World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 430
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 430” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 12,400, with total over 446,900 cases, as over 59.2 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 1,396,600 people dead, while LIBYA’s rivals have begun a second round of talks, on a mechanism to choose a transitional government, that would lead conflict-stricken LIBYA to elections in December next year, as political forum was latest effort to end chaos, that engulfed oil-rich nation, after 2011 overthrow & killing of long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi, as heavy international push, to reach a peaceful settlement to LIBYA’s conflict, to fully implement ceasefire agreement, & find an agreed mechanism for fair & transparent use of oil revenues, while SAUDI ARABIA’s foreign minister denied reports, that a meeting took place between Crown Prince MBS & ISRAELI officials, as publicly, SAUDI ARABIA has said it would stick to decades-old Arab League position, of not having ties with ISRAEL, until JEWISH state’s conflict with PALESTINIANS is resolved, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 45,300 people in IRAN, with over 866,900 confirmed cases, while for ARMENIAN soldiers, on the losing side of the short but brutal NAGORNO-KARABAKH war, the loss of territory to AZERBAIJAN remains so bitter, that some say they would have preferred to fight on.
TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to TURKEY making it clear that TURKEY cannot absorb any more refugees, either from SYRIA or beyond, in my opinion, this is not surprising, as TURKEY has already absorbed over 4 million refugees. However, in my opinion, TURKEY cautioning the E.U. not to be complacent about the challenges the E.U. faces, including the rise of extremism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism is valid, albeit most of EUROPE is currently unable to absorb more refugees. Therefore, in my opinion, TURKEY calling for a revamped international system to manage the huge displacement of people fleeing conflicts, such as SYRIA, while trying to convince the E.U. to help TURKEY resolve such conflicts and address the geopolitical issues that currently surround EUROPE, is a priority, as the refugees fleeing war torn countries will not disappear on its own. In my opinion, the entire region needs peace now more than ever, to allow refugees to once again become active members of their respective countries of origin, as the only viable long-term solution to the huge refugee crisis. Hence, in my opinion, COVID-19 could result in the imminent path towards peace in the MIDDLE EAST as all countries in the region now have a unified enemy to combat. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY has also been forced to extend its measures against the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, from suspending flights and limiting work hours to more stringent disinfection works, as the death toll increased to over 12,400 with a total of over 446,900 cases.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it is not surprising that TURKISH authorities have imposed new measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the number of infections continues to rise sharply. In my opinion, TURKEY took necessary measures with mandatory facemasks on public transport, in markets and other communal spaces, along with 31 cities now being closed to all but essential traffic. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY needs to remain vigilant as TURKEY has now become the twenty fifth highest number of cases worldwide as over 59.2 million people have fallen ill globally and more than 1,396,600 people have died.
In my opinion, it was not surprising that this week FRANCE’s growing disagreement with TURKEY over the LIBYAN civil war has exposed cracks in the NATO military alliance and raised questions over what FRANCE is seeking to achieve in the region. That is, in my opinion, FRANCE was the only European country considered to be a supporter of renegade General Khalifa Haftar, who launched a more than yearlong offensive on TRIPOLI to replace the UN-backed government. Thus, in my opinion, the dispute with TURKEY has escalated as TURKEY’s military intervention backing LIBYA’s Government of National Accord (GNA) shifted the dynamics of the LIBYAN conflict, with General Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffering a string of defeats in recent weeks. However, in my opinion, FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron insists FRANCE has now adopted a neutral stance and that it fully supports the U.N. supported peace process in LIBYA agreed by international powers in January. Nonetheless, in my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced EGYPT and UAE for supporting forces based in eastern LIBYA, after EGYPT’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met LIBYAN tribesmen who urged EGYPT to intervene in the war. In my opinion, TURKEY has been providing military aid to the U.N. recognised government in the LIBYA conflict, while EGYPT, UAE and RUSSIA have backed its rivals based in the east.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, this week LIBYA’s rivals have begun a second round of talks on a mechanism to choose a transitional government that would lead conflict-stricken LIBYA to elections in December next year, according to the United Nations (UN). UN acting envoy for LIBYA, Stephanie Williams, headed the online meeting of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, a week after the first round of the talks in TUNISIA failed to name an executive authority. In my opinion, the 75-member forum, however, reached an agreement to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24, 2021. It also agreed to name a volunteer legal committee to work on the constitutional basis for the election. In my opinion, the political forum was the latest effort to end the chaos that engulfed the oil-rich nation after the 2011 overthrow and killing of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. However, the UN mission in LIBYA said it was investigating allegations of bribes paid to some participants in the forum to vote for certain names to be part of the transitional government. In my opinion, the mission did not name anyone but promised to impose international sanctions on anyone obstructing the talks. In my opinion, the forum took place amid a heavy international push to reach a peaceful settlement to LIBYA’s conflict. However, previous diplomatic initiatives have all collapsed. In my opinion, LIBYA is split between a UN-recognised government in the capital, TRIPOLI, and rival authorities based in the east. The two sides are backed by a mix of local militias, as well as regional and foreign powers. Furthermore, in my opinion, LIBYA’s warring sides agreed to a UN-brokered ceasefire last month in Geneva, a deal that included the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries from LIBYA within three months. However, no progress was announced on the issue of foreign forces and mercenaries a month after they signed the ceasefire deal. In my opinion, thousands of foreign fighters, including RUSSIANS, SYRIANS, SUDANESE and CHADIANS, have been brought to LIBYA by both sides, according to UN experts. However, in my opinion, in a show of support to the UN mission, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY and the UNITED KINGDOM threatened to take measures against anyone standing in the way of talks aimed at ending the conflict, without specifying. That is, in a joint statement, the four European countries urged the LIBYAN parties to fully implement the ceasefire agreement and find an agreed mechanism for the fair and transparent use of oil revenues. In my opinion, in September, forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, a renegade commander allied with authorities in the east, announced an end to a months-long blockade of LIBYA’s vital oil fields and terminals.
SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY persists, as anyone found responsible for the assassination, should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. That is, the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and downright psychopathic in nature. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, CIA Director Gina Haspel was able to garner extensive support for her conclusion, to officially blame Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, as the entire Senate Committee voted unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is expected. However, in my opinion, 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
In regard to SAUDI ARABIAN authorities temporarily suspending entry for people planning to visit SAUDI ARABIA for UMRAH, pilgrimage, or for visiting Prophet’s mosque in MAKKAH and MEDINA over fears of deadly coronavirus, this is not surprising as fears in entire MIDDLE EAST are at all-time high. Thus, in my opinion, this precautionary step has been taken to provide the utmost protection to the safety of citizens, residents and everyone who intends to come to SAUDI ARABIA for the purpose of tourism. In regard to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak disrupting the world economy, with fewer planes flying, ships sailing and factories producing, it is not surprising to see recent declines in oil prices. However, in my opinion, when oil prices commence plummeting, they tend to bring world stock prices down with them. In my opinion, the main reason why coronavirus (COVID-19) is a threat to oil prices is that CHINA is the main new consumer of oil in the world, as CHINA alone contributes about 33% of new consumption of oil each year, and ASIA more broadly about 50% of new consumption. Therefore, in my opinion, if the demand for oil slows down in the region because people are not travelling or factories are not producing as a result of coronavirus (COVID-19), oil prices will inevitably sink.
However, in my opinion, this week SAUDI ARABIA appears to be coping with rising number of cases as well with SAUDI ARABIA reporting over 5,800 deaths from the coronavirus (COVID-19) while bringing the total number of cases to over 355,500. Thus, in my opinion, oil prices fell to the lowest levels in more than 17 years as demand plunged as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Hence, this week, after a SAUDI ARABIAN and RUSSIAN truce to stabilise oil markets with a record output cut, it was not surprising to see the two production heavyweights still trading blows in the physical market. That is, in my opinion, as demand is falling, and the competition is getting even tougher, SAUDI ARABIA does not seem to mind enticing buyers with special offers. That is, it was not surprising to see SAUDI ARABIAN Aramco offer refiners in ASIA and EUROPE the option to defer payments for crude cargo deliveries by up to 90 days. However, in my opinion, RUSSIA’s main advantage in the physical market fight with SAUDI ARABIA is its extensive pipeline network, helping RUSSIA to place oil at cheaper rates compared to its rival SAUDI ARABIA that has to find tankers and pay for transportation.
Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN oil fields are connected to refineries in EUROPE and ASIA such that oil companies have long-term contracts with RUSSIA. Meanwhile, in my opinion, Saudi Arabia is subject to freight rates and vessel availability for transportation of its oil. Therefore, in my opinion, although the rivals stated that they were ready to take measures to balance the market by cutting combined output with other OPEC members from May to reduce global supply by 10%, the battle for clients is still going on the ground. Thus, it is not surprising to see the battle raging on the day-to-day current market, rather than in the world of futures prices, as a long-standing battle for market share carries on, particularly in ASIA.
Hence, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA was forced to impose 24-hour curfews over some SAUDI ARABIAN cities including the capital of RIYADH. In my opinion, it is shocking to see the biggest economy in the MIDDLE EAST also close down cinemas, malls and restaurants and halt flights as it steps up efforts to contain COVID-19. Hence, in my opinion, King Salman hit the nail on the head by warning of a more difficult fight ahead against COVID-19, as SAUDI ARABIA faces the double blow of an economic standstill and crashing oil prices. That is, oil prices have plummeted because of the global economic shutdown, while SAUDI ARABIA and RUSSIA have pumped oil relentlessly in a war for market share.
Furthermore, in my opinion, this week, SAUDI ARABIA’s foreign minister has denied reports that a meeting took place between Crown Prince MBS and ISRAELI officials. ISRAELI media reported earlier that ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held secret talks in SAUDI ARABIA with Crown Prince MBS. In my opinion, the reports by ISRAELI public broadcaster KAN and other outlets came weeks after ISRAEL reached deals to establish relations with the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE), BAHRAIN and SUDAN. The deals were brokered by the administration of United States President Donald Trump, who leaves office in less than two months. In my opinion, there has been widespread speculation, within ISRAEL and the U.S., that the U.S. may push for other Arab states to follow suit before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was in ISRAEL last week, was also at the reported talks, according to Kan’s diplomatic correspondent. In my opinion, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has confirmed he was in Neom on the Red Sea as part of a Middle East Tour and met Crown Prince MBS. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, US State Department and the U.S. embassy to ISRAEL had not commented on the reports. In my opinion, publicly, SAUDI ARABIA has said it would stick to the decades-old Arab League position of not having ties with ISRAEL until the JEWISH state’s conflict with the PALESTINIANS is resolved. In my opinion, the PALESTINIANS have condemned the normalisation deals as a stab in the back, urging ARAB states to hold firm until ISRAEL ends its occupation of PALESTINIAN territory and agrees to the creation of a PALESTINIAN state. In late August, ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said ISRAEL was holding unpublicised meetings with Arab and Muslim leaders to normalise relations with the state of ISRAEL, without naming any countries. However, in my opinion, amid speculation that smaller Arab states, such as OMAN, were also interested in a deal, SAUDI ARABIA has stood out as the key target for ISRAEL, given SAUDI ARABIA’s wealth and influence. In my opinion, Sunni Arab states, and especially ISRAEL, worry that President-elect Joe Biden may seek to revive the IRAN nuclear deal agreed between IRAN and world powers during Barack Obama’s presidency, which was scrapped by United States President Donald Trump.
Thus, in my opinion, all of SAUDI ARABIA’s faults and excesses seem to be excused as long as U.S. President Donald Trump remains focused on pressuring IRAN. That is, tensions over the killing of Washington Post columnist and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and alleged hacking of Amazon president Jeff Bezos’s phone by Crown Prince MBS all appear to be overlooked, as the U.S. focus remains steadfast upon IRAN. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA now finds itself with a conundrum, as SAUDI ARABIA wants IRAN beaten up but not broken, while SAUDI ARABIA relies on others, mostly the U.S., to do the job. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA does not have the skills and abilities to confront IRAN directly in terms of military expertise and strategic planning. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA has found that U.S. may be changing its mind frequently when it comes to defending SAUDI ARABIA from an IRANIAN attack, as transpired in September of 2019, when a suspected IRANIAN drone struck SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. responded with a lot of heat but little fire, as there was no direct U.S. retaliation on behalf of SAUDI ARABIA.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump has since deployed thousands of additional troops to SAUDI ARABIA, the SAUDIS still feel vulnerable, such that after the attack on SAUDI Aramco oil processing facilities, the SAUDIS were exploring indirect talks with IRAN, with help of IRAQ and PAKISTAN, to try to reduce tensions. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAN Senior General, Qassem Suleimani was Crown Prince MBS nemesis, who inspired some jealousy and admiration for having achieved what Crown Prince MBS felt SAUDI ARABIA never quite mastered, a regional MIDDLE EAST strategy that inspires both fear and respect, with a solid network of loyal proxies and allies. Therefore, in my opinion, as protests continue in IRAN and U.S. ramps up pressure on IRAN, choking IRAN economically, talk of IRAN regime change or collapse is in air once again, while Saudi ARABIA watches with fear and agitation, as although Saudi ARABIAN forces are not welcome in IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA actually needs current IRANIAN regime to survive, as U.S. special friend status in MIDDLE EAST has become tied to continuation of IRANIAN regime.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as prime focus of discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. Therefore, I was not surprised to see IRAQI President Barham Salih focus on U.S. & IRANIAN tensions by clearly stating that war is the last thing the MIDDLE EAST needs, as the last war on terror against ISIS has not yet been completed.
Furthermore, in my opinion, MIDDLE EAST is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and threat of war between U.S. & IRAN, while certain that IRAQ would be caught in middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in background, as he has stated that one reason, he wants to keep a base in IRAQ is to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN. That is, U.S. sees IRAN as real problem, although when U.S. President Donald Trump asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, he clearly stated no, as all he wants to do in IRAQ is monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wants to make sure that there are no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, IRAQ has only logged a total of over 537,500 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and recorded over 12,000 deaths, as there remain valid concerns that many more are going undetected, as only small portion of IRAQ’s 40 million plus population have been tested thus far. Therefore, in my opinion, although most of IRAQ’s 18 provinces have already imposed their own local curfews, new measures will include the whole of IRAQ, according to a decision by IRAQ’s crisis management team were necessary. Therefore, in my opinion, IRAQ has been forced to close schools, universities and other gathering places, including IRAQ’s multiple international airports. However, in my opinion, IRAQI authorities have been struggling to enforce previous curfews, as many thousands of SHIA pilgrims turned out in the capital of BAGHDAD and other cities in the south of IRAQ to commemorate the death of a revered Muslim imam, Musa al-Kadhim, with reports saying up to 400,000 people trying to attend his shrine north of BAGHDAD, as al-Kadhim was the seventh of 12 imams considered the spiritual and political successors to the Prophet Muhammad.
However, in my opinion, in the backdrop does linger the possibility of the relationship between IRAQ and the U.S. being on the brink of collapse, as IRAQ seeks to form a new government, with its parliament on record as recommending that U.S. forces be expelled from IRAQ due to the January’ 2020 killing of IRANIAN terror mastermind Qassam Soleimani. Furthermore, in my opinion, tensions were once again inflamed by the U.S. retaliation, on March 13, 2020, for recent rocket barrages against U.S. and allied forces in IRAQ by IRANIAN-backed militias that killed two U.S. soldiers and one British soldier. Subsequently, in my opinion, another round of barrages occurred by IRANIAN-backed militias, with the potential for yet more U.S. retaliations. Therefore, in my opinion, the U.S. and IRAQI partnership appears to be in danger namely due to IRAN’s solid presence in IRAQ which would be a tragic shame if it ended as for Iraq, U.S. presence is great counterweight to IRAN and ISIS, while U.S. also helpful with IRAQI internal politics, especially in regard to sectarian divisions in IRAQI security forces. In my opinion, KURDISH, SHIA and SUNNI IRAQIS may all have their issues with the U.S., but little view the U.S. as inherently biased against them such that the U.S. serves its purpose well as a balancing force in IRAQ amongst competing interests.
SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Hence, in my opinion, at this stage three scenario are still possible for IDLIB consisting of the FIRST and most favourable being for TURKEY & RUSSIA to agree to uphold the de-escalation zone agreement in IDLIB while ordering SAA forces to return to the positions they held before their latest offensive. Furthermore, this could be combined with a revival of the political process and resumption of meetings with the goal of drafting amendments to SYRIAN constitution agreed upon by current regime, opposition forces and international community. However, although TURKEY has tried to push for such a settlement by threatening military action if SAA forces did not pull back, the likelihood of this happening on the ground now seems unlikely, in light of recent SAA advances. The SECOND scenario would be TURKEY accepting new realities on ground and allowing SAA to control M4 & M5 highways but using force to limit any further SAA advances. Furthermore, TURKEY could seek to establish a safe zone in IDLIB by setting up re-enforced defence positions along frontline and supplying Syrian opposition with heavy weapons, especially anti-aircraft missiles. In my opinion, it appears that TURKEY Ankara has already adopted this policy on the ground given that two SAA helicopters were downed in IDLIB with anti-aircraft weapons. The THIRD scenario and the one that Turkey wants to avoid is an escalation with RUSSIA, as the presence of anti-aircraft weapons on ground raises risk of RUSSIAN aircraft being shot down. Furthermore, the TURKISH military is likely to take precautions to avoid such a dangerous development, but given massive deployments on the ground, TURKEY is the closest it has been since 2015 to a direct confrontation with RUSSIAN forces.
However, this week, in my opinion, SYRIANS in IDLIB rightfully feared a nearing end as the city of IDLIB is the last urban area still under opposition control in SYRIA, located in a shrinking rebel enclave, while representing the last rebel held enclave in SYRIA’s civil war, which entered its 10’th year this week. Therefore, in my opinion, the misery wreaked by the civil war has not diminished as a bloodier and possibly more disastrous phase is on the horizon, if government forces, backed by RUSSIA and IRAN, go ahead with threats to recapture IDLIB city and the remaining rebel-held north, crammed with over 3 million people. In my opinion, over the last three months, SAA forces recaptured nearly half of IDLIB province and surrounding areas, forcing nearly 1 million to flee their homes, around half of them into other parts of the province, including IDLIB city. Furthermore, during the advances, SAA forces neared IDLIB city outskirts while bombing parts and sending thousands of citizens fleeing north. In my opinion, IDLIB residents now struggle with daily life as more than half a million children have been displaced by latest fighting and are living in desperate conditions. Furthermore, in my opinion, although the government offensive may have been paused by a RUSSIAN and TURKISH cease-fire deal, residents of IDLIB are now living in a state of terrifying limbo, as they are sceptical whether the cease-fire will last, while being well aware that they are likely the next target of the last SAA assault.
However, in my opinion, the rebels still refuse to cede defeat as RUSSIAN Foreign Ministry stated that militant groups in the de-escalation zone in IDLIB have rearmed and are preparing to launch counterattacks against the SAA, while stressing the need to eliminate and hold them accountable for their actions. However, in my opinion, the militant groups have refrained from launching any major attacks as of yet as they know full well that the SAA and RUSSIAN militaries are ready, willing and able to launch a final assault on IDLIB.
Furthermore, in my opinion, SYRIAN and TURKISH armed forces sending reinforcements to the IDLIB on a daily basis, despite an ongoing ceasefire among all warring parties in the region, indicates that the SAA may be launching an offensive soon. Meanwhile, in my opinion, as men wage bloody battle for IDLIB, women sew facemasks to fight the next threat consisting of COVID-19 in sprawling refugee camps, as the official SYRIAN total of 376 deaths and 7,225 cases, does not seem to reflect potential risk of over 100,000 deaths if COVID-19 is allowed to spread without any mitigation. Nonetheless, it is not surprising that the SAA launched a new attack on the jihadist defenses along the southern IDLIB front lines where they saw an opening, as the SAA once again struck the defenses of the jihadist rebels after they moved more forces to the front lines near the town of AL-BARA. However, in my opinion, this week, it was not surprising to see the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) stating that it expects that RUSSIA, TURKEY and IRAN will reach a consensus to remove the head of the SYRIAN regime, Bashar Al-Assad, and establish a ceasefire in exchange for forming a transitional government that includes the opposition, members of the regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Thus, in my opinion, this decision would send a very clear political message, that the SYRIAN people do not want Bashar Al-Assad to remain President.
IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regard to this week’s efforts to stop the potential spread of coronavirus, after IRAN reported over 866,900 cases of the disease, it is quite normal for neighbour countries to be in fear of the virus spreading across borders. In my opinion, IRAN is desperately trying to limit the propagation of the virus by locking down parts of IRAN as part of attempts to control the spread of COVID-19, which has killed over 45,300 people in IRAN. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN has not made it secret that if the situation gets any worse, many IRANIANS will be expected to convert to teleworkers. As a friendly reminder, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus, responsible for the 2019 to 2020 coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, it is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from infected individuals when they cough or sneeze such that the time from exposure to onset of symptoms is generally between 2 to 14 days, such that the spread can be limited by hand washing and other hygiene measures. Thus, in my opinion, the focus was on COVID-19 as all IRANIAN neighbours are nervous after the virus has so far killed over 45,300 people in Iran, with over 866,900 confirmed cases.
In regard to this week’s evidence that Iran has become a new hotbed for coronavirus outside of CHINA, it is not surprising that authorities around the world are scrambling to expand their travel restrictions to stem the spread of the disease. Of particular note, in my opinion, what is also concerning is IRAN’s fatality rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than 3.4% in China and 1.5% outside of mainland China such that it appears that the COVID-19 disease came unseen and undetected into IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, the high death rate has raised questions over how the IRANIAN Government has handled the crisis and attracted accusations it has tried to cover up the severity of the outbreak. Hence, in my opinion, it is not surprising that IRANIAN government has been accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and not revealing the true extent of the crisis, as international officials fear the number of infections is much higher than the official count.
Thus, in my opinion, even if the official IRANIAN estimates are off by a lot, they still reveal an outbreak completely out of control, beyond the capacity of IRAN or perhaps any other country to manage. In my opinion, the messages coming out of IRAN on social media, especially from health-care workers indicates that the confirmed cases are in fact in excess of the official 866,900 tallies. In my opinion, social media posts notes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) reportedly spread after panicked residents of QOM and TEHRAN fled to smaller cities, thereby sowing COVID-19 all over IRAN, while other reports circulating on social media report that some provinces, such as MAZANDARAN, have set up roadblocks to keep more people with COVID-19 from spilling into their territory. Furthermore, in my opinion, the situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. In addition, medical professionals on social media appear to swear that the official numbers are wrong advising that just have to stay overnight in the hospital to find out what medical professionals are experiencing.
Meanwhile, I was not surprised to see that IRAN has now ordered the closure of nonessential businesses and banned travel between cities, albeit those measures came long after other countries in the region imposed more sweeping lockdowns. Thus, in my opinion, just over a week after saying that he expected the measures taken to curb the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) to be eased by early April, Hassan Rouhani now warned that the new way of life in IRAN was likely to be prolonged. Thus, in my opinion, Hassan Rouhani hit the nail on the head that we must be prepared to live with this virus until a treatment or vaccine is discovered, which has not yet happened to date. Hence, the new way of life IRAN has adopted is to everyone’s benefit such that these changes will likely have to stay in place for some time. Therefore, the reopening of schools following IRAN’s Persian New Year holidays from March 19 to April 3 did not transpire as planned. However, Hassan Rouhani stated that on a positive note, top health experts and doctors advised him that in some provinces, IRAN has passed the peak of the epidemic and IRAN is now on a downward trajectory. Hence, in my opinion, IRAN continues to confront the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid a battle between Science and Conspiracy Theories. Thus, in my opinion, this touchiness appears to be hindering efforts to gather information about the COVID-19 strains in IRAN, such that do not yet know the differences between IRAN isolates and others from MIDDLE EAST and ASIA, as IRAN has not deposited genomic sequences in global GISAID platform.
Furthermore, this week, in my opinion, with ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN locked in a fresh conflict over the contested region of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, neighbouring IRAN finds itself in a delicate balancing act, with political, historical and ethnic considerations. Iran’s official stance, after having tried to resolve the long-running conflict in previous decades through diplomatic means, remains one of mediation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. In my opinion, IRAN also recognises several United Nations resolutions that stipulate NAGORNO-KARABAKH, which is controlled by ethnic ARMENIANS backed by ARMENIA, is part of AZERBAIJAN and that occupied AZERI lands must be returned. In my opinion, the region broke away from AZERBAIJAN in a war during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s but is not recognised by any country as an independent country, including ARMENIA. IRAN, which shares borders with both ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN, last week reassured AZERBAIJAN that it recognises its territorial integrity and that it holds an important place in IRANIAN foreign policy. In my opinion, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani also had a phone call with ARMENIAN Prime Minister Nikol Pashynian to call for conflict resolution through political discourse and international laws. However, there have been allegations that IRAN supports ARMENIA, which in turn is supported by RUSSIA. Recently, in my opinion, videos circulating on social media purportedly showed military equipment being transferred to ARMENIA via trucks passing through an IRANIAN border pass. However, IRAN quickly denied the allegations, saying they were baseless rumours aimed at smearing relations with AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, IRANIAN state television broadcast footage from the NORDOOZ border terminal where the vehicles in question were. They were shown to be Russian Kamaz trucks, which a local official said had been purchased by ARMENIA before the conflict and were being transported through IRAN. The trucks were shown to be carrying vehicle parts. Meanwhile, in my opinion, several rockets and shelling from the NAGORNO-KARABAKH fighting have landed on IRANIAN soil, with several shells hitting a residential area close to the border for the first time, injuring a six-year-old. In my opinion, IRANIAN foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reacted to the incident, saying the country will not tolerate the conflict spilling into its borders. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a current member of the parliamentary national security and foreign policy commission, also believes the conflict cannot be resolved through anything but negotiations. According to Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, the two countries must put an end to fighting through peaceful means and negotiations that do not include other countries, like the U.S. and Israel, that don’t want the region to be peaceful. Fighting in the region will certainly be to the detriment of IRAN as well, such that IRAN must work toward ending the conflict.
Meanwhile, this week, in my opinion, for ARMENIAN soldiers on the losing side of the short but brutal NAGORNO-KARABAKH war, the loss of territory to AZERBAIJAN remains so bitter that some say they would have preferred to fight on. In my opinion, the sting of the RUSSIAN brokered peace deal was intense at a military outpost in Stepanakert, the main city in the enclave governed by a pro-ARMENIAN government but within the internationally recognized borders of AZERBAIJAN. In my opinion, it also reflected the wider outrage at the cease-fire in ARMENIA and among ethnic ARMENIANS in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising further questions about whether the pact can hold despite nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed to enforce it. RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin warned ARMENIA that the only alternative to the truce would be another suicidal war. As a friendly reminder, AZERBAIJAN lost NAGORNO-KARABAKH and seven surrounding districts in the 1988-to-1994 NAGORNO-KARABAKH war after ethnic ARMENIANS in the enclave split away. NAGORNO-KARABAKH’s independence was not recognized by any state, including ARMENIA, and more than two decades of peace talks under the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe failed to agree on the return of territory to AZERBAIJAN or on the enclave’s status. In my opinion, under the deal brokered by RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin, AZERBAIJAN recovered the seven districts and part of NAGORNO-KARABAKH, including the strategic town of SHUSHA. In my opinion, unfortunately, many of the dead in NAGORNO-KARABAKH were conscripts, barely older than children. Others are volunteer soldiers from across ARMENIA and the diaspora who left their lives and jobs behind to join the war effort. In my opinion, the ARMENIANS held out for as long as they could, but they were outgunned by AZERBAIJAN, which had a critical battlefield edge with attack drones purchased from ally TURKEY and others. Senior Russian officials, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko and others, arrived in the ARMENIAN capital, YEREVAN, to reinforce the deal, as protests over the agreement continued. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that nearly all Russian peacekeepers were in place with a total of 23 posts deployed while the RUSSIANS are monitoring the road to Stepanakert, ensuring the return of refugees. In my opinion, peaceful life has already been established while the RUSSIANS main task is preventing bloodshed as per Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has faced calls to resign over the deal.
However, in my opinion, it is impossible to claim that the IRANIAN government is solely responsible for the devastation COVID-19 has caused in IRAN. That is, in my opinion, the U.S. maximum pressure strategy against IRAN that commenced two years ago has placed IRAN under strict economic sanctions that limit its ability to trade with other nations. Furthermore, in my opinion, these sanctions, which choked off IRAN’s oil exports, crippled its economy and practically pushed it out of the international banking system, made it impossible for IRAN to swiftly take the necessary medical, economic and social measures to protect its citizens from COVID-19. In my opinion, the role U.S. sanctions have played, and continue to play, in the devastation caused by COVID-19 in Iran led to renewed discussions on the effectiveness, legality and legitimacy of sanctions not only in IRAN and the U.S., but also across the world. Thus, in my opinion, in IRAN, the IRANIAN government admitted that the sanctions make it difficult to obtain vital medical supplies and equipment to treat COVID-19 patients and called for their immediate lifting. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN frustrations were evident as IRAN’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that the U.S. has moved from economic terrorism to medical terror by declining to lift the sanctions after the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in IRAN and thus urging the international community to stop aiding war crimes by obeying illegal and immoral sanctions.
Meanwhile, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the OBAMA-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the 2015 Nuclear Accord. In my opinion, the U.S. remaining a participant in the IRAN nuclear accord that U.S. President Donald Trump renounced is part of a complex strategy to pressure the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council to extend an arms embargo on IRAN or see far more stringent sanctions re-imposed on IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, the strategy has begun to circulate in a new resolution in the U.N. Security Council that would bar countries from exporting conventional arms to IRAN after the current ban expires in October of 2020. However, in my opinion, any effort to renew the arms embargo is almost certain to be openly opposed by RUSSIA and privately by China, as the RUSSIANS have already told American and European officials, they are eager to resume conventional arms sales to IRAN. Hence, in my opinion, Mike Pompeo has approved a plan, under which the U.S. would, in essence, claim it legally remains a participant state in the 2015 Nuclear Deal that U.S. President Donald Trump denounced but only for the purposes of invoking a snapback that would restore the U.N. sanctions on IRAN that were in place before the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Obviously, in my opinion, EUROPEAN diplomats who have learned of the effort maintain that U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo, are selectively choosing whether they are still in the agreement to fit their agenda.
Summary
In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 430” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY death toll due to COVID-19 outbreak increased to over 12,400, with total over 446,900 cases, as over 59.2 million people fallen ill globally, & more than 1,396,600 people dead, while LIBYA’s rivals have begun a second round of talks, on a mechanism to choose a transitional government, that would lead conflict-stricken LIBYA to elections in December next year, as political forum was latest effort to end chaos, that engulfed oil-rich nation, after 2011 overthrow & killing of long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi, as heavy international push, to reach a peaceful settlement to LIBYA’s conflict, to fully implement ceasefire agreement, & find an agreed mechanism for fair & transparent use of oil revenues, while SAUDI ARABIA’s foreign minister denied reports, that a meeting took place between Crown Prince MBS & ISRAELI officials, as publicly, SAUDI ARABIA has said it would stick to decades-old Arab League position, of not having ties with ISRAEL, until JEWISH state’s conflict with PALESTINIANS is resolved, while all IRANIAN neighbours nervous after COVID-19 killed over 45,300 people in IRAN, with over 866,900 confirmed cases, while for ARMENIAN soldiers, on the losing side of the short but brutal NAGORNO-KARABAKH war, the loss of territory to AZERBAIJAN remains so bitter, that some say they would have preferred to fight on.
Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:
November 29, 2020
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