World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 374

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 374” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY reached agreement with U.S. to pause military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces, as TURKEY believes close to formally designating safe zone area in SYRIA, albeit KURDISH fighters disenchanted with six-day ultimatum, as KURDS anticipated retaining parts of safe zone territories after defeating ISIS with U.S., but U.S. President Donald Trump stated TURKEY did what U.S. asked TURKEY to do, while U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, met with King Salman & Crown Prince MBS, as U.S. pursues biggest MIDDLE EAST troop build-up of Trump Administration, to discuss military and defense cooperation, alleviating issues with investor confidence, as investor demand was high for this week’s SAUDI ARABIA ten-year bonds, to replenish SAUDI ARABIA coffers from low oil prices, while ISRAEL bracing for direct cruise missiles or drone attacks by IRAN, in response to strikes against IRAN’s regional proxies, namely HEZBOLLAH, as IRAN pledged to retaliate against ISRAEL, under an eye for an eye philosophy, as cruise missiles & drones fly at relatively low altitudes, making them harder to detect by ISRAELI Iron Dome missile defense system, as for every action in MIDDLE EAST, tends to be equal & opposing reaction.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may remain convinced that his enemies are out to get him, but it is difficult to hold foreign powers responsible for TURKEY remaining in recession, following a disastrous 2018 TURKISH Lira currency crisis, along with current fears that a new financial crunch is imminent, as unemployment and inflation in TURKEY are elevated, while business is depressed. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the TURKISH central bank that it was cutting its key policy interest rate to 19.75%, from 24%, and setting the stage for more, was not surprising. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak made it clear that with the important reduction of interest rates in TURKEY, and based on the fact that the interest rate trend will come down more strongly in the future, TURKEY has entered a period of interest rate cuts, while stressing that the TURKISH central bank makes its monetary policy and interest rate decisions based on its own data set. However, in my opinion, TURKEY was forced to lower interest rates as economic confidence in TURKEY fell during July of 2019, to 80.7 from 83.4 in June of 2019, while any reading below 100 indicates pessimism about the future among businesses and consumers.
In regards to this week’s TURKISH inflation slowing down sharply into single digits, I expect another showdown between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his new central banker, Murat Uysal, who hinted at limited room for more monetary easing. In my opinion, given that the inflation rate dropped to an annual 9.3% during September’ 2019 from 15% in August, TURKEY’s real interest rate is now among the highest in emerging markets, such that the big challenge will now be to manage the political aspects of the gap between the current TURKISH government policy interest rate at 16.5% and a single-digit inflation rate. Therefore, in my opinion, the good news could turn into a headache for TURKISH Bank Governor, Murat Uysal, whose predecessor was fired for not cutting interest rates fast enough. Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains fixated on lower interest rates, which he believes would only curb inflation, while Murat Uysal signalled this month that the TURKISH central bank might look to moderate its pace of interest rate cuts, after monetary easing that took place between July to September of 2019, in anticipation of a decrease in inflation. However, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s quest for TURKEY’s economic rebirth is already struggling while setting out a goal of 5% growth for 2020-2022 after slashing this year’s forecast near zero. Thus, despite the expectation of TURKEY’s economy suddenly awakening months after recession, the rest of the outlook is leaving the world in a state of shock, in the sense of too good to be true. In my opinion, the assumption by the governing AKP of a quick TURKISH take-off will require little fiscal stimulus, even after the TURKISH central bank stated that its monetary easing over the last several months left limited policy space. In my opinion, TURKEY also anticipates that an economic surge is possible without triggering a rise in inflation and generating a huge gap in the current account that haunted TURKEY’s previous economic recoveries.
In my opinion, this week’s announcement by TURKISH Defense Minister Hulusi Akar that there could be a delay in the delivery of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile-defense system, that threatens to exacerbate tensions between TURKEY and the U.S., could result in future difficulties for TURKEY to obtain IMF financing. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to purchase the S-400, surface-to-air, missile defense system from RUSSIA, has completely ignored the U.S. opinion that the presence of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defense system on NATO soil would compromise the security of the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. has a valid point that if the S-400 missile batteries were deployed inside TURKEY, RUSSIA could obtain confidential information about the U.S. F-35, which is supposed to become NATO’s principal combat aircraft. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have given TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an informal deadline of next month to choose between the U.S. F-35 and RUSSIAN S-400 given that TURKISH Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has delayed the first delivery of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defense system from June of 2019. Thus, in my opinion, given that TURKEY has consistently refused to abandon the RUSSIAN S-400 deal, the U.S. has threatened to withhold the sale of the U.S. F-35 fighter jets to TURKEY, or to impose sanctions on TURKEY under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
However, this week, in my opinion, TURKEY’s acquisition of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile systems has led many to wonder if TURKEY was moving away from its U.S. and Western allies, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be treating the RUSSIAN S-400 as a simple business transaction, as the governing AKP appears to realise how much TURKEY needs U.S. and European support to fuel the TURKISH economy and to maintain NATO security. In my opinion, given the size of the TURKISH economy, occasional partners like RUSSIA and IRAN cannot provide the cash necessary to mitigate a TURKISH economic crisis, while CHINA also seems to be unwilling to provide TURKEY with necessary economic support, as CHINA has been focusing on its own domestic economy issues. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY is more economically dependent on the U.S. and E.U. where trade ties are more balanced overall, compared to large TURKISH trade deficits with RUSSIA and CHINA. Thus, in my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to keep TURKEY within relations with the U.S. and E.U. as this group accounted for over 55% of TURKISH trade last year, with the E.U. alone accounting for over 40%. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY’s economy has recovered from the difficulties it experienced since the end of 2018, but TURKEY should undertake additional reforms because it remains vulnerable to a variety of risks. Thus, in my opinion, positive market sentiment has provided TURKEY with an opportunity to enact additional reforms that would not only address existing vulnerabilities but also would strengthen policy credibility and set the TURKISH economy on a higher and more sustainable growth path.
In my opinion, I was not surprised to see TURKEY focus its attention on IDLIB and continue to warn the SYRIAN regime, RUSSIA and IRAN, that an all-out military offensive on IDLIB could lead to a disastrous outcome for TURKEY, by triggering a new wave of refugees heading towards the TURKISH borders. In my opinion, TURKEY has already sheltered 3.5 million SYRIANS such that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under significant domestic pressure to not take in any more refugees. Nonetheless, RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate but a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA, in recent months, to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, the large quantities of weapons entering SYRIA, in recent months, indicated that TURKEY would be providing complete TURKISH military support for a long drawn-out battle over IDLIB, if necessary. Thus, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.
In regards to this week’s leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in north-western SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, which has backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA last year but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. In regards to this week’s airstrikes once again hitting IDLIB, after a ceasefire was declared 10 days ago, intense airstrikes by RUSSIAN and SYRIAN warplanes accompanying another SYRIAN government push to re-take the area was not surprising. However, the U.S. also carrying out air strikes against an AL-QAEDA facility in IDLIB were surprising as the U.S. for the large part has remained on the sidelines for this battle. Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s eyes. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s trilateral summit aimed to negotiate peace in SYRIA’s last rebel-held stronghold, between the leaders of TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN resulted in a ceasefire in substance that is now currently in effect. Hence, in my opinion, after a four-month offensive in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to cede defeat.
However, in my opinion, this week it was shocking to see more than 70,000 people have been forced to leave their homes in SYRIA, as TURKISH forces pushed further into the northeast of SYRIA against KURDISH YPG forces. Thus, in my opinion, the fighting that has been raging, as TURKISH forces have stepped up their assaults against KURDISH forces that have been pounded relentlessly by TURKISH fighters with air raids and artillery fire amid heavy fighting cannot be justified. In my opinion, the TURKISH government considering the KURDISH YPG as terrorists, by association to the KURDISH PKK, although the KURDISH YPG was the primary U.S. ally in the war against ISIS is absurd. Hence, in my opinion, it is thus obvious that over thirty years of bad blood between TURKEY and the KURDISH PKK has clouded TURKEY’s judgement to the point that they are unable to remain objective and impartial as concerns the KURDS such that their personal animosities have taken control and thus all KURDS are now seen as part of the terrorist mole. Thus, in my opinion, the KURDISH YPG formal statement that the barrage of attacks by TURKEY represents a U.S. betrayal whereby U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon SYRIA’s KURDS is perceived as a knife in the back given that the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS is understandable. In my opinion, the U.S. has effectively sent the message that the KURDISH YPG past exceptional contributions to the war against ISIS is irrelevant in the current context as the U.S. now seeks to re-enforce economic ties with TURKEY that continues to be the so-called U.S. ally in NATO.
In my opinion, the KURDISH YPG have formally stated that the barrage of attacks by TURKEY represents a U.S. betrayal whereby U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon SYRIA’s KURDS is perceived as a knife in the back given that the KURDISH YPG fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY took advantage of opening to pursue its goal of 20 miles deep “safe zone” along SYRIAN side of border being cleared of all KURDISH YPG fighters, where TURKEY wants to resettle up to two million SYRIAN refugees currently living in TURKEY. Hence, I was not surprised to see the RUSSIAN-backed SAA forces entering the town of MANBIJ, as part of a deal reached with KURDISH forces previously allied with the U.S. as this could very well be the turning point for President Bashar al-Assad, for the SAA to return to KURDISH held areas for the first time since 2012, as a sign that SYRIA’s historical borders will remain intact. Ironically, U.S. President Donald Trump has hailed his decision to withdraw U.S. troops in SYRIA, paving the way for a TURKISH offensive, as strategically brilliant, declaring that the KURDISH YPG he had abandoned are much safer now while they were never angels from the outset. However, in my opinion, given that the TURKISH government fears KURDISH YPG forces in SYRIA will link up with Kurdish PKK rebels in TURKEY, who have been fighting for a breakaway KURDISH state for decades, TURKEY has become in substance paranoid, anxious and demented schizophrenics as concerns the KURDS such that TURKEY will gladly accept the label of fools for attacking the KURDISH YPG. Nonetheless, in my opinion, this week, TURKEY reached an agreement with the U.S. to pause its military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces because TURKEY believes that it is closer to something it has long sought, consisting of that precious piece of territory in northern SYRIA, that TURKEY wants to formally designate as a safe zone. However, in my opinion, the KURDISH fighters have not received the six-day ultimatum well, as the KURDS obviously anticipated retaining parts of these safe zone territories after having defeated ISIS with U.S. military support. Nonetheless, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump stood by TURKEY’s six-day ultimatum by stating that TURKEY has done what the U.S. has asked TURKEY to do. Thus, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump defines the situation as under very good control, on the basis that, the U.S. did not lose any soldiers, did not have any soldiers hurt and did not have a finger broken which is unusual, while the U.S. now has thousands of soldiers moving out of SYRIA.

 

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.
U.S. President Donald Trump has obviously capitalized on worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and long-time arch-nemesis IRAN that have been escalating, while recently being heightened by suspected attacks on two oil tankers that the U.S. blamed on IRAN, although IRAN obviously denied any responsibility. In my opinion, it is not surprising that the House approved resolutions on blocking U.S. President Donald Trump’s emergency arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA and other GULF allies. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump succeeded with his third veto as the Trump Administration argued that the arms sales are necessary because of what it calls heightened threats from IRAN. However, in my opinion, it is important to note that U.S. President Donald Trump is now focusing his efforts on strengthening ties with SAUDIA ARABIA and UAE, while U.S. Congress persists to challenge him every step of way, as bipartisan majority in U.S. Congress fed up with U.S. President Donald Trump’s deference to SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, which has allowed those countries to act with impunity under his Administration’s policies. In my opinion, this week, U.S. President Donald Trump obviously supported SAUDI ARABIA and Crown Prince MBS, while some members of the ruling family and business elite expressed their frustrations with Crown Prince MBS’s leadership, that have increased after recent largest-ever attack on SAUDI ARABIA’s oil infrastructure. In my opinion, the recent attack has sparked concern among several prominent branches of the ruling AL SAUD family, which numbers about 10,000, about Crown Prince MBS’s ability to defend and lead the world’s largest oil exporter. Furthermore, in my opinion, the recent oil attack has also fuelled discontent among some in elite circles who believe that Crown Prince MBS has sought too tight a grip on power while pursuing an overly aggressive stance towards IRAN.
In my opinion, this week’s U.S. and SAUDI ARABIA stepped up efforts to protect SAUDI ARABIA’s oil production, holding talks on connecting SAUDI ARABIAN missile defenses to U.S. systems and investigating new anti-drone technologies, after recent attacks knocked out half of SAUDI ARABIA’s crude oil production are not surprising. In my opinion, although U.S. President Donald Trump is wisely resisting starting a new war in the MIDDLE EAST, his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, that IRAN has chose to weather the storm, has put him on the spot to do something, especially after recent attacks on SAUDI ARABIA oil facilities. Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. Administration has been focused on the U.S. imposed sanctions, with the U.S. having already sanctioned almost every sanctionable thing in IRANIAN economy, including placing a terrorist designation on IRANIAN central bank. However, in my opinion, the Trump Administration is now also trying to appear tough by dispatching 1,800 more U.S. troops to SAUDI ARABIA, while reconciling this deployment with his statements that it is a mistake to be in the MIDDLE EAST, by stating that SAUDI ARABIA is a very good ally and has agreed to pay the U.S. for everything U.S. doing. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s visit by U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, who met with King Salman and Crown Prince MBS, as U.S. pursues biggest MIDDLE EAST troop build-up of Trump Administration, to discuss military and defense cooperation, was not surprising. Thus, in my opinion, it seems that recent U.S. moves have alleviated any issues with investor confidence, as investor demand was high for this week’s SAUDI ARABIA ten-year bond that was priced at 127 basis points over the benchmark index. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA successfully sold US$ 2.5 billion worth of ISLAMIC bonds, or SUKUK, returning to bond market to take advantage of low borrowing costs in hopes of replenishing SAUDI ARABIA coffers from persistently low oil prices that have depressed government revenues.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right strategic decision by flexing American muscle, with additional troop deployments in the hundreds, along with defensive equipment heading to the MIDDLE EAST, including Patriot missile batteries and enhanced radars, while demonstrating restraint with straight to the point rhetoric. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s response was perfect, as he clearly stated that showing restraint shows far more strength than launching military strikes, while he wanted to avoid an all-out war with IRAN, which has denied responsibility for the attack. Furthermore, I agree with U.S. President Donald Trump that the strong person’s approach is showing restraint, while it is much easier to do it the other way, as IRAN knows that if they misbehave, they are on borrowed time, albeit the U.S. also knows that wars are easy to start but extremely difficult to end. Therefore, in my opinion, it is best for the U.S. to take its time before launching any retaliatory strikes against IRAN, as the damage as a result of the strike to the SAUDI ARABIAN oil facilities has already been done, while the damage by any retaliatory strike would have far reaching consequences across the entire MIDDLE EAST.
However, I was not surprised to see, that SAUDI ARABIA focused its attention on the HOUTHI rebels as YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels crossed the border into neighbouring SAUDI ARABIA, currently leading a military coalition against them, while taking control of more than 20 positions. In my opinion, given that NAJRAN is strategically located adjacent to the YEMENI border, it is not surprising that the military sites in NAJRAN were captured in a surprise offensive, as the YEMENI rebels appear to have chosen to launch this offensive as the U.S. is preparing to ramp up the SAUDI ARABIAN military arsenal, in essence sending SAUDI ARABIA a subliminal message that the YEMENI rebels still have IRANIAN backed power to launch artillery showers. Furthermore, given that the HOUTHI rebel raids come amid heightened regional tensions, after the U.S. accused IRAN of shooting down a U.S. drone over international waters and of carrying out attacks on oil tankers in the strategic Gulf of Oman, the HOUTHI rebels are in essence lending further support to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to exercise his veto power and push through the US$ 8 billion in arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA.
In regards to the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE coalition subsequently unleashing air raids on YEMEN’s capital targeting several air defence sites and ballistic missile depots in SANAA, it was not surprising as coalition forces warned that they would attack YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels, aimed at what they called legitimate rebel targets in the capital, SANAA. However, in my opinion, YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels refuse to cede to the onslaught of air force attacks, and have thus been forced to resort to guerrilla warfare tactics, with drone attacks that target radars and military sites at SAUDIA ARABIAN air bases. In regards to the UAE, part of the SAUDI ARABIAN led military coalition in YEMEN, stating that it is not leaving the war-torn country despite an ongoing withdrawal and redeployment of UAE forces, it is my opinion that at this stage, a pre-mature withdrawal by UAE forces would create a vacuum in YEMEN, as it trained about 90,000 local fighters such that the UAE must remain committed to the coalition and the deposed YEMENI government.
In regards to this week’s HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA appears to be experiencing a form of self-fulfilling prophesy, in the sense that the HOUTHI rebels had nothing to do with IRAN until SAUDI ARABIA got involved. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as the HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN. Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to cede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. Unfortunately, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that the STC fighters now control the port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between the sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see the total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their sphere of influence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will almost certainly require a de-escalation of tensions across the MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can come about only if the U.S and Iran reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, for now, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with Iran does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major Arab country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.

 

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
Furthermore, in my opinion, the Middle East is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and the threat of war between the U.S. and IRAN, while it is certain that IRAQ would be caught in the middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ is still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow the U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in the background, as he has stated that one of the reasons he wants to keep a base in IRAQ was to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN, because IRAN is a real problem, although when asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump clearly stated no as all he wanted to do in IRAQ was monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wanted to make sure that there were no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In regards to this week’s leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in northwestern SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, which has backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA last year but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. In regards to this week’s airstrikes once again hitting IDLIB, after a ceasefire was declared 10 days ago, intense airstrikes by RUSSIAN and SYRIAN warplanes accompanying another SYRIAN government push to re-take the area was not surprising. However, the U.S. also carrying out air strikes against an AL-QAEDA facility in IDLIB were surprising as the U.S. for the large part has remained on the sidelines for this battle.
Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s eyes. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s trilateral summit aimed to negotiate peace in SYRIA’s last rebel-held stronghold, between the leaders of TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN resulted in a ceasefire in substance that is now currently in effect. Hence, in my opinion, after a four-month offensive in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to cede defeat. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the SAA and RUSSIA are now once again seriously considering a new offensive in IDLIB, after several days of exchanging fire with HTS rebels near the demilitarized zone, as patience is wearing thin in IDLIB and western ALEPPO after several ceasefire violations by HTS rebels. In my opinion, the SAA has responded to ceasefire violations, but they have not yet launched any storming operation against HTS and their allies because they seem to be waiting to see if TURKEY will dismantle HTS, before the SAA military launches a new offensive to further weaken HTS rebels.

 

IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions
In my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions and maximum pressure campaign are forcing IRAN to focus on its own problems, as for years, IRAN was one of the chief enablers and financiers of the NORTH KOREAN nuclear and ballistic threat. However, in my opinion, with 50% inflation and food prices that have risen 85%, IRAN does not have the excess cash IRAN used to have to engage in disruption. Thus, in my opinion, to this point, the U.S. has made the right moves with regards to IRAN but what IRAN will do next will be absolutely critical. However, in my opinion, the imminent threat these days comes from IRAN’s Defense Ministry that warned that any ISRAELI involvement in a U.S. led naval operation into the Strait of Hormuz, would have disastrous consequences for the MIDDLE EAST. Furthermore, in my opinion, this week’s news that a secret cyber attack against IRAN in June of 2019 wiped out a critical database used by IRAN’s paramilitary arm to plot attacks against oil tankers that degraded IRAN’s ability to covertly target shipping traffic in PERSIAN GULF, at least temporarily, is not surprising. In my opinion, senior U.S. officials discussed the results of the strike in part to quell doubts within the Trump Administration about whether the benefits of the operation outweighed the costs, as lost intelligence and lost access to a critical network used by IRAN’s Revolutionary Guards paramilitary forces, obviously crippled IRAN’s abilities to attack oil tankers, such that it would appear that the benefits outweighed the costs. In my opinion, the U.S. and IRAN have long been involved in an undeclared cyber conflict, a conflict carefully concealed to remain in the gray zone between war and peace, while effectively hurting the opposition without a trace.
In my opinion, this week’s IRANIAN oil tanker cruising 60 miles off the coast of SAUDI ARABIA being rocked by a pair of missiles that briefly triggered an oil leak was not surprising as SAUDI ARABIA chose to strike in retaliation for IRAN’s recent attack on SAUDI ARABIA oil infrastructure. However, in my opinion, the SAUDI ARABIA strike threatens to further inflame sensitive regional tensions between IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA, the two biggest players in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, this latest incident, if confirmed to be an act of aggression by SAUDI ARABIA, is highly likely to be part of the wider narrative of deteriorating relations between SAUDI ARABIA and the U.S. against IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, it is likely that the MIDDLE EAST will face another period of increasing maritime threats, as the geopolitical standoff between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN continues. In my opinion, there has been no word from SAUDI ARABIA about the reported attack albeit oil prices jumped by 2% immediately after the news was released, as speculations soared about increasing future threats in Maritimes. Thus, I believe that the SAUDI ARABIA retaliatory strike was inevitable, as the IRANIAN regime has been waging a deliberate campaign to destabilize the MIDDLE EAST and impose costs on the international economy via collateral damage from strikes on oil infrastructure.
However, in my opinion, IRAN’s President Hassan Rouhani kept the door open to diplomacy, backing EUROPEAN efforts to salvage 2015 Nuclear Deal, despite rebuffing FRANCE attempts to broker meeting between him and U.S. President Donald Trump at U.N. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Iran agreed to a four-point plan for talks with the U.S. during the U.N. General Assembly as it was brokered by FRANCE that IRAN considers to be neutral, until U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase sanctions against IRAN, as per IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, who also stated that FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron presented him with a plan that appeared acceptable. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani confirm that the four-point program stipulated that IRAN should not seek nuclear weapons, should abide by regional peace, help to contribute to peace, and, in exchange, the U.S. would lift all sanctions against IRAN and allow IRANIAN exports immediately, as the lifting of sanctions immediately form the backbone of the plan.
Hence, I agree with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assessment that IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani needs to be on the side of the swimming pool and jump at the same time. However, IRAN seems to have extreme difficulties in putting its pride aside as IRAN’s President left U.S. President Donald Trump hanging, and FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron in the Hall, as the telephone line had been secretly set up, with U.S. President Donald Trump waiting on other end. Therefore, in my opinion, all IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani of IRAN had to do was come out of his hotel suite and walk into a secure room where U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice would be diffused via speaker. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani was nowhere to be found, albeit IRAN was surprised by the offer, as it was never before discussed bur rather presented by FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron as a broker in a last minute deal. In my opinion, one possibility is for the U.S. to stay away from the 2015 Nuclear Deal, while removing secondary sanctions, so that other countries, namely in EUROPE, can do business with IRAN, while in return, IRAN can accept some adjustments in the JCPOA and agree to extend some provisions that are due to expire soon.
In my opinion, it has become blatantly obvious that IRAN operates in the grey zone as concerns decisions towards U.S., whereby IRAN takes decisions between peace and open military conflict, by denying use of force to minimize consequences and future escalations. Thus, in my opinion, given that IRAN has been able to survive U.S. imposed sanctions that have now reached a climax, with limited possibilities for additional future sanctions, the U.S. should contest IRAN in the gray zone. That is, in my opinion, to restore deterrence while minimizing the risks of escalations, the U.S. should also consider using limited U.S. military actions that fly under the radar screen like IRAN, but which IRAN still recognizes as executed by the U.S. In my opinion, the U.S. should adopt a similar military policy like IRAN to operate in the grey zone with covert military strikes on strategic assets without accepting any formal responsibilities in order to minimize the risk of a full blown military conflict. Furthermore, in my opinion, this week’s statement by ISRAEL that it was bracing for direct cruise missiles or drone attacks by IRAN in response to strikes against IRAN’s regional proxies, namely HEZBOLLAH, attributed to ISRAEL, IRAN has made it clear that it will retaliate against ISRAEL under an eye for an eye philosophy. Thus, in my opinion, ISRAEL specified cruise missiles or drones because unlike traditional ballistic missiles that usually fly through a high arc on their way to the target, cruise missiles and drones fly at relatively low altitudes, making them harder to detect by the ISRAELI Iron Dome missile defense system. In my opinion, IRAN appears to have been building up its cruise missiles and drones in recent months following attacks by IRAELI fighter jets that carried out airstrikes in SYRIA to prevent a planned attack on ISRAEL by IRAN-backed fighters.
Thus, in my opinion, after ISRAEL targeted its strikes on operatives from IRAN’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as SHIITE militias consisting mainly of HEZBOLLAH, who had been planning on sending kamikaze attack cruise missiles and drones into ISRAEL armed with explosives, ISRAEL obviously knows that IRAN will strike as soon as an opening is available. In my opinion, IRAN regularly threatens ISRAEL, viewing ISRAEL as a powerful enemy allied with the U.S. and SUNNI countries in the MIDDLE EAST against IRAN and its nuclear ambitions such that an attack on ISRAEL by IRAN, if it came, would likely be launched from western IRAQ, where there is a strong presence of IRAN-backed militias. Thus, in my opinion, for every action in the MIDDLE EAST, there seems to be an equal and opposing reaction, such that ISRAEL’s vow to prevent IRAN’s regional proxy militias from obtaining advanced weapons to use against ISRAEL has resulted in ISRAEL carrying out hundreds of air strikes in SYRIA that ISRAEL says were necessary to prevent deliver of weapons and to stop IRANIAN military entrenchment in SYRIA, albeit knowing full well that IRAN would retaliate under the right circumstances.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 374” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as TURKEY reached agreement with U.S. to pause military offensive against KURDISH YPG forces, as TURKEY believes close to formally designating safe zone area in SYRIA, albeit KURDISH fighters disenchanted with six-day ultimatum, as KURDS anticipated retaining parts of safe zone territories after defeating ISIS with U.S., but U.S. President Donald Trump stated TURKEY did what U.S. asked TURKEY to do, while U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, met with King Salman & Crown Prince MBS, as U.S. pursues biggest MIDDLE EAST troop build-up of Trump Administration, to discuss military and defense cooperation, alleviating issues with investor confidence, as investor demand was high for this week’s SAUDI ARABIA ten-year bonds, to replenish SAUDI ARABIA coffers from low oil prices, while ISRAEL bracing for direct cruise missiles or drone attacks by IRAN, in response to strikes against IRAN’s regional proxies, namely HEZBOLLAH, as IRAN pledged to retaliate against ISRAEL, under an eye for an eye philosophy, as cruise missiles & drones fly at relatively low altitudes, making them harder to detect by ISRAELI Iron Dome missile defense system, as for every action in MIDDLE EAST, tends to be equal & opposing reaction.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:



October 27, 2019