World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 348

World Peace “Lennon Ivan Style” – Part 348

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 348” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, stated that he does not dispute the CIA’s conclusion that Crown Prince MBS was behind the death of Jamal Khashoggi, but his job was to advance U.S. foreign policy interests, while U.S. President Donald Trump made the final judgement call, by ignoring the high level of circumstantial evidence, while giving Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family the benefit of the doubt, such that blockage by U.S. Congress to move forward on a $ 2 billion arms sale deal, to punish SAUDI ARABIA, could backfire as SAUDI ARABIA can and will go to CHINA and RUSSIA, who would gladly fill the void, hence U.S. Congress should focus its efforts on reducing the need for weapons by mediating a ceasefire between SAUDI ARABIA and the YEMEN Houthi rebels, as opposed to stalling weapon sales to SAUDI ARABIA, as many financiers who initially abandoned SAUDI ARABIAN investment, proved that any reputational concerns about dealing with SAUDI ARABIA have been short lived, as many prominent bankers returned to this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN investment conference, with Black Rock’s chief executive Larry Fink, hitting the nail on the head, that the fact there are issues in the press, does not mean that Black Rock must run away from SAUDI ARABIA, but rather that Black Rock should run to SAUDI ARABIA and invest because what Black Rock was most frightened of are things that Black Rock did not want to talk about, depicting modern realities whereby money talks and bullshit walks, as speaker after speaker complimented SAUDI ARABIA’s future prospects, as Crown Prince MBS has done everything humanly possible to put the Jamal Khashoggi scandal behind SAUDI ARABIA, just like THE ROCK has managed to put the imminent terrorist threat gossip, rumours and hearsay scandal behind, as part of the history of the evolution of THE ROCK’s Web Market.

TURKEY News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

Although THE ROCK kindly and politely offered his consulting services to Berat Albayrak to help TURKEY straighten out their economic and geopolitical mess, Berat Albayrak seems to be heading in the right direction as TURKEY continued this week to focus on the TURKISH economy. In my opinion, TURKEY’s central bank keeping its benchmark interest rate on hold, sticking to its promise to stand firm on inflation, even as the economy suffers a sharp slowdown in growth, was critical to insuring minimal economic volatility with the upcoming local elections to be held on March 31, 2019. In my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak, managed to reassure the global markets that the expedited economic reforms in the post-election period will reinvigorate the normalization of TURKISH markets, as a new comprehensive economic package was announced on April 8, 2019. Thus, in my opinion, TURKISH markets now seem to be returning to normal after the recent TURKISH elections such that TURKEY should quickly enter a normalization process with the economic package announced by TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak.

Furthermore, in my opinion, this week TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak continued to hold his position that TURKEY’s economic ills, including a TURKISH Lira currency crisis last year, are all part of a plot by foreign banks and governments to target TURKEY and its global rise under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership. In my opinion, Ahmet Davutoglu, who was once President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s handpicked successors for the top position of the governing AKP, hit the nail on the head this week when he clearly stated that the governing AKP must face the reality of decreasing public support due to arrogant policies from the management of the economy to significantly constraining basic liberties and the pressure on free speech. Furthermore, in my opinion, Ahmet Davutoglu perfectly diagnosed TURKEY’s current paradox, of trying to manage the economic crisis that is currently raging in TURKEY by denying its existence, while identifying a governance crisis that lies at the root of the economic crisis that TURKER is experiencing. However, in my opinion, TURKISH Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak’s plans are the best TURKEY can achieve if it wants to ignore the option of obtaining financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In my opinion, the option of IMF financing would speed up the process for TURKEY to recover from the technical recession, after the economy contracted for two-straight quarters in the second half of 2018, albeit President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to go the IMF route. However, in my opinion if Berat Albayrak’s plan is unable to produce timely results in TURKEY’s economy, TURKEY may be forced to go to the IMF for financing.

In my opinion, TURKEY appears to be heading in the right direction with the upcoming economic package with the goal of expanding capital markets, by including steps to establish a new investment fund, regulations to boost TURKEY’s ranking as an international finance center and diversification of financial derivatives, while fuelling economic growth with plans to reduce unemployment and ensure a fairer distribution of income including redesigned incentive systems for agricultural production. Furthermore, in my opinion, Berat Albayrak’s perspective seems to be reasonable that the worst was over, albeit TURKEY still seems to have a long battle ahead to emerge out of recession, as for much of the past year, TURKEY’s economy has been teetering. Therefore, TURKEY cannot blame international banks for a decade-long, credit-fuelled economic expansion that froze last year after investors expressed uncertainties in TURKISH financial markets, as investors were genuinely concerned about TURKEY’s economic and foreign policies. Thus, TURKEY still needs to reverse the negative impacts attributable to the TURKISH Lira losing 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar in one year, that has in turn fed inflation that has risen by over 20% in one year, representing the fastest increase in over 15 years, while hundreds of TURKISH companies have sought bankruptcy protection, as millions of people have been out of work.

In my opinion, Berat Albayrak sounds like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is not surprising as he is his son-in-law such that Berat Albayrak seems to be significantly influenced by the President and seems to be extremely reluctant to go against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s firm belief in the need to maintain interest rates stable at around 17%. However, in my opinion, TURKEY faces the risk of a rapid slowdown in the TURKISH economy that could potentially culminate in a difficult recession unless TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, takes urgent steps to rebalance the TURKISH economy while fuelling investor confidence. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, acted appropriately, by declaring war on soaring inflation and calling on TURKEY’s businesses to cut prices by 10% to counter runaway inflation, that has driven up the price of everything from food to fuel, and sent inflation to 25% last month, its highest in 15 years. In my opinion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox brand of economics whereby inflation should not be contained by raising interest rates or other traditional measures, but rather by employing supply-side measures to reduce costs, may very well work for medium, large and government controlled organizations.

In my opinion, the official results say it all as nationwide, the governing AKP-led alliance won 51.6% of the vote while in the three major TURKISH cities, the opposition CHP effectively swept into power. That is, more than 57 million people in TURKEY who were registered to vote for mayors and councillors, resulted in a high turnout rate of just under 85% with CHP taking Istanbul with 48.8% (AKP: 48.5%); Ankara with 50.9% (AKP: 47%); and Izmir with 58% (AKP: 38.6%). Thus, in my opinion, although the governing AKP may have strived towards authoritarianism in the last few years, the opposition CHP is very much alive, while obviously being enriched by winning control of six of the ten biggest cities in TURKEY. However, in my opinion, only time will tell whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be forced to change his governing AKP’s economic policies as all opinion polls clearly depicted economic conditions as the number one issue in the TURKISH elections, while the actual TURKISH economy is currently in recession, with inflation hovering around 20%, unemployment around 13.5% and the prices of vegetables having risen around 30% year-on-year.

Thus, in my opinion, TURKEY does not need changes to reforms as announced by Berat Albayrak but rather TURKEY needs a change in mentality whereby the governing AKP realize that TURKEY is a country based on institutions and rules, such that the most effective strategy is allowing those institutions to operate freely so that free market principals take over. Furthermore, in my opinion, TURKEY will likely need short-term IMF financing for its economy to recover more quickly from its current economic slump, such that although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled IMF financing out, TURKEY may be forced to go the IMF route as TURKEY is now short on the capital needed to help reduce the debt load of the TURKISH private sector, which has grown significantly after the TURKISH Lira currency crisis last year. In my honest opinion, TURKEY is no different than other countries that seek IMF financing, in the sense that all countries that seek IMF financing, seem to do so with similar emotions to that of patients forced to seek dental treatment for an infected root canal. However, in my opinion, like a suffering patient experiencing significant pain who has little option but to seek their Dentist’s help for an infected root canal, the depth of Turkey’s economic crisis leaves TURKEY with few viable short-term alternatives then to go to the IMF for financial assistance. Unfortunately, I believe that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be in complete denial about the gravity of TURKEY’s economic problems, while showing no sign of being ready to come to political terms with the U.S. to facilitate a successful strategy to obtain IMF financing.

In my opinion, this means that the TURKISH economic crisis will likely further deteriorate, while it seems to be just a matter of time before the global financial system will have to deal with widespread TURKISH defaults on corporate debt. In my opinion, the TURKISH LIRA currency crisis seems to be heading in the inevitable direction of IMF help, as over the past year, the TURKISH Lira lost around 30% of its value after years of over-borrowing, especially in U.S. dollars, by TURKEY’s corporate sector. In my opinion, TURKEY’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak made a gallant effort to solve TURKEY’s economic problems internally but after a brief period of stabilization, the TURKISH LIRA has resumed its downward march in recent weeks, albeit the fact that the TURKISH central bank has raised interest rates to 24% and burnt through one-third of its international reserves to support the TURKIS Lira ahead of TURKEY’s March 31, 2019 local elections. Thus, in my opinion, the resumed Turkish LIRA currency weakness that has occurred despite the TURKISH Federal Reserve’s shift to an easier monetary policy stance, indicates that a wave of corporate debt defaults, bears the risks of crippling the TURKISH banking system, as a weak TURKISH LIRA and a deepening recession take their toll on TURKEY’s corporate sector’s balance sheets. Thus, the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to recognize that his governing AKP economic policy credibility is approaching collapse such that TURKEY will likely need IMF financing in order to restore that credibility, seems to suggest that the TURKISH currency crisis will need to get a lot worse before TURKEY makes the needed economic and political U-TURN to get an IMF financing in place.

In my opinion, although RUSSIA blames TURKEY by claiming that HTS is using IDLIB as a base to launch attacks against SAA forces, I believe that controlling the HTS group is an impossible mission. Therefore, in my opinion, the rise of HTS in IDLIB has given RUSSIA and the SAA a strong pretext for an assault, although the U.N. warns that such an assault could trigger this century’s worst humanitarian crisis, as IDLIB is home to an estimated 3 million people. Nonetheless, the SAA seems to be pushing ahead with its military operations to retake the strategic M5 highway that connects the provincial capitals of IDLIB, HAMA and ALEPPO. Thus, it is not surprising to see the de-escalation zone in SYRIA witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. In my opinion, both TURKEY and RUSSIA continue to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily to head off a confrontation over IDLIB, as everybody knows that the potential collapse of the de-escalation zone risks creating the largest humanitarian crisis in the history of the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion, the current pattern of ceasefire violations seriously threatens the viability of the de-escalation zone, due to raging escalations in violence, as the pattern of attacks in IDLIB, particularly from the Bashar al-Assad regime, targeting communities near the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, consisting of both urban centers and rural communities, seem to be of little military or strategic value, other than easy targets.

In my opinion, TURKEY already struggles to provide for the 3.6 million SYRIAN refugees it currently hosts, while the possibility of 800,000 or more refugees fleeing towards TURKEY from an offensive in IDLIB represents a potential humanitarian catastrophe. In my opinion, it is unfortunate that IDLIB is far from the front pages of major news publications, as the recent escalation and use of chemical weapons showcases the level of impunity the Bashar al-Assad regime and its allied partners, Russia and Iran, continue to enjoy while inflicting ongoing damage and destruction in IDLIB. That is, escalations in fighting this week resulted in the SAA unleashing a powerful assault across the southern countryside of IDLIB, targeting several areas controlled by the terrorist HTS rebels, as the SAA repeatedly fired several artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles towards HTS positions. In my opinion, although the RUSSIAN and TURKISH armed forces have attempted to quell the violence in northern HAMA and southern IDLIB, the tit-for-tat attacks between the SAA and the HTS rebels persists with no foreseeable end to the violence in sight. Thus, in my opinion, this week’s hard hits by the SAA and RUSSIAN Air Force once again on HTS opposition-held positions in northern SYRIA’s de-escalation zones resulting in at least one civilian being killed and at least a half dozen casualties is not surprising. In my opinion, the IDLIB de-escalation zone created by RUSSIA and TURKEY in September of 2018 is currently subject to violations by both SAA forces and rebel HTS opposition groups since February of 2019, while recent violations are important because of the danger they pose to the three million civilians in the area. That is, in my opinion with around 150 violations and over 225 deaths and 265 injuries across all major violations documented, the agreement could collapse if the SAA chooses to launch an offensive on IDLIB, using similar tactics seen in ALEPPO, bearing the risks of creating an unprecedented humanitarian disaster.

SAUDI ARABIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, the international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY has still not been resolved. Furthermore, consequences for anyone, even a member of the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family, found responsible for the assassination, must be enforced to the fullest extent of the law as the audio recordings of Jamal Khashoggi being assaulted, tortured, killed and dismembered inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate, are disturbing and down right psychopathic in nature. Thus, TURKEY led a relentless campaign to hold SAUDI ARABIA accountable, as TURKISH authorities have allowed media leaks to the international press. Thus, in my opinion, it was not surprising to see CIA Director Gina Haspel garnering extensive support for her conclusion, from both top Republican and top Democratic leaders. However, it was surprising to see the entire Senate Committee vote unanimously to overrule U.S. President Donald Trump, by officially blaming Crown Prince MBS for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, in my opinion U.S. President Donald Trump has made the right decision to stick with Crown Price MBS on the basis that there is no substantive evidence to link him to the crime.

In my opinion, the final official SAUDI ARABIAN version remaining that the SAUDI ARABIAN assassins killed Jamal Khashoggi with an injection of sedatives, and then immediately set to work dismembering him and hiding his remains, clearly answers the question of who, what, when, where and how but the remaining question of why still remains unclear. In my opinion, the 11 Jamal Khashoggi murder suspects put on trial, demanding the death penalty for 5, is completely expected. However, in my opinion, the 5 death sentence decisions will in substance result in SAUDI ARABIA preventing those people responsible from speaking publicly. Thus, in my opinion, it is to the benefit of SAUDI ARABIA for the truth about Jamal Khashoggi to disappear with the 5 planned executions, such that at this stage it appears that SAUDI ARABIA will execute a 5 to 1 exchange.

However, in my opinion, the introduction of a bill by a group of U.S. Democratic senators that would require the leader of the U.S. intelligence community to submit an unclassified report on the death of SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is another formality in the relentless pursuit by the opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump to hold Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. However, like the E.U. and the U.N., the U.S. Democratic Senators are now attempting to beat a dead horse to death, although there is nothing more anybody can do at this stage to bring back Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, in my opinion, at this stage it would seem more constructive to focus on changing the authoritarian mind sets in the MIDDLE EAST as opposed to overanalyzing the evidence behind the Jamal Khashoggi killing to the point of paralysis, as at the end of the day the elite class rules, such that Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family are under armour and bullet proof. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the report that must include the identification of those who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi, will likely not provide any new information, in the sense that there is no substantive evidence to pin Crown Prince MBS or the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family. Thus, in my opinion, focusing on punishing SAUDI ARABIA for its sins of the past will have very little impact, such that the U.S. Democratic Senators should focus on obtaining prospective concessions from SAUDI ARABIA consisting of: (1) Negotiate directly with representatives of the HOUTHI rebels to end the war in YEMEN; (2) End a blockade imposed by SAUDI ARABIA and three other ARAB states on QATAR, in June of last year seeking a political solution, in one of the worst diplomatic rifts with QATAR throughout its entire history; and (3) Release blogger Raif Badawi, women’s rights activists and other political prisoners held in SAUDI ARABIA.

However, in my opinion, this week’s position by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, stating that he does not dispute the CIA’s conclusion that Crown Prince MBS of Saudi Arabia was behind the death of Jamal Khashoggi was surprising albeit his refusal to discuss anything intelligence-related makes it clear in my opinion, that Jared Kushner was sending the clear message that his job was to advance U.S. foreign policy interests, while the CIA had its respective responsibilities. In my opinion, it is no secret that the CIA assessment was predicated on the notion of a high level of confidence that Crown Prince MBS was complicit in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi that nobody can dispute, albeit there is no substantive evidence to hold Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family accountable. Therefore, it was up to U.S. President Donald Trump to make the final judgement call, which he did, by ignoring the high level of circumstantial evidence, while giving Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family the benefit of the doubt. In regards to the U.S. administration having few options to move forward on a $ 2 billion arms sale deal to SAUDI ARABIA, that the U.S. Congress is leveraging to punish SAUDI ARABIA for alleged human rights abuses, while also looking to hold U.S. President Donald Trump accountable for his unconditional embrace of SAUDI ARABIA, it is my opinion that if the U.S. Congress holds out too long, SAUDI ARABIA can and will go elsewhere. In my opinion, the U.S. needs to continue to be a dependable supplier for SAUDI ARABIA, because if the U.S. chooses to not sell weapons to SAUDI ARABIA, they’re going to buy the weapons from CHINA and RUSSIA, as at the end of the day, SAUDI ARABIA will buy the weapons with or without the U.S. Therefore, in my opinion, as long as SAUDI ARABIA has a demand for weapons, there will be a supply, be it from the U.S. accorded preferential treatment, due to its current strong relationship with SAUDI ARABIA under the existing U.S. Administration, or from other power houses such as CHINA and RUSSIA who would gladly fill the void. Hence, the U.S. Congress should focus its efforts on reducing the need for weapons by mediating a ceasefire between SAUDI ARABIA and the YEMEN Houthi rebels as opposed to stalling weapon sales to SAUDI ARABIA that will ultimately go to RUSSIA or CHINA if the U.S. refuses to supply.

In regards to U.S. Democratic senators still being frustrated by U.S. President Donald Trump downplaying their hype regarding Jamal Khashoggi by focusing on senior adviser Jared Kushner’s face-to-face meeting with Crown Prince MBS and his father King Salman to discuss U.S. and SAUDI ARABIAN cooperation, the ISRAELI and PALESTINIAN conflict and economic investment in the region, it has become clear almost six months after SAUDI ARABIAN journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, that Crown Prince MBS believed to have ordered the killing has cemented his position as U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest ally in the MIDDLE EAST. However, in my opinion, this week, many financiers who abandoned SAUDI ARABIAN investment over six months ago, amid international outrage over the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, proved that any reputational concerns about dealing with SAUDI ARABIA have been short lived as many prominent bankers returned to this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN investment conference. In my opinion, Black Rock’s chief executive Larry Fink, who had also pulled out of SAUDI ARABIA, hit the nail on the head that the fact that there are issues in the press, does not mean that Black Rock must run away from SAUDI ARABIA, but rather that Black Rock should run to SAUDI ARABIA and invest because what Black Rock was most frightened of are things that Black Rock did not want to talk about. In my opinion, he was obviously eluding to the negative publicity SAUDI ARABIA had received since Jamal Khashoggi’s death while acknowledging that Black Rock should have allowed the due process of the investigation to unfold before reaching any preliminary conclusions, given that there are no signs that Crown Prince MBS’s authority has diminished, but rather SAUDI ARABIA continues to be attractive to bankers by sealing a number of high-profile, multibillion dollar transactions since death of Jamal Khashoggi. In my opinion, this situation is just another depiction of the modern geopolitical landscape whereby money talks and bullshit walks, as speaker after speaker complimented SAUDI ARABIA’s future prospects, as Crown Prince MBS has done everything humanly possible to put the Jamal Khashoggi killing behind SAUDI ARABIA, as Crown Prince MBS pushes ahead with his economic plans, while showing no signs that he will ease up on a sweeping crackdown on dissent, despite international pressure. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA will retain its historic principal that an ISLAMIC leadership role is strategically vital for SAUDI ARABIA. However, in my opinion, unlike other ISLAMIC countries in the region, SAUDI ARABIA should reconsider the risk of vilifying nonviolent, political ISLAMIC movements that have gained prominence since the Arab revolutions of 2011, as exploiting ISLAM to settle political scores will ultimately compromise the SAUDI ARABIAN leadership.

IRAQ News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, with 80% of the products on the market in IRAQ being IRANIAN made, if the border closes, it will be an economic crisis for IRAQ. Thus, I was not surprised to see many IRAQIS pushing the IRAQI government to maintain trade relations with IRAN because IRAQ, which shares around 1,450 kilometers of border with IRAN, will be badly hurt by the IRANIAN sanctions. In my opinion, IRAQ relies on IRAN for gas supplies, electricity, water and food such that the U.S. has placed IRAQ in a loser position, as by attempting to cut-off the head of IRAN, the U.S. cut-off the waist of IRAQ, such that although IRAN suffers most without its head, IRAQ is unable to reproduce without its waist. In my opinion, IRAQ will certainly experience shortages of key products if IRAQ complies with all of the U.S. sanctions that could lead to political turmoil at a critical crossroads period in IRAQI politics. Therefore, I was not surprised to see Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, obtain U.S. sanction waivers, based on a clear vision of what IRAQ really needs, which includes IRANIAN natural gas, electricity and other critical trade related products that fuel the IRAQI economy.

Nonetheless, I was not surprised to see the deadly protests continuing to rage in IRAQ over the lack of basic services and government corruption as IRAQI security forces were bracing for new rounds of violent protests. In my opinion, intermittent electricity availabilities, undrinkable water, unemployment and frustrations with the political system will certainly result in more IRAQI protests. In my opinion, it is easier said than done for IRAQI security forces to protect and facilitate peaceful demonstrations when frustrated IRAQI populace hurl stones and Molotov cocktails at local IRAQI government buildings and IRAQI security forces. Furthermore, tensions were once again high in IRAQ this week, amid speculations among IRAQI officials that the U.S. will begin to draw down the 5,200 U.S. military personnel based in IRAQ. In my opinion, in view of the defeat of ISIS on the ground in late 2017, and subsequent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a complete withdrawal from SYRIA, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. will withdraw from IRAQ. However, in my opinion, U.S. President Donald Trump will stick to his guns, as he has been extremely vocal that the U.S. has spent over US$ 7 Trillion in the MIDDLE EAST, with nothing to show for it, such that he has long favoured seizing IRAQ’s oil, while at a minimum IRAQ will have to renegotiate business relationships with the U.S. in order to warrant future U.S. involvement in IRAQ.

Thus, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIAN Crown Prince MBS offer of full support for IRAQ’s continued security, to fill the void left behind by a potential U.S. withdrawal from IRAQ, is not surprising. In my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA is courting IRAQ as part of a combined effort with the U.S. to stem the growing regional influence of IRAN, while IRAQ is seeking economic benefits from closer ties with SAUDI ARABIA. Furthermore, in my opinion, SAUDI ARABIA which is of a majority SUNNI Muslim background is the perfect financial backer for SUNNI Muslim parts of IRAQ, which bore the brunt of the fighting during the war against ISIS, but that now seem to be underfunded by the SHIA-led central government in IRAQ, as the budget appears to be lacking to help the liberated SUNNI Muslim areas. Furthermore, in regards to this week’s turmoil, as IRAQ finds itself caught in the crossfire as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to revert U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East by an eventual complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, it is my opinion that IRAQIS will no longer be able to blame interference by the U.S. for exacerbating IRAQ’s internal problems. However, in my opinion, the impending U.S. withdrawal, will likely trigger ISIS fighters fleeing SYRIA attempting to regroup in areas they once controlled in northern and western IRAQ.

In regards the announcement by IRAQI President Barham Salih that foreign ISIS fighters would be tried under IRAQI law, such that they could be handed death sentences for acts of terrorism, if found guilty of killing IRAQIS, as IRAQI law allows for capital punishment, ISIS fighters who committed atrocities should be executed accordingly as their actions were committed without any human decency like savage wild animals without any mercy. That is, with at least 200 mass graves containing up to 12,000 victims discovered in IRAQ, IRAQ continues to struggle to emerge from the psychological damage caused by the four-year battle with ISIS militants. In my opinion, with ISIS in IRAQ killing almost 33,000 civilians, with more than 55,000 injured, it is critical to identity the victims in order to aid the recovery process for their families. However, in my opinion, this week it appears that IRAQ’s military wants to symbolically close the ISIS book with its announcement that it is granting a reward to anyone with information related to senior ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, whereby any individual with intelligence that could result in the detention of the leader of the ISIS terrorist group will be receiving a reward of USD 25 million.

In regards to IRAQI Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi making his first visit to SAUDI ARABIA after SAUDI ARABIA reopened its consulate in Baghdad, IRAQ and announced $ 1 billion in aid for IRAQ, Adil Abdul-Mahdi obviously went to SAUDI ARABIA with a large delegation, including officials and businessmen, with trade billed as a prime focus of the discussions between the two largest oil producers in the MIDDLE EAST. In my opinion, the 13 agreements signed in areas such as trade, energy and political cooperation, set the precedent that although the two countries have historically been at odds with each other ever since the IRAQI invasion of KUWAIT in 1990, SAUDI ARABIA has wooed IRAQ as part of an effort to stem the growing influence of IRAN in the region. Thus, in my opinion, the new government in IRAQ is walking a tightrope between appeasing IRAN, the dominant power in IRAQ, while capitalizing on new opportunities from Arab Gulf states with U.S. alliances, such as SAUDI ARABIA. In my opinion, this week’s However, in my opinion, it still remains unclear whether the IRAQI government does in fact control the IRAQI military, as large contingencies of IRAQI military troops, crossed into western IRAN in its third week of horrendous flooding in order to provide much needed aid relief. In my opinion the PMU which is an IRAQI, state-sponsored, majority-SHIITE, umbrella organization composed of about 40 militia groups, for which the original purpose was to combat the emergence of ISIS, may in theory have now become equivalent in power to the actual IRAQI military, although in substance many IRAQIS believe the PMU is still controlled indirectly by IRAN. In my opinion, it appears that these IRAQI militias responded to the request of Major General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the IRANIAN IRGC forces, who report directly to IRANIAN Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, Major General Qassem Suleimani has been IRAN’s instrument in bringing IRAQ under IRAN’s control, as he usually oversees all IRGC operations outside IRAN, but on April 5, the IRGC announced that he would be overseeing the relief efforts in IRAN over the next several months. However, in my opinion, these SHIITE fighters from IRAQ under the banner of the PMU acted without permission from the IRAQI government, as the IRAQI government does not seem to have formally authorized these IRANIAN forces to leave IRAQ. Thus, in my opinion, it appears that IRAN still controls much of the PMU in substance, even though the PMU is now in theory part of the IRAQI military, as it appeared strange that IRAQI soldiers were helping in IRAN, while IRAQ itself suffers from the same flooding issues.

SYRIA News – THE ROCK’s Opinions

In my opinion, although RUSSIA’s worries about AL-QAEDA linked terrorist groups based in IDLIB are legitimate, a full-scale military attack is not the way to deal with this situation as it will certainly put the lives of all innocent civilians at risk and create a humanitarian crisis. Thus, TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to receive full credit for being able to negotiate a ceasefire deal with RUSSIA to spare IDLIB from disastrous consequences for the time being. In my opinion, RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin is by far the best negotiator currently in the region, who always seems to be able to remain cool, calm and collected, as he once again made the right strategic decision to hold back the SAA and IRANIANS from engaging in a full fledge military assault on IDLIB that in my opinion will have disastrous consequences for all parties.

However, in my opinion, although RUSSIA blames TURKEY by claiming that HTS is using IDLIB as a base to launch attacks against SAA forces, I believe that controlling the HTS group is an impossible mission. Therefore, in my opinion, the rise of HTS in IDLIB has given RUSSIA and the SAA a strong pretext for an assault, although the U.N. warns that such an assault could trigger this century’s worst humanitarian crisis, as IDLIB is home to an estimated 3 million people. Nonetheless, the SAA seems to be pushing ahead with its military operations to retake the strategic M5 highway that connects the provincial capitals of IDLIB, HAMA and ALEPPO. Thus, it is not surprising to see the de-escalation zone in SYRIA witnessing ongoing and large-scale cease-fire violations by multiple parties. In my opinion, both TURKEY and RUSSIA continue to manoeuvre diplomatically and militarily to head off a confrontation over IDLIB, as everybody knows that the potential collapse of the de-escalation zone risks creating the largest humanitarian crisis in the history of the SYRIAN civil war. In my opinion, the current pattern of ceasefire violations seriously threatens the viability of the de-escalation zone, due to raging escalations in violence, as the pattern of attacks in IDLIB, particularly from the Bashar al-Assad regime, targeting communities near the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, consisting of both urban centers and rural communities, seem to be of little military or strategic value, other than easy targets.

Meanwhile, in regards to escalation of tensions in recent months between ISRAEL and IRAN, I am not surprised to see ISRAEL continuing to look to RUSSIA for help to protect ISRAEL from IRAN’s presence in SYRIA to prevent IRAN from gaining a permanent foothold in SYRIA. In my opinion, ISRAEL will not back down from its position that IRANIANS want to stay in SYRIA, and ultimately take over control of SYRIA, that will be a threat not only to ISRAEL but also for other countries in the region, such that IRANIANS should not be allowed to remain in SYRIA. However, in recent months, IRANIAN forces have pulled back from the Golan Heights that should be welcomed as a positive development, although ISRAEL clearly stated that such a pull back is insufficient, with no compromises or concessions from ISRAEL’s position of a complete withdrawal being necessary. In my opinion, tensions have obviously risen once again since IRANIAN’s were fuming at the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions to an IRANIAN economy already suffering from high unemployment and an IRANIAN Rial currency that has lost around half of its value since April of 2018. The recent sanctions that target IRANIAN purchases of U.S. dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial software and IRAN’s auto sector that took effect seem to reflect the U.S. belief that IRAN will eventually surrender via the pressure tactics of sanctions. However, in my opinion IRAN’s pride runs through the veins of a majority of IRANIANS who would prefer to eat sand and drink sewage water before conceding to U.S. pressure tactics via sanctions.

In my opinion, the U.S. withdrawal from the IRAN nuclear deal has already badly shaken IRAN’s economy, crashing its currency, the IRANAN Rial, such that IRAN will have to choose to either come back to the negotiating table with the U.S. or watch its IRANIAN economy suffer from re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Thus, I was not surprised at U.S. President, Donald Trump warning that the U.S. is developing a new strategy for the war in SYRIA that would focus more heavily on pushing IRAN’s military and its proxy forces out of SYRIA. In my opinion, the new U.S. strategy would probably not involve the U.S. military directly targeting and killing IRANIAN soldiers or IRANIAN proxies, given that the U.S. military only has the right of self-defence authorization in SYRIA, and thus should only strike IRANIAN targets if the U.S. feels threatened. In my opinion, the U.S. plan will likely focus on political and diplomatic efforts to force IRAN out of SYRIA by squeezing SYRIA financially. That is, the U.S. will likely withhold reconstruction aid from areas where IRANIAN and RUSSIAN forces are present and also impose sanctions on RUSSIAN and IRANIAN companies working on reconstruction in SYRIA. Ironically, IRAN seems to be heading in the direction of weathering the storm created by the crippling U.S. sanctions on IRAN’s oil industry that came back into full force during November’ 2018. Therefore, IRAN’s strategy seems to be heading in the direction of maintaining a status-quo arrangement until the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump becomes clearer in terms of whether he will ultimately be elected to serve a second term in 2020.

However, U.S. President, Donald Trump, then seemed to realize that he needed an ally in the Middle East and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Nonetheless, I am not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump, seems to have sided with the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by initially speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty. Furthermore, I was not surprised that U.S. President, Donald Trump did not hide from the U.S. realities that he does not want the U.S. lucrative business relationships with SAUDI ARABIA to change. Hence, in my opinion, the Jamal Khashoggi scandal will shortly come to an end, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS) and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family walking away absolved, as TURKEY has not produced adequate substantive evidence to pin them with the crime, other than an abundance of circumstantial evidence that they ordered the hit as defector rulers of SAUDI ARABIA.

Summary

In summary, I refer to “World Peace Lennon Ivan Style – Part 348” as the belief that IRAQ and SYRIA victories are critical to ISIS decimation, while SYRIAN negotiations must result in peace, while focusing on the new geopolitical realities, whereby tensions between ISRAEL and IRAN represent the biggest concern, as the trigger for a potential Third and Final World War, such that all leaders across the globe must increase their efforts to identify creative diplomatic options to reduce tensions, by considering the appointment of THE ROCK as special envoy to the MIDDLE EAST, as the current situation between ISRAEL and IRAN depicts the new geopolitical realities in the region, whereby U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have realized that he needs an ally in the MIDDLE EAST, and hence the U.S. turned its attention to SAUDI ARABIA, who has been grappling with the KHASHOGGI scandal, whereby there has been an international uproar over the alleged killing of a SAUDI journalist inside the SAUDI ARABIAN consulate in the capital of ISTANBUL, TURKEY, with U.S. President, Donald Trump, initially playing public relations frontman and spin-doctor for the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family by speculating about rogue killers, while insisting that the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, while now being forced to qualify his initial unconditional support with a WOW, as Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, stated that he does not dispute the CIA’s conclusion that Crown Prince MBS was behind the death of Jamal Khashoggi, but his job was to advance U.S. foreign policy interests, while U.S. President Donald Trump made the final judgement call, by ignoring the high level of circumstantial evidence, while giving Crown Prince MBS and the royal SAUDI ARABIAN family the benefit of the doubt, such that blockage by U.S. Congress to move forward on a $ 2 billion arms sale deal, to punish SAUDI ARABIA, could backfire as SAUDI ARABIA can and will go to CHINA and RUSSIA, who would gladly fill the void, hence U.S. Congress should focus its efforts on reducing the need for weapons by mediating a ceasefire between SAUDI ARABIA and the YEMEN Houthi rebels, as opposed to stalling weapon sales to SAUDI ARABIA, as many financiers who initially abandoned SAUDI ARABIAN investment, proved that any reputational concerns about dealing with SAUDI ARABIA have been short lived, as many prominent bankers returned to this week’s SAUDI ARABIAN investment conference, with Black Rock’s chief executive Larry Fink, hitting the nail on the head, that the fact there are issues in the press, does not mean that Black Rock must run away from SAUDI ARABIA, but rather that Black Rock should run to SAUDI ARABIA and invest because what Black Rock was most frightened of are things that Black Rock did not want to talk about, depicting modern realities whereby money talks and bullshit walks, as speaker after speaker complimented SAUDI ARABIA’s future prospects, as Crown Prince MBS has done everything humanly possible to put the Jamal Khashoggi scandal behind SAUDI ARABIA, just like THE ROCK has managed to put the imminent terrorist threat gossip, rumours and hearsay scandal behind, as part of the history of the evolution of THE ROCK’s Web Market.