World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 320

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 320

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 320” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to realize that he is dealing with a shark, with IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, who he described as the top leader of a corrupt IRANIAN dictatorship responsible for sowing chaos, death and destruction, while also being able to appear as an absolutely lovely man, albeit U.S. President Donald Trump being the shark of sharks, as he combines criticism with compliments creating a paradox, with the purpose of bringing IRAN back to the negotiating table, as U.S. President Donald Trump wants to negotiate a better deal, as he knows full well that IRAN out negotiated, out manoeuvred and out smarted the previous U.S. Administration to sign an IRAN Nuclear Deal that was far more advantageous to IRAN than the international communities, such that U.S. President Donald Trump will squeeze IRAN as hard as possible until IRAN agrees to return to the table of negotiations, albeit IRAN seems to love to play poker with their economic destinies, such that IRAN may choose to play hardball, whereby IRAN will escalate the conflict by increasing its nuclear activities and intentionally provoking a crisis, if IRAN wants to bet its life that the U.S. will cave in and return to the status quo deal previously negotiated in 2015, or alternatively, IRAN may choose to simply hold out with the goal of endurance for a time, rather than bargaining with the U.S. to relieve crushing economic pressure, as IRANIAN egos are too strong to take the logical, rational and coherent deductive reasoning approach of renegotiating the 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal immediately.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

This week’s focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to be on TURKEY’s fragile economy, that received another economic blow recently, when TURKEY’s growth forecasts for this year and next were dramatically reduced, triggering further drops in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY seems to find itself in an awkward position, like a dog chasing its tail, as TURKEY has seen its currency plunge over 40% this year, over investor concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy and a horrible diplomatic separation from the U.S. In my opinion, the TURKISH economic turbulence has shaken global financial markets and created the potential for a banking crisis that could have a disastrous domino effect across the entire global financial markets. In my opinion, TURKEY’s banks face a potential barrage of bad debts as the TURKISH Lira sell-off has driven up the cost for companies to service their foreign currency denominated loans. That is, TURKISH companies have been borrowing in U.S. Dollars and Euros for years, to take advantage of lower interest rates, but it appears that the private sector has accumulated over $145 billion in foreign currency denominated debt, maturing during the upcoming year. Nonetheless, Berat Albayrak, TURKEY’s finance minister stated that TURKEY does not foresee a big risk on the TURKISH economy and banking system as the TURKISH economy has strong fundamentals. Hence, THE ROCK would like to kindly and politely offer his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately this week, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. However, in my opinion, the TURKISH government’s efforts to curtail inflation are more likely to hurt the TURKISH economy than help it because it will require police efforts in order to enforce this economic policy.

In my opinion, a lot of small TURKISH businesses have no idea how to price and cost things, such that they are simply raising prices by as much as the TURKISH Lira drops. Therefore, by trying to stop pricing pegged to the TURKISH Lira, the TURKISH government could be making things worse because if small TURKISH businesses cannot price appropriately, they may stop producing or selling, which could explain why some grocery stores and supermarkets have been experiencing shortages of some essential goods. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations. Therefore, in a country such as TURKEY that resembles a military controlled state, forcing Turkish companies to lower prices by 10%, accompanied by policing of businesses, shops and supermarkets to verify prices can certainly be implemented. However, there will obviously be collateral damage with reduced margins by businesses and particularly retailers, such that TURKEY will likely have to also force the banks to restructure loans and defer payment schedules. Thus, in my opinion, investors are scared by soaring inflation, widening operating deficits and a declining TURKISH Lira that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could immediately stabilize by releasing Pastor Andrew Brunson. That is, U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of TURKISH steel and aluminum in an attempt to force TURKEY to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, which seems to represent a relatively quick economic fix, such that finally Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems ready to put the debate of application of justice aside to for a quick fix to the TURKISH economy, as the U.S. does not recognize the admission of circumstantial evidence according to international laws and regulations.

In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump once again showed a strong backbone by making good on his warnings to TURKEY that there would be punitive consequences if TURKEY does not reverse the charges or acquit Pastor Andrew Brunson on all accusations of espionage and aiding of terrorist groups. In my opinion, President Donald Trump’s assessment is accurate that Pastor Andrew Brunson is a fine gentleman and Christian leader who is being persecuted in TURKEY for no reason whereby TURKEY calls Pastor Andrew Brunson a Spy, although there is no substantive evidence, such that Pastor Andrew Brunson should be allowed to return home to his beautiful family where he belongs. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump was right to be infuriated by the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson, by authorizing the doubling of duties on aluminum and steel imported from TURKEY, although TURKEY retaliated accordingly, by increasing tariffs on U.S. cars, alcohol and tobacco imports, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally agreed to listen to the U.S. as a quick fix to its struggling economy, further accentuated by the U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, Pastor Andrew Brunson now seems to be expected to be released after his next court hearing, in a deal that was discussed by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton during meetings with TURKISH officials last month at the U.N. meeting in New York City. However, in my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made the right decision to not publicly address Pastor Andrew Brunson’s release, prior to his hearing, as his freedom is not certain before the TURKISH justice system officially concludes.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In regards to this weeks uncertainty looming over IRAQ, as it appears that ISIS is trying to re-emerge in IRAQ, while the new president and prime minister will have a difficult time translating recent political developments into concrete changes. Nonetheless, it is important to note that for the first time ever, the IRAQI parliament voted freely for IRAQ’s next president, with Barham Salih winning by a landslide vote of 219 to 22 over his competitor representing a step in the right direction given that a clear majority acclaimed Barham Salih. Thus, in my opinion, this vote marks a departure from last summer’s election shake-up, with some two-thirds of the members of IRAQI parliament now being new to the job, as a growing protest movements exposed IRAQI citizen disillusionment with the political process, while increasing pressure on the IRAQI parliament for significant change. Nonetheless, in my opinion, poor governance, lack of public infrastructure and high levels of corruption, particularly in poor SUNNI areas, is helping to fuel ISIS’s objectives of a comeback after its crushing defeat. Unfortunately for IRAQ, the U.S. sanctions on IRAN seem to be arriving at the worst possible time, as the embargo on its IRANIAN neighbour could hit jobs in IRAQ and cut off a crucial source of relatively cheap imports into IRAQ.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ this week over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. In regards to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blaming IRAN for threats to U.S. missions in IRAQ and stating that the U.S. was terminating a treaty of amity with IRAN and closing the U.S. consulate in BASRA, I was not surprised, as once U.S. intelligence indicated that IRAN’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his hit men were supporting the recent attacks on the U.S., it was obvious that the U.S. would retreat accordingly. In my opinion, although the U.S. officially ended the amity treaty, the amity treaty ended in substance years ago, as it was an ancestral agreement that was signed long before IRAN’s 1979 Islamic Revolution that turned the U.S. and IRAN into archenemies. In my opinion, IRAN was clever enough to dig up this amity treaty as a means for judges at the International Court of Justice to hand a victory to IRAN, which had argued that sanctions imposed since May by the U.S. violate the terms of this 1955 Treaty of Amity between the two countries. However, the U.S. merely withdraw from this amity treaty agreement while stating that the International Court of Justice failed to recognize that it has no jurisdiction to issue any order relating to U.S. imposed sanctions.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Hence, I was not surprised to see IRAN’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, warn that IRAN stands ready to build advanced centrifuges and further enrich uranium as part of a restart of its nuclear program. Furthermore, I was not surprised to see ISRAELI Intelligence Minister Yisrael Katz specify that if IRAN presses forward with its nuclear program, IRAN will face a direct threat from the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump’s warning to the world’s banks that IRAN’s bankers and officials may resort to front companies, fraudulent documents and other measures to generate revenue for IRAN’s terrorist activities. However, in my opinion, the success of the U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN will ultimately depend upon how far the U.S. administration will go in imposing sanctions on countries like CHINA, INDIA, TURKEY and EUROPEAN allies that continue to do business with IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions are simple in theory, although they will be extremely difficult to imposes in practice, as the U.S. objective of applying sanctions broadly to entities that maintain commercial relationships in IRAN will most likely result in exceptions in practice, as sanctions will only be applied to entities that knowingly evade U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN.

It is important to note that INDIA has already signalled this week that it will continue buying oil from IRAN after November 4 and purchase the S-400 TRIUMF air defence system from RUSSIA that seems to indicate that INDIA will no longer be a key ally of the U.S. prospectively. Thus, I believe that INDIA could very well be the first country in the region to be hit with U.S. imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) after formally ignoring U.S. imposed sanctions on IRAN while signing the US$ 5 billion deal with RUSSIA to purchase the S-400 TRIUMF air defence system. In regards to JAPAN that has also made it clear that IRAN’s oil is extremely important to JAPAN’s energy security such that JAPAN intends to have talks with the U.S. in order to be able to continue to import IRANIAN crude oil, I believe that JAPAN will likely qualify as one of the handful of countries for sanctions relief eluded to by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. However, in my opinion, for the U.S. to have success with its U.S. imposed sanctions to bring IRAN back to the negotiating table over the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, from which the U.S. withdrew, the U.S. will be dependent on back-up and support from other key players, namely EUROPE.

U.S. President Donald Trump seems to realize that he is dealing with a shark, with IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, who he described as the top leader of a corrupt IRANIAN dictatorship responsible for sowing chaos, death and destruction while also being able to appear as an absolutely lovely man. However, U.S. President Donald Trump is the shark of sharks, as he combines criticism with compliments creating a paradox with the purpose of bringing IRAN back to the negotiating table, as U.S. President Donald Trump wants to negotiate a better deal, as he knows full well that IRAN out negotiated, out manoeuvred and out smarted the previous U.S. Administration to sign an IRAN Nuclear Deal that was far more advantageous to IRAN than the international communities. Thus, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump will squeeze IRAN as hard as possible until IRAN agrees to return to the table of negotiations, albeit IRAN seems to love to play poker with their economic destinies. That is, IRAN may choose to play hardball, whereby IRAN will escalate the conflict by increasing its nuclear activities and intentionally provoking a crisis, if IRAN wants to bet its life that the U.S. will cave in and return to the status quo deal previously negotiated in 2015. Alternatively, IRAN may choose to simply hold out with the goal of endurance for a time rather than bargaining with the U.S. to relieve crushing economic pressure from U.S. imposed sanctions. It is important to note that IRAN has taken most of the benefits that it has received under the 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal and invested that money in external affairs as opposed to its own population, for the good of the people, such as for medical hospitals and things of that nature, such that IRAN may very well be able to bite the bullet for a while from the U.S. imposed sanctions. Thus, in my opinion, IRANIAN egos are too strong to take the logical, rational and coherent deductive reasoning approach of renegotiating the 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal immediately such that I believe IRAN will take the poker bet that the U.S. will be isolated internationally, that U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach will prove polarizing domestically and thus be discarded by his successor, and that the U.S. will not go beyond U.S. imposed sanctions to challenge IRAN across the region militarily. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump must frustrate IRAN’s expectations on all of these three fronts, while dissuading IRAN from expanding its nuclear pursuits that will require a comprehensive and multilateral strategy that is supported by U.S. allies that goes beyond U.S. imposed sanctions. That is, the U.S. will need to utilize all policy tools available covering diplomatic, intelligence and military to sustain pressure on IRAN, starting with healing the divide between the U.S. and its allies, particularly FRANCE, GERMANY, and the UNITED KINGDOM, which negotiated the 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal alongside the U.S. In addition, the U.S. military needs to stand on guard, on the ground, in areas where IRAN supports proxies and where IRAN has a comparative advantage over the U.S. in the Middle East, as when IRAN is faced with economic pressure, IRAN may choose to respond with force elsewhere. Lastly, U.S. President Donald Trump must secure bipartisan support for his strategy towards IRAN; as otherwise, IRAN may choose to hold out for a more favourable future policy, from another U.S. administration.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 320” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to realize that he is dealing with a shark, with IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, who he described as the top leader of a corrupt IRANIAN dictatorship responsible for sowing chaos, death and destruction, while also being able to appear as an absolutely lovely man, albeit U.S. President Donald Trump being the shark of sharks, as he combines criticism with compliments creating a paradox, with the purpose of bringing IRAN back to the negotiating table, as U.S. President Donald Trump wants to negotiate a better deal, as he knows full well that IRAN out negotiated, out manoeuvred and out smarted the previous U.S. Administration to sign an IRAN Nuclear Deal that was far more advantageous to IRAN than the international communities, such that U.S. President Donald Trump will squeeze IRAN as hard as possible until IRAN agrees to return to the table of negotiations, albeit IRAN seems to love to play poker with their economic destinies, such that IRAN may choose to play hardball, whereby IRAN will escalate the conflict by increasing its nuclear activities and intentionally provoking a crisis, if IRAN wants to bet its life that the U.S. will cave in and return to the status quo deal previously negotiated in 2015, or alternatively, IRAN may choose to simply hold out with the goal of endurance for a time, rather than bargaining with the U.S. to relieve crushing economic pressure, as IRANIAN egos are too strong to take the logical, rational and coherent deductive reasoning approach of renegotiating the 2015 IRAN Nuclear Deal immediately.

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:

October 14, 2018

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[Ivan]

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