We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING, such that chances are that we may loose some battles along the way.
However, the pain of losing the battle is temporary, while the pain of losing the war lasts forever.
We learn from our battles lost, although we grow from our setbacks encountered along the way, but we never give up on our dreams and the pursuit of our passions because we are never paralyzed by fear.
We are the ones in control of our destiny and we take full ownership of the consequences of our choices but we always remain in the driver’s seat.
We utilize the attacks from our oppositions as springboards to success and thus we always rise higher than before like you can never imagine!
We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING, such that chances are that we may loose some battles along the way.
However, the pain of losing the battle is temporary, while the pain of losing the war lasts forever.
We learn from our battles lost, although we grow from our setbacks encountered along the way, but we never give up on our dreams and the pursuit of our passions because we are never paralyzed by fear.
We are the ones in control of our destiny and we take full ownership of the consequences of our choices but we always remain in the driver’s seat.
We utilize the attacks from our oppositions as springboards to success and thus we always rise higher than before like you can never imagine!
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 326” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY challenged U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), by stating that they were not credible to comic, after he stated publicly that maybe Crown Prince MBS had a hand in the murder, but maybe he did not, although the CIA believes Jamal Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the Crown Prince MBS, on the basis that MBS is SAUDI ARABIA’s de facto ruler, albeit it is blatantly obvious that this conclusion is based on circumstantial evidence, such that it will never hold-up in a court of law, such that either TURKEY needs to produce substantive evidence, or accept that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are innocent, until TURKEY can prove with concrete evidence, other than gossip, rumours and hearsay, that they were directly implicated in the murder, as U.S. President Donald Trump makes no secret that the U.S. would remain a steadfast partner of SAUDI ARABIA, for U.S. trading and defence in conformance with his America First policy, such that the CIA has chosen to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to give them the benefit of the doubt, on the simple basis that if the glove does not fit, one must acquit, as U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted about falling oil prices, while thanking SAUDI ARABIA, without ever mentioning Jamal Khashoggi, that perfectly depicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s style in a nutshell, whereby his decisions are all based on his simple perspective of America First and Make America Great Again.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.
Thus, this week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.
That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued to focus on slashing public spending and a reconciliation with the U.S. administration following the release of detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, that have helped calm down the jittery financial markets. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak’s recent statements sounded reassuring, that although TURKEY faced tremendously serious operating conditions against its TURKISH Lira, interest rates and inflation in August of 2018, TURKEY has managed to turn itself around from these serious economic attacks in only two months. In my opinion, the recent horrible economic period in TURKEY now seems to be over while the positive impacts of the TURKISH government measures on pricing controls should trickle forward and be further evident during November and December.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is over optimistic, as he still foresees a better and stronger economic fiscal year during 2019, while ignoring the fact that the inflation rate that hit a high of 25.2%, is far above the TURKISH central bank’s target rate of 5% for core inflation, after stripping out volatile factors such as energy and food prices. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY still seems to be an attractive country for long-term investors regardless of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowering TURKISH growth forecasts to negative 0.4% this week after the OECD had initially predicted in August that Turkey would grow by 0.5%in 2019. However, in my opinion, the OECD hit the nail on the head that regaining business, household and investor confidence in monetary and fiscal policies will be crucial for TURKEY to reverse the anticipated negative growth.
In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has immediately stabilized by recently releasing U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. Furthermore, in my opinion TURKEY’s position as outlined by TURKEY’s science and industry minister, Mustafa Varank, is the best strategic option for TURKEY, whereby while global trade wars loom, TURKEY is seeking new cooperation in which both sides benefit. In my opinion, Mustafa hit the nail on the head that a collective effort is needed to revive trade and production, with TURKISH focus on structural reforms to production with optimization, indigenization to transform goods and services to better suit local TURKISH culture, technology production and branding. In my opinion, TURKEY’s track record for creating an investor-friendly environment has improved significantly over the last couple of months, as TURKEY’s priorities seem to be going against the global trend of protectionism, towards global economic cooperation. In my opinion, TURKEY has made the right strategic decision to divert from the global trend of protectionism to economic cooperation, as this will be the driving factor for TURKEY to pull itself out of its 2018 economic slump. Thus, in my opinion, it was not by accident that Turkey recently ranked 17’th, up from 43’rd, on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index, as its recent business symposium was attended by over 8,000 people from over 100 countries including Germany, France, Netherlands, China, Malaysia, Pakistan, UAE and Nigeria.
Nonetheless, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA recently indicated that TURKEY will be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.
Therefore, in my opinion, last week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to last week’s concerns, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going.
However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, I was not surprised to see last week, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) had been placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see the TURKISH defense minister and intelligence chief visit RUSSIA’s coastal city of SOCHI for high-level talks with RUSSIAN officials on IDLIB. In my opinion, it is blatantly obvious that priority focus should be on taking swift actions to support a demilitarized zone in IDLIB, in which acts of aggression are expressly prohibited, as HTS and HAD rebels have crossed the demilitarized zone lines on multiple occasions, such that RUSSIA needs to send the message via RUSSIAN air force powers, that anyone who crosses the demilitarized zone borderlines, will pay through the nose for their disrespect of this safe-zone.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN, in line with its long-term supply contracts, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. In my opinion, TURKEY has made it clear that the U.S. imposed sanctions will be ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas, such that economic necessities will take precedence over politics. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts this week of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA, this is definitely a step in the right direction for peace in the KURDISTAN region of SYRIA. In regards to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar, it is obvious that both TURKEY and CHINA are furious at recent imposed U.S. tariffs such that they will engage in transactions in domestic currencies in an attempt to weaken the demand for U.S. Dollars. In regards to GERMANY needing TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing, TURKEY is leveraging GERMANY perfectly to fuel its economic needs. In regards to TURKEY having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar, with the goal that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency come to an end, I am not surprised to see RUSSIA pushing against the U.S. Dollar as RUSSIA perceives that a weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar will trigger an increased demand for the RUSSIAN Ruble and TURKISH Lira.
In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo was obligated to meet with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week in order to try to resolve the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. In my opinion, such an operation would have required the informal blessing of the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince, albeit obviously innocent until proven guilty, albeit likely will never be proven guilty as there is probably no substantive evidence to prove such a direct link to the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince. Nonetheless, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities allowed media leaks to the international press, whereby the latest reports indicate that Jamal Khashoggi’s body parts had been found in the garden of SAUDI ARABIA’s consul general’s home in ISTANBUL, TURKEY while a body double put on Jamal Khashoggi’s clothes shortly after he was killed, as a decoy to divert attention from the killing inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy.
In my opinion, it was not surprising to see TURKEY challenge U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), by stating that they were not credible to comic, after he stated publicly that maybe Crown Prince MBS had a hand in the murder, but maybe he did not. In my opinion, although the CIA believes Jamal Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), on the basis that MBS is SAUDI ARABIA’s de facto ruler, it is blatantly obvious that this conclusion is based on circumstantial evidence such that it will never hold-up in a court of law. Therefore, either TURKEY needs to produce substantive evidence or accept that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are innocent, until TURKEY can prove with concrete evidence, other than gossip, rumours and hearsay, that they were directly implicated in the murder. In my opinion, it was not surprising for U.S. President Donald Trump to make it no secret that the U.S. would remain a steadfast partner of SAUDI ARABIA for U.S. trading and defence in conformance with his America First policy. Therefore, in my opinion although the CIA knows very well that the gossip, rumours and hearsay, probably have some truth behind them, in the sense that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family probably knew that something would go down, the CIA has chosen to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to give them the benefit of the doubt, on the simple basis that if the glove does not fit, one must acquit. In regards to U.S. President Donald Trump tweeting about falling oil prices, while thanking Saudi Arabia, without ever mentioning Jamal Khashoggi, this in my opinion perfectly depicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s style in a nutshell, whereby his decisions are all based on his simple perspective of America First and Make America Great Again.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government by early November. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor representing a step in the right direction given that a clear majority acclaimed Barham Salih. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as a growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see tensions once again high in IRAQ this week as IRAQ focused on securing its border with SYRIA as IRAQ’s Air Force conducted airstrikes against ISIS positions across the border in SYRIA, that destroyed a weapons depot and buildings housing ISIS terrorists in SUSAH and AL-BAGHUZ. In my opinion, IRAQ will continue to take all necessary military measures required to safeguard IRAQ’s borders, national security and IRAQI citizens. Therefore, I expect to see IRAQ continue to conduct cross-border airstrikes, whenever deemed necessary for security, as it is no secret that ISIS militants have been mainly pushed back into one last major pocket of territory in the Euphrates River valley on the SYRIAN side of the border. In regards to Muqtada al-Sadr stating that MOSUL is once again in danger, as ISIS terrorist cells are still active in the city, such that corrupt individuals are taking advantage of the ISIS situation, for personal rewards, I am not at all surprised as ISIS terrorist cells still continue to wage hit-and-run attacks in MOSUL that would require insider traitors to effectively execute. Thus, due to deadly strings of attacks that hit the BAGHDAD capital, MOSUL and TIKRIT, it is obvious that the IRAQI forces may have won the war against ISIS back in December of 2017, but they have not yet fully won their security, explaining why the reconstruction of liberated cities or the return of displaced families has not yet transpired.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war.
Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties.
However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully. Therefore, in my opinion, this week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to this week’s concerns, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going. However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, I was not surprised to see last week, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) had been placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. Thus, this week, I was not surprised to see the TURKISH defense minister and intelligence chief visit RUSSIA’s coastal city of SOCHI for high-level talks with RUSSIAN officials on IDLIB. In my opinion, it is blatantly obvious that priority focus should be on taking swift actions to support a demilitarized zone in IDLIB, in which acts of aggression are expressly prohibited, as HTS and HAD rebels have crossed the demilitarized zone lines on multiple occasions, such that RUSSIA needs to send the message via RUSSIAN air force powers, that anyone who crosses the demilitarized zone borderlines, will pay through the nose for their disrespect of this safe-zone.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that are still scheduled to come back into full force in November. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.
However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. However, it was not surprising to see TURKEY challenge U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), by stating that they were not credible to comic, after he stated publicly that maybe Crown Prince MBS had a hand in the murder, but maybe he did not. In my opinion, although the CIA believes Jamal Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), on the basis that MBS is SAUDI ARABIA’s de facto ruler, it is blatantly obvious that this conclusion is based on circumstantial evidence such that it will never hold-up in a court of law. Therefore, either TURKEY needs to produce substantive evidence or accept that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are innocent, until TURKEY can prove with concrete evidence, other than gossip, rumours and hearsay, that they were directly implicated in the murder. In my opinion, it was not surprising for U.S. President Donald Trump to make it no secret that the U.S. would remain a steadfast partner of SAUDI ARABIA for U.S. trading and defence in conformance with his America First policy. Therefore, in my opinion although the CIA knows very well that the gossip, rumours and hearsay, probably have some truth behind them, in the sense that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family probably knew that something would go down, the CIA has chosen to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to give them the benefit of the doubt, on the simple basis that if the glove does not fit, one must acquit. In regards to U.S. President Donald Trump tweeting about falling oil prices, while thanking Saudi Arabia, without ever mentioning Jamal Khashoggi, this in my opinion perfectly depicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s style in a nutshell, whereby his decisions are all based on his simple perspective of America First and Make America Great Again.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY challenged U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), by stating that they were not credible to comic, after he stated publicly that maybe Crown Prince MBS had a hand in the murder, but maybe he did not, although the CIA believes Jamal Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), on the basis that MBS is SAUDI ARABIA’s de facto ruler, it is blatantly obvious that this conclusion is based on circumstantial evidence, such that it will never hold-up in a court of law, such that either TURKEY needs to produce substantive evidence, or accept that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are innocent, until TURKEY can prove with concrete evidence, other than gossip, rumours and hearsay, that they were directly implicated in the murder, as U.S. President Donald Trump makes no secret that the U.S. would remain a steadfast partner of SAUDI ARABIA, for U.S. trading and defence in conformance with his America First policy, such that although the CIA knows very well that the gossip, rumours and hearsay, probably have some truth behind them, the CIA has chosen to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to give them the benefit of the doubt, on the simple basis that if the glove does not fit, one must acquit, as U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted about falling oil prices, while thanking Saudi Arabia, without ever mentioning Jamal Khashoggi, that perfectly depicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s style in a nutshell, whereby his decisions are all based on his simple perspective of America First and Make America Great Again.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 326” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY challenged U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), by stating that they were not credible to comic, after he stated publicly that maybe Crown Prince MBS had a hand in the murder, but maybe he did not, although the CIA believes Jamal Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the Crown Prince MBS, on the basis that MBS is SAUDI ARABIA’s de facto ruler, albeit it is blatantly obvious that this conclusion is based on circumstantial evidence, such that it will never hold-up in a court of law, such that either TURKEY needs to produce substantive evidence, or accept that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are innocent, until TURKEY can prove with concrete evidence, other than gossip, rumours and hearsay, that they were directly implicated in the murder, as U.S. President Donald Trump makes no secret that the U.S. would remain a steadfast partner of SAUDI ARABIA, for U.S. trading and defence in conformance with his America First policy, such that the CIA has chosen to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to give them the benefit of the doubt, on the simple basis that if the glove does not fit, one must acquit, as U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted about falling oil prices, while thanking SAUDI ARABIA, without ever mentioning Jamal Khashoggi, that perfectly depicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s style in a nutshell, whereby his decisions are all based on his simple perspective of America First and Make America Great Again.
We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING, such that chances are that we may loose some battles along the way.
However, the pain of losing the battle is temporary, while the pain of losing the war lasts forever.
We learn from our battles lost, although we grow from our setbacks encountered along the way, but we never give up on our dreams and the pursuit of our passions because we are never paralyzed by fear.
We are the ones in control of our destiny and we take full ownership of the consequences of our choices but we always remain in the driver’s seat.
We utilize the attacks from our oppositions as springboards to success and thus we always rise higher than before like you can never imagine!
We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING.
Ivan Cindric, the founder of THE ROCK’S Web Market, was born into a modest humble family in Montreal, Quebec, Canada although he was brought up old school traditional Croatian style with strong values, morals, principals and ethics.
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Ivan, during his challenging twenty-year period in the Finance industry worked closely with both medium sized and large multinational public organizations and mastered the art of thinking outside of the box.
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We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING, such that chances are that we may loose some battles along the way.
However, the pain of losing the battle is temporary, while the pain of losing the war lasts forever.
We learn from our battles lost, although we grow from our setbacks encountered along the way, but we never give up on our dreams and the pursuit of our passions because we are never paralyzed by fear.
We are the ones in control of our destiny and we take full ownership of the consequences of our choices but we always remain in the driver’s seat.
We utilize the attacks from our oppositions as springboards to success and thus we always rise higher than before like you can never imagine!
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 325” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as more gruesome details emerged that Jamal Khashoggi’s killers carried syringes, electro-shock devices and cutting tools as they left ISTANBUL, TURKEY, although there was not yet any evidence of a bone saw, that would have been required, to dismember Jamal Khashoggi’s body, while the SAUDI ARABIAN hit men were recorded phoning SAUDI ARABIA after murdering Jamal Khashoggi and saying tell your boss, in a possible reference to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who is widely rumoured to have ordered the hit, is nothing more than circumstantial evidence, as SAUDI ARABIAN officials and their western partners are now bracing for the release of the TURKISH recordings, that could further damage relations between SAUDI ARABIA and its western backers, such that TURKEY seems to be slowly leaking details of the investigation, in an attempt to keep the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the headlines in the world press, while maintaining economic pressure on SAUDI ARABIA, a regional rival TURKEY hopes to weaken by this scandal, albeit the realities that Crown Prince MBS was not implicated in the gruesome murder, although 21 people are now in custody, with 11 indicted and referred to trial, while the prosecution is seeking the death penalty for 5 officials who gave the orders and oversaw the execution of the murder, such that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal family seem to have effectively washed their hands clean, as all evidence tying them to the murder is circumstantial in nature, such that cannot form basis for any formal allegations.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
This week’s focus in TURKEY seemed to shift to the TURKISH struggling economy, largely attributable to a lack of confidence by foreign investors, due largely to TURKEY’s repressive crackdown measures on all opposition movements. In my opinion, over the last two years, TURKEY has been radically transformed with emergency measures used to consolidate authoritarian powers, silence opposition voices and take away basic human rights and civil liberties. However, the behaviours of TURKEY’s governing AKP seem to be taking their toll on the TURKISH economy, as turbulent politics have resulted in economic turmoil, whereby the sliding TURKISH Lira has set-off alarm bells across TURKEY, as businesses struggle to cope with the financial impacts of a declining TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blaming the rest of the world for waging an economic war against TURKEY, while most reputable economists would tend to agree that the TURKISH government has forced their central banks to follow counterproductive, if not destructive, economic policies is a sure sign that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is living in a delusional reality.
In my opinion, the underlying problem is that TURKISH banks and companies borrowed a lot of U.S. dollars, as TURKISH foreign currency debt represents about 30% of TURKEY’s GDP, such that TURKEY is now struggling to pay down the debt as the TURKISH Lira is falling. In my opinion, TURKEY’s economy is struggling in large part due to the TURKISH Lira losing almost 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. In my opinion, there are a slew of reasons dissuading investors from TURKEY, but at the end of the day, many investors continue to try to liquidate their TURKISH Lira given that it has been dropping fast since the beginning of the year. Thus, the solution from my point-of-view is quite obvious, that TURKEY needs to raise interest rates in order to counter its problems of high inflation and a declining TURKISH Lira, while its economy should be able to bear the brunt of higher interest rates, without significant drops in current production levels.
Thus, this week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans.
That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued to focus on slashing public spending and a reconciliation with the U.S. administration following the release of detained American Pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, that have helped calm down the jittery financial markets. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak’s recent statements sounded reassuring, that although TURKEY faced tremendously serious operating conditions against its TURKISH Lira, interest rates and inflation in August of 2018, TURKEY has managed to turn itself around from these serious economic attacks in only two months. In my opinion, the recent horrible economic period in TURKEY now seems to be over while the positive impacts of the TURKISH government measures on pricing controls should trickle forward and be further evident during November and December.
In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is over optimistic, as he still foresees a better and stronger economic fiscal year during 2019, while ignoring the fact that the inflation rate that hit a high of 25.2%, is far above the TURKISH central bank’s target rate of 5% for core inflation, after stripping out volatile factors such as energy and food prices. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKEY still seems to be an attractive country for long-term investors with TURKEY’s strong economic fundamentals, flexible private sector and young population. Furthermore, in my opinion, the fact that the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) still sees opportunities in several sectors in TURKEY to invest because of the long-term potential of TURKEY, should be reassuring to all foreign investors. Furthermore, the IFC has shown sure signs that the IFC plans to stay in TURKEY for the long-term, with IFC’s total investments in TURKEY in the last 55 years reaching around $15 billion while the IFC currently has a significant amount of $1.1 billion capital in long-term investments and the IFC has provided around $800 million in trade finance last year.
In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has immediately stabilized by releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which represents a relatively quick economic fix, such that finally Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put the debate of application of justice aside for a quick fix to the TURKISH economy, as the U.S. does not recognize the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations. Furthermore, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak did the right strategic move this week by reassuring investors and markets that TURKEY’s economy was strong enough, to withstand economic attacks, and that TURKEY foresees a better and stronger economic fiscal year during 2019.
Nonetheless, it seems that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be forced to turn to the E.U., although TURKEY’s bid for E.U. membership has all but expired, as TURKEY will seem to be forced to return to GERMANY to finance TURKISH short-tern needs. However, in my opinion, any E.U. aid is unlikely to be enough while the pledge by QATAR to invest $ 15 billion during the upcoming year seems to have had very little favourable impact on the TURKISH Lira. In my opinion, as inflation rates rise, the TURKISH central bank will be forced to raise interest rates shortly to halt the TURKISH Lira’s free-fall, albeit any interest rate hike may be too little and too late. Thus, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s belief that interest rates are the mother and father of all evil, as a cause of inflation, will now likely result in TURKEY being forced to go to the IMF for bail-out financing although TURKEY continues to rule out this option on the basis that IMF financing represents an unacceptable surrender of TURKISH sovereignty.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA recently to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA recently indicated that TURKEY will be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully.
Therefore, in my opinion, last week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to last week’s concerns, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going. However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, the Syrian Minister of State for National Reconciliation Affairs, Ali Haidar, stated the obvious that it was still premature to talk about a reconciliation process in the province of IDLIB since the situation in the militant-held regions remains fragile. Thus, I was not surprised to see this week, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) have been placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. In my opinion, the NLF made the necessary decision to ready their troops for war after reports surfaced of SAA personnel moving their troops towards their IDLIB borderlines.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that TURKEY would continue to buy natural gas from IRAN, in line with its long-term supply contracts, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to punish countries doing business with IRAN. In my opinion, TURKEY has made it clear that the U.S. imposed sanctions will be ignored, as TURISH people cannot afford to heat their homes without purchasing IRAN’s natural gas, such that economic necessities will take precedence over politics. In regards to TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued with his juggling acts this week of competing interests as the first batch of U.S. military personnel arrived in TURKEY to join the training mission for joint patrol activities in MANBIJ, SYRIA, this is definitely a step in the right direction for peace in the KURDISTAN region of SYRIA. In regards to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussing more trade in their local currencies, while avoiding the U.S. dollar, it is obvious that both TURKEY and CHINA are furious at recent imposed U.S. tariffs such that they will engage in transactions in domestic currencies in an attempt to weaken the demand for U.S. Dollars. In regards to GERMANY needing TURKEY’s cooperation in halting the flow of ISIS fighters, currently hiding in SYRIA, while TURKEY needs GERMAN technology, investment and financing, TURKEY is leveraging GERMANY perfectly to fuel its economic needs. In regards to TURKEY having an affair with RUSSIA, as RUSSIA joined TURKEY in avoiding the U.S. dollar, with the goal that the reign of the U.S. dollar as the global trade currency come to an end, I am not surprised to see RUSSIA pushing against the U.S. Dollar as RUSSIA perceives that a weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar will trigger an increased demand for the RUSSIAN Ruble and TURKISH Lira.
In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo was obligated to meet with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week in order to try to resolve the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. In my opinion, such an operation would have required the informal blessing of the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince, albeit obviously innocent until proven guilty, albeit likely will never be proven guilty as there is probably no substantive evidence to prove such a direct link to the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince. Nonetheless, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities allowed media leaks to the international press, whereby the latest reports indicate that Jamal Khashoggi’s body parts had been found in the garden of SAUDI ARABIA’s consul general’s home in ISTANBUL, TURKEY while a body double put on Jamal Khashoggi’s clothes shortly after he was killed, as a decoy to divert attention from the killing inside the SAUDI ARABIAN embassy.
In my opinion, TURKEY has gone to such great lengths to put, and keep, pressure on SAUDI ARABIA because the murder happened in TURKEY that is embarrassing for TURKEY’s government. However, more importantly, TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA have been locked in years-long battles for the future of the MIDDLE EAST, particularly over the importance of religion and WESTERN influence in MIDDLE EASTERN politics, such that blasting SAUDI ARABIA over the Khashoggi scandal, specifically Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), SAUDI ARABIA’s leader, is to TURKEY’s advantage as it gives TURKEY a critical advantage in the struggle for geopolitical supremacy in the MIDDLE EAST. Thus, I was not surprised this week to see more gruesome details emerging this week that Jamal Khashoggi’s killers carried syringes, electro-shock devices and cutting tools as they left ISTANBUL, TURKEY, although there was not yet any evidence of a bone saw, that would have been required, to dismember Jamal Khashoggi’s body. However, in my opinion, the SAUDI ARABIAN hit men recorded phoning SAUDI ARABIA after murdering Jamal Khashoggi and saying tell your boss, in a possible reference to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who is widely rumoured to have ordered the hit, is nothing more than circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN officials and their western partners are now bracing for the release of the TURKISH recordings, that could further damage relations between SAUDI ARABIA and its western backers, such that TURKEY seems to be slowly leaking details of the investigation, in an attempt to keep the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the headlines in the world press, while maintaining economic pressure on SAUDI ARABIA, a regional rival TURKEY hopes to weaken by this scandal.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, with ISIS inevitably nearing its downfall in IRAQ, IRAQI security forces need to be prepared for a different kind of war against ISIS, shifting away from ground offensives to intelligence work and surgical airstrikes to counter an expected move by ISIS away from holding territory and back to a more terrorist role of a dispersed underground terror organization. In my opinion, ISIS is already laying the groundwork for a new terrorist strategy of hiding in remote areas, carrying out attacks in IRAQ and abroad and resorting to organized crime to bankroll future operations. In addition, in my opinion, IRAQ will need political support to get the SUNNIS back into the government in IRAQ otherwise IRAQ will end up with a new set of extremists in IRAQ as if the SUNNIS are brought back into the IRAQI political system, that will be the end of ISIS while if the opposite happens, then IRAQ could see the emergence of new terrorist groups having a similar agenda as ISIS.
As a friendly reminder, either a coalition under Moqtada al-Sadr was expected to emerge or a pro-IRANIAN coalition under the Fatah Alliance was expected to emerge such that either way, it seemed that the U.S. presence in IRAQ would likely diminish over time. Ironically, after months of negotiations, Barham Salih was voted by parliament into the position of President with his first act naming Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, conditional upon his formation of a government by early November. Thus, it seems that the results of the elections were bypassed for the benefit of stability, as this new duo represents the old IRAQI regime, as both have been active in IRAQI politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. That is, President Barham Salih was previously deputy prime minister of IRAQ and Prime Minister of IRAQI Kurdistan while Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was formerly vice president of IRAQ and more recently oil minister. Thus, in my opinion, the election of President Barham Salih, a KURD, and his nomination of Adil Abdul-Mahdi to be prime minister, a Shiite, seems to have broken months of political deadlock in IRAQ after an inconclusive May election result that everybody seems to have agreed to scrap. Nonetheless, with IRAQ’s prime minister-designate Adel Abdul Mahdi presenting his new cabinet to the IRAQI parliament for approval, although he has no parliamentary block of his own to stand on, and is thus dependent on the blocks of cleric MUQTADA AL-SADR and pro-IRANIAN militia leader HADI AL-AMIRI for his position, Adel Abdul Mahdi will most likely not be able to control IRAQI corruption or challenge existing underlying militia influences in IRAQ.
In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor representing a step in the right direction given that a clear majority acclaimed Barham Salih. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as a growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.
In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.
Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see tensions once again high in IRAQ this week as reports surfaced that IRAQI forces along with the U.S. military killed more than 50 ISIS militants, including several commanders, in northern IRAQ recently. In my opinion, the recent operation in SALAHUDDIN province, whereby five ISIS leaders were killed and more than 30 other ISIS militants were injured, along with an operation in the MAKHMOUR MOUNTAINS, whereby around 20 ISIS fighters were killed, was critical to quell the recent momentum gained by ISIS in the region. That is, although IRAQ declared victory over ISIS last year, the ISIS group has continued to carry out scattered attacks, particularly in the northern regions of IRAQ, such that the IRAQI military along with U.S. support is critical to prevent any significant resurgence of ISIS in IRAQ. In regards to hundreds of IRAQI ISIS militants at DEIR AL-ZOR, in eastern SYRIA, trying to cross into IRAQ, I am not surprised to see ISIS militants trying to take back control of parts of the DEIR AL-ZOR border on the IRAQI side, as this represents a critical life line for ISIS between SYRIA and IRAQ. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQI forces must utilize any and all means necessary in order to hold back ISIS militant attempts to infiltrate the border and cross into IRAQ. Thus, in my opinion, DEIR AL-ZOR now represents a high risk area for ISIS infiltration after ISIS’s military defeat in IRAQ in 2017, which clearly shows ISIS reverting to militia insurgency tactics, such as bombings and attacks as recently experienced by IRAQI security forces, in northern NINEVEH and northeastern DIYALA provinces of IRAQ.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
As a friendly reminder, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) along with its RUSSIAN ally recently focused their attention on the southern province of DERAA where they have intensified their bombing campaign after a ceasefire deal between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and the Russians broke down. I was not surprised to see the intensification of air raids as SYRIAN troops have vowed to advance steadily to recapture lost territory until such time as a ceasefire agreement is negotiated. Thus, I was not surprised when SAA government forces retook a town that was at the heart of the SYRIAN civil war as SAA government forces raised the SYRIAN flag in the birthplace of the SYRIAN war.
Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties.
However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully. Therefore, in my opinion, this week’s actions by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to consolidate power in northern SYRIA with waves of arrests of civilians was irresponsible and on the verge of insane. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to give the HTS rebels one last warning to leave the designated RUSSIA and TURKEY designated demilitarized zone. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the right strategic decision by warning HTS rebels that if they refuse to leave the designated demilitarized zone, TURKEY will allow the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force to resume their operations against them in SYRIA. In regards to this week’s concerns, as two of the largest terrorist groups in IDLIB clashed consisting of HTS rebels and their allies from the Hurras Al-Deen (HAD) organization, I am surprised to see that HAD got the upper hand to control the checkpoint from HTS, for which the clashes took place and are still on-going. However, given that these clashes represent infighting as both of these terrorist groups have fought together against the SAA, prior to this firefight, I would let them go at each other. In my opinion, the Syrian Minister of State for National Reconciliation Affairs, Ali Haidar, stated the obvious that it was still premature to talk about a reconciliation process in the province of IDLIB since the situation in the militant-held regions remains fragile. Thus, I was not surprised to see this week, that the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF) have been placed on high alert in the IDLIB province after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began moving their troops to the front-lines near the demilitarized zone. In my opinion, the NLF made the necessary decision to ready their troops for war after reports surfaced of SAA personnel moving their troops towards their IDLIB borderlines.
Meanwhile, in regards to this week’s escalation of tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, last week’s announcement by RUSSIA that IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights should be welcomed as a positive development although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, this week tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency which has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The new sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.
Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that are still scheduled to come back into full force in November. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.
However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. However, I was not surprised this week to see more gruesome details emerging that Jamal Khashoggi’s killers carried syringes, electro-shock devices and cutting tools as they left ISTANBUL, TURKEY, although there was not yet any evidence of a bone saw, that would have been required, to dismember Jamal Khashoggi’s body. However, in my opinion, the SAUDI ARABIAN hit men recorded phoning SAUDI ARABIA after murdering Jamal Khashoggi and saying tell your boss, in a possible reference to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who is widely rumoured to have ordered the hit, is nothing more than circumstantial evidence. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN officials and their western partners are now bracing for the release of the TURKISH recordings, that could further damage relations between SAUDI ARABIA and its western backers, such that TURKEY seems to be slowly leaking details of the investigation, in an attempt to keep the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the headlines in the world press, while maintaining economic pressure on SAUDI ARABIA, a regional rival TURKEY hopes to weaken by this scandal.
In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while subsequently being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as more gruesome details emerged that Jamal Khashoggi’s killers carried syringes, electro-shock devices and cutting tools as they left ISTANBUL, TURKEY, although there was not yet any evidence of a bone saw, that would have been required, to dismember Jamal Khashoggi’s body, while the SAUDI ARABIAN hit men recorded phoning SAUDI ARABIA after murdering Jamal Khashoggi and saying tell your boss, in a possible reference to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who is widely rumoured to have ordered the hit, is nothing more than circumstantial evidence, as SAUDI ARABIAN officials and their western partners are now bracing for the release of the TURKISH recordings, that could further damage relations between SAUDI ARABIA and its western backers, such that TURKEY seems to be slowly leaking details of the investigation, in an attempt to keep the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the headlines in the world press, while maintaining economic pressure on SAUDI ARABIA, a regional rival TURKEY hopes to weaken by this scandal, albeit the realities that Crown Prince MBS was not implicated in the gruesome murder, although 21 people are now in custody, with 11 indicted and referred to trial, while the prosecution is seeking the death penalty for 5 officials who gave the orders and oversaw the execution of the murder.
In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 325” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as more gruesome details emerged that Jamal Khashoggi’s killers carried syringes, electro-shock devices and cutting tools as they left ISTANBUL, TURKEY, although there was not yet any evidence of a bone saw, that would have been required, to dismember Jamal Khashoggi’s body, while the SAUDI ARABIAN hit men were recorded phoning SAUDI ARABIA after murdering Jamal Khashoggi and saying tell your boss, in a possible reference to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who is widely rumoured to have ordered the hit, is nothing more than circumstantial evidence, as SAUDI ARABIAN officials and their western partners are now bracing for the release of the TURKISH recordings, that could further damage relations between SAUDI ARABIA and its western backers, such that TURKEY seems to be slowly leaking details of the investigation, in an attempt to keep the Jamal Khashoggi murder in the headlines in the world press, while maintaining economic pressure on SAUDI ARABIA, a regional rival TURKEY hopes to weaken by this scandal, albeit the realities that Crown Prince MBS was not implicated in the gruesome murder, although 21 people are now in custody, with 11 indicted and referred to trial, while the prosecution is seeking the death penalty for 5 officials who gave the orders and oversaw the execution of the murder, such that the Crown Prince MBS and the royal family seem to have effectively washed their hands clean, as all evidence tying them to the murder is circumstantial in nature, such that cannot form basis for any formal allegations.
We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING.
Ivan Cindric, the founder of THE ROCK’S Web Market, was born into a modest humble family in Montreal, Quebec, Canada although he was brought up old school traditional Croatian style with strong values, morals, principals and ethics.
Ivan, with a CPA Auditor, CA from Quebec, Canada and CPA from Illinois, U.S.A., spent over twenty years of his career mastering the art of Finance, Accounting and Project Management and developed the skills and abilities to convert complex and abstract information needs into tangible, practical and simple day-to-day processes and solutions.
Ivan, during his challenging twenty-year period in the Finance industry worked closely with both medium sized and large multinational public organizations and mastered the art of thinking outside of the box.
However, after an initial 15 year period of perpetual, formidable and incredible successes, Ivan found himself struggling from 2010 culminating in 2016, when the founder of THE ROCK’S Web Market made a New Year’s resolution to utilize his complimentary skills, knowledge and talents to create the revolutionary automated digital web-based social media marketing system called THE ROCK’S Web Market.
Inspired by efficiency and effectiveness for automated digital web-based social media marketing management in the new digital era, THE ROCK’S Web Market was created:
·To provide a seamless, on-line, just-in-time, automated digital web-based social media marketing system to satisfy social media marketing requirements of an organization; ·To integrate the best of traditional social media marketing onto an automated digital web-based platform; & ·To take into account the latest automated digital web-based social media marketing trends and techniques.
Over the years, Ivan, the social media magician and trendsetter, improved upon his traditional marketing framework to develop a leading edge social media framework for web-based marketing to attract attention to THE ROCK’S Web Market which is now adaptable to any size organization and any type of IT infrastructure across the globe.
We are doing something GREAT, AMAZING and OUTSTANDING, such that chances are that we may loose some battles along the way.
However, the pain of losing the battle is temporary, while the pain of losing the war lasts forever.
We learn from our battles lost, although we grow from our setbacks encountered along the way, but we never give up on our dreams and the pursuit of our passions because we are never paralyzed by fear.
We are the ones in control of our destiny and we take full ownership of the consequences of our choices but we always remain in the driver’s seat.
We utilize the attacks from our oppositions as springboards to success and thus we always rise higher than before like you can never imagine!
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