In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 315” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA, by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while bolstering investor confidence. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could immediately stabilize by releasing Andrew Brunson, an evangelical pastor jailed after the failed “Coup D’État”. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which seems to represent a relatively quick economic fix albeit the debate of principal over the application of justice regarding the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.
Thus, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that there would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs.
Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson. Furthermore, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated this week that TURKEY followed the rule of law, such that the U.S. will not be able to make progress in this case by using threats, for that which TURKEY perceives as U.S. disregard for TURKISH legal processes.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN this week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis.
Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. That is, the relationship between TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has been on the rocks before when RUSSIA blamed TURKEY for helping to fund ISIS in SYRIA by buying cheap oil that ISIS stole while TURKEY shot down a RUSSIAN plane killing its pilot. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests raging in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for a new round of violent protests after IRAQI security forces killed six demonstrators during violent marches in BASRA. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with a political system that has failed to form a new IRAQI government will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easy to ask IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations while urging protesters to refrain from provoking authorities and damaging government property. However, when emotions take over an angry and frustrated IRAQI populace with stones and Molotov cocktails being hurled at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces, warning shots and tear gas from IRAQI security forces are inevitable which can quickly escalate into deadly protests and civil unrest.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see ISRAEL signal this week that the lull in SYRIAN air strikes was over as ISRAEL resumed military action against IRAN, with airstrikes in SYRIA attributed to ISRAEL, along with threats made by ISRAEL that they would respond to any perceived danger from IRAN accordingly. However, I was surprised that the ISRAELI strike on a weapons storehouse in the capital of DAMASCUS did not receive any SYRIAN anti-aircraft fire. Furthermore, I was surprised at the response received from the SYRIAN regime that claimed that the explosion was attributable to an electrical short because over the past two years, SYRIA has admitted relatively openly to ISRAELI strikes even when ISRAEL itself tried to remain ambiguous. Thus, in my opinion, the IRANIAN forces seem to have been caught by ISRAEL with their pants down unprepared and were thus not in a position to launch any anti-aircraft fire, but chose to ignore the ISRAELI hit to safe face as big egos are at stake. However, the attack on a convey of IRANIAN paramilitary forces along with SHIITE militias, bombed near the U.S. base near the enclave of AL-TANF that left around ten people killed, clearly seems to be attributable to ISRAELI forces. That is, in my opinion, this road by which convoys bring fighters and weapons from IRAN and IRAQ to SYRIA and LEBANON, has all the trademarks of an ISRAELI strike as they have struck in this area before and know the region well enough to hit IRANIAN targets with such precision. In my opinion, this east to west land route that IRAN has been trying to strengthen over the past several years, is now drawing more ISRAELI attention as recent reports have surfaced that the IRANIANS transferred medium-range missiles to IRAQ via this route, apparently as an interim area of storage between IRAN and SYRIA. Thus, in my opinion, the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 315” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby the recent strikes in SYRIA by ISRAEL, seem to indicate that the brief ceasefire on the SYRIAN border is over, as ISRAEL seems to be going back to operations as usual whereby to the extent ISRAEL identifies an IRANIAN danger, ISRAEL reserves the right to deviate from its understandings with RUSSIA, by exercising its right to respond accordingly with force, hence ISRAEL seems to be sending the message to IRAN that ISRAEL’s goal is to destroy any remaining IRANIAN military presence in SYRIA, even though IRAN has denied the allegations by ISRAEL, that IRAN plans to establish a permanent, broad military strangle hold in SYRIA, including advanced missile factories as well as air and naval bases, as ISRAEL seems to be psychologically traumatized by the idea of IRAN turning SYRIA into its outpost against ISRAEL, albeit the realities that with ISRAEL watching the IRANIANS closely with every move they make and every breath they take, IRAN is significantly limited in its abilities to manoeuvre freely in SYRIA, as ISRAEL seems to have successfully gotten into the IRANIANS heads with shock and awe attacks, combined with punitive sanctions traps, to the point that the IRANIANS in SYRIA appear to have become slightly handicapped.
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 314” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following ISRAEL’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL, threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, while IRAN does not have any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL, as it has become evident that in the MIDDLE EAST, like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess board, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that the only viable method of operation is day to day, depending upon how the opposition chooses to play.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while bolstering investor confidence. Thus, in my opinion, the latest economic warning signs clearly show TURKEY heading in the direction of higher inflation rates, combined with more difficult financial conditions, due to a plunging TURKISH Lira that could quickly slowdown TURKISH economic growth, although the TURKISH finance minister does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system. In my opinion, a quick fix that TURKEY has at its disposal is to respect U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions while TURKEY outright refuses to do so out of TURKISH pride.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with RUSSIAN and IRANIAN leaders in IRAN next week to discuss developments in SYRIA and how to deal with radical ISLAMIC groups who still control the last major opposition holdouts in SYRIA. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see that TURKEY continues to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, IDLIB, which is located near southern TURKEY, is currently subject to significant influence from TURKEY albeit the realities that a massive attack on IDLIB would in essence wipe out TURKISH influence on this last rebel held stronghold. However, given that IDLIB is currently held by AL-QAEDA linked ISLAMIC groups, there is the risk that SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad resorts to chemical weapons to destroy the last remnants of the SYRIAN radical opposition movements. Nonetheless, the U.S. has forewarned the SYRIAN regime that the U.S. will intervene militarily if President Bashar al-Assad uses chemical weapons to recapture IDLIB while Russia accuses the U.S. of looking for a pretext to attack the SYRIAN regime.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state this week that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy. However, in my opinion, the situation with the U.S. imposed sanctions is complicated because IRAQ cannot deal with one person but rather IRAQ must deal with several U.S. institutions that must be consulted but until then, the unilateral U.S. imposed sanctions are so oppressive on IRAQ that it will be extremely difficult for IRAQ to comply.
In regards to ISIS trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, the suicide car bomber that killed at least 11 people and wounded more than a dozen others at a checkpoint in the town of AL-QAIM in the western province of ANBAR in IRAQ is not surprising, as AL-QAIM, which lies some 340 kilometres from the IRAQI capital of Baghdad, was one of the last towns in IRAQ to be controlled by ISIS, although it was recaptured by IRAQI forces in November of 2017. In my opinion, ISIS was trying to send a message to the IRAQI government about how easily ISIS could carry out attacks on a strategic border such as AL-QAIM where foreign U.S. and French forces are stationed in the vicinity. Furthermore, ISIS did send the statement that ISIS could still successfully strike at any time or place in IRAQ regardless of existing security measures in place as the IRAQI checkpoint was being heavily guarded by both IRAQI army soldiers and IRAQI government-backed militiamen. Furthermore, in my opinion, the alleged new audio message released this week of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, calling on his followers to not give up the jihad against their enemy most probably fuelled this bloody attack. Thus, in my opinion, ISIS still represents a significant risk, with around 2,000 ISIS fighters still active in Iraq combined with an ISIS leader that was thought to have been killed several times, but continuing to resurface to fuel attacks, albeit the U.S. offering a $ 25-million reward for information leading to his capture or death.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war. Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see that ISRAEL is now concerned that IRAN may once again consider the idea of going nuclear which could create a spiral effect of other countries, especially SUNNI rivals of IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST, working to develop their own nuclear weapons as well. However, in my opinion, the fact that the entire world is already convinced that ISRAEL has an advanced nuclear capability from land, air and sea, should serve as a major deterrent from IRAN pursuing its own nuclear capabilities, as it would most likely serve little purpose for IRAN against the ISRAELI arsenal, other than symbolic in nature. Thus, although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, in my opinion, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risking self-annihilation for a quick nuclear hit on ISRAEL. In my opinion, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will continue to act with full determination and strength against IRAN’s attempts to station forces and advanced weapons systems in Syria such that perpetual strikes by ISRAEL will continue as long as IRAN and HEZBOLLAH remain in SYRIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions will hurt IRAN economically which may result in reduced financing capabilities by IRAN of its presence in SYRIA as IRANIAN President, Hassan Rouhani, himself stated that many among the IRANIAN people have lost faith in IRAN’s future and strength due to the renewed U.S. imposed financial sanctions. Nonetheless, Iran’s foreign minister branded Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following the ISRAELI warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate. Furthermore, Mohammad Javad Zarif referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in the gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL threatens IRAN, a country without any nuclear weapons, with atomic annihilation.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby in the MIDDLE EAST like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess game, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following the ISRAELI leader’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in the gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, an IRANIAN country without any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 314” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRAN’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, branded ISRAELI Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a warmonger following ISRAEL’s warning that any country, including IRAN, calling for the Jewish state’s destruction could suffer the same fate, while IRAN referred to ISRAEL’s statements as beyond shameless in gall, as a warmonger standing next to an actual nuclear weapons factory in ISRAEL, threatens IRAN with atomic annihilation, while IRAN does not have any nuclear weapons, such that although IRANIANS are a theocracy and pursue extreme objectives including the desire to destroy ISRAEL, the IRANIANS are very calculated, rationale and patient such that they would never risk self-annihilation for a quick hit on ISRAEL, as it has become evident that in the MIDDLE EAST, like elsewhere in the world, there is no more place for the weak who collapse, get destroyed or are completely wiped out from history, while the strong whether good or evil, are the ones who tend to survive, as the strong are the ones who are respected, who form alliances and eventually with whom deals are negotiated, hence ISRAEL, IRAN, SYRIA and HEZBOLLAH are all here to stay, such that the battlefield of the MIDDLE EAST is like a giant chess board, where for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction, such that the only viable method of operation is day to day, depending upon how the opposition chooses to play.
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In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 313” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s involvement across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S., prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while IRAQI protests are not likely to pose serious threat to IRANIAN regime because sporadic and disorganized in nature while IRANIAN government has powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition, as at end of the day it will be Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s way.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 28% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels. In my opinion, a quick fix that TURKEY has at its disposal is to respect U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to free the detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, which could quickly end TURKEY’s Lira weakening crisis due to the effects of U.S. imposed sanctions while TURKEY outright refuses to do so out of TURKISH pride.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded by stating that TURKEY will boycott U.S. electronic products as a result of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. However, this illustrates how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan truly believes that the U.S. is trying to bring TURKEY to its knees economically, while Pastor Andrew Brunson is being used as a smoke screen, although the U.S. truly does not see any substantive evidence that Pastor Andrew Brunson has done anything wrong. Hence, TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, TURKEY’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to ignore the U.S. request although the TURKISH Lira has dropped steadily since the U.S. ordered tariffs on TURKEY in retaliation for the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan floating alternatives for new strategic partnerships, as it is blatantly obvious that TURKEY and the U.S. have not been strategic partners for quite some time. In my opinion, the RUSSIANS represent a viable alternative for TURKEY because RUSSIA’s Gazprom is currently building natural gas pipelines in TURKEY albeit their historical rocky relationship. That is, the relationship between TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan and RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has been on the rocks before when RUSSIA blamed TURKEY for helping to fund ISIS in SYRIA by buying cheap oil that ISIS stole while TURKEY shot down a RUSSIAN plane killing its pilot. In regards to increasing TURKISH strategic partnerships with the E.U., TURKEY is already a low cost, weak currency, manufacturing center for industrial Europe such that the European Central Bank might be forced to conduct operations that essentially increase the value of the TURKISH Lira. In regards to CHINA stepping-in as CHINA is interested in committing TURKEY into CHINA’s Belt and Road initiative at a very strategic geographic point on the Eurasian landmass, TURKEY owns commercial real estate, steel and energy assets that could interest CHINA except that CHINA is known for demanding discounted prices for bail-out financing. In regards to QATAR who already reacted last week by pledging to invest $ 15 billion in TURKISH financial markets and banks, I believe that QATAR will emerge as TURKEY’s preferred new strategic partner due to the close ties TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains with the emir of QATAR, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani. Furthermore, TURKEY maintains troops in QATAR as a defense against Saudi Arabia such that QATAR is most likely to provide financial support to TURKEY.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS this week pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has no choice but to violate sanctions as IRAQ has been placed in a compromising position with its dependence on IRAN to fuel the IRAQI economy.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al Abadi formally request that the U.S. provide certain exemptions to IRAQ on specific critical IRANIAN goods. In my opinion, IRAQ is in a difficult position because IRAQ imports crucial supplies from its ally IRAN but IRAQ’s other major ally is the U.S. that provides security assistance and training. Thus, the formal request by IRAQ represents an important change in political tactics for IRAQI Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi as he initially stated that IRAQ would respect all of the U.S. sanctions except that the uproar by the IRAQI mass population already feeling the impacts of the sanctions could not be ignored. In my opinion, it is not surprising to see the IRANIAN government planning to ask the U.S. for certain waivers as otherwise IRAQ will find itself crippled by the sanctions, triggering a surge in black market activities, which is far worse as the IRAQI government will find itself with liquidity issues as the underground economy kicks-in depriving the IRAQI government of taxes and duties on declared merchandise. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRANIAN cleric, Ahmad Khatami step in and tell worshippers attending EID prayers in TEHRAN, IRAN that U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer for direct talks with leaders in IRAN was not acceptable. IRAN’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also publicly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer of unconditional talks on a new nuclear deal, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less. In my opinion, after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s engagement in SYRIA, IRAN’s involvement in the regional affairs across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S. accordingly. In regards to Ahmad Khatami warning the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, I believe that IRAN will retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ. In my opinion, IRAN seems to be holding back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by the U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and gold as well as IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of the frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens. Furthermore, many IRANIANS are angered with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns as the United Nations estimates that IRAN has spent in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone. However, in my opinion, the IRAQI protests are not likely to pose a serious threat to the IRANIAN regime because the protests are sporadic and disorganized in nature while the IRANIAN government has a powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s engagement in SYRIA, IRAN’s involvement in the regional affairs across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S. accordingly, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by the U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and gold as well as IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of the frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens, albeit many IRANIANS angered with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while the IRAQI protests are not likely to pose a serious threat to the IRANIAN regime because the protests are sporadic and disorganized in nature while the IRANIAN government has a powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 313” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby after the U.S. threw its full support behind its ally ISRAEL by voicing concerns over IRAN’s involvement across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ as well as IRAN’s continued ballistic missile testing, in violation of U.N. resolutions, Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei felt it necessary to blast the U.S., prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to state that If IRAN wants to meet, the U.S. will meet IRAN but if IRAN does not want to meet, the U.S. could not care less, triggering Ahmad Khatami to warn the U.S. that if the U.S. attacks IRAN, U.S. allies in the region including ISRAEL would be targeted, such that IRAN will most likely retaliate with increased attacks on U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST along with intensified interference in all MIDDLE EASTERN conflicts across SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and IRAQ, while IRAN will likely hold back for the moment from a war with ISRAEL because of dire economic circumstances triggered by U.S. sanctions with inflation soaring, IRANIANS hoarding goods and IRANIAN protests increasing around IRAN, as sure signs of frustration and anger of ordinary model law-abiding IRANIAN citizens with IRAN’s excessive spending on foreign campaigns in excess of $ 6 billion per year to finance the SYRIAN regime alone, while IRAQI protests are not likely to pose serious threat to IRANIAN regime because sporadic and disorganized in nature while IRANIAN government has powerful repressive capacity to silence dissent and opposition, as at end of the day it will be Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s way.
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In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 312” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRANIAN’s are fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial losing around half of its value, although IRAN’s pride runs through their veins such that IRANIANS would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions, with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of LEBANON’s Hezbollah further fuelling the flames by stating that IRAN and Hezbollah are stronger than ISRAEL and are thus ready for war, triggering the U.S. congress to give U.S. President Donald Trump the green light to confront IRAN, while forcing RUSSIA to move its forces along the frontier with the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights, as RUSSIA seems to be the only remaining hope to mediate between these archenemies, such that at this stage Pope Francis should consider inviting all leaders to the Vatican, as a neutral safe zone that could potentially result in some divine inspiration, for informal discussions over some IRANIAN Shisha, LEBANESE Arak and ISRAELI Bagels to try to reduce tensions, while reducing the risk of broken bottles over people’s heads, by utilizing plastic alternatives along with reinforced ITALIAN paramilitary units as additional security precautions.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 28% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan outright rejects the idea of raising interest rates to curb 16% inflation rates and to cool an overheated TURKISH economy because he firmly believes that high interest rates are bad for TURKEY regardless of the fact that most economists disagree. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY would need to raise its interest rates by 7% to around 25% in order to bring the economic situation under control while TURKEY prefers to maintain its current interest rate close to 18%. Hence, I believe that there is a risk that the TURKISH Lira totally collapses, the inflation rates sky rocket and the Turkish mass are wandering around with bags of TURKISH Lira trying to buy milk, eggs and a loaf of bread.
In my opinion, the U.S. sanctions imposed on two officials consisting of TURKEY’s Minister of Justice and Minister of Interior Affairs, who both played leading roles behind Pastor Andrew Brunson’s arrest and detention, are warranted as Pastor Andrew Brunson’s unjust detention and continued prosecution by TURKEY is simply unacceptable as it is predicated on circumstantial evidence that would never survive the test of duly applied international laws predicated on substantive evidence. In my opinion, although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison, the U.S. administration should fight for Pastor Andrew Brunson until all charges are dropped. I fully support Pastor Andrew Brunson that he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are clearly different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded by stating that TURKEY will boycott U.S. electronic products as a result of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. However, this illustrates how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan truly believes that the U.S. is trying to bring TURKEY to its knees economically, while Pastor Andrew Brunson is being used as a smoke screen, although the U.S. truly does not see any substantive evidence that Pastor Andrew Brunson has done anything wrong. Hence, TURKEY actually seems to believe that what is deemed circumstantial evidence in international courts of law, and is generally ignored, is adequate for TURKEY to formally lay charges, prosecute and incarcerate accordingly. Unfortunately, as TURKEY and the U.S. continue to argue over the notion of circumstantial evidence, the fight between TURKEY and the U.S. seems to have negatively impacted the currencies of other countries, of particular note the INDIAN rupee, that slid to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar this week. Ironically, RUSSIA, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, SOUTH AFRICA and MEXICO have also seen their currencies fall over the course of the last week, illustrating the new geopolitical realities, whereby no man or woman can afford to function as an independent island.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just recently placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world. Hence, I was not surprised to see U.S. President Donald Trump signing into law a defense policy, which will prohibit the U.S. from selling TURKEY the stealth fighter F-35 jets amid increasing tensions between the U.S. and TURKEY, including an impact assessment report expected to focus on U.S. military operations from the TURKISH Incirlik Air Base, where the U.S. also operates a tactical nuclear storage site, in order to assess the risks presented by TURKEY purchasing the S-400 missile defense system from RUSSIA. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump hit the nail on the head with his concern that if RUSSIA provides the S-400 missile defense system to TURKEY, while TURKEY also flies the F-35 jets, the capabilities and vulnerabilities of the F-35 jets would most probably be shared with RUSSIA and thus give RUSSIA access to U.S. intelligence information in substance, although there would obviously be a confidentiality agreement in fact. In my opinion, ISRAELI officials have obviously voiced their concern over TURKEY’s F-35 jet purchases, as ISRAEL would obviously prefer to be the only country in the Middle East with the F-35 jets to keep its competitive military edge, as there is an obvious fear of the F-35 jets capabilities being leaked to countries such as IRAN, PALESTINE or SYRIA.
Hence, I was not surprised to see TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan publish an article in the New York Times entitled, “How Turkey Sees the Crisis With the US” where TURKEY warned that the ongoing dispute between the so-called NATO allies, could lead to the dissolution of the ties and a shift by TURKEY eastward implying RUSSIA and CHINA. In my opinion, TURKISH President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly voiced his anger over the U.S. refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania, that TURKEY blames for the failed “Coup D’État”, while perpetually voicing TURKEY’s discontent with the U.S. cooperation with the Kurdish YPG in SYRIA, which TURKEY views as an extension of the outlawed Kurdish PKK. Obviously, the U.S. has comparable displeasure with TURKEY over President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan’s massive crackdown on TURKISH civil society, accompanied by the progressive ISLAMIZATION of TURKEY’s institutions, TURKEY’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the PALESTINIAN HAMAS terror group in Gaza which have been blacklisted by most U.S. allies in the Middle East, TURKEY’s closing of eyes that facilitates the operations of ISIS and efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions on behalf of IRAN. Hence, TURKEY and the U.S. look like an old married couple forced to stay together due to circumstances dating back to the formation of the NATO alliance in 1949 when the purpose was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union, today referred to as RUSSIA, that TURKEY seems to be courting as its mistress.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS this week pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has no choice but to violate sanctions for several reasons consisting first that IRAQ needs IRAN’s refined gas as the gas IRAQ receives from IRAN constitutes approximately 20% of the electricity IRAQ produces. Second, IRAQ’s water supplies flows from the EUPHRATES and TIGRIS rivers of IRAN where IRAQ gets almost 98% of its surface water. Third, IRAN has deliberately flooded the IRAQI market with cheap imports such as food that has reduced IRAQI agriculture due to decreasing demand for homegrown IRAQI products that are more expensive. Hence, with around 17,000 ISIS fighters still remaining in IRAQ, it is most probable that ISIS will survive as a reduced covert gangster style organization that could very easily utilize the hardships caused by the U.S. imposed sanctions as a catalyst for rebirth. However, the world must never forget what happened the last time the IRAQIS were fed-up with their government when ISIS controlled huge areas of land in both IRAQ and SYRIA with up to 10 million people living under ISIS’s brutal rule.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, there seems to be a viscous cycle of an eye for an eye transpiring whereby as ISRAEL and the U.S. tighten the noose around IRAN’s neck, IRAN responds by tightening the noose around ISRAEL’s neck by preventing an ISRAEL and HAMAS ceasefire agreement while fuelling the current escalation in violence around the ISRAELI border with the PALESTINIANS. In my opinion, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of LEBANON’s Hezbollah movement statements that IRAN and his IRAN-backed Hezbollah group are stronger than the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and are thus ready for war only adds fuel to the simmering flames. In my opinion, Hezbollah is not afraid of a possible war with ISRAEL such that with an estimated $ 700 million per year received from IRAN, combined with extensive military experience obtained during the SYRIAN war, I would advise ISRAEL and the U.S. not to underestimate IRAN and the IRANIAN-backed Hezbollah group. In my opinion, Hezbollah might not be the strongest army in the Middle East but Hezbollah certainly have the spirit of the warriors, as they do not fear death because they have faith in their cause and the willingness to sacrifice lives to achieve their objectives. Hence, I was not surprised to see the U.S. congress give U.S. President Donald Trump the green light to confront IRAN, with the U.S. goal of confronting IRAN in the region, initially by the U.S. leaving the IRAN deal and putting sanctions back in place on IRAN, although the NDAA also proposes developing a strategy on how to best confront IRAN’s activities in IRAQ, SYRIA, LEBANON, YEMEN and elsewhere. Thus, in my opinion, with all of this back and forth escalating rhetoric, RUSSIA made the right decision to move its forces along the frontier with the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights to help the U.N. peacekeepers to fully restore patrols along the frontier as RUSSIA seems to be the only remaining hope to mediate between the archenemies consisting of IRAN and ISRAEL.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRANIAN’s are fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial losing around half of its value, although IRAN’s pride runs through their veins such that IRANIANS would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions, with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of LEBANON’s Hezbollah further fuelling the flames by stating that IRAN and Hezbollah are stronger than ISRAEL and are thus ready for war, triggering the U.S. congress to give U.S. President Donald Trump the green light to confront IRAN, while forcing RUSSIA to move its forces along the frontier with the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights, as RUSSIA seems to be the only remaining hope to mediate between these archenemies, such that at this stage Pope Francis should consider inviting all leaders to the Vatican, as a neutral safe zone that could potentially result in some divine inspiration, for informal discussions over some IRANIAN shisha, LEBANESE Arak and ISRAELI bagels to try to reduce tensions, while reducing the risk of broken bottles over people’s heads, by utilizing plastic alternatives along with reinforced ITALIAN paramilitary units as additional security precautions.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 312” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby IRANIAN’s are fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial losing around half of its value, although IRAN’s pride runs through their veins such that IRANIANS would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions, with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of LEBANON’s Hezbollah further fuelling the flames by stating that IRAN and Hezbollah are stronger than ISRAEL and are thus ready for war, triggering the U.S. congress to give U.S. President Donald Trump the green light to confront IRAN, while forcing RUSSIA to move its forces along the frontier with the ISRAELI occupied Golan Heights, as RUSSIA seems to be the only remaining hope to mediate between these archenemies, such that at this stage Pope Francis should consider inviting all leaders to the Vatican, as a neutral safe zone that could potentially result in some divine inspiration, for informal discussions over some IRANIAN Shisha, LEBANESE Arak and ISRAELI Bagels to try to reduce tensions, while reducing the risk of broken bottles over people’s heads, by utilizing plastic alternatives along with reinforced ITALIAN paramilitary units as additional security precautions.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News: August 19, 2018
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In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 311” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby there seems to be a vicious cycle of an eye for an eye transpiring as ISRAEL and the U.S. tighten the noose around IRAN’s neck, IRAN responds by tightening the noose around ISRAEL’s neck, by preventing an ISRAEL and HAMAS ceasefire agreement, while fuelling the current escalation in violence around the ISRAELI border with the PALESTINIANS, as HAMAS fire 200 rockets into ISRAEL provoking a military response by ISRAEL, while masses of IRANIANS across the demographic, political and economic spectrum are leaving their homes and going elsewhere in search of basic necessities and employment opportunities, such that I agree with U.S. President Donald Trump’s position that there should be no conditions, other than security, for all participants to meet in a face-to-face meeting with IRAN, to avert an all out catastrophe in the region, as setting up pre-conditions is equivalent to planning to go on a blind date, while having twelve specific criteria that must be met before going, such that IRAN needs to be handled like a blind date by meeting with IRAN without any pre-conditions to see what transpires.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, this week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 28% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. I believe the 28% drop in the TURKISH Lira is mainly due to the U.S. interest rate increases making it more attractive to now hold money in the U.S.; U.S. sanctions against top TURKISH officials resulting in the perceived risk by the financial markets of TURKEY being cut off from international debt markets; and TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements making investing in TURKEY less appealing. In my opinion, there are probably a slew of other reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates without significant drops in current production levels.
In my opinion, the U.S. sanctions imposed on two officials consisting of TURKEY’s Minister of Justice and Minister of Interior Affairs, who both played leading roles behind Pastor Andrew Brunson’s arrest and detention, are warranted as Pastor Andrew Brunson’s unjust detention and continued prosecution by TURKEY is simply unacceptable as it is predicated on circumstantial evidence that would never survive the test of duly applied international laws predicated on substantive evidence. In my opinion, although he currently faces up to 35 years in prison, the U.S. administration should fight for Pastor Andrew Brunson until all charges are dropped. I fully support Pastor Andrew Brunson that he did not engage in any illegal activities and did not have any relations with anyone engaged in such activities as a Christian pastor whose aims are clearly different from both the KURDISH PKK and FETO.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquits Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy although there is no substantive evidence such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. Thus, in my opinion, it is surprising that the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, John Sullivan, and Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister, Sedat Onal, who met this week in an attempt to ease the crisis, were not able to reach any agreement other than discussions will continue. However, in my opinion, this disagreement perfectly illustrates the fundamental difference between TURKEY and the U.S. in the definition of substantive versus circumstantial evidence.
As a friendly reminder, in an unusual show of solidarity with IRAN whereby Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his IRANIAN counterpart Hassan Rouhani that he found the U.S. decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal with IRAN to be wrong, I am not surprised as TURKEY recognizes that the deal was the product of more than a decade of diplomacy whereby the final nuclear agreement signed in July of 2015 by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran represents a milestone that the U.S. has unilaterally decided to withdraw from. Not surprisingly, among the few nations to welcome U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision were ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN’s arch-nemesis in the Middle East. However, ISRAEL and TURKEY relations continued to appear to be soured this week after TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the new ISRAELI nation state law as embodying the spirit of Hitler. In my opinion, the ISRAELI nation state law, which officially recognises ISRAEL as the home for Jewish people, obviously provoked anger amongst ARAB leaders, who expressed their concerns over the possibilities now for discrimination against ARAB citizens while accusing ISRAEL of trying to create an apartheid state.
In my opinion, it is not surprising to see that as ISRAELI and TURKISH relations are strained, so too are the relations between TURKEY and the west, as the U.S. has just placed two TURKISH ministers on the U.S. Global Magnitsky list. In my opinion, being placed on the Global Magnitsky Act that aims to target the worst bullies and thieves around the world, is not something that any self-respecting individual or country would ever want to appear on. However, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to be heading in the direction of closer ties with RUSSIA and CHINA, who seem to be the economic beneficiaries of the widening drift between TURKEY and the U.S. and EUROPE. In my opinion, TURKEY may represent a NATO ally legally but in substance TURKEY looks like an ally in a new Middle East Alliance with RUSSIA and IRAN. As a friendly reminder, it was RUSSIA that allowed the TURKISH military forces to stop the U.S. backed SYRIAN KURDISH forces from uniting their territories into a self-governing entity in SYRIA. Furthermore, it was CHINA that brought TURKEY on board its Belt & Road Initiative to promote practical cooperation on roads, railways, ports, maritime and inland water transport, aviation, energy pipelines, electricity, fibre optics, information and communications technology across the Eurasian territory defined as nations of combined European and Asian descent. However, in my opinion the Eurasian territory today consists of RUSSIA, CHINA, TURKEY and all other countries that cannot find any other common link relating to descent other than a mistrust of the U.S. and the E.U.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, in regards to the analysis of IRAQI election results, it is certain that the IRAQI political structure remains complicated with the biggest number of parliamentary seats of 54 won by the coalition headed by the populist SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a coalition of pro-IRANIAN Shiite parties finishing second with 47 seats while the block led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the U.S. favourite, finishing closely with 42 seats. In my opinion, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr will emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance will emerge such that either way, it seems that the U.S. presence in IRAQ will likely diminish over time. In my opinion, many Americans still remember Moqtada al-Sadr from the post-invasion period of IRAQI history when he commanded a militia that attacked U.S. forces and committed atrocities against the SUNNI population. Ironically, Moqtada al-Sadr never reconciled with the U.S. while contemporaneously having a bitter falling out with IRAN. However, in my opinion, Moqtada al-Sadr seems to now be repositioning IRAQ for closer relations with SAUDI ARABIA that once wrote-off IRAQ as a victory for IRAN while now once again, the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, seems to be courting IRAQI’s SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. In my opinion, last weeks ordering by IRAQ’s parliament of a full recount of IRAQ’s recent parliamentary election that resulted in a shock victory for SHIA leader Muqtada al-Sadr is not surprising as nobody ever expected him to win.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the election results still hang in the backdrop without any conclusive outcome other that the likelihood of a coalition government amongst the three major political players as discussed above, it is obvious that IRAQ now finds itself once again with a weak government at the moment when IRAQ needs to be as strong as possible to cope with the potential for an ISIS re-emergence. In my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ. In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, for the IRAQI consumer, IRANIAN products have the big advantage that they are the cheapest on the market such that it will be difficult for IRAQ to find replacement products at comparable prices. Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAQ ask the U.S. for an exemption to allow imports of IRANIAN spare parts for car assembly facilities in IRAQ as production has ground to a halt with 5,000 jobs in IRAQ on the line. In my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions will most likely be circumvented by the black market, that will likely emerge to meet the IRAQI demand for IRANIAN goods since the border between IRAQ and IRAN runs more than 1,000 kilometres that cannot be controlled by IRAQ in its entirety. Therefore, in my opinion, it would make more sense to impose higher tariffs on IRANIAN goods entering IRAQ, as it seems unfair to punish a struggling IRAQ that depends on cheap IRANIAN imports to drive its own economy.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN sanctions were enforced in an aggressive manner such that inflation, economic instability, currency free-fall and jobs at risk have all led to a sense of despair and outrage growing in IRANIAN streets.
In regards to the difference of opinion between U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo whereby U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated that no preconditions were necessary to have a meeting face-to-face to discuss all matters of difference including the preconditions, while U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is demanding that IRAN agree to twelve pre-conditions prior to a face-to-face meeting, I agree with U.S. President Donald Trump’s position that there should be no conditions other than security for all participants to meet in a face-to-face meeting. In my opinion, there should never be any pre-conditions for face-to-face meetings other than security, in order to prevent a kamikaze or anything else from blowing up during the meeting, as the differences of opinion are so strong that pre-conditions effectively prevent effective communications from the outset. From my point-of-view, setting up pre-conditions is equivalent to planning to go on a blind date, while having twelve specific criteria that must be met before going on that blind date, which is counter logical to the concept of a blind date, which is not knowing anything about the counterparty before the date transpires. In my opinion, IRAN needs to be handled like a blind date in the sense of meeting with IRAN without any pre-conditions other than security and seeing what happens, as otherwise IRAN is not given an opportunity to speak from the outset to present its perspective.
Hence, there seems to be a viscous cycle of an eye for an eye transpiring whereby as ISRAEL and the U.S. tighten the noose around IRAN’s neck, IRAN responds by tightening the noose around ISRAEL’s neck by preventing an ISRAEL and HAMAS ceasefire agreement while fuelling the current escalation in violence around the ISRAELI border with the PALESTINIANS. In my opinion, IRAN, not RUSSIA, is the dominant actor in SYRIA, except that IRAN is always ready, willing and able to work with the RUSSIANS because the RUSSIANS have shown the IRANIANS respect. Furthermore, IRAN controls the SYRIA and IRAQ border along with the SYRIA and LEBANON border crossings such that IRAN cannot be ignored even though ISRAEL wishes that IRAN would completely disappear from the space of the planet. Thus, although IRAN does not acknowledge ISRAEL’s right to exist, ISRAEL does not desire to see IRAN exist as ISRAEL still suspects that IRAN is attempting to create nuclear weapons despite the historic 2015 nuclear agreement which ISRAEL now effectively aims to destroy. Thus, as tensions escalate between IRAN and ISRAEL, the Palestinian HAMAS fire 200 rockets into ISRAEL provoking a military response by ISRAEL. In my opinion, the IRANIANS are making a concerted effort to attack ISRAEL while they still can, as a result of the U.S. sanctions taking effect, as IRAN cannot ignore the protests in IRAN where masses of people from across the demographic, political and economic spectrum are leaving their homes and going elsewhere in search of basic necessities and employment opportunities.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby there seems to be a vicious cycle of an eye for an eye transpiring as ISRAEL and the U.S. tighten the noose around IRAN’s neck, IRAN responds by tightening the noose around ISRAEL’s neck, by preventing an ISRAEL and HAMAS ceasefire agreement, while fuelling the current escalation in violence around the ISRAELI border with the PALESTINIANS, as HAMAS fire 200 rockets into ISRAEL provoking a military response by ISRAEL, while masses of IRANIANS across the demographic, political and economic spectrum are leaving their homes and going elsewhere in search of basic necessities and employment opportunities, such that U.S. President Donald Trump’s position that there should be no conditions other than security for all participants to meet in a face-to-face meeting with IRAN is critical at this stage to avert an all out catastrophe in the region, as setting up pre-conditions is equivalent to planning to go on a blind date, while having twelve specific criteria that must be met before going on that blind date, which is counter logical to the concept of a blind date, which is not knowing anything about the counterparty before the date transpires, as in my opinion, IRAN needs to be handled like a blind date in the sense of meeting with IRAN without any pre-conditions other than security and seeing what happens, as otherwise IRAN is not given an opportunity to speak from the outset to present its perspective.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 311” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace while focusing on the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby there seems to be a vicious cycle of an eye for an eye transpiring as ISRAEL and the U.S. tighten the noose around IRAN’s neck, IRAN responds by tightening the noose around ISRAEL’s neck, by preventing an ISRAEL and HAMAS ceasefire agreement, while fuelling the current escalation in violence around the ISRAELI border with the PALESTINIANS, as HAMAS fire 200 rockets into ISRAEL provoking a military response by ISRAEL, while masses of IRANIANS across the demographic, political and economic spectrum are leaving their homes and going elsewhere in search of basic necessities and employment opportunities, such that I agree with U.S. President Donald Trump’s position that there should be no conditions, other than security, for all participants to meet in a face-to-face meeting with IRAN, to avert an all out catastrophe in the region, as setting up pre-conditions is equivalent to planning to go on a blind date, while having twelve specific criteria that must be met before going, such that IRAN needs to be handled like a blind date by meeting with IRAN without any pre-conditions to see what transpires.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News: August 12, 2018
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