World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 371

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 371” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as there is resentment now within ruling AL SAUD family, angry that Crown Prince MBS military leadership not able to detect oil attack, albeit Crown Prince MBS still has strong inner circle loyal & faithful to him, who argue stance against IRAN patriotic, such that IRAN strong response inevitable in new geopolitical landscape, whereby significant military strikes can transpire without anyone taking formal responsibility, such that Crown Prince MBS aggressive foreign policy towards IRAN & involvement in war in YEMEN exposed SAUDI ARABIA to this attack, while U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he would use ultimate option, military strike, if necessary, while IRAN foreign minister warned that IRAN would consider even limited attack as all-out war, albeit there may still exist possibility of reaching stable equilibrium, despite relentless pressures towards escalations, whereby IRAN can continue to chant death to America for regime survival, while U.S. can continue demonizing & controlling IRAN via sanctions, with U.S. choosing to stay away from 2015 Nuclear Deal, while removing secondary sanctions, so that other countries, namely in EUROPE, can do business with IRAN, while in return, IRAN can accept some adjustments in 2015 Nuclear Deal & agree to extend some provisions due to expire soon.

 

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

Although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued this week to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, this week’s news from TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak urging foreign investors to once again put their funds into TURKEY’s expanding economy is not surprising, as TURKISH companies are cushioned against bankruptcy, with cash reserves that add up to US$ 6.5 billion more than their debts while TURKEY’s own debt levels are also low compared to other countries. In my opinion, although there is a recession going on right now in TURKEY, it has not yet turned into an economic crisis, despite all of the instability and incredible fall in the value of the TURKISH Lira. Furthermore, in my opinion, most economies would have collapsed, but TURKEY has a very dynamic economy given that TURKISH people seem to have grown accustomed to instability. Nonetheless, it appears that TURKEY will now likely be facing an L-Type crisis consisting of an economic downturn characterized by a sharp decline followed by a slow recovery that takes at least two years to return to healthy growth levels because of the breadth of the capital market drawn into the economic crisis and the TURKISH government’s lack of ability to manoeuvre.
Thus, in my opinion, this week it does appear that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may end up losing the long-term game of bringing TURKISH interest rates lower, after installing a new TURKISH central bank governor. Thus, in my opinion, interest rate cuts will begin in July of 2019, and probably proceed until interest rates fall to 17% or slightly lower, before the TURKISH Lira exchange rates and financial consequences wreak havoc. However, in my opinion, it does appear that the easing of interest rates is set to begin with a reduction from 24% to 22% shortly, while the interest rate will eventually fall to 14.5% in the first quarter of 2021. In regards to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan making it clear that he expects the TURKISH central bank to respect his calls for interest rate cuts, after the shake-up following an interest rate policy pause that lasted for more than nine months, it is obvious that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is convinced that higher interest rates cause inflation, such that his replacement will now provide stronger support for the TURKISH government’s economic program. Furthermore, in my opinion, the interest rate stimulus will come in handy, for a TURKISH economy struggling to gain momentum, as it now appears there will be a deeper contraction through the third quarter of 2019 than previously forecast, before Gross Domestic Product (GDP) returns to annual growth.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may remain convinced that his enemies are out to get him, but it is difficult to hold foreign powers responsible for TURKEY remaining in recession, following a disastrous 2018 TURKISH Lira currency crisis, along with current fears that a new financial crunch is imminent, as unemployment and inflation in TURKEY are elevated, while business is depressed. Thus, in my opinion, the announcement by the TURKISH central bank that it was cutting its key policy interest rate to 19.75%, from 24%, and setting the stage for more, was not surprising. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak made it clear that with the important reduction of interest rates in TURKEY, and based on the fact that the interest rate trend will come down more strongly in the future, TURKEY has entered a period of interest rate cuts, while stressing that the TURKISH central bank makes its monetary policy and interest rate decisions based on its own data set. However, in my opinion, TURKEY was forced to lower interest rates as economic confidence in TURKEY fell during July of 2019, to 80.7 from 83.4 in June of 2019, while any reading below 100 indicates pessimism about the future among businesses and consumers.
In regards to this week’s TURKISH inflation slowing down sharply into single digits, I expect another showdown between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his new central banker, Murat Uysal, who hinted at limited room for more monetary easing. In my opinion, given that the inflation rate dropped to an annual 9.3% during September’ 2019 from 15% in August, TURKEY’s real interest rate is now among the highest in emerging markets, such that the big challenge will now be to manage the political aspects of the gap between the current TURKISH government policy interest rate at 16.5% and a single-digit inflation rate. Therefore, in my opinion, the good news could turn into a headache for TURKISH Bank Governor, Murat Uysal, whose predecessor was fired for not cutting interest rates fast enough. Nonetheless, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains fixated on lower interest rates, which he believes would only curb inflation, while Murat Uysal signalled this month that the TURKISH central bank might look to moderate its pace of interest rate cuts, after monetary easing that took place between July to September of 2019, in anticipation of a decrease in inflation. However, in my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s quest for TURKEY’s economic rebirth is already struggling while setting out a goal of 5% growth for 2020-2022 after slashing this year’s forecast near zero. Thus, despite the expectation of TURKEY’s economy suddenly awakening months after recession, the rest of the outlook is leaving the world in a state of shock, in the sense of too good to be true. In my opinion, the assumption by the governing AKP of a quick TURKISH take-off will require little fiscal stimulus, even after the TURKISH central bank stated that its monetary easing over the last several months left limited policy space. In my opinion, TURKEY also anticipates that an economic surge is possible without triggering a rise in inflation and generating a huge gap in the current account that haunted TURKEY’s previous economic recoveries.

 

However, this week, in my opinion, TURKEY’s acquisition of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile systems has led many to wonder if TURKEY was moving away from its U.S. and Western allies, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be treating the RUSSIAN S-400 as a simple business transaction, as the governing AKP appears to realise how much TURKEY needs U.S. and European support to fuel the TURKISH economy and to maintain NATO security. In my opinion, given the size of the TURKISH economy, occasional partners like RUSSIA and IRAN cannot provide the cash necessary to mitigate a TURKISH economic crisis, while CHINA also seems to be unwilling to provide TURKEY with necessary economic support, as CHINA has been focusing on its own domestic economy issues. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY is more economically dependent on the U.S. and E.U. where trade ties are more balanced overall, compared to large TURKISH trade deficits with RUSSIA and CHINA. Thus, in my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to keep TURKEY within relations with the U.S. and E.U. as this group accounted for over 55% of TURKISH trade last year, with the E.U. alone accounting for over 40%. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY’s economy has recovered from the difficulties it experienced since the end of 2018, but TURKEY should undertake additional reforms because it remains vulnerable to a variety of risks. Thus, in my opinion, positive market sentiment has provided TURKEY with an opportunity to enact additional reforms that would not only address existing vulnerabilities but also would strengthen policy credibility and set the TURKISH economy on a higher and more sustainable growth path.

 

In my opinion, despite strong support from the RUSSIAN air forces, the SAA regime has remained on the periphery of IDLIB while being unable to advance, as TURKEY’s support for HTS rebels has presented the greatest challenge to the Bashar al-Assad regime around IDLIB, as TURKEY does not wish to give SYRIA’s northern regions to its NATO ally the U.S., or any other power. Hence, in my opinion, RUSSIA and SYRIA have stepped up their airstrikes against civilians in IDLIB, as war monitors and rebel commanders in northern SYRIA stated that RUSSIAN and SAA regime air strikes had intensified in civilian areas, of the last bastion of opposition to President Bashar Al-Assad. Furthermore, in my opinion, the U.N. official that condemned world leaders for ignoring attacks on non-military targets, calling the situation in IDLIB a catastrophe, that the world has ignored, summarizes the realities on the ground whereby since April of 2019, the SAA regime offensive against HTS rebel groups in IDLIB has killed at least 400 people, including 90 children, with at least 62 people having been killed across IDLIB since last week alone. Furthermore, in my opinion, RUSSIAN and SAA regime air strikes appear to be revenge for the popular support of the TURKISH backed National Liberation Front (NLF).
In regards to this week’s leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in north-western SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, which has backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA last year but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. In regards to this week’s airstrikes once again hitting IDLIB, after a ceasefire was declared 10 days ago, intense airstrikes by RUSSIAN and SYRIAN warplanes accompanying another SYRIAN government push to re-take the area was not surprising. However, the U.S. also carrying out air strikes against an AL-QAEDA facility in IDLIB were surprising as the U.S. for the large part has remained on the sidelines for this battle. Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s eyes. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s trilateral summit aimed to negotiate peace in SYRIA’s last rebel-held stronghold, between the leaders of TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN resulted in a ceasefire in substance that is now currently in effect. Hence, in my opinion, after a four-month offensive in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to cede defeat.

 

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

I

U.S. President Donald Trump has obviously capitalized on worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and long-time arch-nemesis IRAN that have been escalating, while recently being heightened by suspected attacks on two oil tankers that the U.S. blamed on IRAN, although IRAN obviously denied any responsibility. In my opinion, it is not surprising that the House approved resolutions on blocking U.S. President Donald Trump’s emergency arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA and other GULF allies. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump succeeded with his third veto as the Trump Administration argued that the arms sales are necessary because of what it calls heightened threats from IRAN. However, in my opinion, it is important to note that U.S. President Donald Trump is now focusing his efforts on strengthening ties with SAUDIA ARABIA and UAE, while U.S. Congress persists to challenge him every step of way, as bipartisan majority in U.S. Congress fed up with U.S. President Donald Trump’s deference to SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, which has allowed those countries to act with impunity under his Administration’s policies. In my opinion, this week, U.S. President Donald Trump obviously supported SAUDI ARABIA and Crown Prince MBS, while some members of the ruling family and business elite expressed their frustrations with Crown Prince MBS’s leadership, that have increased after recent largest-ever attack on SAUDI ARABIA’s oil infrastructure. In my opinion, the recent attack has sparked concern among several prominent branches of the ruling AL SAUD family, which numbers about 10,000, about Crown Prince MBS’s ability to defend and lead the world’s largest oil exporter. Furthermore, in my opinion, the recent oil attack has also fuelled discontent among some in elite circles who believe that Crown Prince MBS has sought too tight a grip on power while pursuing an overly aggressive stance towards IRAN.
In my opinion, there is a lot of resentment now within the ruling AL SAUD family, who are angry that Crown Prince MBS military leadership were not able to detect the oil attack, to the point that some people in elite circles have stated that they have no confidence in Crown Prince MBS. However, in my opinion, Crown Prince MBS still has a strong inner circle that are loyal and faithful to him, such that the latest events will not affect him personally, as a ruler because he is trying to stop IRANIAN expansion in the MIDDLE EAST. Thus, in my opinion, those within his inner circle will argue that Crown Prince MBS stance against IRAN is a patriotic issue against IRAN, such that IRAN’s strong response is inevitable, while Crown Prince MBS will likely not be in danger of termination, at least as long as his father lives, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA may have underestimated IRAN’s risk appetite for a direct strike on SAUDI ARABIA oil infrastructure, while it is challenging to defend the entire SAUDI ARABIAN territory because of SAUDI ARABIA’s large size and scale of threats. However, in my opinion, political stability is critical in SAUDI ARABIA as the world’s largest oil exporter and key U.S. ally in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, given that Crown Prince MBS is officially next in line to the throne to his 83-year-old father, King Salman, and is the de facto ruler of SAUDI ARABIA, who has pledged to transform SAUDI ARABIA into a modern state, it is highly unlikely that the recent oil attack will trigger a change in control. Furthermore, in my opinion, the 34-year-old Crown Prince MBS is extremely popular among young SAUDI ARABIANS, from whom he has received strong praise at home for easing social restrictions in the conservative MUSLIM kingdom, by granting women more rights and pledging to diversify SAUDI ARABIA’s oil-dependent economy. Thus, in my opinion, the oil attack that set ablaze two state owned plants of oil giant SAUDI ARAMCO, initially knocking out half of SAUDI ARABIA’s oil production, that SAUDI ARABIA and the U.S. blame on IRAN while IRAN denies any responsibility, demonstrates that we live in a new geopolitical landscape whereby significant military strikes can transpire without anyone taking formal responsibility. Thus, in my opinion, the magnitude of these attacks has nothing to do with the fact that Crown Prince MBS is Minister of Defence and his brother, deputy defence minister, but yet arguably SAUDI ARABIA has suffered its largest attack ever and on its crown jewel, the oil infrastructure. Hence, in my opinion, Crown Prince MBS’s aggressive foreign policy towards IRAN and involvement in the war in YEMEN exposed SAUDI ARABIA to this attack. Therefore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN air defences have stopped hundreds of ballistic missiles and dozens of drones coming into SAUDI ARABIA, albeit the realities that it is extremely difficult to detect small objects that fly at three hundred feet of altitude, such that the recent attack was professionally orchestrated with sophisticated weaponry.
In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right strategic decision by flexing American muscle, with additional troop deployments in the hundreds, along with defensive equipment heading to the MIDDLE EAST, including Patriot missile batteries and enhanced radars, while demonstrating restraint with straight to the point rhetoric. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump’s response was perfect, as he clearly stated that showing restraint shows far more strength than launching military strikes, while he wanted to avoid an all-out war with IRAN, which has denied responsibility for the attack. Furthermore, I agree with U.S. President Donald Trump that the strong person’s approach is showing restraint, while it is much easier to do it the other way, as IRAN knows that if they misbehave, they are on borrowed time, albeit the U.S. also knows that wars are easy to start but extremely difficult to end. Therefore, in my opinion, it is best for the U.S. to take its time before launching any retaliatory strikes against IRAN, as the damage as a result of the strike to the SAUDI ARABIAN oil facilities has already been done, while the damage by any retaliatory strike would have far reaching consequences across the entire MIDDLE EAST.
In regards to U.S. Democratic senators still being frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region, it has become clear almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, that Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. However, in my opinion, this week, it was evident how what would appear to be two very different developments, were in fact part of same story, as the Jamal Khashoggi killing triggered the UAE and SAUDI ARABIA to announce that they would provide a joint $ 200 million in urgent aid for people in YEMEN. In my opinion, civilians in YEMEN struggling to buy food to break their fast culminating after four consecutive years of civil war, that has resulted in the YEMEN currency sinking to its lowest levels in history, while the cost of food has soared, has triggering a major food crisis like YEMEN has never before seen.
However, I was not surprised to see, that SAUDI ARABIA focused its attention on the HOUTHI rebels as YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels crossed the border into neighbouring SAUDI ARABIA, currently leading a military coalition against them, while taking control of more than 20 positions. In my opinion, given that NAJRAN is strategically located adjacent to the YEMENI border, it is not surprising that the military sites in NAJRAN were captured in a surprise offensive, as the YEMENI rebels appear to have chosen to launch this offensive as the U.S. is preparing to ramp up the SAUDI ARABIAN military arsenal, in essence sending SAUDI ARABIA a subliminal message that the YEMENI rebels still have IRANIAN backed power to launch artillery showers. Furthermore, given that the HOUTHI rebel raids come amid heightened regional tensions, after the U.S. accused IRAN of shooting down a U.S. drone over international waters and of carrying out attacks on oil tankers in the strategic Gulf of Oman, the HOUTHI rebels are in essence lending further support to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to exercise his veto power and push through the US$ 8 billion in arms sales to SAUDI ARABIA.
In regards to the SAUDI ARABIAN and UAE coalition subsequently unleashing air raids on YEMEN’s capital targeting several air defence sites and ballistic missile depots in SANAA, it was not surprising as coalition forces warned that they would attack YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels, aimed at what they called legitimate rebel targets in the capital, SANAA. However, in my opinion, YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels refuse to cede to the onslaught of air force attacks, and have thus been forced to resort to guerrilla warfare tactics, with drone attacks that target radars and military sites at SAUDIA ARABIAN air bases. In regards to the UAE, part of the SAUDI ARABIAN led military coalition in YEMEN, stating that it is not leaving the war-torn country despite an ongoing withdrawal and redeployment of UAE forces, it is my opinion that at this stage, a pre-mature withdrawal by UAE forces would create a vacuum in YEMEN, as it trained about 90,000 local fighters such that the UAE must remain committed to the coalition and the deposed YEMENI government.
In regards to this week’s HOUTHI rebels continuing to violate the HODEIDA agreement, SAUDI ARABIA appears to be experiencing a form of self-fulfilling prophesy, in the sense that the HOUTHI rebels had nothing to do with IRAN until SAUDI ARABIA got involved. However, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA seems to have mastered the art of war with the HOUTHI rebels by consistently intercepting drones fired from SANAA, as the HOUTHI rebels have fired dozens of missiles and drones into SAUDI ARABIA, but most of them have been successfully intercepted by SAUDI ARABIA, preventing them from reaching their targets. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA led effort to crush the rebellion by IRAN-aligned HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN appears to be in a stalemate, as neither party ready nor willing to relinquish control. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE coalition have succeeded in preventing a strategic control disaster by preventing HOUTHI rebels from capturing BAB AL-MANDEB, a critical transportation point between the RED SEA and the GULF OF ADEN. Nonetheless, in my opinion, HOUTHI rebels remain in control of YEMEN capital, SANAA, a considerable part of YEMEN coast and main urban centers of YEMEN due to their sheer resilience to cede defeat, while being supported by IRAN. Unfortunately, in my opinion, anti-HOUTHI rebel forces, have now turned on one another, with the UAE-backed SOUTHERN TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (STC) challenging SAUDI ARABIA supported forces aligned with official YEMENI government led by Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, such that the STC fighters now control the port of ADEN, with potential for further clashes between the sides escalating over time. Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA would like to see the total defeat of HOUTHI rebels but have proved unable to accomplish this military objective, while UAE now seems to be focused on securing Red Sea shipping lines and restricting influence of SUNNI Islamist forces in areas under YEMEN government control. In my opinion, on-going series of attacks by YEMEN rebels is testimony to military confidence of HOUTHI rebels, who are no longer facing an existential threat to their sphere of influence, but rather have now built firm foundations in their area of control, forming a key force along the broader IRAN-led regional block.
However, in my opinion, an enduring settlement in YEMEN will almost certainly require a de-escalation of tensions across the MIDDLE EAST, which in turn, can come about only if the U.S and Iran reach some kind of binding geopolitical agreement. Nonetheless, in my opinion, for now, U.S. President Donald Trump appears determined on continuing his maximum pressure campaign against IRAN, while supplying SAUDI ARABIA with additional weapons, albeit a war with Iran does not appear to be an option at this stage. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major Arab country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.
IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as a prime focus of the discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. However, in my opinion, the shadow of senior ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi hovered over IRAQ this week, as rumours continued to circulate, that the latest video of him filmed in a remote location might very well be IRAQ. However, I was not surprised to see this week that IRAQI President Barham Salih focused on U.S. and IRANIAN tensions by clearly stating that war is the last thing the MIDDLE EAST needs, as the last war on terror against ISIS has not yet been completed.
Furthermore, in my opinion, the Middle East is definitely overshadowed by rising tensions and the threat of war between the U.S. and IRAN, while it is certain that IRAQ would be caught in the middle of such a conflict, as IRAQ is still a base for thousands of U.S. troops and IRANIAN paramilitary units. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih was obligated to make it clear that under no circumstances will IRAQ allow the U.S. to use its bases in IRAQ to launch any attacks on neighbouring IRAN. In my opinion, with mounting tensions between the U.S. and IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice resonates in the background, as he has stated that one of the reasons he wants to keep a base in IRAQ was to be able to look a little bit closer at IRAN, because IRAN is a real problem, although when asked if he meant that his intention was to be able to attack IRAN, U.S. President Donald Trump clearly stated no as all he wanted to do in IRAQ was monitor IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, IRAQI President Barham Salih wanted to make sure that there were no miscommunications, misinterpretations or over analysis creating any erroneous perception of monitoring somehow being converted into launching attacks, as IRAQ knows very well that although it may be quite easy to start a war, it is very difficult to end a war.

 

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In regards to this week’s leaders of RUSSIA and TURKEY stating that they shared deep concerns over fighting in northwestern SYRIA, with TURKEY warning that it would take the steps necessary to protect its troops there, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin hit the nail on the head by clearly stating that he hoped to work together with TURKEY to ease tensions in IDLIB province. Thus, in my opinion, I was surprised to see RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin adopt a sympathetic tone with TURKEY by stating that RUSSIA understands TURKEY’s concerns regarding the security of its southern border, while RUSSIA believes that TURKEY has legitimate interests. Hence, in my opinion, troops from TURKEY, which has backed some rebel groups against President Bashar Al-Assad, are stationed in IDLIB as part of a buffer zone deal reached with RUSSIA last year but the situation in IDLIB has become so complicated, that at this moment TURKISH troops are in danger. In regards to this week’s airstrikes once again hitting IDLIB, after a ceasefire was declared 10 days ago, intense airstrikes by RUSSIAN and SYRIAN warplanes accompanying another SYRIAN government push to re-take the area was not surprising. However, the U.S. also carrying out air strikes against an AL-QAEDA facility in IDLIB were surprising as the U.S. for the large part has remained on the sidelines for this battle.
Thus, in my opinion, the dominant force in IDLIB consisting of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance formerly known as the NUSRA FRONT, which cut ties to AL-QAEDA in 2016, seems to be a thorn in everybody’s eyes. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s trilateral summit aimed to negotiate peace in SYRIA’s last rebel-held stronghold, between the leaders of TURKEY, RUSSIA and IRAN resulted in a ceasefire in substance that is now currently in effect. Hence, in my opinion, after a four-month offensive in IDLIB by SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces that has caused a massive outflow of refugees to TURKEY, all parties seem to realize that there cannot be peace in IDLIB by force as the HTS rebels refuse to cede defeat. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the SAA and RUSSIA are now once again seriously considering a new offensive in IDLIB, after several days of exchanging fire with HTS rebels near the demilitarized zone, as patience is wearing thin in IDLIB and western ALEPPO after several ceasefire violations by HTS rebels. In my opinion, the SAA has responded to ceasefire violations, but they have not yet launched any storming operation against HTS and their allies because they seem to be waiting to see if TURKEY will dismantle HTS, before the SAA military launches a new offensive to further weaken HTS rebels.

 

IRAN News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

 

In regards to the statement by IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani that IRAN would exceed the enrichment level set out under the 2015 Nuclear Deal, in response to failure by other parties to the deal to keep up their promises, including providing IRAN with relief from the U.S. imposed sanctions, I am not surprised by IRAN essentially fighting fire with fire. In my opinion, the 3.67% enrichment levels set in the 2015 Nuclear Deal which is sufficient for commercial power generation, is far below the more than 90% level required for a nuclear warhead, such that there still seems to be room for further negotiations before IRAN hits 90%. It is important to note that the enrichment maximum set in the 2015 Nuclear Deal is sufficient for commercial power generation, but far below the more than 90% level required for a nuclear warhead. In my opinion, it is not surprising that IRAN enriched uranium to 4.5% this week, representing enough enrichment for IRAN to power its peaceful, already-active BUSHEHR nuclear reactor, but far short of the 90% threshold for weapons-grade uranium. Thus, in my opinion, IRAN does not currently represent a significant risk for enriching uranium to 90%, as this is an enormous technical challenge that requires building and operating very advanced centrifuges. Furthermore, in my opinion, IRAN will likely once again be subject to international attempts to sabotage any significant escalation of IRANIAN nuclear efforts, with computer viruses like STUXNET that previously successfully attacked IRANIAN centrifuges.
In regards to the decision by IRAN to offer a deal to the U.S. in which IRAN would formally and permanently accept enhanced inspections of its nuclear program, in return for the permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions, in my opinion, the offer was made by IRANIAN foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on a visit to NEW YORK, but it was not warmly received by U.S. President, Donald Trump, who is currently demanding that IRAN make a range of sweeping concessions, including cessation of uranium enrichment and support for proxies and allies in the region. Hence, I believe that it is in IRAN’s best interests to bring back the same IRANIAN Team to renegotiate the IRAN Nuclear Deal with the new U.S. Administration because they were exceptional in skills last time, while they will now be matched in skills, to renegotiate the sticking points of an end to IRAN’s ballistic missile program and an end to IRAN’s interference in the Middle East. Therefore, only time will tell where the gridlock will lead, as U.S. President, Donald Trump will likely abstain from striking IRAN knowing full well that Jimmy Carter’s attempt for a second term as President was destroyed by the IRAN hostage crisis in 1980 that essentially unseated an American President. However, in my opinion, U.S. President, Donald Trump seems to be the first U.S. President since 1980, who is willing to allow IRAN to flourish, to the extent IRAN focuses on promoting business and prosperity in the MIDDLE EAST, as opposed to conflicts and further civil wars.
Thus, in my opinion, the U.S. imposed sanctions and maximum pressure campaign are forcing IRAN to focus on its own problems, as for years, IRAN was one of the chief enablers and financiers of the NORTH KOREAN nuclear and ballistic threat. However, in my opinion, with 50% inflation and food prices that have risen 85%, IRAN does not have the excess cash IRAN used to have to engage in disruption. Thus, in my opinion, to this point, the U.S. has made the right moves with regards to IRAN but what IRAN will do next will be absolutely critical. However, in my opinion, the imminent threat these days comes from IRAN’s Defense Ministry that warned that any ISRAELI involvement in a U.S. led naval operation into the Strait of Hormuz, would have disastrous consequences for the MIDDLE EAST. Furthermore, in my opinion, this week’s news that a secret cyber attack against IRAN in June of 2019 wiped out a critical database used by IRAN’s paramilitary arm to plot attacks against oil tankers that degraded IRAN’s ability to covertly target shipping traffic in PERSIAN GULF, at least temporarily, is not surprising. In my opinion, senior U.S. officials discussed the results of the strike in part to quell doubts within the Trump Administration about whether the benefits of the operation outweighed the costs, as lost intelligence and lost access to a critical network used by IRAN’s Revolutionary Guards paramilitary forces, obviously crippled IRAN’s abilities to attack oil tankers, such that it would appear that the benefits outweighed the costs. In my opinion, the U.S. and IRAN have long been involved in an undeclared cyber conflict, a conflict carefully concealed to remain in the gray zone between war and peace, while effectively hurting the opposition without a trace.
However, in my opinion, IRAN’s President Hassan Rouhani kept the door open to diplomacy, backing EUROPEAN efforts to salvage 2015 Nuclear Deal, despite rebuffing FRANCE attempts to broker meeting between him and U.S. President Donald Trump at U.N. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Iran agreed to a four-point plan for talks with the U.S. during the U.N. General Assembly as it was brokered by FRANCE that IRAN considers to be neutral, until U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase sanctions against IRAN, as per IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani, who also stated that FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron presented him with a plan that appeared acceptable. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani confirm that the four-point program stipulated that IRAN should not seek nuclear weapons, should abide by regional peace, help to contribute to peace, and, in exchange, the U.S. would lift all sanctions against IRAN and allow IRANIAN exports immediately, as the lifting of sanctions immediately form the backbone of the plan. Hence, I agree with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assessment that IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani needs to be on the side of the swimming pool and jump at the same time. However, IRAN seems to have extreme difficulties in putting its pride aside as IRAN’s President left U.S. President Donald Trump hanging, and FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron in the Hall, as the telephone line had been secretly set up, with U.S. President Donald Trump waiting on other end. Therefore, in my opinion, all IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani of IRAN had to do was come out of his hotel suite and walk into a secure room where U.S. President Donald Trump’s voice would be diffused via speaker. However, IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani was nowhere to be found, albeit IRAN was surprised by the offer, as it was never before discussed bur rather presented by FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron as a broker in a last minute deal.
In my opinion, the recent attempts at having IRANIAN President Hassan Rouhani speak directly to U.S. President Donald Trump, demonstrates that the gamble for U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders is that their reluctance to act, in retaliation for what was a strategic effective attack on SAUDI ARABIA’s oil infrastructure, may contemporaneously be seen in IRAN as weakness. That is, in my opinion, the outright allegations that the Iran actually attacked Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure from Iran, an act of war, seams highly probable with more than 90% certainty, albeit IRAN publicly denied any responsibilities. Ironically, in my opinion, acknowledging an IRANIAN act of violence against a sovereign SAUDI ARABIAN nation, would almost inevitably demand a violent response from that nation or allies and put an end to diplomacy, while nobody wants to pursue that route, as any war between the U.S. and IRAN would be a catastrophe, as nobody could win such a never ending war. However, in my opinion, it has become blatantly obvious that U.S. and IRANIAN tensions have now reached new heights with U.S. imposed crippling sanctions designed for maximum pressure, that seems to have triggered a number of surprise attacks against U.S. allies in PERSIAN GULF with precisions that can only be linked to IRAN, albeit IRAN denying any responsibilities. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that he would use the ultimate option, a military strike, while IRAN’s foreign minister warned that IRAN would consider even a limited attack as an all-out war. However, in my opinion, there may still exist the possibility of reaching a stable equilibrium, despite relentless pressures towards escalations. That is, IRAN currently has the combination of strong internal cohesion with a weak state within the MIDDLE EAST due to U.S. imposed maximum pressure sanctions. Hence, in my opinion, the possibility exists for an informal agreement whereby IRAN can continue to chant death to America for regime survival, while the U.S. can continue demonizing and controlling IRAN. Thus, in my opinion, one possibility is for the U.S. to stay away from the 2015 Nuclear Deal, while removing secondary sanctions, so that other countries, namely in EUROPE, can do business with IRAN, while in return, IRAN can accept some adjustments in the JCPOA and agree to extend some provisions that are due to expire soon.

 

 

Summary

 

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 371” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as there is resentment now within ruling AL SAUD family, angry that Crown Prince MBS military leadership not able to detect oil attack, albeit Crown Prince MBS still has strong inner circle loyal & faithful to him, who argue stance against IRAN patriotic, such that IRAN strong response inevitable in new geopolitical landscape, whereby significant military strikes can transpire without anyone taking formal responsibility, such that Crown Prince MBS aggressive foreign policy towards IRAN & involvement in war in YEMEN exposed SAUDI ARABIA to this attack, while U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he would use ultimate option, military strike, if necessary, while IRAN foreign minister warned that IRAN would consider even limited attack as all-out war, albeit there may still exist possibility of reaching stable equilibrium, despite relentless pressures towards escalations, whereby IRAN can continue to chant death to America for regime survival, while U.S. can continue demonizing & controlling IRAN via sanctions, with U.S. choosing to stay away from 2015 Nuclear Deal, while removing secondary sanctions, so that other countries, namely in EUROPE, can do business with IRAN, while in return, IRAN can accept some adjustments in 2015 Nuclear Deal & agree to extend some provisions due to expire soon.

 

 

Spirit of John Lennon – THE ROCK’s News:



October 6, 2019