World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 355

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 355

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 355” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as some U.S. Senators formed a bipartisan opposition movement, to attempt to block U.S. President Donald Trump’s US$ 8 billion in arm sales to SAUDI ARABIA, as it was initiated without congressional approval, as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to manage to act on a timely basis, while the U.S. Congress struggles to react, as although U.S. Administrations rarely invoke the U.S. weapons export law, mainly because of how controversial it is, and the high bar required to claim such a dire situation exists, the Trump Administration chose to invoke it, by citing a perceived threat from IRAN against its two Gulf allies of SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be flexing his legal muscle, by exercising provisions that former Presidents shied away from, as he is in a league of his own, trying to run the U.S. government like a business, by taking decisions that he perceives as being in the best interests of the U.S., in conformance with his AMERICA FIRST policy, while TURKEY and CANADA signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen relations in the fields of trade, industry, services and investment, albeit TURKEY needs to understand that when the U.S. sneezes, CANADA catches a cold, such that TURKEY should focus its attention on the U.S. nonbinding Bill that underlines the importance of the allegiance between the U.S. and TURKEY, given TURKEY’s NATO alliance, while condemning TURKEY for its decision to buy RUSSIAN S-400 air and missile defense systems.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, TURKEY appears to be heading in the right direction with the current economic package with the goal of expanding capital markets, by including steps to establish a new investment fund, regulations to boost TURKEY’s ranking as an international finance center and diversification of financial derivatives, while fuelling economic growth with plans to reduce unemployment and ensure a fairer distribution of income including redesigned incentive systems for agricultural production. Furthermore, in my opinion, Berat Albayrak’s perspective seems to be reasonable that the worst was over, albeit TURKEY still seems to have a long battle ahead to emerge out of recession, as for much of the past year, TURKEY’s economy has been teetering. Therefore, TURKEY cannot blame international banks for a decade-long, credit-fuelled economic expansion that froze last year after investors expressed uncertainties in TURKISH financial markets, as investors were genuinely concerned about TURKEY’s economic and foreign policies. Thus, TURKEY still needs to reverse the negative impacts attributable to the TURKISH Lira losing 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar in one year, that has in turn fed inflation that has risen by over 20% in one year, representing the fastest increase in over 15 years, while hundreds of TURKISH companies have sought bankruptcy protection, as millions of people have been out of work. In my opinion, this week, TURKISH Finance Minister Berat Albayrak did the best he could to alleviate investor confidence, by reiterating that TURKISH inflation and employment would improve this year, while the TURKISH government will implement necessary reforms without hesitation as deemed necessary.

However, in my opinion, this week’s news from TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak stating that TURKEY’s inflation rate should once again drop to single-digit levels in either September or October of 2019, while highlighting that the inflation rate has already decreased from nearly 30% during the worst part of the economic crisis to 18% in June of 2019 should definitely be seen as a positive development. In my opinion, as a result od the declining inflation rate, the interest rates should drop similarly which should also be seen as a favourable prevision as lower interest rates mean easier financing for the TURKISH business world, which will strengthen TURKISH businesses. In regards to TURKEY and CANADA signing a memorandum of understanding on June 8, 2019 to strengthen relations in the fields of trade, industry, services and investment, this is a favourable prospective future economic relationship for both countries. However, in my opinion, TURKEY and CANADA need to sign a free trade agreement in order to reach higher bilateral trade volumes and to create a legal basis for strong future trade to increase commercial relations and investment between TURKEY and CANADA by granting businesses in both countries easy access to products and services. Nonetheless, TURKEY needs to understand that when the U.S. sneezes with a population over 327 million, CANADA catches a cold with its population of just over 37 million, such that TURKEY should focus its attention on the U.S. House of Representatives Bill that was passed on June 10, 2019 with the purpose of expressing concern over the U.S. and TURKEY alliance. In my opinion, although the U.S. resolution is nonbinding, the Bill underlines the importance of the allegiance between the U.S. and TURKEY, given TURKEY’s NATO alliance, while condemning TURKEY for its decision to buy Russian S-400 air and missile defense systems.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations.

In my opinion, the main TURKISH opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) successfully worked together to deliver a rebuke to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing AKP in local elections on March 31, 2019, that resulted in major wins for the opposition CHP in the capital, ANKARA, along with ISTANBUL and IZMI. However, in my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing AKP will fight and contest the slim opposition victory in TURKEY’s biggest city consisting of ISTANBUL that officially shows the CHP ahead by approximately 25,000 votes in ISTANBUL. However, in my opinion, the governing AKP is still reeling from the aftermath of last year’s currency collapse, when the TURKISH Lira crashed by around 30%, unleashing a wave of inflation, still running at around 20%, while Turkey’s central bank was forced to increase interest rates to 24% to stabilize the TURKISH Lira, one of the highest interest rates in the industrial world, which is obviously constraining TURKISH economic activity. Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY now faces stagflation consisting of persistent high inflation, combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in TURKEY’s economy while currently in official recession status with the risk of further soring inflation. Hence, from my point-of-view, it is clear that the ailing TURKISH economy was the major issue for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who built his political success on supercharging TURKISH economic growth that voters now held the governing AKP to account.

In my opinion, the official results say it all as nationwide, the governing AKP-led alliance won 51.6% of the vote while in the three major TURKISH cities, the opposition CHP effectively swept into power. That is, more than 57 million people in TURKEY who were registered to vote for mayors and councillors, resulted in a high turnout rate of just under 85% with CHP taking Istanbul with 48.8% (AKP: 48.5%); Ankara with 50.9% (AKP: 47%); and Izmir with 58% (AKP: 38.6%). Thus, in my opinion, although the governing AKP may have strived towards authoritarianism in the last few years, the opposition CHP is very much alive, while obviously being enriched by winning control of six of the ten biggest cities in TURKEY. However, in my opinion, only time will tell whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be forced to change his governing AKP’s economic policies as all opinion polls clearly depicted economic conditions as the number one issue in the TURKISH elections, while the actual TURKISH economy is currently in recession, with inflation hovering around 20%, unemployment around 13.5% and the prices of vegetables having risen around 30% year-on-year.

Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY does not need changes to reforms as announced by Berat Albayrak but rather TURKEY needs a change in mentality whereby the governing AKP realize that TURKEY is a country based on institutions and rules, such that the most effective strategy is allowing those institutions to operate freely so that free market principals take over. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY will likely need short-term IMF financing for its economy to recover more quickly from its current economic slump, such that although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled IMF financing out, TURKEY may be forced to go the IMF route as TURKEY is now short on the capital needed to help reduce the debt load of the TURKISH private sector, which has grown significantly after the TURKISH Lira currency crisis last year. In my opinion, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be in complete denial about the gravity of TURKEY’s economic problems, while showing no sign of being ready to come to political terms with the U.S. to facilitate a successful strategy to obtain IMF financing. That is, should the delivery of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile systems lead to U.S. sanctions being imposed in the near term, this could impact TURKEY’s ability to access IMF assistance, albeit TURKEY continuing to state publicly that TURKEY will take delivery of the Russian S-400 air-defense system, which has put the U.S. and TURKEY on a collision course that could harm the historic NATO alliance between TURKEY and the U.S. Thus, in my opinion, the governing AKP victory with a do-over of mayoral elections in ISTANBUL, overturning a win for the opposition CHP, resulted in the TURKISH LIRA falling to its lowest level since the LIRA crisis last year, while inflation continues to be at nearly four times the official target, that will make it more expensive for TURKISH companies to repay debt, most of which is in denominated in U.S. dollars and EUROS, such that it appears that the economy will likely get worse before it gets better. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY appears to be paying the price for its pre-election efforts to control the capital markets, as foreign investors have withdrawn close to $ 1.8 billion dollars from TURKISH capital markets during 2019, representing the biggest retreat by foreign investors since 2015. In my opinion, with the TURKISH central bank’s cash reserves running low, TURKEY seems to have few options available should foreign investors decide to pull their investments out of TURKEY. In my opinion, the trouble with recent measures adopted by the governing AKP is that they are short-term in nature as opposed to being part of a coherent and comprehensive macro-economic program to deal with TURKEY’s economic woes such that they do little to restore investor confidence, who are more receptive to IMF financing that the governing AKP has rejected as an alternative thus far.

In my opinion, this week’s announcement by TURKISH Defense Minister Hulusi Akar that there could be a delay in the delivery of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile-defense system, that threatens to exacerbate tensions between TURKEY and the U.S., could result in future difficulties for TURKEY to obtain IMF financing. In my opinion, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to purchase the S-400, surface-to-air, missile defence system from RUSSIA, has completely ignored the U.S. opinion that the presence of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defence system on NATO soil would compromise the security of the U.S. and its allies. In my opinion, the U.S. has a valid point that if the S-400 missile batteries were deployed inside TURKEY, RUSSIA could obtain confidential information about the U.S. F-35, which is supposed to become NATO’s principal combat aircraft. In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have given TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an informal deadline of next month to choose between the U.S. F-35 and RUSSIAN S-400 given that TURKISH Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has delayed the first delivery of the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defence system from June of 2019. Thus, in my opinion, given that TURKEY has consistently refused to abandon the RUSSIAN S-400 deal, the U.S. has threatened to withhold the sale of the U.S. F-35 fighter jets to TURKEY, or to impose sanctions on TURKEY under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Hence, in my opinion, TURKEY now finds itself stuck between a rock and a hard place, given that TURKEY’s credit-fuelled growth has halted, triggering runaway inflation, high unemployment and a collapsing TURKISH Lira such that if U.S. sanctions are imposed due to the RUSSIAN S-400 missile defence system, the TURKISH economy could very well slip deeper into economic recession. However, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains adamant that one of the proposals by the U.S. of granting TURKEY the U.S. produced Raytheon Patriot missile system as an alternative to Russia’s S-400, represents an insufficient bargain. That is, TURKEY prefers the Russian S-400 to the US deal as TURKEY will receive the sensitive missile technology behind the equipment as well as help to develop and produce future iterations of the S-400 system that the U.S. is not willing to compromise. However, in my opinion, this week’s U.S. House of Representatives passing a non-binding Bill with the purpose of expressing concern over the U.S. and TURKEY alliance while condemning TURKEY for its decision to buy Russian S-400 air and missile defense systems is not surprising. In my opinion, as the Bill clearly states, given that the U.S. government has offered TURKEY a strong, capable and NATO-interoperable defense system in accordance with TURKEY’s requirements, the integrity of the U.S. and TURKEY alliance will obviously be compromised while the NATO alliance will be undermined. Furthermore, in my opinion, If Turkey does not halt the S-400 purchase, the U.S. will terminate TURKEY’s participation in the F-35 industrial program and will implement sanctions through CAATSA as specified in the Bill.

In my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the recent escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, Russia and Iran, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting this week resulted in the SAA unleashing a powerful assault across the southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by the terrorist HTS rebels, as the SAA repeatedly fired several artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles towards HTS positions. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH armed forces have attempted to quell the violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s, SAA forces along with the RUSSIAN air force bombarding residential areas in the suburbs of IDLIB and ALEPPO was not surprising. Hence, in my opinion, this week’s intensification of SAA and RUSSIAN bombing campaigns on IDLIB, including airstrikes, barrel bombs and artillery attacks is not surprising as the shaky truce is on the verge of total collapse, with SYRIAN and RUSSIAN forces set to launch a full-blown assault. Hence, in my opinion, escalating military operations in northwestern IDLIB are literally bringing a new massacre each day. However, in regards to this week’s unusual turn of events as the TURKISH Armed Forces reportedly carried out a security operation against the KURDISH YPG in the northern countryside of ALEPPO, in retaliation for the KURDISH YPG attack on their forces in AFRIN, it is important to avoid a full fledge confrontation between the KURDISH YPG and TURKISH forces, as all hell could very easily break loose with the entire territory once again being razed with everybody turning mentally insane. As a friendly reminder, the KURDISH PKK has fought a bloody war against TURKISH forces for over three decades with the KURDISH PKK hardline tactics drawing international condemnation as fighting has largely been concentrated in IRAQ’s southeast region which has a large KURDISH community who are seeking independence or autonomy. However, the TURKISH government also considers the KURDISH YPG as terrorists by association although the KURDISH YPG was the primary U.S. ally in the war against ISIS. It is thus obvious to me that over thirty years of bad blood between TURKEY and the KURDISH PKK has clouded TURKEY’s judgement to the point that they are unable to remain objective and impartial as concerns the KURDS such that their personal animosities have taken control and thus all KURDS are now seen as part of the terrorist mole.

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.

In my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

However, in my opinion, the introduction of a bill by a group of U.S. Democratic senators that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is another formality in the relentless pursuit by the opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump to hold Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. However, like the E.U. and the U.N., the U.S. Democratic Senators are now attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, in my opinion, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the report that must include the identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi, will likely not provide any new information, in the sense that there is no substantive evidence to pin Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, such that the U.S. Democratic Senators should focus on obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA.

However, in my opinion, this week’s news that some U.S. Senators formed a bipartisan opposition movement to attempt to find ways to block U.S. President Donald Trump’s US$ 8 billion in arm sales to SAUDI ARABIA is not surprising, as it was initiated without congressional approval, by applying legal loopholes by declaring a national emergency, to bypass the U.S. Congress. In my opinion, some U.S. senators are trying to rein in the power of the U.S. President given that although ultimate power may very well rest with the U.S. Congress, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to manage to act on a timely basis day to day, while the U.S. Congress struggles to react. Thus, in my opinion, the bipartisan Senate starting a short process to force a vote on U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN ties, and possibly delivering one of the strongest rebukes to the Trump Administration’s foreign policies is not surprising. In my opinion, although there is a provision in the U.S. weapons export law allowing the executive branch to sell arms without congressional sign-off if an emergency exists which requires the proposed sale in the national security interests of the U.S., Administrations rarely invoke it. Furthermore, in my opinion, U.S. Administrations rarely invoke the U.S. weapons export law mainly because of how controversial it is, and the high bar required to claim such a dire situation exists. Nonetheless, the Trump Administration chose to invoke the rarely utilized emergency measures in this case, by citing a perceived threat from IRAN against its two Gulf allies consisting of SAUDI ARABIA and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be flexing his legal muscle by exercising provisions that former Presidents shied away from, as U.S. President Donald Trump is in a league of his own, trying to run the U.S. government like a business, by taking decisions that he perceives as being in the best interests of the U.S., in conformance with his AMERICA FIRST policy. Thus, in my opinion, what seems to be clear is that the Trump administration continues to face stiff resistance from Congress, on its unwavering alliance with SAUDI ARABIA, that is causing major headaches in the U.S. political process. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick with his gut instincts and push the sales forward, on the argumentation that the weapons are needed to help U.S. partners to better defend themselves, and to reinforce recent changes to U.S. policies in the MIDDLE EAST to deter IRAN.

In regards to U.S. Democratic senators still being frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region, it has become clear almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, that Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. However, in my opinion, this week, it was evident how what would appear to be two very different developments, were in fact part of same story, as the Jamal Khashoggi killing triggered the UAE and SAUDI ARABIA to announce that they would provide a joint $ 200 million in urgent aid for people in YEMEN. In my opinion, civilians in YEMEN struggling to buy food to break their fast culminating after four consecutive years of civil war, that has resulted in the YEMEN currency sinking to its lowest levels in history, while the cost of food has soared, has triggering a major food crisis like YEMEN has never before seen.

However, I was not surprised to see this week, that SAUDI ARABIA focused its attention on the HOUTHI rebels as YEMEN’s HOUTHI rebels crossed the border into neighbouring SAUDI ARABIA, currently leading a military coalition against them, while taking control of more than 20 positions. In my opinion, given that NAJRAN is strategically located adjacent to the YEMENI border, it is not surprising that the military sites in NAJRAN were captured in a surprise offensive carried out this week, as the YEMENI rebels appear to have chosen to launch this offensive as the U.S. is preparing to ramp up the SAUDI ARABIAN military arsenal, in essence sending SAUDI ARABIA a subliminal message that the YEMENI rebels still have IRANIAN backed power to launch artillery showers. In my opinion, the HOUTHI rebels release of an eight-minute-long video this week that detailed their large-scale advance inside SAUDI ARABIA’s NAJRAN Province near the YEMENI border, inflicting heavy losses on SAUDI ARABIAN military fighters and equipment, was a pure act of public humiliation to SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, since the Arab uprisings of 2011, SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE have used their considerable financial resources to promote authoritarian governments run by military strongmen in the region, by helping to crush BAHRAIN’s uprising, bankrolling a return to military dictatorship in EGYPT, arming a rogue military leader in LIBYA and mismanaging a democratic transition in YEMEN before launching a destructive war in YEMEN. In my opinion, General al-Burhan and General Hamdan have had a close working relationship with both SAUDI ARABIA and UAE leadership since at least 2015, having been directly involved in the SAUDI ARABIAN-led war on YEMEN, with General al-Burhan overseeing Sudan’s more than 10,000 ground troops in YEMEN including thousands of militiamen from the Rapid Security Forces headed by General Hamdan. Thus, in my opinion, those behind SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE will argue that their interventions have been aimed at fighting off ISLAMIST extremism and promoting regional stability, while those behind IRAN will argue that SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE are in substance driven by their own fears that should a major Arab country transition to democracy, it would lead to upheavals at home in SAUDI ARABIA and the UAE. Nonetheless, in my opinion, since the YEMENI war commenced, tens of thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed and as many as 85,000 children appear to have literally starved to death, while each respective side holds on in what appears to be a never ending conflict for power and control, that does not seem resolvable with heavy artillery.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, obtain U.S. sanction waivers, based on a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, amid speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ. In my opinion, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. will withdraw from IRAQ. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick to his guns, as he has been extremely vocal that the U.S. has spent over US$ 7 Trillion in the MIDDLE EAST, with nothing to show for it, such that he has long favoured seizing IRAQ’s oil, while at a minimum IRAQ will have to renegotiate business relationships with the U.S. in order to warrant future U.S. involvement in IRAQ.

Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offer of full support for IRAQ’s continued security, to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ, is not surprising. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA is courting IRAQ as part of a combined effort with the U.S. to stem the growing regional influence of IRAN, while IRAQ is seeking economic benefits from closer ties with SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA which is of a majority SUNNI Muslim background is the perfect financial backer for SUNNI Muslim parts of IRAQ, which bore the brunt of the fighting during the war against ISIS, but that now seem to be underfunded by the SHIA-led central government in IRAQ, as the budget appears to be lacking to help the liberated SUNNI Muslim areas. Furthermore, in regards to this week’s turmoil, as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, it is my opinion that IRAQIS will no longer be able to blame interference by the U.S. for exacerbating IRAQ’s internal problems. However, in my opinion, the impending U.S. withdrawal, will likely trigger ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA attempting to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ.

In regards the announcement by IRAQI President Barham Salih that foreign ISIS fighters would be tried under IRAQI law, such that they could be handed death sentences for acts of terrorism, if found guilty of killing IRAQIS, as IRAQI law allows for capital punishment, ISIS fighters who committed atrocities should be executed accordingly as their actions were committed without any human decency like savage wild animals without any mercy. That is, with at least 200 mass graves containing up to 12,000 victims discovered in IRAQ, IRAQ continues to struggle to emerge from the psychological damage caused by the four-year battle with ISIS militants. In my opinion, with ISIS in IRAQ killing almost 33,000 civilians, with more than 55,000 injured, it is critical to identity the victims in order to aid the recovery process for their families. However, in my opinion, this week it appears that IRAQ’s military wants to symbolically close the ISIS book with its announcement that it is granting a reward to anyone with information related to senior ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, whereby any individual with intelligence that could result in the detention of the leader of the ISIS terrorist group will be receiving a reward of USD 25 million.

In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as a prime focus of the discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, this week’s However, in my opinion, the shadow of senior ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi hovered over IRAQ this week, as rumours continued to circulate, that the latest video of him filmed in a remote location might very well be IRAQ. However, I was not surprised to see this week that ISIS sleeper cells burned, blew-up and slaughtered hundreds in increased attacks across IRAQ and SYRIA, such that although it has been months since ISIS was expelled from its territorial control in IRAQ and SYRIA, the brutal ISIS terrorist mercenaries continue to wreak havoc in the lands ISIS once deemed as its so called caliphate. In my opinion, destroying the ISIS caliphate and depriving ISIS of its territorial control in IRAQ and SYRIA were a positive accomplishment, but ISIS as a terrorist organization and ideology has not yet been defeated. Therefore, in my opinion, the long-term sustainable defeat of ISIS will require a comprehensive counter-terrorism military strategy, focusing on working with U.S. and other allies to kill inhabitable ISIS terrorists, to address the underlying ISIS ideology and to promote inclusive governments in SYRIA and IRAQ. In my opinion, while the whereabouts of the elusive ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the most wanted man in the world, remains unknown, he continues to disseminate orders to the various ISIS sleeper cells across remote regions, as ISIS continues to maintain a shadowy underground presence in both IRAQ and SYRIA. Thus, in my opinion, premature withdrawal from SYRIA would almost guarantee that the U.S. and its allies would have to return at a later time and at a significantly increased cost. Furthermore, a premature departure by the U.S. and its allies would also empower RUSSIA, IRAN, and HEZBOLLAH to exert greater control over SYRIA, while putting ISRAEL at greater risk with an increased presence of HEZBOLLAH near their borders. In addition, as long as Bashar al-Assad remains in power, it will be difficult to address SUNNI grievances that have created the fertile recruiting ground for ISIS.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, although RUSSIA blames TURKEY by claiming that HTS is using IDLIB as a base to launch attacks against SAA forces, I believe that controlling the HTS group is an impossible mission. Therefore, in my opinion, the rise of HTS in IDLIB has given RUSSIA and the SAA a strong pretext for an assault, although the U.N. warns that such an assault could trigger this century’s worst humanitarian crisis, as IDLIB is home to an estimated 3 million people. Nonetheless, the SAA seems to be pushing ahead with its military operations to retake the strategic M5 highway that connects the provincial capitals of IDLIB, HAMA and ALEPPO. Thus, it is not surprising to see the de-escalation zone in SYRIA witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. In my opinion, both TURKEY and RUSSIA continue to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily to head off a confrontation over IDLIB, as everybody knows that the potential collapse of the de-escalation zone risks creating the largest humanitarian crisis in the history of the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion, the current pattern of ceasefire violations seriously threatens the viability of the de-escalation zone, due to raging escalations in violence, as the pattern of attacks in IDLIB, particularly from the Bashar al-Assad regime, targeting communities near the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, consisting of both urban centers and rural communities, seem to be of little military or strategic value, other than easy targets.

Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defector rulers of SAUDI ARABIA.

In my opinion, SYRIA desperately needs a ceasefire on all fronts with RUSSIA taking over a new round of negotiations between the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the KURDISH YPG and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) along with all external parties actively involved in this conflict consisting of TURKEY, IRAN, U.S. and RUSSIA in order to put an end to this madness once and for all. In my opinion, although ISIS was literally disappearing from the face of the map in SYRIA, new showdowns between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) under the control of President Bashar al-Assad and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) only serves to fuel the re-emergence of ISIS as a dangerous player in SYRIA. In my opinion, even without formal federalization, SYRIA is in substance divided into several regions controlled by different forces consisting of the government under SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad; the anti-Assad opposition groups under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA); pro-Turkish and pro-Iranian militias; and the KURDS. Thus, in my opinion, RUSSIA is the only player in SYRIA able to garner enough respect from ALL affected parties to negotiate a deal such that ALL parties need to put their big egos aside and give RUSSIA exclusive mediation powers to develop some sort of reorganized SYRIA that can once and for all put an end to all of this senseless never ending violence, bloodshed and utter madness.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 355” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as some U.S. Senators formed a bipartisan opposition movement, to attempt to block U.S. President Donald Trump’s US$ 8 billion in arm sales to SAUDI ARABIA, as it was initiated without congressional approval, as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to manage to act on a timely basis, while the U.S. Congress struggles to react, as although U.S. Administrations rarely invoke the U.S. weapons export law, mainly because of how controversial it is, and the high bar required to claim such a dire situation exists, the Trump Administration chose to invoke it, by citing a perceived threat from IRAN against its two Gulf allies of SAUDI ARABIA and UAE, as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be flexing his legal muscle, by exercising provisions that former Presidents shied away from, as he is in a league of his own, trying to run the U.S. government like a business, by taking decisions that he perceives as being in the best interests of the U.S., in conformance with his AMERICA FIRST policy, while TURKEY and CANADA signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen relations in the fields of trade, industry, services and investment, albeit TURKEY needs to understand that when the U.S. sneezes, CANADA catches a cold, such that TURKEY should focus its attention on the U.S. nonbinding Bill that underlines the importance of the allegiance between the U.S. and TURKEY, given TURKEY’s NATO alliance, while condemning TURKEY for its decision to buy RUSSIAN S-400 air and missile defense systems.