby civilian deaths have already been reported by some of those who have tried to return prematurely. In regards to President Bashar al-Assad stating that they would not give up on the northern city of RAQQA as both the U.S. and TURKEY forces are colonizers of the SYRIAN country with forces on SYRIAN soil that are deemed illegal by the existing SYRIAN regime, time will tell how the future SYRIAN regime will look however it is certain that things cannot stay the same after one of the most brutal civil wars of the modern days transpired that should result in some sort of new power sharing arrangement to douse the hate induced fires. In my opinion, now in its seventh year, the war in SYRIA has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million such that SYRIA is in desperate need of a peace deal followed by humanitarian aid, clearing SYRIAN territory of mines and restoring infrastructure wrecked by the long-running conflict that has crippled all aspects of SYRIAN society.

 

However, as ISIS literally disappears from the face of the map in SYRIA, the question has become whether a race to conquer the oil rich regions could result in a showdown between the international coalitions consisting of the U.S. and SDF forces on the one side and the RUSSIAN and SAA forces on the other. In my opinion, a direct military confrontation is unlikely to take place but the SYRIAN regime is in great need of the region’s oil to boost its struggling economy after the U.S. seized oil fields in RAQQA, the AL-OMAR oil field and a natural gas field in DEIR EZ-ZOR. Therefore, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS.

 

Nonetheless, this week, it was sad to see the war in SYRIA entering into a dangerous new phase as EASTERN GHOUTA under attack by SYRIAN Regime forces on so-called SYRIAN rebel terrorists is a human tragedy that is unfolding before everybodies eyes such that in my opinion the international community cannot let things keep going in this horrendous fashion. In my opinion, an end to the fighting would allow the evacuation of hundreds of people who require urgent treatment as well as allowing humanitarian aid to reach the region. Every day that I follow this war, I ask myself how much more cruelty will it take before the international community takes strong and concerted actions to bring this monstrous, Barbarian and Neanderthal military campaign of annihilation to an end. In my opinion, although RUSSIA that supports the SYRIAN government claims peace talks with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have failed while calling for an urgent UN Security Council meeting to discuss the violence in the EASTERN GHOUTA region, there must be a better way than this grotesque savagery that is currently taking place whereby the SYRIAN army seems to be targeting everything from shops, markets, hospitals, schools & mosques with literally ten to twenty air strikes every minute. With at least 350 civilians killed and over 1,000 injured in less than a week, mostly in airstrikes, I cannot understand how this can be seen as the only viable solution to end this conflict in EASTERN GHOUTA without concluding that everybody has gone completely mad.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 287” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation but SYRIAN ceasefire between ASSAD and FSA also key while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace starting by all Parties avoiding stupidities as seen this week with the current military build-up along the SYRIAN and TURKISH borders that clearly depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby the current situation in AFRIN necessitated the KURDISH YPG and SYRIAN regime to form of a strategic alliance against the TURKS which demonstrates that when one has their back up against the wall, one must always choose between the lesser of two evils in order to be able to hold ones ground such that one must form an alliance with the party that will allow one to survive, even if that party would not be ideal if one had the choice under sunny skies, as one must do whatever it takes to survive while acknowledging that alone one will certainly fall such that one does not have a choice but to form a strategic alliance with the party who provides the possibility to hold ones ground and stand tall.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

February 25, 2018
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