World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 321

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 321

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 321” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, because he realized that in order to successfully confront IRAN, with the potentially crippling global embargo on IRANIAN oil, set to take effect on November 5, 2018, the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIA to compensate for IRANIAN oil shortfalls on the international markets, as otherwise the outcome could be a worldwide oil shock, with rapidly rising prices and massive negative impacts on international markets and trade, demonstrating how U.S. President, Donald Trump operates politically just like he did in business; with the philosophy of there are no friends in business but rather only related interests, hence, although gossip and rumours have been circulating abound via social media, that nobody honestly believes the high-risk assassination of Jamal Khashoggi was undertaken without the prior knowledge of SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, U.S. President, Donald Trump, did not sanction him nor SAUDI ARABIA as this would obviously destroy U.S. President, Donald Trump’s entire IRANIAN strategy.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately this week, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, the TURKISH government’s efforts to curtail inflation are more likely to hurt the TURKISH economy than help it because it will require police efforts in order to enforce this economic policy.

In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has immediately stabilized by releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which represents a relatively quick economic fix, such that finally Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put the debate of application of justice aside for a quick fix to the TURKISH economy, as the U.S. does not recognize the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.

In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo was obligated to meet with TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week in order to try to resolve the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. In my opinion, such an operation would have required the informal blessing of the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince, albeit obviously innocent until proven guilty, albeit likely will never be proven guilty as there is probably no substantive evidence to prove such a direct link to the SAUDI ARABIAN crown prince. Nonetheless, the uproar over Jamal Khashoggi fate has severely damaged the reputation of Crown Prince Mohammed, the 33-year-old monarch, who basically rules the kingdom. Furthermore, a number of prominent Western business executives and Wall Street financiers have cancelled plans to attend an investment conference in SAUDI ARABIA next week with the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, being the latest high-profile guest to cancel.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor representing a step in the right direction given that a clear majority acclaimed Barham Salih. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as a growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, Iraq relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi clearly state that IRAQ has presented the U.S. with a framework from which the IRAQI delegation will go to the U.S. to negotiate with a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. In regards to the U.S. imposed sanctions on an IRAQI based money services business, AFAQ DUBAI, believed to be transferring funds for the ISIS militant group, these sanctions seem to be in line with a broader U.S. effort to target a network of money services businesses that enable ISIS to carry out operations across the Middle East. In my opinion, the U.S. seems to be focusing its attention on ISIS cash flows as in September, the U.S. authorities took action against ISIS financial facilitators with ties in the Caribbean and the Middle East, while recently also taking punitive actions against a money exchange group in SYRIA.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Thus, in my opinion, the shift now in focus of the SAA campaign to IDLIB is expected, as it is unacceptable that terrorists, particularly the AL-NUSRA FRONT, are using the de-escalation area of IDLIB to attack the SYRIAN army and to also attack the RUSSIAN military bases in the area by utilizing drones. However, in my opinion, TURKISH backed opposition groups in IDLIB that have attempted to unify into a new coalition, with some 70,000 fighters pledging to fight against SAA forces without the terrorist group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most dominant rebel force in IDLIB in control of about 60% of the province, will not be able to indefinitely withstand the impending SAA and RUSSIAN military onslaught. Furthermore, in my opinion, a major military operation in IDLIB could pose a particularly threatening humanitarian crisis because there is no opposition held territory remaining in SYRIA, where people could be evacuated to, such that as many as 2.5 million SYRIANS could try to flee to the closed TURKISH border, creating a new refugee crisis of catastrophic proportions. Hence, in my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion would have been disastrous for all parties. However, in my opinion the withdrawal of all the so-called radical fighters from the area by October 15, that includes hardline Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is dominated by a rebel faction previously linked to al-Qaeda, were not yet persuaded to leave IDLIB peacefully. Therefore, in my opinion, the challenges to implementing the agreement are immense, such that it looks like RUSSIA and TURKEY are both buying time. Thus, in my opinion, although an attack on IDLIB does not seem imminent, a confrontation in IDLIB does seem inevitable, albeit the confrontation will likely be between the SAA and HTS whose fighters have proven to be more effective in preventing an SAA takeover than the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces.

Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that are still scheduled to come back into full force in November. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. In my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump, has courted the royals of SAUDI ARABIA from the beginning of his presidency while his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, seems to have a close relationship with the SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman. However, in my opinion, the U.S. President, Donald Trump, now seems to be playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family because he realized that in order to successfully confront IRAN, with the potentially crippling global embargo on IRANIAN oil, set to take effect on November 5, 2018, the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIAN support. That is, if SAUDI ARABIA does not compensate for IRANIAN oil shortfalls on the international markets, the outcome could be a worldwide oil shock, with rapidly rising prices and massive negative impacts on international markets and trade. In my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump operates politically just like he did in business; with the philosophy of there are no friends in business but rather only related interests. Thus, although gossip and rumours have been circulating abound via social media, that nobody honestly believes the high-risk assassination of Jamal Khashoggi was undertaken without the prior knowledge of SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, also known as SAUDI ARABIA’s most powerful man, U.S. President, Donald Trump, did not sanction him nor SAUDI ARABIA as this would blow up U.S. President, Donald Trump entire Iranian strategy. Thus, U.S. President, Donald Trump played the cards of innocent until proven guilty perfectly as he knows that regardless of what the gossip and rumours may say, it will be difficult for the investigators to find substantive evidence to hold the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. Hence, U.S. President, Donald Trump has also refused to suspend arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA, as recommended by Congress, due to the SAUDI ARABIAN led carnage in YEMEN, as U.S. jobs depend on arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, U.S. President, Donald Trump also respects the fact that US$ 100 million was contributed by SAUDI ARABIA directly to the U.S. to help stabilise SYRIA.

In my opinion, the current situation in the Middle East depicts the new geopolitical realities whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War that would likely be triggered by a direct ISRAEL and IRAN conflict, such that all leaders across the globe must avoid the temptation to look away but rather should increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, minimize civilian casualties, prevent the further use of chemical weapons and alleviate the humanitarian crisis from a civil war spiralling out of control with no end in sight, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the Middle East. That being said, the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, because he realized that in order to successfully confront IRAN, with the potentially crippling global embargo on IRANIAN oil, set to take effect on November 5, 2018, the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIA to compensate for IRANIAN oil shortfalls on the international markets, as otherwise the outcome could be a worldwide oil shock, with rapidly rising prices and massive negative impacts on international markets and trade, demonstrating how U.S. President, Donald Trump operates politically just like he did in business; with the philosophy of there are no friends in business but rather only related interests, hence, although gossip and rumours have been circulating abound via social media, that nobody honestly believes the high-risk assassination of Jamal Khashoggi was undertaken without the prior knowledge of SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, U.S. President, Donald Trump, did not sanction him nor SAUDI ARABIA as this would obviously destroy U.S. President, Donald Trump’s entire IRANIAN strategy.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 321” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, because he realized that in order to successfully confront IRAN, with the potentially crippling global embargo on IRANIAN oil, set to take effect on November 5, 2018, the U.S. needs SAUDI ARABIA to compensate for IRANIAN oil shortfalls on the international markets, as otherwise the outcome could be a worldwide oil shock, with rapidly rising prices and massive negative impacts on international markets and trade, demonstrating how U.S. President, Donald Trump operates politically just like he did in business; with the philosophy of there are no friends in business but rather only related interests, hence, although gossip and rumours have been circulating abound via social media, that nobody honestly believes the high-risk assassination of Jamal Khashoggi was undertaken without the prior knowledge of SAUDI Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, U.S. President, Donald Trump, did not sanction him nor SAUDI ARABIA as this would obviously destroy U.S. President, Donald Trump’s entire IRANIAN strategy.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

October 21, 2018

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